<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 - 委内瑞拉石油供应风险</strong></h3>
<p>昨日，油市抛售加速。ICE 布伦特原油结算下跌 2.7%，跌破 60 美元/桶，创下自 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水平。这一压力源于日益增长的供应过剩预期。对俄罗斯 - 乌克兰停火的希望无疑将加大下行压力。正如我们的石油平衡所示，预计过剩将在 2026 年第一季度达到峰值。然而，明年每个季度都将出现过剩，库存预计将在 2026 年持续增长，进一步压低油价。</p>
<p>我们对市场的看法存在明显的供应风险。俄罗斯的风险已经被充分传达，但委内瑞拉的石油供应风险也很明显。今天早盘交易中，油价有所反弹（WTI 在撰写时上涨约 1.3%），这是因为特朗普总统下令对进入和离开委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施封锁。这是在美国上周在委内瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油轮之后发生的。委内瑞拉在 11 月的石油出口量约为 60 万桶/日。考虑到最新的发展，这些出口量可能会下降。这部分石油主要运往中国。</p>
<p>美国石油协会（API）昨夜发布的库存数据也对市场形成了支持。报告显示，美国原油库存在过去一周减少了 930 万桶。同时，成品油库存变化则较为悲观，汽油和馏分燃料油库存分别增加了 480 万桶和 250 万桶。</p>
<p>欧洲天然气价格昨日继续承压，Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) 下跌 2.4%。温和的天气对市场造成了压力。然而，预测显示本月晚些时候天气将转冷，这可能会对价格提供一些支持。特别是考虑到欧盟天然气储存目前低于平均水平，当前储存量为 69%，而五年平均水平为 78%。投资基金在 TTF 持有的创纪录空头头寸仍然构成风险。</p>
<h3><strong>金属 - South32 的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂将关闭</strong></h3>
<p>South32 将在未能确保长期电力供应后关闭其位于莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂，这将进一步加剧市场紧张。这将使全球库存保持在低位，而价格预计明年将进一步上涨。Mozal 将在 3 月进行维护，届时当前合同将结束。South32 表示，未能采购到维持运营所需的原材料。Mozal 冶炼厂是南非南 32 公司持有 64% 股份的莫桑比克最大工业雇主，2025 年占 South32 铝生产总量的约 29%。铝是莫桑比克第三大出口商品。</p>
<p>铝的生产高度依赖能源，全球冶炼厂一直在努力以可行的价格确保长期电力合同。</p>
<p>这意味着我们的全球铝缺口将增加到约 60 万吨。这还假设 Century 的冰岛停产持续 12 个月，以及中国的产能限制将保持在 4500 万吨。然而，印尼新产能的快速提升可能会缩小这一缺口，并对价格施加下行压力。</p>
<p>Mozal 一直是向欧洲出口铝的重要来源。冶炼厂的关闭将直接影响欧盟的铝工业。欧洲不太可能重启足够的闲置冶炼能力来填补 Mozal 的缺口，电价波动限制了任何有意义的国内复苏。这意味着铝的溢价将上升，供应将更加紧张，特别是对于低碳铝。Mozal 的铝是使用水电生产的，被视为低碳铝。它帮助欧洲买家实现脱碳目标，并限制 CBAM 的影响。</p>
<h3><strong>农业 - 小麦因停火希望而下跌</strong></h3>
<p>CBOT 小麦价格昨日连续第三个交易日下跌，达到自 2025 年 10 月以来的最低水平，原因是南美供应充足的预期以及结束乌克兰战争的努力重启。预计该国在 2025/26 年度的麦子产量约为 2300 万吨，比 2021/22 年度减少约 1000 万吨，主要是由于种植面积减少。停火最终可能导致种植面积和产量的恢复。</p>
<p>法国农业部的最新估计显示，2026 年国内冬季谷物种植面积将达到 640 万公顷，得益于天气条件改善，比去年增长 2.3%。同样，软冬小麦的收成预计将同比增长 2.3%，达到 460 万公顷，基本与五年平均水平持平。玉米收成已完成，生产（不包括种子）预计为 1340 万吨，略高于上个月预测的 1320 万吨。然而，这比上个季节的产量低 8%，主要是由于夏季的热浪和干旱条件影响了产量。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>就业放缓持续，给美联储带来更多降息压力</p>
<p>欧元区 PMI 下滑，但仍显示第四季度温和增长信号</p>
<p>外汇日报：新兴市场货币在年末表现强劲</p>

SOUHY

<p>特朗普总统已下令对进入和离开委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施封锁，此举是在美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油轮之后做出的。预计这一措施将减少委内瑞拉的石油出口，主要是对中国的出口。此外，South32 将关闭其位于莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂，原因是缺乏长期电力供应，这将影响全球铝库存和价格。在南美供应充足的预期以及对俄乌停火的希望下，小麦价格已出现下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy - Venezuelan oil supply risks</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 - 委内瑞拉石油供应风险</strong></h3>
</div><p>The oil market sell-off accelerated yesterday. ICE Brent is settling 2.7% lower, breaking below US$60/bbl to its lowest level since February 2021. This pressure comes from a growing surplus outlook. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will undoubtedly add to the downward pressure. As our oil balance shows, the peak of the surplus is expected in the first quarter of 2026. However, with every quarter of next year in surplus, inventories should grow throughout 2026, putting further pressure on oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨日，油市抛售加速。ICE 布伦特原油结算下跌 2.7%，跌破 60 美元/桶，创下自 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水平。这一压力源于日益增长的供应过剩预期。对俄罗斯 - 乌克兰停火的希望无疑将加大下行压力。正如我们的石油平衡所示，预计过剩将在 2026 年第一季度达到峰值。然而，明年每个季度都将出现过剩，库存预计将在 2026 年持续增长，进一步压低油价。</p>
