<p>邓彤，金色财经</p>
<p><em>随着 2025 年即将结束，金色财经推出了一系列名为《回顾 2025》的文章，以迎接新年。该系列回顾了加密行业在过去一年中的进展，并表达了希望该行业能够克服寒冬，在新的一年中焕发光彩的愿望。</em></p>
<p>在 2025 年，加密市场经历了一段辉煌时期，达到了历史新高，随后又回归到整固和触底的阶段。本文回顾了今年加密市场的表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7421736_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="312" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7421736_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>2025 年 BTC 价格趋势图</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7421737_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="312" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7421737_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>从政策信号的角度来看，1 月份的会议声明删除了之前&#34;通胀已朝着 2% 目标取得进展&#34;的表述，并增加了对&#34;再通胀风险&#34;的关注。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，只有在&#34;通胀或劳动市场出现实质性进展&#34;后，才会考虑降息，但强调&#34;降息的门槛极高&#34;，排除了重新加息的可能性。2 月份的会议纪要进一步透露，官员们一致认为当前的紧缩货币政策是为了留出时间评估经济，同时也表达了对特朗普关税政策可能推高通胀的担忧。然而，他们普遍同意&#34;2025 年的降息仍然是大方向&#34;，这使得高盛和巴克莱等机构预测今年将有两次 25 个基点的降息。此外，前美国总统特朗普于 1 月 20 日重返白宫，成为美国历史上第一位&#34;加密总统&#34;，与美联储的宽松预期产生共鸣，成为加密市场上涨的催化剂。</p>
<h2>二、三月至四月：关税和美联储放缓宽松导致 BTC 修正</h2>
<p>自特朗普重返白宫以来，市场一直在消化他可能实施关税的预期。</p>
<p>在 2 月底，特朗普宣布计划对加拿大和墨西哥的关税将推迟，并按计划于下个月生效——给予这两个国家额外时间解决边境安全问题，关税将在 3 月 4 日后正式生效。</p>
<p>随着美国正式推进对加拿大和墨西哥实施关税的预期政策，市场开始重新评估全球贸易环境。对 3 月 4 日关税生效的预期引发了对全球贸易摩擦的担忧，风险厌恶情绪上升，导致资金从风险资产中撤出，短期资金偏向美元和现金类资产。</p>
<p>3 月 23 日，美联储的利率会议结束。美联储维持利率不变，但上调了通胀预测，发出可能放缓宽松步伐的信号，打破了市场之前对快速降息的乐观预期。在多重负面因素的共同压力下，加密货币市场经历了短期抛售。</p>
<p>III. 五月至十月：政策支持 + 利率下调的恢复推动 BTC 创新双顶和新高 美国的加密货币监管政策和利率下调真正为加密货币市场带来了一个 “加密夏季”。受此影响，BTC 价格飙升，8 月 14 日达到历史最高点 123,561 美元，随后在 10 月 7 日进一步攀升至历史最高点 124,774 美元。从 7 月 14 日到 18 日，美国 “加密周” 拉开帷幕，三项主要的加密货币监管法案获得通过。6 月 17 日，美国参议院通过了《稳定币国家创新法案》（即 “GENIUS 法案”），推动美国联邦政府在稳定币方面的监管努力，并施压众议院规划下一阶段的国家数字资产监管。7 月 18 日，该法案被特朗普签署成为法律。这项法案的通过标志着美国首次正式建立了数字稳定币的监管框架。7 月 17 日，众议院以 219 票对 210 票通过了《反 CBDC 监控国家法案》。6 月 23 日，众议院金融服务委员会和农业委员会提交了《数字资产市场明确法案》，该法案将数字商品定义为其价值与区块链技术的使用 “内在关联” 的数字资产。该法案于 7 月 17 日获得众议院通过。9 月 18 日，美联储宣布下调 25 个基点的利率，将联邦基金利率降低至 4%-4.25%，进一步的流动性宽松预期回归。同时，多个国家的中央银行开始在其外汇储备中纳入少量比特币以实现多元化；荷兰中央银行披露持有价值 15 亿美元的比特币资产，增强了市场信心。10 月 1 日，由于资金不足，美国联邦政府面临 43 天的停摆，投资者对经济不确定性的担忧推动了对避险资产的需求。BTC 成为大型机构和零售投资者的宠儿，因此在 10 月 7 日飙升至新的历史高点。尽管其动能随后减弱，但 BTC 的价格在 10 月大部分时间保持在 110,000 美元以上。此外，6 月 5 日的 Circle IPO、8 月 1 日生效的香港稳定币条例法案、9 月 1 日特朗普家族的 WLFI 交易以及各公司宣布的加密货币储备也不时成为价格上涨的催化剂。在价格稳步上涨的同时，一场危机也在酝酿。10 月 BTC 达到超过 120,000 美元的历史高点后，开始缓慢下滑，引发了人们在年底最后两个月广泛讨论是否已进入熊市。 IV. 十一月至十二月：对未来经济的担忧削弱了 BTC 的上涨动能。11 月 1 日，BTC 的价格为 109,574 美元，此后开始下行趋势。11 月 23 日，BTC 触及低点 84,682 美元，较月初下跌 22.71%。尽管此后大部分时间波动在 90,000 美元以上，但上涨趋势缺乏力度，引发了行业内的各种猜测。美国政府停摆导致关键经济数据缺失，市场对经济基本面和未来利率趋势的担忧加剧，从而对风险资产的表现产生了负面影响。此外，尽管市场之前预期美联储将进一步降息，但美联储在实际降息前发出了谨慎信号，导致市场对未来流动性的预期出现分歧。12 月 10 日，美联储实施了今年的第三次降息，但市场将其解读为 “衰退式降息”，以应对经济疲软，加剧了悲观预期。投资者正在重新评估全球利率路径和财政健康等宏观经济变量，在不确定性中更倾向于保守的资产配置。随着加密市场持续低迷，许多 DAT 公司正苦苦挣扎求生。由于市场剧烈变化导致的清算增加将进一步压低市场。目前，市场期待着 “圣诞反弹”，这可能是今年的 “全村的希望”。总结 2025 年以几乎 “确定” 的乐观情绪开始，特朗普的上台让行业充满期待。在经历了关税和美联储放松步伐放缓后，市场在一段沉寂后反弹：有利政策、利率下调的恢复、Circle 等加密公司 IPO、特朗普家族项目的炒作以及 DAT 公司的激增都促使 BTC 两次突破 120,000 美元大关。然而，受宏观经济预期的影响，BTC 可能在年底经历一段整固和触底期。回顾全年加密市场的整体趋势，BTC 与传统金融市场的相关性显著增加。监管框架的改善和美联储政策步伐可能继续成为影响 BTC 价格趋势的关键变量，直至 2026 年。</p>

