<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔概述了中央银行在上周连续第三次降息后对劳动力市场的看法，新的就业报告将于周二发布。</p>
<p>鲍威尔在美联储政策制定者投票决定将基准联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的新闻发布会上发言，此次降息是在劳动力市场疲软迹象和美联储双重任务中促进最大就业的部分面临新风险的背景下进行的。</p>
<p>鲍威尔指出，美国劳工统计局（BLS）最近发布的九月份就业报告显示，失业率 “持续上升，达到 4.4%，而且年初的就业增长显著放缓。”</p>
<p>鲍威尔表示：“放缓的很大一部分可能反映了由于移民减少和劳动力参与率下降，劳动力增长的下降，尽管劳动力需求显然也有所减弱。在这个不太活跃且稍显疲软的劳动力市场中，近期就业的下行风险似乎有所上升。”</p>
<p><strong>美联储连续第三次降息，但 “点阵图” 预计 2026 年仅降息一次</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场没有出现急剧下滑的迹象。(Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
<p>美联储的最新决定伴随着经济预测摘要，通常称为 “点阵图”，显示失业率将在 2025 年底上升至 4.5%，然后在明年降至 4.4%。</p>
<p>鲍威尔表示，美联储不预期劳动力市场会出现更急剧的下滑，目前的利率政策接近中性，这应该支持劳动力市场，以防止更显著的恶化。</p>
<p>鲍威尔说：“现在已经降息 75 个基点，并且政策处于广泛的中性合理估计范围内，这将使劳动力市场能够稳定，或者仅仅上升 1 或 2 个十分点。但我们不会看到任何急剧的下滑，而我们也没有看到任何证据表明会出现这种情况。”</p>
<p><strong>鲍威尔表示，降息对挣扎中的住房行业 “影响不大”</strong></p>
<p>鲍威尔指出，自四月以来，工资增长已放缓至每月约 40,000 个，政策制定者认为这些月度就业数据被高估了约 60,000 个——这意味着在此期间，月度就业数据的平均值将为-20,000。</p>
<p>鲍威尔补充道：“我认为这并不特别有争议。实时估计就业增长非常困难，他们并没有统计所有人，他们有一个调查，并且存在某种系统性的高估。我们预期会这样，他们每年修正两次。所以上次修正时，我们认为修正会是八十或九十万……而这正是发生的情况。我们认为这种情况仍在持续。”</p>
<p>两位政策制定者对美联储的降息决定表示异议，主张在经济不确定性，包括通胀前景的情况下保持利率不变。</p>
<p><strong>特朗普表示，沃什和哈塞特是美联储主席人选的主要竞争者</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，在没有劳动力市场恶化迹象的情况下，进一步降息似乎不明智，因为通胀仍然高企。(Brendan McDermid/Reuters)</p>
<p>芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比在一份声明中表示，他 “认为更谨慎的做法是等待更多信息。”</p>
<p>古尔斯比表示：“如果劳动力市场迅速恶化，那将是不同的计算。但我们拥有的大多数数据表明经济增长稳定，劳动力市场仅适度降温，且与以往扩张期的指标相当。可以被描述为 ‘低招聘/低解雇’ 的环境更符合企业应对持续不确定性的情况，而不是传统的商业周期放缓。”</p>
<p>堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德也表示异议，支持保持利率稳定，他写道：“通胀仍然过高，经济显示出持续的动力，尽管劳动力市场降温，但仍然基本保持平衡。”</p>
<p>BLS 计划于周二发布 11 月份的就业报告，LSEG 经济学家预计将显示该月新增 40,000 个就业岗位。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里获取福克斯商业新闻移动版</strong></p>
<p>BLS 表示，由于政府关门影响了其数据收集活动，因此不会发布 10 月份的就业报告，并且在 11 月中旬关门结束后，追溯收集这些数据并不实际。一些可用的 10 月份数据将包含在 11 月份的报告中。</p>

<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔谈到了劳动力市场的放缓，指出失业率上升至 4.4%，就业增长显著放缓。尽管出现这些迹象，鲍威尔拒绝了对劳动力市场急剧下滑的担忧，称当前的利率政策是支持性的。美联储将利率下调 25 个基点，预测到 2025 年失业率将达到 4.5%。两位政策制定者表示反对，倾向于在经济不确定性中维持利率不变。美国劳工统计局将发布 11 月份的就业报告，预计新增就业岗位为 40,000 个</p>

