Image Source: 5E Advanced Materials

图片来源：5E Advanced Materials

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The Trump administration has prioritized securing the U.S. critical mineral supply chain through executive orders, federal funding, and international partnerships to reduce reliance on foreign sources, particularly China. Key actions include expanding the official list of critical minerals to 60 items, which now includes copper and uranium, and accelerating domestic mining and processing permits on federal lands. The DOE is also investing nearly $1 billion in domestic production projects and forming a "minerals club" with allies to diversify the global supply chain. Other government funding is available through EXIM, DOW/DOD, and DFC.

特朗普政府优先通过行政命令、联邦资金和国际合作来确保美国关键矿产供应链，以减少对外国来源，特别是中国的依赖。关键行动包括将关键矿物的官方名单扩展到 60 种，其中现在包括铜和铀，并加快在联邦土地上的国内采矿和加工许可证的审批。能源部还在国内生产项目上投资近 10 亿美元，并与盟友组建 “矿物俱乐部”，以多样化全球供应链。其他政府资金可通过 EXIM、DOW/DOD 和 DFC 获得。

As critical minerals and domestic supply chains come into focus, investors are increasingly interested in U.S.-based mining companies. One particularly interesting company is 5E Advanced Materials, a rare U.S.-based producer of boron that is looking to build out a full-scale in-situ leaching (ISL) operation for significant domestic boron production. As the company proves out the reliability and consistency of its production, secures offtake agreements with customers, and finances its ISL mine, I believe the stock could re-rate significantly higher. Boron should also see a favorable environment for demand in the next few years.

随着关键矿物和国内供应链的关注，投资者对美国本土的采矿公司越来越感兴趣。其中一家特别有趣的公司是 5E Advanced Materials，这是一家美国稀有的硼生产商，正在寻求建立一个全规模的原位浸出（ISL）操作，以实现显著的国内硼生产。随着公司证明其生产的可靠性和一致性，确保与客户的采购协议，并为其 ISL 矿山融资，我相信该股票可能会大幅重新定价。未来几年，硼的需求环境也将是有利的。

The Boron Market

硼市场

What is boron and why do we care about it? Boron is a non-metallic element typically used in various advanced materials to increase performance, enhance strength and resist heat, increase conductivity, and increase chemical stability. There are hundreds of diverse applications for boron, and its use is considered irreplaceable. Common applications of boron include glass, insulation, fertilizer, semiconductors, advanced alloys (iron/steel, copper, aluminum), stealth technology, sports equipment, nuclear reactors (control rods and primary coolant neutron poison) and waste storage, lithium batteries, heat shields, neodymium magnets (NdFeB), fertilizer (nonsubstitutable micronutrient), and medicines. As such, the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) Mineral Resources Program (United States Department of the Interior) recently added Boron to the 2025 list of minerals critical to national security.

硼是什么，为什么我们关心它？硼是一种非金属元素，通常用于各种先进材料中，以提高性能、增强强度和耐热性、增加导电性以及提高化学稳定性。硼有数百种不同的应用，其使用被认为是不可替代的。硼的常见应用包括玻璃、绝缘材料、肥料、半导体、先进合金（铁/钢、铜、铝）、隐形技术、运动器材、核反应堆（控制棒和主要冷却剂中子毒物）和废物储存、锂电池、热屏障、钕磁铁（NdFeB）、肥料（不可替代的微量元素）和药物。因此，美国地质调查局（USGS）矿产资源项目（美国内政部）最近将硼添加到 2025 年对国家安全至关重要的矿物名单中。

While consumption estimates vary and change over time, below is a pie chart that shows several key uses of boron. Glass and ceramics production demand a large portion of boron. Boron is used to make borosilicate glass, which is more resistant to thermal shock and chemical corrosion. This makes it ideal for cookware, laboratory equipment, and industrial applications like reinforcement fiberglass, electronic displays, and optical lenses. Semiconductor manufacturing is the dominant (80%) consumer of high-purity boron, where boric acid is used to make boron trichloride, which is used for etching and chemical vapor deposition for doping.

