<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105/query-Zm09anBnJml4aWQ9TTN3eE1qQTNmREI4TUh4d2FHOTBieTF3WVdkbGZIeDhmR1Z1ZkRCOGZIeDhmQT09Jml4bGliPXJiLTQuMS4wJnE9NjAmdz0zMDAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="2000" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105/query-Zm09anBnJml4aWQ9TTN3eE1qQTNmREI4TUh4d2FHOTBieTF3WVdkbGZIeDhmR1Z1ZkRCOGZIeDhmQT09Jml4bGliPXJiLTQuMS4wJnE9NjAmdz0zMDAw"/></p>
<p>照片由 Mathieu Stern 提供于 Unsplash</p>
<p>随着 Ifo 指数降至自五月以来的最低水平，德国经济在又一个令人失望的年份末尾依然停滞不前。然而，尽管前景黯淡，周期性反弹的迹象开始显现。</p>
<p>对于德国经济而言，今年的结束与开始一样：Ifo 指数的表现令人失望。</p>
<p>德国的领先指标在十二月为 87.6，低于十一月的 88.1。这是今年五月以来的最低水平。诚然，尽管今天有所下降，但绝对水平仍高于年初（当时为 85.1）。</p>
<p>虽然当前评估部分保持不变为 85.6，但预期下降至 89.7，也是自五月以来的最低水平。</p>
<h3><strong>感谢你们的无所作为</strong></h3>
<p>今年德国经济经历了一场情绪过山车，从乐观转向悲观，最终政策制定者终于承认——在多年的否认之后——美好时代确实已经结束。</p>
<p>在财政刺激政策的急转弯和新政府联盟协议之后，德国的乐观情绪回归，但由于对创造性预算会计的怀疑以及明显缺乏结构性改革，进入了下半年的新一轮国家抑郁。自 2022 年底以来，经济实际上只有两个季度实现了增长。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这一可怕的经济表现至少有一个好处：在年末，似乎每个人终于明白，德国的经济问题不仅仅是一些不幸情况的致命连锁反应，而是多年投资不足、缺乏结构性改革以及中国从出口目的地转变为系统竞争对手的结果。美国关税和欧元升值只加剧了这些问题，但并不是根本原因。</p>
<p>新政府决定加大基础设施和国防投资仅仅是个开始。在某种程度上，这些投资，加上最近宣布的工业能源价格补贴，都是恢复竞争力的最低限度。还需要更多。无论是众所周知的减少繁文缛节、引入电子政务、掌握并降低人口老龄化的财务负担，还是减税，德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨及其政府的 “待办事项” 清单可能比普通孩子的圣诞愿望清单还要长。</p>
<h3><strong>周期性反弹的初步迹象正在形成</strong></h3>
<p>虽然解决结构性挑战并不容易——绝对不是快速的——但至少有一些初步迹象表明，明年可能会出现触底反弹和一些周期性改善。工业订单已经连续两个月增加，库存有所减少，产能利用率开始回升。诚然，所有这些迹象仍然非常初步和微弱。</p>
<p>再加上宣布降低工业能源价格，至少可以预期工业活动的周期性反弹即将到来。最后，德国议会几周前刚刚批准了 2026 年预算，并将在本周批准近 30 项总额约 500 亿欧元的国防合同。财政刺激的影响将会到来；只是需要一些时间。</p>
<h3><strong>德国经济应在 2026 年摆脱停滞</strong></h3>
<p>总的来说，遵循 “为最坏情况做准备并希望最好” 的原则，今天的 Ifo 指数读数并不令人惊讶。相反，它符合我们的基本情景，即德国经济将在又一个没有增长的季度结束这一年。然而，有足够的证据表明，德国经济明年将摆脱停滞，尽管任何周期性反弹绝对不应被误认为是结构性改善。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>欧洲央行预览：为圣诞节回家</p>
<p>全球经济正在升温，但厨房一片混乱</p>
<p>德国出口在十月停滞不前</p>

<p>12 月的 Ifo 指数降至 87.6，为自 5 月以来的最低水平，显示出德国经济的停滞。尽管如此，周期性反弹的迹象正在显现，工业订单增加，库存减少。政府计划进行基础设施和国防投资，旨在恢复竞争力。尽管结构性挑战依然存在，但预计明年将出现周期性改善，尽管不会发生结构性变化</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105/query-Zm09anBnJml4aWQ9TTN3eE1qQTNmREI4TUh4d2FHOTBieTF3WVdkbGZIeDhmR1Z1ZkRCOGZIeDhmQT09Jml4bGliPXJiLTQuMS4wJnE9NjAmdz0zMDAw" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105?fm=jpg&amp;q=60&amp;w=3000&amp;ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;ixid=M3wxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHx8fA%3D%3D"/></p>
<p>Photo by Mathieu Stern on Unsplash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>照片由 Mathieu Stern 提供于 Unsplash</p>
</div><p>With the Ifo index dropping to the lowest level since May, the German economy remains stuck in stagnation at the end of another disappointing year. Yet, despite the gloom, signs of a cyclical rebound are beginning to emerge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 Ifo 指数降至自五月以来的最低水平，德国经济在又一个令人失望的年份末尾依然停滞不前。然而，尽管前景黯淡，周期性反弹的迹象开始显现。</p>
</div><p>For the German economy, the year has ended as it started: with a disappointing Ifo index reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于德国经济而言，今年的结束与开始一样：Ifo 指数的表现令人失望。</p>
</div><p>Germany’s leading indicator came in at 87.6 in December, from 88.1 in November. This is the lowest level since May this year. Admittedly, despite today’s drop, the absolute level is still higher than at the start of the year (when it was 85.1).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国的领先指标在十二月为 87.6，低于十一月的 88.1。这是今年五月以来的最低水平。诚然，尽管今天有所下降，但绝对水平仍高于年初（当时为 85.1）。</p>
</div><p>While the current assessment component remained unchanged at 85.6, expectations weakened to 89.7, also the lowest level since May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然当前评估部分保持不变为 85.6，但预期下降至 89.7，也是自五月以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Thanks for nothing</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>感谢你们的无所作为</strong></h3>
</div><p>The German economy has been on an emotional roller-coaster ride this year, swinging from optimism to pessimism, culminating in policymakers finally acknowledging – after years of denial – that the era of good times is truly over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年德国经济经历了一场情绪过山车，从乐观转向悲观，最终政策制定者终于承认——在多年的否认之后——美好时代确实已经结束。</p>
