<p>上个月保证金债务达到了新高，并有潜力在接下来的几个月继续上升，但前提是股市多头能够在即将到来的抛售中捍卫主要指数的重要支撑位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-1-2-1024x657.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-1-2-1024x657.png"/></p>
<p>FINRA 的保证金债务在 11 月份创下新高，环比增加 307 亿美元，达到 1.21 万亿美元。这是连续第六个月保证金债务超过一万亿美元。从 4 月份的底部 8506 亿美元来看，增长了 42.8%。</p>
<p>图表 1 使用了纳斯达克综合指数的同比变化，该指数提前六个月，并结合了保证金债务的 12 个月滚动平均值。历史上，这两者之间有着密切的相关性。如果这种相关性得以维持，最近的保证金债务上升趋势可能会在接下来的几个月继续，而要实现这一点，主要股指上的重要支撑位必须得到捍卫。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>如果这种情况发生，罗素 2000 指数与保证金债务的相关性略高于其大型同行，如标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克 100，可能会在最近的动能基础上继续上涨。</p>
<p>上周，小型股指数突破了 2540 点，在该水平上犹豫了几周。周一和周二，卖方再次出现在该水平，但从周三开始，买盘压倒了卖盘，周五达到了 2596 的新日内高点，但在开盘几分钟后达到峰值并收于 2551 点。本周一，罗素 2000 在开盘几分钟内触及了当日高点，收于 2531 点。</p>
<p>最近的上涨动能源于四到五周前对 2300 点的积极防守；这个水平代表了主要的水平支撑（图表 2）。从小型股多头的角度来看，这是积极的，但他们同时也未能在此基础上有意义地继续上涨。</p>
<p>目前来看，进一步的疲软是最小阻力的路径。2460 点处有重要支撑。一年多前的 11 月份，罗素 2000 在触及 2466 点后回落。三年前的 11 月份，它在 2459 点反弹后转向下行。今年，在 9 月 18 日，这些高点被突破，日内触及 2470 点。在 2460 点之后，必须拯救的 2300 点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-3-2-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-3-2-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数也存在类似的动态，该指数在 10 月 29 日达到 6920 点。随后的下跌使大型股指数在 11 月 21 日降至 6522 点，随后多头重新控制局面。</p>
<p>本月 5 日，该指数达到了 6896 点。在上周的周三到周五，多头不断攻击 6900 点，但未能成功，周四的 6903 点距离 10 月 29 日的历史高点不足 17 点。现在形成了一个较低的高点（图表 3）。</p>
<p>昨天，标准普尔 500 指数略有压力，收于 6817 点。50 日均线仅相距 53 点，测试该均线似乎迫在眉睫。在 10 月到 11 月的抛售中，50 日均线被突破，指数在下方停留了仅六个交易日，即使多头在 6550 点附近捍卫了水平支撑。如果很快再次测试，可能不会那么幸运。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-4-3-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-4-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>在纳斯达克 100 指数方面，50 日均线已被突破，昨天收于 25067 点，而均线为 25209 点。</p>
<p>最近，这个以科技股为主的指数在 25800 点附近挣扎了几个交易日，包括上周三的 25835 点，这明显低于 10 月 29 日创下的 26182 点历史高点（图表 4）。</p>
<p>从那个高点开始，纳斯达克 100 指数迅速回落 8.9%，在 11 月 21 日的日内低点为 23854 点；当时 50 日均线也被突破，但仅持续了六个交易日。这一次，该指数也可能在此时面临压力，因为日线超买状态正在消退。此外，过去 15 个交易日的日线下布林带平坦，位于 24173 点，接近 11 月 21 日的低点。如果该指数决定测试该低点，必须拯救。200 日均线仍在上升，直到 22621 点才会被测试；该指数在过去七个月中一直保持在该均线之上。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>在 FOMC 会议前，指数朝着 10 月高点反弹</p>
<p>激增的降息预期与支撑的防守导致上周的反弹</p>
<p>多头希望在周五的日内反转中重建动能</p>

<p>股票指数可能面临压力，以解除短期超买状态，因为保证金债务达到 1.21 万亿美元的新高。罗素 2000 和标准普尔 500 在关键水平上显示出阻力迹象，未来可能面临支撑挑战。纳斯达克 100 也面临压力，近期的下跌和超买状态暗示支撑水平可能进一步受到考验。整体趋势表明，市场在应对这些压力时可能会出现波动</p>

<p>Margin debt rose to a fresh high last month and has a potential to keep rising in the next few months, but only if equity bulls manage to defend important support on the major indices in the imminent selloff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月保证金债务达到了新高，并有潜力在接下来的几个月继续上升，但前提是股市多头能够在即将到来的抛售中捍卫主要指数的重要支撑位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-1-2-1024x657.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-1-2-1024x657.png"/></p>
<p>FINRA margin debt hit a new high in November, rising $30.7 billion month-over-month to $1.21 trillion. This was the sixth month in a row of trillion-plus in margin debt. From the April bottom of $850.6 billion, it is up 42.8 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FINRA 的保证金债务在 11 月份创下新高，环比增加 307 亿美元，达到 1.21 万亿美元。这是连续第六个月保证金债务超过一万亿美元。从 4 月份的底部 8506 亿美元来看，增长了 42.8%。</p>