虽然消费估计因时间而异，但以下是一个饼图，显示了硼的几个关键用途。玻璃和陶瓷生产对硼的需求占据了很大一部分。硼用于制造耐热冲击和化学腐蚀的硼硅酸盐玻璃。这使其非常适合用于炊具、实验室设备以及工业应用，如增强玻璃纤维、电子显示器和光学镜头。半导体制造是高纯度硼的主要（80%）消费者，其中硼酸用于制造三氯化硼，后者用于刻蚀和化学气相沉积以进行掺杂。

Boron Consumption Pie Chart

硼消费饼图

Boron production currently operates in a near-oligopoly—two entities control 85% of boron supply: Turkey's Eti Maden and Rio Tinto's (OTCMKTS: RTNTF) U.S. Borax. 60% of the total boron supply is produced by Eti Maden, which is a Turkish government entity. This means that the United States may be reliant on Turkey if it wants to expand onshore chip manufacturing or produce its own boron carbide. In fact, the Department of Defense is actively investing in domestic boron-carbide capacity, as China currently supplies 80% of boron carbide globally. For investors, that policy backdrop usually translates into faster permits, concessional funding, and strategic offtakes for credible new entrants such as 5E.

目前，硼的生产几乎处于寡头垄断状态——两个实体控制着 85% 的硼供应：土耳其的 Eti Maden 和 Rio Tinto（OTCMKTS: RTNTF）的美国硼。Eti Maden 生产了 60% 的总硼供应，作为一个土耳其政府实体。这意味着如果美国想要扩大本土芯片制造或生产自己的碳化硼，可能会依赖土耳其。事实上，国防部正在积极投资于国内碳化硼的能力，因为中国目前占全球碳化硼供应的 80%。对于投资者来说，这种政策背景通常意味着更快的许可证审批、优惠资金和对 5E 等可信新进入者的战略采购。

On the other hand, the United States has Rio Tinto’s (previously U.S. Borax) operations in California, but the future of U.S. Borax is uncertain. Rio Tinto’s (NYSE: RIO) U.S. Borax (RTB Boron) division suffered a reserve downgrade in 2018, and it is estimated that their costs have increased about 60% since 2017. Additionally, their minerals division (Borates and Iron & Titanium businesses) are undergoing a strategic review, and analysts expect the borates and titanium businesses to be divested. Rio’s California borate mine is the largest production site in the world, and 5E could take up this demand, presumably with better costs.

另一方面，美国在加利福尼亚州拥有 Rio Tinto（之前是美国硼）的运营，但美国硼的未来尚不确定。Rio Tinto（NYSE: RIO）的美国硼（RTB Boron）部门在 2018 年遭遇储量下调，估计自 2017 年以来其成本已增加约 60%。此外，他们的矿物部门（硼酸盐和铁及钛业务）正在进行战略审查，分析师预计硼酸盐和钛业务将被剥离。Rio 在加利福尼亚的硼矿是世界上最大的生产基地，5E 可能会满足这一需求，假设其成本更具竞争力。

In contrast to Rio Tinto’s U.S. Borax uncertainty, Turkey’s Eti Maden expanded output meaningfully in 2024 (a new Bigadiç facility went live and Turkish borate production was up ~36% YoY through August), underscoring its centrality to the market and production capacity potential.

与 Rio Tinto 的美国硼的不确定性相比，土耳其的 Eti Maden 在 2024 年显著扩大了产量（新的 Bigadiç设施投入使用，土耳其的硼酸盐生产在 8 月同比增长约 36%），突显了其在市场和生产能力潜力中的核心地位。

From 5E Advanced Materials Website

来自 5E Advanced Materials 网站

In conclusion, boron supply is critical for many decarbonization and productivity themes, including insulation and high-performance glass, permanent magnets, semiconductors, agriculture, and nuclear. Supply is also concentrated and slow to add, leading to price inelasticity. This combination arguably sets the stage for a favorable multi-year setup for boron.

总之，硼供应对许多脱碳和生产力主题至关重要，包括绝缘材料和高性能玻璃、永磁体、半导体、农业和核能。供应也高度集中，增加缓慢，导致价格缺乏弹性。这种组合无疑为硼的多年度有利布局奠定了基础。

5E Advanced Materials Summary

5E Advanced Materials 概述

5E Advanced Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: FEAM; ASX: 5EA) is a vertically integrated development-stage company dedicated to reshoring the U.S. boron supply chain through high-purity boric acid production. Its Fort Cady Borate Project in Southern California has begun initial production at pilot scale to demonstrate the output of its in-situ leaching operation for customers, which should help the company ink favorable offtake agreements and obtain financing for its first phase of full-scale operations.

