<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png"/></p>
<p>原油价格延续之前的跌势，降至两个月来的低点，市场对供应过剩和需求增长放缓的担忧持续施压。布伦特原油小幅下跌，当前在关键支撑位 60 美元附近获得支撑。与此同时，WTI 原油价格降至自 10 月 21 日以来的最低水平，报 56.41 美元。随着备受期待的美国非农就业数据和消费者物价指数（CPI）数据的发布，美元的高波动性预计将蔓延至以美元计价的原油市场。</p>
<h2>原油价格能降到多低？</h2>
<p>由于供应过剩的担忧和疲软的需求前景，原油价格仍然面临卖压，这种市场情绪预计将在未来一年继续主导市场。实际上，可能的反弹预计将是修正性质，而不是趋势反转的开始。</p>
<p>尽管如此，某些因素使得这种看跌的前景变得复杂。首先，中国一直在大量囤积石油库存；这一趋势预计将在 2026 年继续。根据花旗集团的预测，库存的囤积速度预计将从每日报价 80 万桶增加到 90 万桶。</p>
<p>虽然这一速度将有助于缓解全球石油市场面临的供应过剩，但这并不一定意味着需求增长的提升。事实上，作为主要进口国和原油消费国，需求增长预计将在 2026 年中期之前保持疲软，约为每日报价 15 万桶。</p>
<p>阅读更多：随着需求疲软，中国经济放缓在 11 月加剧</p>
<p>此外，国际能源署（IEA）改善了对 2026 年的供需前景。在其最新的月度报告中，该机构现在预计 2026 年供应将超过需求 389 万桶/日，而之前的预测为 409 万桶/日。同时，它改善了对需求增长的前景，指出关税问题减轻和全球经济前景更加光明。</p>
<p>随着原油市场对这些驱动因素进行思考，他们也密切关注定于周二和周四发布的美国非农就业数据和 CPI 数据。随着投资者寻找美联储下一步行动的线索，国债收益率和美元的高度波动性预计将蔓延至以美元计价的原油。</p>
<h2>布伦特原油价格技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="579" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>原油价格图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
<p>全球油价基准布伦特原油在周一小幅下跌，延续了上周的跌势。当前交易价格为每桶 60.44 美元，为 10 月底以来的最低水平。这使其接近超卖区域，RSI 为 36。此外，它处于自 8 月初以来大致形成的看跌通道的边缘。</p>
<p>根据这些技术指标，短期内可能会出现修正。这将使布伦特原油价格从 60 美元的关键支撑区反弹回 61 美元至 64 美元之间的狭窄区间。</p>
<p>然而，即使预计会反弹，我预计该资产在短期内仍将保持在 64.50 美元以下。实际上，若突破该水平将使这一论点失效。相反，若跌破所强调的看跌通道，将给卖方提供重新测试 5 月份低点的机会。</p>
<p>布伦特原油价格分析：在崩盘中关注的水平首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>原油价格因对供应过剩和需求增长放缓的担忧而跌至两个月低点。布伦特原油目前价格为 60 美元，而 WTI 原油为 56.41 美元。市场受到美国非农就业人数和消费者物价指数数据的影响，预计将出现高波动性。中国的库存积累以及国际能源署对 2026 年供应/需求前景的改善是关键因素。技术分析显示布伦特原油可能会出现短期修正，但预计将保持在 64.50 美元以下</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png"/></p>
<p>Crude oil price extended previous losses to a two-month low as concerns over a supply glut and slowing demand growth continue to weigh on the market. Brent oil edged lower to find support at the crucial support level of $60 as at the time of writing. At the same time, WTI oil price declined to its lowest level since 21st October at $56.41. With the highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, the high volatility in the US dollar is set to spread to the dollar-priced crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格延续之前的跌势，降至两个月来的低点，市场对供应过剩和需求增长放缓的担忧持续施压。布伦特原油小幅下跌，当前在关键支撑位 60 美元附近获得支撑。与此同时，WTI 原油价格降至自 10 月 21 日以来的最低水平，报 56.41 美元。随着备受期待的美国非农就业数据和消费者物价指数（CPI）数据的发布，美元的高波动性预计将蔓延至以美元计价的原油市场。</p>
</div><h2>How low can crude oil prices reach?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油价格能降到多低？</h2>
</div><p>Crude oil prices remain under selling pressure as oversupply concerns and a weak demand outlook are set to continue defining the market sentiment into the coming year. Indeed, the possible rebound is expected to be corrective in nature as opposed to the onset of a trend reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于供应过剩的担忧和疲软的需求前景，原油价格仍然面临卖压，这种市场情绪预计将在未来一年继续主导市场。实际上，可能的反弹预计将是修正性质，而不是趋势反转的开始。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, certain elements are clouding this bearish outlook. To start with, China has been hoarding robust oil stockpiles; a trend expected to continue in 2026. According to Citigroup, the stockpiling is set to increase in pace from an average of 800,000 bpd to 900,000 next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，某些因素使得这种看跌的前景变得复杂。首先，中国一直在大量囤积石油库存；这一趋势预计将在 2026 年继续。根据花旗集团的预测，库存的囤积速度预计将从每日报价 80 万桶增加到 90 万桶。</p>