<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell outlined how the central bank is viewing the labor market after it cut interest rates last week for the third straight time, with a fresh jobs report due out on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔概述了中央银行在上周连续第三次降息后对劳动力市场的看法，新的就业报告将于周二发布。</p>
</div><p>Powell spoke at a press conference after Federal Reserve policymakers voted to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, amid signs of a weakening labor market and emerging risks to the half of the Fed's dual mandate that focuses on promoting maximum employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔在美联储政策制定者投票决定将基准联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的新闻发布会上发言，此次降息是在劳动力市场疲软迹象和美联储双重任务中促进最大就业的部分面临新风险的背景下进行的。</p>
</div><p>Powell noted that the most recent jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was released for September and showed that the unemployment rate &#34;continued to edge up, reaching 4.4%, and that job gains had slowed significantly earlier in the year.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔指出，美国劳工统计局（BLS）最近发布的九月份就业报告显示，失业率 “持续上升，达到 4.4%，而且年初的就业增长显著放缓。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months,&#34; Powell said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔表示：“放缓的很大一部分可能反映了由于移民减少和劳动力参与率下降，劳动力增长的下降，尽管劳动力需求显然也有所减弱。在这个不太活跃且稍显疲软的劳动力市场中，近期就业的下行风险似乎有所上升。”</p>
</div><p><strong>FED DELIVERS THIRD STRAIGHT RATE CUT BUT 'DOT PLOT' PROJECTS JUST ONE CUT IN 2026</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美联储连续第三次降息，但 “点阵图” 预计 2026 年仅降息一次</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there aren't signs of a sharp downturn in the labor market. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场没有出现急剧下滑的迹象。(Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
</div><p>The Fed's latest decision was accompanied by a summary of economic projections, commonly known as the &#34;dot plot,&#34; showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% at the end of 2025 before edging down from there to 4.4% next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的最新决定伴随着经济预测摘要，通常称为 “点阵图”，显示失业率将在 2025 年底上升至 4.5%，然后在明年降至 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>Powell said that the Fed doesn't anticipate a sharper downturn in the labor market and the current interest rate policy is close to neutral, which should support the labor market to prevent a more significant deterioration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔表示，美联储不预期劳动力市场会出现更急剧的下滑，目前的利率政策接近中性，这应该支持劳动力市场，以防止更显著的恶化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The idea is that, now with having cut 75 basis points more now, and having policy in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral, that will be a place which will enable the labor market to stabilize or to only tick up 1 or 2 more tenths. But we won't see any kind of a sharper downturn, which we haven't seen any evidence of at all,&#34; the chairman said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔说：“现在已经降息 75 个基点，并且政策处于广泛的中性合理估计范围内，这将使劳动力市场能够稳定，或者仅仅上升 1 或 2 个十分点。但我们不会看到任何急剧的下滑，而我们也没有看到任何证据表明会出现这种情况。”</p>
</div><p><strong>POWELL SAYS RATE CUTS WON'T MAKE 'MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE' FOR STRUGGLING HOUSING SECTOR</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>鲍威尔表示，降息对挣扎中的住房行业 “影响不大”</strong></p>
</div><p>Powell noted that payroll growth has slowed to an average of about 40,000 per month since April and that policymakers see an overstatement of about 60,000 in those monthly jobs numbers – meaning that monthly jobs figures would average -20,000 over that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔指出，自四月以来，工资增长已放缓至每月约 40,000 个，政策制定者认为这些月度就业数据被高估了约 60,000 个——这意味着在此期间，月度就业数据的平均值将为-20,000。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't think this is particularly controversial. It's very difficult to estimate job growth in real time, they don't count everybody, they have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount. We expect it, and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would be eight or nine hundred thousand… and that was exactly what happened. We think that has persisted,&#34; Powell added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔补充道：“我认为这并不特别有争议。实时估计就业增长非常困难，他们并没有统计所有人，他们有一个调查，并且存在某种系统性的高估。我们预期会这样，他们每年修正两次。所以上次修正时，我们认为修正会是八十或九十万……而这正是发生的情况。我们认为这种情况仍在持续。”</p>
</div><p>Two policymakers dissented from the Fed's rate cut decision in favor of leaving interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty over the economy, including the outlook for inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两位政策制定者对美联储的降息决定表示异议，主张在经济不确定性，包括通胀前景的情况下保持利率不变。</p>
</div><p><strong>TRUMP SAYS WARSH, HASSETT ARE LEADING CONTENDERS FOR FED CHAIR PICK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特朗普表示，沃什和哈塞特是美联储主席人选的主要竞争者</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that without signs of the labor market deteriorating, further rate cuts didn't seem prudent with inflation elevated. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，在没有劳动力市场恶化迹象的情况下，进一步降息似乎不明智，因为通胀仍然高企。(Brendan McDermid/Reuters)</p>
</div><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a statement that he &#34;felt the more prudent course would have been to wait for more information.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比在一份声明中表示，他 “认为更谨慎的做法是等待更多信息。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;If the labor market were deteriorating rapidly, it would be a different calculation. But most of the data we have show stable economic growth with a labor market only moderately cooling and with measures comparable to those in previous expansions,&#34; Goolsbee said. &#34;An environment that can be characterized as 'low hiring/low-firing' is more consistent with businesses dealing with continued uncertainty than it is with a conventional business cycle slowdown.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>古尔斯比表示：“如果劳动力市场迅速恶化，那将是不同的计算。但我们拥有的大多数数据表明经济增长稳定，劳动力市场仅适度降温，且与以往扩张期的指标相当。可以被描述为 ‘低招聘/低解雇’ 的环境更符合企业应对持续不确定性的情况，而不是传统的商业周期放缓。”</p>
</div><p>Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also dissented in favor of holding rates steady, writing that &#34;inflation remains too high, the economy shows continued momentum, and the labor market – though cooling – remains largely in balance.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德也表示异议，支持保持利率稳定，他写道：“通胀仍然过高，经济显示出持续的动力，尽管劳动力市场降温，但仍然基本保持平衡。”</p>
</div><p>The BLS is scheduled to release the November jobs report on Tuesday, which LSEG economists project will show 40,000 jobs were added for the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BLS 计划于周二发布 11 月份的就业报告，LSEG 经济学家预计将显示该月新增 40,000 个就业岗位。</p>
</div><p><strong>GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里获取福克斯商业新闻移动版</strong></p>
</div><p>BLS has said that it won't release a jobs report for the month of October, as its data collection activities were adversely affected by the government shutdown, and it wasn't practical to retroactively gather that data once the shutdown ended in mid-November. Some October data that is available will be included in the November report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BLS 表示，由于政府关门影响了其数据收集活动，因此不会发布 10 月份的就业报告，并且在 11 月中旬关门结束后，追溯收集这些数据并不实际。一些可用的 10 月份数据将包含在 11 月份的报告中。</p>
</div>

鲍威尔承认劳动力市场有所放缓，但否认对其急剧下滑的担忧