5E Advanced Materials, Inc.（纳斯达克：FEAM；ASX：5EA）是一家垂直整合的开发阶段公司，致力于通过高纯度硼酸的生产来重塑美国硼供应链。其位于南加州的 Fort Cady 硼项目已开始初步生产，以展示其原位浸出操作的产出，这将有助于公司签署有利的采购协议并为其第一阶段的全规模运营获得融资。

5E had a difficult history as a public company. Originating from a 2017 Australian IPO, 5E listed on Nasdaq in March 2022, but faced turbulence, moving through three prior CEOs during current CEO Paul Weibel's CFO tenure, including an ex-Honeywell (Nasdaq: HON) executive who was ousted shortly after signing an August 2022 $60 million convertible note that destroyed shareholder value, amid EPA permit delays. Certain major shareholders stabilized the firm by acquiring debt in a January 2024 restructuring, slashing conversion prices from $16.90/share to $1.50/share and finally launching pilot mining (in-situ leaching) operations. Full note equitization by Christmas of 2024 gave the lenders 85% ownership, which was subsequently diluted to 75% via a May 2025 placement as well as a summer equity raise catalyzed by the company’s pre-feasibility study (PFS) publication. Since Weibel took over the CEO role in June 2024, a refreshed board including Curtis L. Hebert, and new hires including executives with borates experience, have brought the company another chance and a fresh start, albeit with a new investor base.

5E 作为一家上市公司经历了艰难的历史。起源于 2017 年的澳大利亚首次公开募股，5E 于 2022 年 3 月在纳斯达克上市，但面临动荡，在现任首席执行官 Paul Weibel 担任首席财务官期间经历了三位前首席执行官的更替，其中包括一位前霍尼韦尔（Nasdaq: HON）高管，他在签署 2022 年 8 月的 6000 万美元可转换票据后不久被解雇，该票据在环保局许可证延迟的情况下摧毁了股东价值。某些主要股东通过在 2024 年 1 月的重组中收购债务来稳定公司，将转换价格从每股 16.90 美元削减至每股 1.50 美元，并最终启动了试点采矿（原位浸出）操作。到 2024 年圣诞节前，全部票据股权化使贷方拥有 85% 的股份，随后通过 2025 年 5 月的配售以及由公司预可行性研究（PFS）发布催化的夏季股权融资稀释至 75%。自 2024 年 6 月 Weibel 接任首席执行官以来，包含 Curtis L. Hebert 在内的新董事会和包括具有硼酸盐经验的高管在内的新员工为公司带来了另一个机会和新的开始，尽管投资者基础发生了变化。

All the prior hardships aside, 5E has an American boron project nearing full-scale production that, if de-risked, can command a premium as it is a sovereign critical minerals producer and is aiming to supply high-purity boric acid. On top of this, boron suppliers appear to be set up for industry tailwinds, and 5E may have the only scalable domestic source of boron.

尽管经历了之前的种种困难，5E 拥有一个接近全面生产的美国硼项目，如果风险得到控制，可以获得溢价，因为它是一个主权关键矿物生产商，旨在供应高纯度的硼酸。此外，硼供应商似乎正处于行业顺风之中，而 5E 可能是唯一一个可扩展的国内硼源。

5E Boron Production Investment Snapshot

5E 硼生产投资快照

New Process Operations

新工艺操作

The company’s value is expected to be bolstered by improved process technologies, including chilled crystallization instead of evaporative crystallization of boric acid. The company’s CEO, Paul Weibel, explained these improvements on the Q4 2024 earnings call.

公司的价值预计将通过改进的工艺技术得到提升，包括采用冷却结晶而非蒸发结晶法来生产硼酸。公司首席执行官 Paul Weibel 在 2024 年第四季度的财报电话会议上解释了这些改进。

“Two meaningful changes we have incorporated into our commercial design include a change to the method of crystallization and the temperature of our mine water injection solution. Since commencing mining operations in January 2024, we now have a higher degree of confidence in the resource and our achievable head grade. Further, we believe we can increase our head grade to higher levels by increasing the temperature of our mining solution. This increase in our solution temperatures will also decrease residence time, leading to a more efficient process. Essentially, our data has determined that it is less expensive and more efficient to heat the solution compared to blowing off and evaporating water. This has provided us the opportunity to modify our crystallization method from evaporative to chilled crystallization. Chilled crystallization has multiple benefits that are worth highlighting. First, the amount of energy required will be much less. And initial energy balance estimates a 60% reduction in natural gas consumption relative to evaporative crystallization, which will drive a lower structural OpEx. Further, this provides us with the opportunity to use less Hastelloy steel in our crystallizer design, which will in turn reduce the overall capital cost by utilizing less expensive materials of construction. Another area of optimization is our mine plan, where we believe we can reduce the overall levels of sustaining CapEx up to a factor of 10 by implementing horizontal wells and sidetracks. Our horizontal well program has been externally vetted and to increase confidence levels, we plan to test horizontal wells in the upcoming fiscal year. Additionally, we continue to critically examine our potential byproduct credits. We have confirmed lithium chloride exists in our solution today, and we are monitoring the increases in concentrations of lithium and calcium to determine the optimal recovery technology. Finally, we continue to investigate calcium chloride and assess this as a byproduct relative to gypsum, and we are actively looking to explore partnerships with existing producers and technology providers.”

