<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>国际清算银行（BIS），全球中央银行的中央银行，在其 2025 年 12 月的季度评论中警告称，股票和黄金价格同时出现罕见泡沫，增加了金融风险，并可能导致重大修正以及未来回报的负面或低迷前景：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>一种广泛使用的统计测试用于检测价格过程的爆炸性，表明标准普尔 500 指数和黄金价格在最近几个月都已进入爆炸性区域。从历史上看，美国股票和黄金的价格在不同时间突破了爆炸性行为的阈值（图 C1.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>这通常会伴随显著的修正，例如 1980 年的黄金（在经历了大通货膨胀的飙升后）和美国股票的互联网泡沫破裂……还要注意，过去几个季度是至少过去 50 年来黄金和股票同时进入这一领域的唯一时间。</p>
<p>在经历爆炸性阶段后，泡沫通常会以急剧而迅速的修正破裂。图 C1.B（右下角）表明，测试统计量的高值——暗示着正在进行的泡沫——通常会伴随负面或低迷的回报期。</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>换句话说，我们正经历一场金融热潮的疫情，那些相信通过持有 “多元化” 企业证券和贵金属来保护自己的人，面临着失望的高风险。</p>
<p>此外，零售投资者的过度热情是经典的泡沫症状，而我们正处于这种状态：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>发展中泡沫的典型症状是零售投资者试图追逐价格趋势的影响力日益增强。在媒体炒作和价格飙升的时期，零售投资者可能会被诱导投资于他们通常会回避的风险资产，这种情况因羊群行为、社交互动和害怕错过而加剧。实际上，零售投资者对市场的兴趣指标，如互联网搜索，往往在泡沫时期激增（图 C2.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>这一次，还有证据表明，零售投资者的过度热情和对看似轻松资本收益的渴望已经蔓延到传统的避风港，如黄金。自 2025 年初以来，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的价格一直以高于其净资产值（NAV）的溢价交易，伴随着零售投资者兴趣的增长（图 C2.B，蓝线，中间，下面）。ETF 价格超过其 NAV 表明强烈的购买压力以及套利的障碍。</p>
<p>基金流动数据揭示，最近主要是零售投资者向美国股票和黄金基金注入资金。此外，零售投资者越来越多地采取与机构投资者相反的交易头寸：后者从美国股票中撤资或在黄金中保持平仓，而零售投资者则记录了资金流入（图 C2.C，右下角）。</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p>尽管零售投资者的涌入缓解了</p>
<p>机构投资者撤资的影响，但他们日益突出的地位可能会在未来威胁市场稳定，考虑到他们倾向于参与羊群行为，一旦发生抛售，可能会加剧价格波动。</p>
</blockquote>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自该作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>金融状况在年末收紧</p>
<p>高昂的住房价格代价不菲</p>
<p>加拿大央行是否已停止降息？</p>

2 倍做空纳斯达克生物技术 ETF - ProShares

<p>国际结算银行（BIS）警告称，股票和黄金同时出现罕见的泡沫，增加了金融风险和市场大幅修正的潜在可能性。标准普尔 500 指数和黄金价格均已进入爆炸性区域，历史上这通常会导致市场修正。散户投资者的过度热情正在助长这一泡沫，投资于美国股票和黄金基金的增加可能威胁到市场的稳定</p>