<p>在 2025 年，比特币的价格受到宏观经济因素的影响，包括美国货币政策、特朗普的关税政策以及监管发展。尽管因关税担忧出现初步回调，但由于政策支持和降息，该年比特币达到了历史新高。关键事件包括主要加密货币监管法案的通过以及中央银行用比特币多元化储备，增强了市场信心</p>

<p>Deng Tong, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邓彤，金色财经</p>
</div><p><em>As 2025 draws to a close, Jinse Finance presents a series of articles titled &#34;Looking Back at 2025&#34; to mark the New Year. This series reviews the progress of the crypto industry throughout the year and expresses the hope that the industry will overcome its winter and shine brightly in the new year.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>随着 2025 年即将结束，金色财经推出了一系列名为《回顾 2025》的文章，以迎接新年。该系列回顾了加密行业在过去一年中的进展，并表达了希望该行业能够克服寒冬，在新的一年中焕发光彩的愿望。</em></p>
</div><p>In 2025, the crypto market experienced a period of brilliance, reaching record highs before returning to a period of consolidation and bottoming out. This article reviews the performance of the crypto market this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，加密市场经历了一段辉煌时期，达到了历史新高，随后又回归到整固和触底的阶段。本文回顾了今年加密市场的表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7421736_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7421736_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>BTC price trend chart in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 BTC 价格趋势图</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7421737_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7421737_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>From a policy signal perspective, the January meeting statement removed the previous statement that &#34;inflation has made progress toward the 2% target&#34; and added a focus on the &#34;risk of reflation.&#34; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explicitly stated that a rate cut would only be considered after &#34;real progress in inflation or weakness in the labor market,&#34; but emphasized that &#34;the threshold for a rate hike reversal is extremely high,&#34; ruling out the possibility of restarting rate hikes. The February meeting minutes further revealed that officials unanimously agreed that the current restrictive monetary policy was to allow time to assess the economy, while also expressing concern that Trump's tariff policies could push up inflation. However, they generally agreed that &#34;rate cuts in 2025 remain the general direction,&#34; leading institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays to predict two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. Additionally, former US President Trump returned to the White House on January 20, becoming the first &#34;crypto president&#34; in US history, resonating with the Fed's easing expectations and becoming a catalyst for the rise in the crypto market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从政策信号的角度来看，1 月份的会议声明删除了之前&#34;通胀已朝着 2% 目标取得进展&#34;的表述，并增加了对&#34;再通胀风险&#34;的关注。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，只有在&#34;通胀或劳动市场出现实质性进展&#34;后，才会考虑降息，但强调&#34;降息的门槛极高&#34;，排除了重新加息的可能性。2 月份的会议纪要进一步透露，官员们一致认为当前的紧缩货币政策是为了留出时间评估经济，同时也表达了对特朗普关税政策可能推高通胀的担忧。然而，他们普遍同意&#34;2025 年的降息仍然是大方向&#34;，这使得高盛和巴克莱等机构预测今年将有两次 25 个基点的降息。此外，前美国总统特朗普于 1 月 20 日重返白宫，成为美国历史上第一位&#34;加密总统&#34;，与美联储的宽松预期产生共鸣，成为加密市场上涨的催化剂。</p>