“我们在商业设计中引入的两个重要变化包括结晶方法的改变和矿水注入溶液的温度。自 2024 年 1 月开始采矿以来，我们对资源和可实现的头矿品位有了更高的信心。此外，我们相信通过提高矿水溶液的温度，可以将头矿品位提高到更高的水平。溶液温度的提高也将减少停留时间，从而提高工艺效率。基本上，我们的数据表明，加热溶液的成本更低且效率更高，而不是通过蒸发水来提高浓度。这使我们有机会将结晶方法从蒸发结晶改为冷却结晶。冷却结晶有多个值得强调的好处。首先，所需的能量将大大减少。初步的能量平衡估计，相较于蒸发结晶，天然气消耗将减少 60%，这将降低结构性运营支出。此外，这使我们能够在结晶器设计中使用更少的哈氏合金钢，从而通过使用更便宜的建筑材料降低整体资本成本。另一个优化领域是我们的矿山计划，我们相信通过实施水平井和侧钻，可以将整体维持资本支出降低至 10 倍。我们的水平井计划已通过外部评估，为了提高信心，我们计划在即将到来的财政年度测试水平井。此外，我们继续认真审查潜在的副产品信用。我们已确认锂氯化物今天存在于我们的溶液中，并且我们正在监测锂和钙浓度的增加，以确定最佳的回收技术。最后，我们继续调查氯化钙，并评估其作为副产品相对于石膏的价值，同时积极寻求与现有生产商和技术提供商的合作。”

Instead of heating the produced solution to boil off water and increase boric acid concentration before crystallization, the company can produce a hot solution that is high enough in boric acid (BA) concentration to crystallize via chilling (where BA is precipitated as a solid when BA solubility decreases with decreasing temperature). These production process improvements are low risk in my opinion (as opposed to the moderate-risk production-scale leaching), but are assumed in the company’s PFS. Byproduct production viability (i.e. lithium and calcium salt) are not included, and company recently decided to produce calcium chloride in addition to gypsum as a byproduct to improve their project economics. The incorporation of calcium chloride (CaCL2) as a by-product in addition to gypsum provides greater optionality to maximize returns. To produce calcium chloride, 5E will utilize more HCl in its manufacturing process. Depending on the raw material input costs of sulfuric acid versus HCl, and the sales price of gypsum and CaCl2, there is optionality in the process to have optimized economics based on market prices of raw material inputs and by-product revenues.

公司可以生产一种高浓度的热溶液，而不是加热生产的溶液以蒸发水分并提高硼酸浓度，然后再进行结晶（在温度降低时，硼酸的溶解度降低，硼酸以固体形式沉淀）。在我看来，这些生产工艺的改进风险较低（与中等风险的生产规模浸出相比），但在公司的预可行性研究中已被假定。副产品生产的可行性（即锂和钙盐）未被包括在内，公司最近决定在改善项目经济性方面，除了石膏外还生产氯化钙作为副产品。将氯化钙（CaCL2）作为副产品引入，除了石膏外，提供了更大的选择性以最大化回报。为了生产氯化钙，5E 将在其制造过程中使用更多的盐酸。根据硫酸与盐酸的原材料输入成本，以及石膏和氯化钙的销售价格，工艺中存在优化经济性的选择，基于原材料输入和副产品收入的市场价格。

Valuation

估值

5E Advanced Materials’ project has a $725m NPV7 (pre tax IRR of 19.2%) according to their August 2025 PFS, which only takes into account phase 1 (production of 136.5k ST BA) of their multiphase production operation. Phase 1 has a ~US$469M after-tax NPV7 with a post tax IRR of 16%. Phase 2, on the other hand, is expected to add another 180,000 short tons of boric acid, along with 2,200 short tons of lithium carbonate. To simplify, let’s assume phase 2 roughly doubles the mine’s value.

根据他们 2025 年 8 月的预可行性研究，5E Advanced Materials 的项目具有 7.25 亿美元的净现值（税前内部收益率为 19.2%），仅考虑其多阶段生产操作的第一阶段（生产 136,500 短吨硼酸）。第一阶段的税后净现值约为 4.69 亿美元，税后内部收益率为 16%。另一方面，第二阶段预计将增加另外 180,000 短吨的硼酸，以及 2,200 短吨的碳酸锂。为了简化，假设第二阶段大致将矿山的价值翻倍。

In terms of multiples, it is reasonable to use a P/NPV ratio of 0.2-0.5x for exploration stage (mineral reserve estimates, preliminary economic analysis (PEA)), 0.5-0.8x for feasibility studies (pre-feasibility study (PFS), feasibility study (FS)) and construction, and 0.8-1.5x for production stages.