</div><p>Chart 1 uses a year-over-year change in the Nasdaq Composite, which is advanced six months, and a 12-month rolling average of margin debt. Historically, the two have a close correlation. Should it uphold, the recent uptrend in margin debt could continue for the next few months, and for this to happen, important support should be defended on the major equity indices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 1 使用了纳斯达克综合指数的同比变化，该指数提前六个月，并结合了保证金债务的 12 个月滚动平均值。历史上，这两者之间有着密切的相关性。如果这种相关性得以维持，最近的保证金债务上升趋势可能会在接下来的几个月继续，而要实现这一点，主要股指上的重要支撑位必须得到捍卫。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>If this scenario comes to pass, the Russell 2000, which has a slightly higher correlation with margin debt versus its large-cap cousins like the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100, likely builds on its most-recent momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这种情况发生，罗素 2000 指数与保证金债务的相关性略高于其大型同行，如标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克 100，可能会在最近的动能基础上继续上涨。</p>
</div><p>Last week, the small cap index broke out of 2540s, where it hesitated for several weeks. Sellers again showed up at that level on Monday and Tuesday, but bids overwhelmed offers beginning Wednesday, reaching a new intraday high of 2596 on Friday, but only to then peak in the session’s opening minutes and close at 2551. Monday (this week) saw a repeat of that, as the Russell 2000 tagged its session highs in the very opening minutes, closing at 2531.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，小型股指数突破了 2540 点，在该水平上犹豫了几周。周一和周二，卖方再次出现在该水平，但从周三开始，买盘压倒了卖盘，周五达到了 2596 的新日内高点，但在开盘几分钟后达到峰值并收于 2551 点。本周一，罗素 2000 在开盘几分钟内触及了当日高点，收于 2531 点。</p>
</div><p>The most recent up momentum followed aggressive defense of 2300 four to five weeks ago; this level represents major horizontal support (Chart 2). From small-cap bulls’ perspective, this is positive, but they have at the same time been unable to meaningfully build on this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的上涨动能源于四到五周前对 2300 点的积极防守；这个水平代表了主要的水平支撑（图表 2）。从小型股多头的角度来看，这是积极的，但他们同时也未能在此基础上有意义地继续上涨。</p>
</div><p>As things stand, further weakness is the path of least resistance. There is major support at 2460s. More than a year ago in November, the Russell 2000 retreated after ticking 2466. Three years before that, in November 2021, it rallied to 2459 and reversed lower. This year, on 18 September, those highs were taken out, tagging 2470 intraday. After 2460s lies the must-save 2300.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前来看，进一步的疲软是最小阻力的路径。2460 点处有重要支撑。一年多前的 11 月份，罗素 2000 在触及 2466 点后回落。三年前的 11 月份，它在 2459 点反弹后转向下行。今年，在 9 月 18 日，这些高点被突破，日内触及 2470 点。在 2460 点之后，必须拯救的 2300 点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-3-2-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-3-2-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>There are similar dynamics at play on the S&amp;P 500, which peaked on 29 October at 6920. The subsequent drop brought the large cap index to 6522 by November 21st before the bulls took things under control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数也存在类似的动态，该指数在 10 月 29 日达到 6920 点。随后的下跌使大型股指数在 11 月 21 日降至 6522 点，随后多头重新控制局面。</p>