</div><h2>II. March-April: Tariffs and Slower Fed Easing Lead to BTC Correction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>二、三月至四月：关税和美联储放缓宽松导致 BTC 修正</h2>
</div><p>Since Trump's return to the White House, the market has been digesting expectations of his imposition of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自特朗普重返白宫以来，市场一直在消化他可能实施关税的预期。</p>
</div><p>At the end of February, Trump announced that the planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be postponed and take effect as scheduled next month—giving the two countries additional time to resolve border security issues, the tariffs would officially take effect after March 4th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月底，特朗普宣布计划对加拿大和墨西哥的关税将推迟，并按计划于下个月生效——给予这两个国家额外时间解决边境安全问题，关税将在 3 月 4 日后正式生效。</p>
</div><p>With the US officially moving forward with the expected policy of imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the market began to reassess the global trade environment. The expectation of the tariffs taking effect on March 4th triggered concerns about global trade frictions, and rising risk aversion led to a withdrawal of funds from risky assets, with short-term funds favoring the US dollar and cash-like assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美国正式推进对加拿大和墨西哥实施关税的预期政策，市场开始重新评估全球贸易环境。对 3 月 4 日关税生效的预期引发了对全球贸易摩擦的担忧，风险厌恶情绪上升，导致资金从风险资产中撤出，短期资金偏向美元和现金类资产。</p>
</div><p>On March 23rd, the Fed's interest rate meeting concluded. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged but raised its inflation forecast, signaling a possible slowdown in the pace of easing, breaking the market's previous optimistic expectations of rapid interest rate cuts. Under the combined pressure of multiple negative factors, the cryptocurrency market experienced a short-term sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月 23 日，美联储的利率会议结束。美联储维持利率不变，但上调了通胀预测，发出可能放缓宽松步伐的信号，打破了市场之前对快速降息的乐观预期。在多重负面因素的共同压力下，加密货币市场经历了短期抛售。</p>
</div><p>III. May-October: Policy Support + Resumption of Interest Rate Cuts Boost BTC to New Double Tops and Highs The US's cryptocurrency regulatory policies and interest rate cuts truly ushered in a &#34;crypto summer&#34; for the cryptocurrency market. Affected by this, the price of BTC surged, reaching an all-time high of $123,561 on August 14th, and then further climbing to an all-time high of $124,774 on October 7th. From July 14th to 18th, the US &#34;Crypto Week&#34; kicked off, with three major cryptocurrency regulatory bills being passed. On June 17th, the US Senate passed the *Directing and Establishing a National Innovation for Stablecoins Act* (the *GENIUS Act*), advancing the US federal government's regulatory efforts on stablecoins and pressuring the House of Representatives to plan the next phase of national digital asset regulation. On July 18th, the bill was signed into law by Trump. The passage of this bill marks the first time the US has formally