在倍数方面，对于勘探阶段（矿藏储量估算，初步经济分析（PEA）），使用 0.2-0.5 倍的 P/NPV 比率是合理的；对于可行性研究（预可行性研究（PFS），可行性研究（FS））和建设阶段，使用 0.5-0.8 倍；对于生产阶段，使用 0.8-1.5 倍。

Since 5E is still trying to obtain financing for the project, I’ll use a conservative multiple of 0.5x of the $725m NPV for a current value of $362.5 million. Using the current outstanding shares of 22.44 million, that represents a share price of $16.15/share, a target somewhat above analyst estimates of between $7 and $9.25 (Maxim and HC Wainwright, respectively). This is a bit of an aggressive price target for now, but if the company can get on track with financing and construction and effectively mitigate any future delays, I think FEAM shares could be re-rated higher, whereas more delays will de-rate the shares further.

由于 5E 仍在努力为该项目获得融资，我将使用 725 百万美元 NPV 的 0.5 倍的保守倍数，当前价值为 362.5 百万美元。根据当前的流通股数 2244 万股，这代表每股价格为 16.15 美元，目标价略高于分析师估计的 7 到 9.25 美元（分别为 Maxim 和 HC Wainwright）。目前这是一个相对激进的价格目标，但如果公司能够顺利进行融资和建设，并有效减轻未来的延误，我认为 FEAM 的股票可能会被重新评估更高，而更多的延误将进一步降低股票价值。

Looking forward, as the company reaches production in several years, investors could value the company either on 1.5x the $725m NPV, or 0.8x the $1.45 billion NPV of the expanded mine (i.e. including Phase 2), for a total value of $1.09-1.16 billion. Assuming shares outstanding inflate to around 40 million at that time, shares could be worth around $29 each. As such, the company could be a near ten-bagger in several years’ time (7.5x). Assuming this takes 5 years, that is a ~50% CAGR in share price. The company also recently released a large increase in its measured and indicated resources, including 170% and 165% increases in H3O3 and LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), and those increases are not reflected in the PFS used for this valuation. With the updated resource, 5E boasts the largest borate resource in the U.S.

展望未来，随着公司在几年内达到生产，投资者可能会以 725 百万美元 NPV 的 1.5 倍或扩展矿山（即包括第二阶段）145 亿美元 NPV 的 0.8 倍来评估公司，总价值为 10.9 亿到 11.6 亿美元。假设届时流通股数膨胀至约 4000 万股，股票可能价值约 29 美元。因此，该公司在几年内可能成为接近十倍的投资（7.5 倍）。假设这需要 5 年时间，股价的年复合增长率约为 50%。公司最近还发布了其测量和指示资源的大幅增加，包括 H3O3 和 LCE（锂碳酸盐当量）分别增加 170% 和 165%，这些增加在用于本次估值的 PFS 中并未反映。根据更新的资源，5E 拥有美国最大的硼矿资源。

Competition

竞争

Boron deposits are very rare, but there are several other sites in progress. There are several other promising, somewhat large projects progressing globally, some of which are in the United States and have also seen governmental support. A table below details some of the future boron producers along with their project’s status and forecasted annual production.

硼矿储量非常稀有，但还有几个其他项目正在进行中。全球有几个其他有前景的、相对较大的项目正在推进，其中一些位于美国，并且也得到了政府的支持。下表详细列出了一些未来的硼生产商及其项目状态和预测年产量。


Project Name, Company	Location, Start Date	Status	Forecast Annual Production	Notes
Fort Cady Boron Project (Phase 1) 5E Advanced Materials (Nasdaq: FEAM)	California, USA 2027-2028	Pre-feasibility complete; FEED underway; FID/financing targeted for mid-2026	>136,000 tpa boric acid	Scalable U.S. source; 39.5-year mine life; reserves of 5.4 million short tons boric acid; high-purity
Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project Ioneer Ltd. (Nasdaq: IONR)	Nevada, USA 2028 (initial)	Permitted (Oct 2024); construction financing advancing; leach optimizations	126,700 tpa boric acid (co-product with lithium)	82-year mine life; boron ~25% of revenue; lithium primary (22,400 tpa LCE avg.). $1.37B NPV8 (post-tax), very low on cost curve. Updated to $1.89B on optimization and new mine plan.
Bonnie Claire Lithium-Boron Project Nevada Lithium Resources Inc. (OTCMKTS: NVLHF)	Nye County, Nevada, USA 2028 -2029	PEA completed (Aug 2025); advancing to feasibility	129,000 tpa boric acid (co-product with 62,000 tpa LCE)	61-year mine life; inferred resources expanded (25.6 Mt LCE at 3,085 ppm Li lower zone, Oct 2025); pre-tax NPV $1.2B (2025 PEA at $15,000/t LCE, $700/t boric acid) Low capex (~$450M); boron enhances economics amid critical mineral status.
Piskanja Boron Project Boron One Holdings Inc. (TSXV: BONE.V) (OTCMKTS: ERVFF)	Baljevic, Serbia 2027 -2028	EIA completed (May 2025); advancing exploitation field permitting (Sep 2025 update); bench-scale testing successful (Nov 2024)	258,000 tpa B2O3 concentrate, 25,000 tpa boric acid	16-year mine life; measured resource 1.39 Mt @ 35.59% B2O3. Pre-tax NPV $607M (2022 PEA), IRR 42%; low capex (~$170M); EU/Asia exports.