</div><p>After the U-turn on fiscal stimulus and the new government coalition agreement, optimism returned to Germany, only to enter a new phase of national depression in the second half of the year due to doubts about creative budget accounting and a clear lack of structural reforms. Since the end of 2022, there have been only two quarters in which the economy actually grew.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财政刺激政策的急转弯和新政府联盟协议之后，德国的乐观情绪回归，但由于对创造性预算会计的怀疑以及明显缺乏结构性改革，进入了下半年的新一轮国家抑郁。自 2022 年底以来，经济实际上只有两个季度实现了增长。</p>
</div><p>Still, this dreadful economic performance has at least one upside: at the end of the year, everyone seems to have finally understood that Germany’s economic problems are not just a fatal concatenation of unfortunate circumstances but rather the result of years of underinvestment, a lack of structural reforms and the rise of China from export destination to system rival. US tariffs and the stronger euro exchange have only aggravated the problems, but are not the root cause.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这一可怕的经济表现至少有一个好处：在年末，似乎每个人终于明白，德国的经济问题不仅仅是一些不幸情况的致命连锁反应，而是多年投资不足、缺乏结构性改革以及中国从出口目的地转变为系统竞争对手的结果。美国关税和欧元升值只加剧了这些问题，但并不是根本原因。</p>
</div><p>The new government’s decision to ramp up infrastructure and defence investments is only the start. To some extent, these investments, together with the recently announced subsidies for industrial energy prices, are a bare minimum to restore competitiveness. More is needed. Whether it is the well-known reduction of red tape, the introduction of e-government, mastering and lowering the financial burden of demographics or tax cuts, the “to-do” list for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government is probably longer than an average child's Christmas wish list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新政府决定加大基础设施和国防投资仅仅是个开始。在某种程度上，这些投资，加上最近宣布的工业能源价格补贴，都是恢复竞争力的最低限度。还需要更多。无论是众所周知的减少繁文缛节、引入电子政务、掌握并降低人口老龄化的财务负担，还是减税，德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨及其政府的 “待办事项” 清单可能比普通孩子的圣诞愿望清单还要长。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tentative signs of a cyclical rebound in the making</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>周期性反弹的初步迹象正在形成</strong></h3>
</div><p>While it won’t be easy to solve the structural challenges – definitely not quickly – there are at least tentative signs of a bottoming out and some cyclical improvement in the next year. Industrial orders have now increased for two months in a row, inventories have come down somewhat, and capacity utilisation has started to turn. Admittedly, all of these signs are still very tentative and weak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然解决结构性挑战并不容易——绝对不是快速的——但至少有一些初步迹象表明，明年可能会出现触底反弹和一些周期性改善。工业订单已经连续两个月增加，库存有所减少，产能利用率开始回升。诚然，所有这些迹象仍然非常初步和微弱。</p>
</div><p>Add to this the announced reduction of energy prices for industry, and at least a cyclical rebound in industrial activity should be in the making. Last but not least, the German parliament only signed off on the 2026 budget a few weeks ago and will approve almost 30 defence contracts amounting to some €50bn this week. The impact of fiscal stimulus will come; it only takes a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上宣布降低工业能源价格，至少可以预期工业活动的周期性反弹即将到来。最后，德国议会几周前刚刚批准了 2026 年预算，并将在本周批准近 30 项总额约 500 亿欧元的国防合同。财政刺激的影响将会到来；只是需要一些时间。</p>
</div><h3><strong>German economy should leave stagnation behind in 2026</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>德国经济应在 2026 年摆脱停滞</strong></h3>
</div><p>All in all, following the principle of 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best', today’s Ifo index reading doesn’t come as a surprise. To the contrary, it fits into our base case scenario that the German economy will end the year with yet another growthless quarter. However, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that the German economy will leave stagnation behind next year, even though any cyclical rebound should definitely not be mistaken for a structural improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，遵循 “为最坏情况做准备并希望最好” 的原则，今天的 Ifo 指数读数并不令人惊讶。相反，它符合我们的基本情景，即德国经济将在又一个没有增长的季度结束这一年。然而，有足够的证据表明，德国经济明年将摆脱停滞，尽管任何周期性反弹绝对不应被误认为是结构性改善。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>ECB Preview: Driving Home For Christmas</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行预览：为圣诞节回家</p>
</div><p>The Global Economy Is Cooking, But The Kitchen’s In Chaos</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球经济正在升温，但厨房一片混乱</p>
</div><p>German Exports Stagnate In October</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国出口在十月停滞不前</p>
</div>

12 月的 Ifo 指数让弗里德里希·梅尔茨的圣诞树陷入困境