</div><p>On the 5th (this month), the index reached 6896. On Wednesday through Friday last week, bulls kept attacking 6900, but to no avail, with Thursday’s 6903 less than 17 points from the all-time high from 29 October. A lower high is now in place (Chart 3).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月 5 日，该指数达到了 6896 点。在上周的周三到周五，多头不断攻击 6900 点，但未能成功，周四的 6903 点距离 10 月 29 日的历史高点不足 17 点。现在形成了一个较低的高点（图表 3）。</p>
</div><p>Yesterday, the S&amp;P 500 came under slight pressure to close at 6817. The 50-day is only 53 points away, and a test of the average looks imminent. During the October-November selloff, the 50-day was breached, with the index remaining underneath for only six sessions, even as the bulls defended horizontal support at 6550s. They may not be as lucky if a second test occurs soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天，标准普尔 500 指数略有压力，收于 6817 点。50 日均线仅相距 53 点，测试该均线似乎迫在眉睫。在 10 月到 11 月的抛售中，50 日均线被突破，指数在下方停留了仅六个交易日，即使多头在 6550 点附近捍卫了水平支撑。如果很快再次测试，可能不会那么幸运。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-4-3-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chart-4-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>Over on the Nasdaq 100, the 50-day has been breached, closing yesterday at 25067 versus the average at 25209.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在纳斯达克 100 指数方面，50 日均线已被突破，昨天收于 25067 点，而均线为 25209 点。</p>
</div><p>Most recently, the tech-heavy index struggled at 25800s for a few sessions, including last Wednesday’s session high of 25835, which was decidedly lower than the all-time high of 26182 posted on 29 October (Chart 4).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，这个以科技股为主的指数在 25800 点附近挣扎了几个交易日，包括上周三的 25835 点，这明显低于 10 月 29 日创下的 26182 点历史高点（图表 4）。</p>
</div><p>From that high, the Nasdaq 100 quickly gave back 8.9 percent through the session low of 23854 on 21 November; the 50-day was also breached back then, but only for six sessions. This time, too, the index is likely to come under pressure right here and now, as the daily overbought condition gets unwound. Further, the daily lower Bollinger band – flattish the last 15 sessions – lies at 24173, which is near the November 21st low. Should the index decide to test that low, it is a must-save. The 200-day – still rising – will not be tested until 22621; the index has remained above this average the past seven months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从那个高点开始，纳斯达克 100 指数迅速回落 8.9%，在 11 月 21 日的日内低点为 23854 点；当时 50 日均线也被突破，但仅持续了六个交易日。这一次，该指数也可能在此时面临压力，因为日线超买状态正在消退。此外，过去 15 个交易日的日线下布林带平坦，位于 24173 点，接近 11 月 21 日的低点。如果该指数决定测试该低点，必须拯救。200 日均线仍在上升，直到 22621 点才会被测试；该指数在过去七个月中一直保持在该均线之上。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Indices Rally Toward Oct Highs Ahead Of FOMC Meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 FOMC 会议前，指数朝着 10 月高点反弹</p>
</div><p>Surging Rate-Cut Hopes Combined With Defense Of Support Led To Last Week’s Rally</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>激增的降息预期与支撑的防守导致上周的反弹</p>
</div><p>Bulls Hope To Rebuild Momentum On Fri’s Intraday Reversal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多头希望在周五的日内反转中重建动能</p>
</div>

股指可能面临压力，需要解除短期的超买状态