项目名称，公司	地点，开始日期	状态	预测年产量	备注
Fort Cady Boron Project (Phase 1)
5E Advanced Materials (Nasdaq: FEAM)	美国加利福尼亚州
2027-2028	预可行性完成；FEED 进行中；FID/融资目标为 2026 年中	>136,000 吨/年硼酸	可扩展的美国来源；39.5 年矿山寿命；储量 540 万吨硼酸；高纯度
Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project
Ioneer Ltd. (Nasdaq: IONR)	美国内华达州
2028（初步）	已获许可（2024 年 10 月）；建设融资推进；浸出优化	126,700 吨/年硼酸（与锂共同生产）	82 年矿山寿命；硼约占收入的 25%；锂为主要产品（22,400 吨/年 LCE 平均）。
$1.37B NPV8（税后），成本曲线非常低。优化和新矿计划更新至$1.89B。
Bonnie Claire Lithium-Boron Project
Nevada Lithium Resources Inc.
(OTCMKTS: NVLHF)	美国内华达州奈县
2028-2029	PEA 完成（2025 年 8 月）；推进至可行性	129,000 吨/年硼酸（与 62,000 吨/年 LCE 共同生产）	61 年矿山寿命；推断资源扩大（25.6 百万吨 LCE，锂含量 3,085 ppm，2025 年 10 月）；税前 NPV $1.2B（2025 年 PEA 按$15,000/吨 LCE，$700/吨硼酸）
低资本支出（约$450M）；硼在关键矿物状态下提升经济性。
Piskanja Boron Project
Boron One Holdings Inc.
(TSXV: BONE.V)
(OTCMKTS: ERVFF)	塞尔维亚 Baljevic
2027-2028	EIA 完成（2025 年 5 月）；推进开采场地许可（2025 年 9 月更新）；基准测试成功（2024 年 11 月）	258,000 吨/年 B2O3 浓缩物，25,000 吨/年硼酸	16 年矿山寿命；测量资源 1.39 百万吨 @35.59% B2O3。
税前 NPV $607M（2022 年 PEA），IRR 42%；低资本支出（约$170M）；出口至欧盟/亚洲。

Notably, Ioneer (primarily a lithium company) trades at a $314 million (USD) market cap despite a $996 million loan guarantee from the DOE for Rhyolite Ridge. Ioneer trades around a $300 million market cap (USD). Their relative valuations are comparable.

值得注意的是，Ioneer（主要是一家锂公司）尽管获得了来自 DOE 的 996 百万美元贷款担保，但其市值仍为 3.14 亿美元（USD）。Ioneer 的市值约为 3 亿美元（USD）。它们的相对估值是可比的。

While there is competition, 5E is mainly producing boric acid, which has 1.2Mton global supply currently and is expected to increase at ~4-6% over the next decade, and it appears that modest supply will help alleviate some of that demand growth. Notably, 5E

虽然存在竞争，但 5E 主要生产硼酸，目前全球供应为 120 万吨，预计在未来十年将以约 4-6% 的速度增长，适度的供应似乎将有助于缓解部分需求增长。值得注意的是，5E

Global Boric Acid Supply and Demand Forecast, 5E Advanced Material’s Investor Presentation, October 2025

全球硼酸供应和需求预测，5E Advanced Materials 的投资者演示，2025 年 10 月

The company also cites forecasts for a fairly large supply gap over the next few years as the plethora (hundreds) of use cases for boron demand more and more product and as new project supply lags demand as it comes online.