established a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins. On July 17, the House of Representatives passed the &#34;Anti-CBDC Surveillance Nation Act&#34; by a vote of 219 to 210. On June 23, the House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee submitted the &#34;Clarity Act on Digital Asset Markets,&#34; which defines digital goods as digital assets whose value is &#34;intrinsically linked&#34; to the use of blockchain technology. It was passed by the House of Representatives on July 17. On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, and expectations of further liquidity easing returned. Simultaneously, central banks in several countries began to include small amounts of Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves for diversification; the Dutch central bank disclosed holding $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin assets, boosting market confidence. On October 1, the US federal government faced a 43-day shutdown due to insufficient funds, and investor concerns about economic uncertainty fueled demand for safe-haven assets. BTC became a favorite among large institutional and retail investors, thus surging to a new all-time high on October 7th. Although its momentum weakened afterward, the price of BTC remained above $110,000 for most of October. Additionally, the Circle IPO on June 5th, the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance bill that came into effect on August 1st, the Trump family's WLFI transaction on September 1st, and announcements of cryptocurrency reserves by various companies also served as catalysts for the price increase from time to time. While the price was rising steadily, a crisis was also brewing. After reaching its all-time high of over $120,000 in October, BTC began a slow decline, sparking widespread discussion in the last two months of the year about whether it had entered a bear market. IV. November-December: Concerns about the future economy weakened BTC's upward momentum. On November 1st, the price of BTC was $109,574, after which it began a downward trend. On November 23, BTC hit a low of $84,682, a 22.71% drop from the beginning of the month. Although it fluctuated above $90,000 for most of the time afterward, the upward trend lacked strength, sparking various speculations within the industry. The US government shutdown led to a lack of key economic data, causing market concerns about economic fundamentals and future interest rate trends, thus negatively impacting the performance of risk assets. Furthermore, despite prior expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the Fed issued cautious signals before the actual cuts, leading to divergent market expectations regarding future liquidity. On December 10, the Fed implemented its third interest rate cut of the year, but the market interpreted it as a &#34;recession-style rate cut&#34; to address a weakening economy, exacerbating pessimistic expectations. Investors are reassessing macroeconomic variables such as the global interest rate path and fiscal health, favoring more