</div><p>There are clear supply risks to our view. Russian risks are well telegraphed, but there are clear risks to the Venezuelan oil supply. Oil prices have bounced higher in early-morning trading today (WTI up around 1.3% at the time of writing), after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This follows the US seizing an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week. Venezuela exported around 600k b/d of oil in November. It’s likely that these volumes will fall given the latest developments. The bulk of this oil is shipped to China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们对市场的看法存在明显的供应风险。俄罗斯的风险已经被充分传达，但委内瑞拉的石油供应风险也很明显。今天早盘交易中，油价有所反弹（WTI 在撰写时上涨约 1.3%），这是因为特朗普总统下令对进入和离开委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施封锁。这是在美国上周在委内瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油轮之后发生的。委内瑞拉在 11 月的石油出口量约为 60 万桶/日。考虑到最新的发展，这些出口量可能会下降。这部分石油主要运往中国。</p>
</div><p>American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory numbers released overnight were also supportive of the market. US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 9.3m barrels over the last week. Meanwhile, refined product inventory changes were more bearish, with gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks increasing by 4.8m barrels and 2.5m barrels, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国石油协会（API）昨夜发布的库存数据也对市场形成了支持。报告显示，美国原油库存在过去一周减少了 930 万桶。同时，成品油库存变化则较为悲观，汽油和馏分燃料油库存分别增加了 480 万桶和 250 万桶。</p>
</div><p>European natural gas prices continued to come under pressure yesterday, with the Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 2.4% lower. Milder weather weighed on the market. However, forecasts show that weather is set to turn colder than usual later in the month, which should provide some support to prices. Particularly when you consider that EU gas storage is below average, at 69% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 78%. The record-large gross short that investment funds hold in TTF continues to pose a risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲天然气价格昨日继续承压，Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) 下跌 2.4%。温和的天气对市场造成了压力。然而，预测显示本月晚些时候天气将转冷，这可能会对价格提供一些支持。特别是考虑到欧盟天然气储存目前低于平均水平，当前储存量为 69%，而五年平均水平为 78%。投资基金在 TTF 持有的创纪录空头头寸仍然构成风险。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals – South32’s Mozal aluminium smelter to shut</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金属 - South32 的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂将关闭</strong></h3>
</div><p>South32 will shut its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique after failing to secure a long-term electricity supply, adding to an already tight market. This should keep global inventories low, while prices are expected to see further upside next year. Mozal will be placed on care and maintenance in March, when the current contract ends. South32 said it has not procured the raw materials required to sustain operations beyond that period. The Mozal smelter, in which South32 holds a 64% stake, is Mozambique’s largest industrial employer. It accounted for around 29% of South32’s total aluminium production in 2025. Aluminium is Mozambique’s third-biggest export.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>South32 将在未能确保长期电力供应后关闭其位于莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂，这将进一步加剧市场紧张。这将使全球库存保持在低位，而价格预计明年将进一步上涨。Mozal 将在 3 月进行维护，届时当前合同将结束。South32 表示，未能采购到维持运营所需的原材料。Mozal 冶炼厂是南非南 32 公司持有 64% 股份的莫桑比克最大工业雇主，2025 年占 South32 铝生产总量的约 29%。铝是莫桑比克第三大出口商品。</p>
</div><p>Producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and smelters globally have been struggling to secure long-power contracts at viable prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝的生产高度依赖能源，全球冶炼厂一直在努力以可行的价格确保长期电力合同。</p>