公司还引用了未来几年内相当大的供应缺口的预测，因为硼的众多（数百个）使用案例对产品的需求越来越多，而新项目的供应滞后于需求。

Forecasted Boron Demand Gap, 5E Advanced Materials Website (Source: Credit Suisse Equity Research)

预测的硼需求缺口，5E Advanced Materials 网站（来源：瑞士信贷股票研究）

Financials

财务

To complete Fort Cady’s Phase 1, it is estimated that the company needs a total of ~$435 million to start operations, but Export-Import (EXIM) Bank of the United States, which serves to help finance critical projects like this boron production facility, signed a non-binding letter of intent to finance $285 million of this project. Presumably, the company needs to secure offtake agreement which should help it obtain debt financing for the project buildout as product demand is proven. In other words, offtake agreements help reduce risk for lenders for debt financing. But customers signing offtake agreements will want to know that the project can be financed and built. So both of these items (offtake agreements, debt financing) need to kind of happen in tandem. The EXIM letter of intent, in my opinion, is a nice vote of confidence for the company that may help the commercial/financial agreements come together.

为了完成福特凯迪的第一阶段，预计公司需要大约 4.35 亿美元来启动运营，但美国进出口银行（EXIM）签署了一份非约束性意向书，计划为该项目融资 2.85 亿美元，该项目是一个关键的硼生产设施。可以推测，公司需要确保签署购销协议，这将有助于其获得项目建设的债务融资，因为产品需求得到了证明。换句话说，购销协议有助于降低债权人的债务融资风险。但签署购销协议的客户希望了解该项目是否能够获得融资和建设。因此，这两个事项（购销协议、债务融资）需要同步进行。在我看来，EXIM 的意向书是对公司的良好信心投票，可能有助于商业/金融协议的达成。

5E has -$41.5 million in TTM operating income, with -$29.4 million in TTM net income, according to their most recent 10-Q (ending September 30th, 2025). A lot of this is depreciation and amortization, so their cash burn is currently closer to $4-5 million per quarter. While this is a concerning burn rate because the company’s cash position is only $5.5 million, as long as management secures bankable offtake agreements in a timely manner, the cash burn should not be a grave concern. Additionally, management has options at $6.72/share, and all the warrants are exercisable at ~$17-18. Therefore, there is no current option or warrant overhang, and management has significant incentives aligned with shareholder value.

根据他们最近的 10-Q（截至2025年9月30日），5E 的 TTM 营业收入为-4150 万美元，TTM 净收入为-2940 万美元。这其中很大一部分是折旧和摊销，因此他们目前的现金消耗接近每季度 400 万到 500 万美元。虽然这是一个令人担忧的消耗率，因为公司的现金状况仅为 550 万美元，但只要管理层及时确保可融资的购销协议，现金消耗就不应该是一个严重的问题。此外，管理层的期权为每股 6.72 美元，所有认股权证的行使价在约 17-18 美元。因此，目前没有期权或认股权证的负担，管理层与股东价值之间有显著的激励一致性。

Risks

风险

Financing is a major risk to this project, as it is for any small company looking to start up major mining operations. 5E is aiming to secure commercial offtake agreements at prices above the market, presumably due to their location and their boric acid purity.

融资是该项目的主要风险，就像任何小公司希望启动大型采矿操作一样。5E 的目标是以高于市场的价格确保商业购销协议，这可能与他们的位置和硼酸的纯度有关。

Additionally, their technical report assumes a higher head grade of boron than they are currently producing. This head grade will need to be improved to near 9.5% for the company to reach its full value. This can be achieved by heating the injected solution above ground or by injecting steam into the formation. Both options address the endpoint of the pregnant leachate solution exiting the ground at 160 degrees Fahrenheit, as increased temperature allows for higher total solubility of solute such as boron. This should be achievable, but still needs to be done and is therefore a risk.

此外，他们的技术报告假设的硼头级品位高于他们目前的生产水平。为了使公司实现其全部价值，这一头级品位需要提高到接近 9.5%。这可以通过在地面加热注入的溶液或向地层注入蒸汽来实现。这两种选择都解决了孕液在 160 华氏度下从地面排出的终点，因为提高温度可以提高溶质（如硼）的总溶解度。这应该是可以实现的，但仍然需要完成，因此仍然存在风险。

Section 14.2.1 of Fort Cady August 2025 PFS

福特凯迪 2025 年 8 月 PFS 第 14.2.1 节

The company’s leaching process is also a moderate risk, in my opinion. While this process could be considered straightforward, investors will likely not consider it derisked until high-volume, high-concentration boric acid is consistently produced. After all, other in-situ leaching operations have encounteredd difficulties. Gunnison Copper’s (OTCMKTS: GCUMF) in-situ leaching operation (copper production) ran into issues with CaSO4 clogging their wells since they were primarily using H2SO4 acid (which adds more sulfate into the well), and their geology had heterogeneous fractures, faults, and variable permeability in sandstone aquifer, which resulted in a poor sweep efficiency. When sulfuric acid H2SO4 reacts with most carbonates, it produces a metal sulfate, carbon dioxide CO2, and water H2O. However, the reaction can be hindered with certain carbonates, like calcium carbonate CaCO3, because an insoluble layer of CaSO4 (gypsum) forms, which can "armors" the remaining carbonate and stops the reaction from completing.