conservative asset allocations amidst uncertainty. As the crypto market remains sluggish, many DAT companies are struggling to survive. Increased liquidations due to drastic market changes will further push the market down. Currently, the market is anticipating a &#34;Christmas rally,&#34; which may be the &#34;hope for the whole village&#34; this year. Summary The year 2025 began with an almost &#34;certain&#34; optimism, with Trump's rise to power filling the industry with anticipation. After experiencing tariffs and a slowdown in the Fed's easing pace, the market rebounded after a period of dormancy: favorable policies, the resumption of interest rate cuts, IPOs of crypto companies like Circle, hype surrounding Trump family projects, and a surge in DAT companies all contributed to BTC breaking through the $120,000 mark twice. However, influenced by macroeconomic expectations, BTC is likely to experience a period of consolidation and bottoming out at the end of the year. Looking at the overall crypto market trend throughout the year, the correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets has significantly increased. The improvement of the regulatory framework and the Fed's policy pace will likely continue to be key variables influencing BTC's price trend in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>III. 五月至十月：政策支持 + 利率下调的恢复推动 BTC 创新双顶和新高 美国的加密货币监管政策和利率下调真正为加密货币市场带来了一个 “加密夏季”。受此影响，BTC 价格飙升，8 月 14 日达到历史最高点 123,561 美元，随后在 10 月 7 日进一步攀升至历史最高点 124,774 美元。从 7 月 14 日到 18 日，美国 “加密周” 拉开帷幕，三项主要的加密货币监管法案获得通过。6 月 17 日，美国参议院通过了《稳定币国家创新法案》（即 “GENIUS 法案”），推动美国联邦政府在稳定币方面的监管努力，并施压众议院规划下一阶段的国家数字资产监管。7 月 18 日，该法案被特朗普签署成为法律。这项法案的通过标志着美国首次正式建立了数字稳定币的监管框架。7 月 17 日，众议院以 219 票对 210 票通过了《反 CBDC 监控国家法案》。6 月 23 日，众议院金融服务委员会和农业委员会提交了《数字资产市场明确法案》，该法案将数字商品定义为其价值与区块链技术的使用 “内在关联” 的数字资产。该法案于 7 月 17 日获得众议院通过。9 月 18 日，美联储宣布下调 25 个基点的利率，将联邦基金利率降低至 4%-4.25%，进一步的流动性宽松预期回归。同时，多个国家的中央银行开始在其外汇储备中纳入少量比特币以实现多元化；荷兰中央银行披露持有价值 15 亿美元的比特币资产，增强了市场信心。10 月 1 日，由于资金不足，美国联邦政府面临 43 天的停摆，投资者对经济不确定性的担忧推动了对避险资产的需求。BTC 成为大型机构和零售投资者的宠儿，因此在 10 月 7 日飙升至新的历史高点。尽管其动能随后减弱，但 BTC 的价格在 10 月大部分时间保持在 110,000 美元以上。此外，6 月 5 日的 Circle IPO、8 月 1 日生效的香港稳定币条例法案、9 月 1 日特朗普家族的 WLFI 交易以及各公司宣布的加密货币储备也不时成为价格上涨的催化剂。在价格稳步上涨的同时，一场危机也在酝酿。10 月 BTC 达到超过 120,000 美元的历史高点后，开始缓慢下滑，引发了人们在年底最后两个月广泛讨论是否已进入熊市。 IV. 十一月至十二月：对未来经济的担忧削弱了 BTC 的上涨动能。11 月 1 日，BTC 的价格为 109,574 美元，此后开始下行趋势。11 月 23 日，BTC 触及低点 84,682 美元，较月初下跌 22.71%。尽管此后大部分时间波动在 90,000 美元以上，但上涨趋势缺乏力度，引发了行业内的各种猜测。美国政府停摆导致关键经济数据缺失，市场对经济基本面和未来利率趋势的担忧加剧，从而对风险资产的表现产生了负面影响。此外，尽管市场之前预期美联储将进一步降息，但美联储在实际降息前发出了谨慎信号，导致市场对未来流动性的预期出现分歧。12 月 10 日，美联储实施了今年的第三次降息，但市场将其解读为 “衰退式降息”，以应对经济疲软，加剧了悲观预期。投资者正在重新评估全球利率路径和财政健康等宏观经济变量，在不确定性中更倾向于保守的资产配置。随着加密市场持续低迷，许多 DAT 公司正苦苦挣扎求生。由于市场剧烈变化导致的清算增加将进一步压低市场。目前，市场期待着 “圣诞反弹”，这可能是今年的 “全村的希望”。总结 2025 年以几乎 “确定” 的乐观情绪开始，特朗普的上台让行业充满期待。在经历了关税和美联储放松步伐放缓后，市场在一段沉寂后反弹：有利政策、利率下调的恢复、Circle 等加密公司 IPO、特朗普家族项目的炒作以及 DAT 公司的激增都促使 BTC 两次突破 120,000 美元大关。然而，受宏观经济预期的影响，BTC 可能在年底经历一段整固和触底期。回顾全年加密市场的整体趋势，BTC 与传统金融市场的相关性显著增加。监管框架的改善和美联储政策步伐可能继续成为影响 BTC 价格趋势的关键变量，直至 2026 年。</p>
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回顾 2025 年：是什么因素推动了 BTC 价格在 “四季” 中变化？