</div><p>This means our global aluminium deficit will now increase to around 600kt. This also assumes Century’s 12-month Iceland outage and China’s capacity cap will remain at 45 million tonnes. Still, a faster-than-expected ramp-up in new Indonesian capacity could narrow that deficit and put downward pressure on prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着我们的全球铝缺口将增加到约 60 万吨。这还假设 Century 的冰岛停产持续 12 个月，以及中国的产能限制将保持在 4500 万吨。然而，印尼新产能的快速提升可能会缩小这一缺口，并对价格施加下行压力。</p>
</div><p>Mozal has been a significant source of aluminium exports to Europe. The smelter’s closure will directly impact the EU’s aluminium industry. Europe is unlikely to restart enough idled smelting capacity to fill the Mozal gap, with power price volatility capping any meaningful domestic recovery. This means higher premiums and tighter supply, particularly for low-carbon aluminium. Mozal’s aluminium, produced using hydropower, is considered low-carbon. It has helped European buyers meet decarbonization targets and limit CBAM exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mozal 一直是向欧洲出口铝的重要来源。冶炼厂的关闭将直接影响欧盟的铝工业。欧洲不太可能重启足够的闲置冶炼能力来填补 Mozal 的缺口，电价波动限制了任何有意义的国内复苏。这意味着铝的溢价将上升，供应将更加紧张，特别是对于低碳铝。Mozal 的铝是使用水电生产的，被视为低碳铝。它帮助欧洲买家实现脱碳目标，并限制 CBAM 的影响。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Agriculture – Wheat declines on ceasefire hopes</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>农业 - 小麦因停火希望而下跌</strong></h3>
</div><p>CBOT wheat prices extended losses for a third consecutive session yesterday. They reached their lowest level since October 2025 amid expectations of abundant South American supply and renewed efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The nation is estimated to have produced around 23m tonnes of wheat in 2025/26, about 10m tonnes below 2021/22, largely due to reduced area. A ceasefire could ultimately lead to a recovery in both planted area and production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CBOT 小麦价格昨日连续第三个交易日下跌，达到自 2025 年 10 月以来的最低水平，原因是南美供应充足的预期以及结束乌克兰战争的努力重启。预计该国在 2025/26 年度的麦子产量约为 2300 万吨，比 2021/22 年度减少约 1000 万吨，主要是由于种植面积减少。停火最终可能导致种植面积和产量的恢复。</p>
</div><p>Recent estimates from France’s Agriculture Ministry show that the domestic winter grain plantings for 2026 will reach 6.4m hectares, thanks to better weather conditions, up 2.3% from last year. Similarly, the soft winter wheat harvest is expected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 4.6m hectares, roughly in line with the five-year average. The corn harvest is complete, with production (excluding seeds) estimated at 13.4mt, slightly higher than last month’s forecast of 13.2mt. However, this was 8% below last season’s output, largely due to heat waves and drought conditions during the summer weighing on yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国农业部的最新估计显示，2026 年国内冬季谷物种植面积将达到 640 万公顷，得益于天气条件改善，比去年增长 2.3%。同样，软冬小麦的收成预计将同比增长 2.3%，达到 460 万公顷，基本与五年平均水平持平。玉米收成已完成，生产（不包括种子）预计为 1340 万吨，略高于上个月预测的 1320 万吨。然而，这比上个季节的产量低 8%，主要是由于夏季的热浪和干旱条件影响了产量。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Job Slowdown Continues, Keeping Pressure On The Fed For More Rate Cuts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业放缓持续，给美联储带来更多降息压力</p>
</div><p>Eurozone PMI Slips But Still Signals Modest Growth In The Fourth Quarter</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元区 PMI 下滑，但仍显示第四季度温和增长信号</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: EMFX Ending The Year On A Strong Footing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：新兴市场货币在年末表现强劲</p>
</div>

大宗商品动态：特朗普对委内瑞拉石油油轮的封锁