在我看来，公司的浸出过程也是一个中等风险。虽然这个过程可以被认为是简单的，但投资者可能不会认为它已经去风险化，直到高产、高浓度的硼酸被持续生产。毕竟，其他原位浸出操作遇到了困难。甘尼森铜业（OTCMKTS: GCUMF）的原位浸出操作（铜生产）在使用 H2SO4 酸（这会向井中添加更多硫酸盐）时遇到了 CaSO4 堵塞井的问题，他们的地质结构存在异质性断裂、断层和砂岩含水层的可变渗透性，导致了较差的扫掠效率。当硫酸 H2SO4 与大多数碳酸盐反应时，会产生金属硫酸盐、二氧化碳 CO2 和水 H2O。然而，某些碳酸盐（如碳酸钙 CaCO3）可能会妨碍反应，因为会形成不溶性 CaSO4（石膏）层，这会 “保护” 剩余的碳酸盐，阻止反应完成。

Additionally, the generated CO2 can impair flowback. Due to these acid-consuming issues which impeded flowback that was amplified by complicated stratigraphy, Gunnison later pivoted to open pit mining but retains its permits for in situ recovery as an option.

此外，生成的 CO2 可能会影响回流。由于这些消耗酸的问题妨碍了回流，并且由于复杂的地层放大了这一问题，甘尼森后来转向露天采矿，但保留了原位回收的许可证作为选项。

On the contrary, 5E’s Fort Cady Boron project is a simpler stratigraphy (less faulting), which supports better fluid distribution and expected sweep efficiency. 5E also uses HCl instead of CaSO4, which should produce calcium chlorides in solution as opposed to gypsum (CaSO4). With the Fort Cady’s simpler stratigraphy, its possible that if there is any gypsum produced (there shouldn’t be), it simply flows back without causing problems. Existing sulfates in the well should be highly insoluble, resulting in minimal sulfate dissolved in the pregnant leachate solution. General in-situ leaching risks, such as aquifer contamination or regulatory delays are still relevant.

相反，5E 的福特凯迪硼项目具有更简单的地层（较少的断层），这支持更好的流体分布和预期的扫掠效率。5E 还使用 HCl 而不是 CaSO4，这应该在溶液中产生氯化钙，而不是石膏（CaSO4）。由于福特凯迪的地层更简单，如果产生任何石膏（不应该有），它可能会简单地回流而不会造成问题。井中现有的硫酸盐应该是高度不溶的，导致孕液中溶解的硫酸盐极少。一般的原位浸出风险，如含水层污染或监管延误仍然是相关的。

Conclusion

结论

I am mostly interested in silver (and gold) mining companies as we approach what could be a price outbreak for silver and gold, and a subsequent massive run for associated, high quality junior miners. However, in the U.S., critical minerals are becoming an increased focus for our domestic supply chain, and aside from discerning whether specifically boron is a mineral one wants to invest in, the type of due diligence required to analyze this opportunity is similar to a PEA-staged precious metals explorer. While FEAM trades under 20% of its post-tax, Phase 1 NPV and at below 15% of its pre-tax NPV, despite reaching an initial smaller-scale commercial stage, I consider the company attractively valued. As operations improve and expand, I expect the company to trade at a higher percentage of its NPV, with the optionality of an increased multiple as they fill the void in the fragile and unbalanced boron supply chain.

随着我们接近可能的银和黄金价格爆发，以及随之而来的高质量小型矿业公司的大规模上涨，我主要对银（和黄金）采矿公司感兴趣。然而，在美国，关键矿物正日益成为我们国内供应链的重点，除了判断硼是否是一个值得投资的矿物外，分析这一机会所需的尽职调查类型与 PEA 阶段的贵金属勘探者类似。尽管 FEAM 的交易价格低于其税后第一阶段净现值的 20%，并且低于其税前净现值的 15%，尽管已经达到初步的小规模商业阶段，我认为该公司的估值具有吸引力。随着运营的改善和扩展，我预计公司将以更高的净现值百分比进行交易，并有可能在填补脆弱和不平衡的硼供应链的同时提高倍数。

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