<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank of central banks globally, warns in its December 2025 Quarterly Review that a rare, simultaneous bubble in the price of stocks and gold has increased financial risks and the prospect of a significant correction and negative or subdued future returns:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际清算银行（BIS），全球中央银行的中央银行，在其 2025 年 12 月的季度评论中警告称，股票和黄金价格同时出现罕见泡沫，增加了金融风险，并可能导致重大修正以及未来回报的负面或低迷前景：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>A widely used statistical test to detect the explosiveness of a price process suggests that both the S&amp;P 500 and the price of gold have entered explosive territory in recent months. Historically, the prices of US equities and gold have breached the explosive behaviour threshold at different times (Graph C1.A, on lower left).</p>
<p>This was often followed by a significant correction, such as in 1980 for gold (after having surged during the Great Inflation) and the burst of the dotcom bubble for US equities… Also note that the past few quarters represent the only time in at least the last 50 years in which gold and equities have entered this territory simultaneously.</p>
<p>Following its explosive phase, a bubble typically bursts with a sharp and swift correction. Graph C1.B (lower right) suggests that high values of the test statistics – hinting at an ongoing bubble – are typically followed by periods of negative or subdued returns.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>一种广泛使用的统计测试用于检测价格过程的爆炸性，表明标准普尔 500 指数和黄金价格在最近几个月都已进入爆炸性区域。从历史上看，美国股票和黄金的价格在不同时间突破了爆炸性行为的阈值（图 C1.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>这通常会伴随显著的修正，例如 1980 年的黄金（在经历了大通货膨胀的飙升后）和美国股票的互联网泡沫破裂……还要注意，过去几个季度是至少过去 50 年来黄金和股票同时进入这一领域的唯一时间。</p>
<p>在经历爆炸性阶段后，泡沫通常会以急剧而迅速的修正破裂。图 C1.B（右下角）表明，测试统计量的高值——暗示着正在进行的泡沫——通常会伴随负面或低迷的回报期。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p>In other words, we are living through a pandemic of financial fever, and those who believe they are protected by holding a ‘diversified’ portfolio of corporate securities and precious metals are at high risk of being disappointed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，我们正经历一场金融热潮的疫情，那些相信通过持有 “多元化” 企业证券和贵金属来保护自己的人，面临着失望的高风险。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, retail exuberance is a classic bubble symptom, and we are there:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，零售投资者的过度热情是经典的泡沫症状，而我们正处于这种状态：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>A typical symptom of a developing bubble is the growing influence of retail investors trying to chase price trends. At times of media hype and surging prices, retail investors can be lured to riskier assets that they would normally shun, compounded by herd-like behaviour, social interactions and fear of missing out. Indeed, measures of retail investors’ interest in markets, such as internet searches, tend to surge at times of frothiness (Graph C2.A, on lower left).</p>
<p>This time around, there is also evidence that retail investor exuberance and appetite for seemingly easy capital gains have spilled over to a traditional safe haven such as gold. Since the beginning of 2025, gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) prices have been consistently trading at a premium relative to their net asset value (NAV) amid growing retail investor interest (Graph C2.B, blue line, middle, below). ETF prices exceeding their NAV signal strong buying pressure coupled with impediments to arbitrage.</p>
<p>Fund flow data reveal it was mostly retail investors who recently poured money into US equities and gold funds. Furthermore, retail investors have increasingly taken trading positions that run counter to those of their institutional counterparts: the latter were taking money out of US equities or maintaining flat positions in gold, while retail investors recorded inflows (Graph C2.C, lower right).</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>发展中泡沫的典型症状是零售投资者试图追逐价格趋势的影响力日益增强。在媒体炒作和价格飙升的时期，零售投资者可能会被诱导投资于他们通常会回避的风险资产，这种情况因羊群行为、社交互动和害怕错过而加剧。实际上，零售投资者对市场的兴趣指标，如互联网搜索，往往在泡沫时期激增（图 C2.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>这一次，还有证据表明，零售投资者的过度热情和对看似轻松资本收益的渴望已经蔓延到传统的避风港，如黄金。自 2025 年初以来，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的价格一直以高于其净资产值（NAV）的溢价交易，伴随着零售投资者兴趣的增长（图 C2.B，蓝线，中间，下面）。ETF 价格超过其 NAV 表明强烈的购买压力以及套利的障碍。</p>
<p>基金流动数据揭示，最近主要是零售投资者向美国股票和黄金基金注入资金。此外，零售投资者越来越多地采取与机构投资者相反的交易头寸：后者从美国股票中撤资或在黄金中保持平仓，而零售投资者则记录了资金流入（图 C2.C，右下角）。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Although the influx of retail investors has mitigated the</p>
<p>impact of institutional investor outflows, their growing prominence could threaten market stability down the road, given their propensity to engage in herd-like behaviour, amplifying price gyrations should fire sales occur.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>尽管零售投资者的涌入缓解了</p>
<p>机构投资者撤资的影响，但他们日益突出的地位可能会在未来威胁市场稳定，考虑到他们倾向于参与羊群行为，一旦发生抛售，可能会加剧价格波动。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自该作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Financial Conditions Tighten Into Year End</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融状况在年末收紧</p>
</div><p>High Shelter Prices Cost A Fortune</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高昂的住房价格代价不菲</p>
</div><p>Is The Bank Of Canada Done Easing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大央行是否已停止降息？</p>
</div>

国际清算银行警告称股票和黄金市场同时出现罕见泡沫