<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png"/></p>
<p>德国商业信心预计将在年末以较软的姿态结束，突显出欧洲最大经济体在摆脱长期疲软期方面的困难。</p>
<p>最新的调查数据显示，尽管对当前状况的看法变化不大，但企业对未来的预期变得更加谨慎。</p>
<p>最新数据显示，德国经济的前景呈现出复杂的局面，经济增长乏力、外部压力以及深层次的结构性问题使其面临挑战。</p>
<p>在今年的产出勉强避免衰退的情况下，焦点越来越转向改革和公共支出计划是否能够恢复企业信心。</p>
<p>Ifo 研究所发布的预期指数在 12 月份下降，显示出企业对未来几个月的情绪更加悲观。</p>
<p>周三发布的调查显示，该指数从修正后的 90.5 降至 89.7。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="990" height="557" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Ifo 研究所</p>
<p>相比之下，另一项跟踪企业对当前状况评估的指标保持不变，这表明尽管未来前景黯淡，但当前的情况已趋于稳定。</p>
<h2>预期减弱</h2>
<p>预期的下降表明，企业对 2026 年上半年的前景愈发谨慎。</p>
<p>尽管日常商业条件没有进一步恶化，但前瞻性情绪缺乏改善表明不确定性依然存在。</p>
<p>Ifo 的数据强调了在经历了供应冲击、通胀压力以及国内外需求疲软的多年后，信心尚未恢复。</p>
<p>这种悲观情绪出现在这一年结束之际，这一年对希望实现决定性转机的企业几乎没有提供任何安慰。</p>
<p>尽管最近几个月有所稳定，但整体情绪依然脆弱，反映出对增长动能和政策方向的担忧。</p>
<h2>调查信号混杂</h2>
<p>其他近期调查对德国经济的状态发出了相互矛盾的信息。</p>
<p>周二，标普全球的商业调查显示，12 月份私营部门活动有所扩张，但增速低于经济学家的预期。</p>
<p>相比之下，ZEW 研究所的数据则显示经济预期大幅改善，达到自 7 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>综合来看，这些指标表明，尽管经济的某些领域表现出韧性，但信心却不均衡且远未稳固。</p>
<p>调查之间的差异也突显出对这些初步改善是否能够持续到新年的不确定性。</p>
<h2>增长依然脆弱</h2>
<p>德国经济仍在努力摆脱 2023 年和 2024 年国内生产总值收缩的低迷期。</p>
<p>该国在今年勉强避免再次陷入衰退，第三季度的产出停滞不前，此前三个月收缩了 0.2%。</p>
<p>疲弱的出口和低迷的家庭支出是 7 月至 9 月期间表现不佳的关键因素。</p>
<p>与此同时，德国仍然面临更高的美国贸易关税和全球需求疲软的压力，进一步加大了其以出口为驱动的经济模式的压力。</p>
<p>德国脆弱的复苏在商业预期减弱时受到考验，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>德国商业信心预计将在年末以较为疲软的态势收尾，尽管当前状况稳定，但企业对未来的谨慎情绪加剧。Ifo 研究所的预期指数在 12 月份下降，表明持续的不确定性。调查信号的混杂和疲弱的增长凸显了德国经济面临的挑战，该经济今年勉强避免了衰退。外部压力和结构性问题继续对信心造成影响</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png"/></p>
<p>German business sentiment is set to end the year on a softer note, highlighting how difficult it remains for Europe’s largest economy to break free from a prolonged period of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业信心预计将在年末以较软的姿态结束，突显出欧洲最大经济体在摆脱长期疲软期方面的困难。</p>
</div><p>Fresh survey data suggest that companies are growing more cautious about what lies ahead, even as views on current conditions show little change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的调查数据显示，尽管对当前状况的看法变化不大，但企业对未来的预期变得更加谨慎。</p>
</div><p>The latest figures contribute to a mixed picture of Germany’s economy, which has struggled with sluggish growth, external pressures, and deep-seated structural issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新数据显示，德国经济的前景呈现出复杂的局面，经济增长乏力、外部压力以及深层次的结构性问题使其面临挑战。</p>
</div><p>With output barely avoiding recession this year, the focus is increasingly shifting to whether reforms and public spending plans can restore confidence among firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年的产出勉强避免衰退的情况下，焦点越来越转向改革和公共支出计划是否能够恢复企业信心。</p>
</div><p>An expectations index published by the Ifo institute fell in December, pointing to a more downbeat mood among businesses looking ahead to the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ifo 研究所发布的预期指数在 12 月份下降，显示出企业对未来几个月的情绪更加悲观。</p>
</div><p>The survey, released on Wednesday, showed the index slipping to 89.7 from a revised 90.5 in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三发布的调查显示，该指数从修正后的 90.5 降至 89.7。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Ifo Institute</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Ifo 研究所</p>
</div><p>By contrast, a separate measure tracking companies’ assessment of current conditions remained unchanged, suggesting that the immediate situation has stabilised even as future prospects dim.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，另一项跟踪企业对当前状况评估的指标保持不变，这表明尽管未来前景黯淡，但当前的情况已趋于稳定。</p>
</div><h2>Expectations weaken</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预期减弱</h2>
</div><p>The drop in expectations signals that firms are increasingly cautious about the first half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预期的下降表明，企业对 2026 年上半年的前景愈发谨慎。</p>