</div><p>While that rate will help cushion the global oil market from the forecasted supply glut, it does not necessarily equate to a boost in demand growth. In fact, demand growth in the leading importer and consumer of crude oil is expected to remain sluggish till mid-2026 at 150,000 bpd.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这一速度将有助于缓解全球石油市场面临的供应过剩，但这并不一定意味着需求增长的提升。事实上，作为主要进口国和原油消费国，需求增长预计将在 2026 年中期之前保持疲软，约为每日报价 15 万桶。</p>
</div><p>Read more: China’s economic slowdown deepens in November as weak demand weigh on growth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读更多：随着需求疲软，中国经济放缓在 11 月加剧</p>
</div><p>Besides, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has improved its supply/demand outlook for 2026. In its latest monthly report, the agency now expects supply to surpass demand by 3.89 million bpd in 2026 compared to its previous forecast of 4.09 million bpd. At the same time, it has improved its demand growth outlook, citing subdued tariff woes and a brighter global economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，国际能源署（IEA）改善了对 2026 年的供需前景。在其最新的月度报告中，该机构现在预计 2026 年供应将超过需求 389 万桶/日，而之前的预测为 409 万桶/日。同时，它改善了对需求增长的前景，指出关税问题减轻和全球经济前景更加光明。</p>
</div><p>As the crude oil market ponders on these drivers, they are also keen on the US nonfarm payrolls and CPI data slated for release on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. As investors look for cues on the Fed’s next move, heightened volatility in the Treasury yields and the US dollar is set to spread to the dollar-priced crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着原油市场对这些驱动因素进行思考，他们也密切关注定于周二和周四发布的美国非农就业数据和 CPI 数据。随着投资者寻找美联储下一步行动的线索，国债收益率和美元的高度波动性预计将蔓延至以美元计价的原油。</p>
</div><h2>Brent crude oil price technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>布伦特原油价格技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>Crude oll price chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The benchmark for global oil prices, Brent, edged lower on Monday; extending losses recorded in the past week. At the time of writing, it was trading at $60.44 a barrel; a level last seen in late October. This has pushed it closer to the oversold territory at an RSI of 36. Besides, it is at the border of the bearish channel that has largely shaped its movements since early August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球油价基准布伦特原油在周一小幅下跌，延续了上周的跌势。当前交易价格为每桶 60.44 美元，为 10 月底以来的最低水平。这使其接近超卖区域，RSI 为 36。此外，它处于自 8 月初以来大致形成的看跌通道的边缘。</p>
</div><p>Based on these technical indicators, a correction is likely in the immediate term. This would have the Brent crude oil price bounce off the crucial support zone of $60 and back to the tight range of between $61 and $64.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据这些技术指标，短期内可能会出现修正。这将使布伦特原油价格从 60 美元的关键支撑区反弹回 61 美元至 64 美元之间的狭窄区间。</p>
</div><p>However, even with the expected rebound, I expect the asset to remain below $64.50 in the short term. Indeed, a move above that level will invalidate this thesis. On the flip side, a move below the highlighted bearish channel will give the sellers a chance to retest May’s lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使预计会反弹，我预计该资产在短期内仍将保持在 64.50 美元以下。实际上，若突破该水平将使这一论点失效。相反，若跌破所强调的看跌通道，将给卖方提供重新测试 5 月份低点的机会。</p>
</div><p>The post Brent crude oil price analysis: Levels to eye amid the crash appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油价格分析：在崩盘中关注的水平首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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布伦特原油价格分析：在暴跌中需要关注的水平