</div><p>While day-to-day business conditions have not deteriorated further, the lack of improvement in forward-looking sentiment indicates persistent uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管日常商业条件没有进一步恶化，但前瞻性情绪缺乏改善表明不确定性依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The Ifo data underline how confidence has yet to recover after years marked by supply shocks, inflation pressures, and weak demand at home and abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ifo 的数据强调了在经历了供应冲击、通胀压力以及国内外需求疲软的多年后，信心尚未恢复。</p>
</div><p>This pessimism comes at the end of a year that offered little reassurance for companies hoping for a decisive turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种悲观情绪出现在这一年结束之际，这一年对希望实现决定性转机的企业几乎没有提供任何安慰。</p>
</div><p>Despite some stabilisation in recent months, the overall mood remains fragile, reflecting concerns about growth momentum and policy direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管最近几个月有所稳定，但整体情绪依然脆弱，反映出对增长动能和政策方向的担忧。</p>
</div><h2>Mixed survey signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>调查信号混杂</h2>
</div><p>Other recent surveys have sent conflicting messages about the state of the German economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他近期调查对德国经济的状态发出了相互矛盾的信息。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, business surveys by S&amp;P Global pointed to private-sector activity expanding in December, but at a slower pace than economists had expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，标普全球的商业调查显示，12 月份私营部门活动有所扩张，但增速低于经济学家的预期。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, data from the ZEW institute showed a sharp improvement in economic expectations, reaching their highest level since July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，ZEW 研究所的数据则显示经济预期大幅改善，达到自 7 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these indicators suggest that while some segments of the economy are showing resilience, confidence is uneven and far from secure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这些指标表明，尽管经济的某些领域表现出韧性，但信心却不均衡且远未稳固。</p>
</div><p>The divergence between surveys also highlights uncertainty about whether tentative improvements can be sustained into the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调查之间的差异也突显出对这些初步改善是否能够持续到新年的不确定性。</p>
</div><h2>Growth remains fragile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长依然脆弱</h2>
</div><p>Germany’s economy is still struggling to emerge from a downturn that saw gross domestic product contract in both 2023 and 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国经济仍在努力摆脱 2023 年和 2024 年国内生产总值收缩的低迷期。</p>
</div><p>The country narrowly avoided falling back into recession this year, with output stagnating in the third quarter after shrinking by 0.2% in the previous three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该国在今年勉强避免再次陷入衰退，第三季度的产出停滞不前，此前三个月收缩了 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Weak exports and subdued household spending were key factors behind the poor performance between July and September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的出口和低迷的家庭支出是 7 月至 9 月期间表现不佳的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Germany remains exposed to higher US trade levies and softer global demand, adding to the pressure on its export-driven model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，德国仍然面临更高的美国贸易关税和全球需求疲软的压力，进一步加大了其以出口为驱动的经济模式的压力。</p>
</div><p>The post Germany’s fragile recovery tested as business expectations weaken appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国脆弱的复苏在商业预期减弱时受到考验，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Germany’s fragile recovery tested as business expectations weaken

- 德国商业情绪在年底趋于疲软，显示经济复苏艰难。
- Ifo 研究所的预期指数在 12 月下滑至 89.7，反映企业对未来的谨慎态度。
- 经济增长仍脆弱，面对出口低迷和家庭消费疲软的挑战。

德国的脆弱复苏面临考验，因商业预期减弱