<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>英镑/美元因英国 CPI 降至 3.2% 而下跌</strong></h3>
<p>英镑/美元在英国通胀数据低于预期后下跌，这增强了市场对英国央行降息的预期，而美元则因投资者等待明天的美国通胀数据而上涨。</p>
<p>英镑预计将迎来自 11 月初以来最大的一日跌幅，因为投资者加大了对英国央行本周降息的押注。11 月英国 CPI 降至 3.2%，为自 3 月以来的最低水平，低于 10 月的 3.6%。</p>
<p>本周早些时候的数据还显示，英国劳动力市场正在放缓，失业率达到了自 2021 年以来的最高水平，私营部门工资增长在预算前的五年中最为疲软。</p>
<p>通胀降温，加上工资增长放缓和预算的去通胀效应，意味着周四降息 25 个基点几乎是板上钉钉的事。</p>
<p>市场还提高了对明年降息的预期，预计将有两次降息完全定价，并有 72% 的机会出现第三次降息。</p>
<p>在数据公布后，英国国债收益率下跌，导致英镑走低。</p>
<p>与此同时，美元上涨，但仍接近自 10 月初以来的最低水平，该水平在周二达到。美元指数今年下跌约 9.5%，有望创下 2017 年以来最大年度跌幅。交易者期待周四的美国通胀数据，以获取有关美联储下一步行动的更多线索，此前昨日的就业数据喜忧参半。</p>
<p>预计 11 月美国 CPI 将保持在 3% 的同比水平。如果 CPI 符合预期，美联储在接下来的几次会议上将不会感受到降息的压力。</p>
<p>你昨天看到了一些有趣的表格数据，显示美国在 11 月新增了 64,000 个就业岗位，但失业率也上升至 4.6%。</p>
<h3><strong>英镑/美元预测 - 技术分析</strong></h3>
<p>英镑/美元从 11 月的 1.30 低点反弹，在 1.3455 遇到阻力后急剧回落。价格跌破 200 日均线，这与看跌吞没蜡烛相结合，使卖方对进一步下跌充满希望。</p>
<p>卖方将寻求在 200 日均线下方收盘，将下行延伸至 1.3250，即 50 日均线和水平支撑。若跌破此处，将使 1.32 和 8 月低点 1.3140 成为关注点。</p>
<p>买方需要突破 200 日均线和 1.3355 的水平阻力。若价格上涨至 1.3455 以上，将形成更高的高点，并将 1.35 纳入关注范围。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="964" height="605" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>油价因美委紧张局势升级而飙升。</strong></h3>
<p>周三油价上涨 2%，因风险溢价上升和供应担忧加剧，此前特朗普总统下令封锁与委内瑞拉相关的受制裁油轮。这可能影响每天 59 万桶的石油供应，其中大部分将运往中国。</p>
<p>此举是在上周对委内瑞拉海岸的黑名单油轮进行扣押后，以及美国在该地区增派军队的背景下进行的。</p>
<p>不过，涨幅可能会受到限制，因为投资者继续关注俄乌和平谈判。对和平协议的乐观情绪在最近几次交易中使油价大幅下跌。达成协议可能会导致俄罗斯的限制放松，并在市场已经担心明年供应过剩的情况下，油供应增加。</p>
<p>由于 OPEC+ 增加供应以扩大市场份额，以及中国作为最大石油进口国的需求疲软迹象，油价全年下跌。</p>
<p>EIA 原油库存数据将在今天晚些时候公布。</p>
<h3><strong>油价预测 - 技术分析</strong></h3>
<p>自 7 月中旬以来，油价在一个下行通道内交易。价格在 60.00 遇到阻力后回落，并跌至 55.00，这是自 2021 年 5 月以来的最低水平。价格在此处找到支撑，并已恢复至更高水平，尽管目前下行趋势仍然存在。</p>
<p>买方将寻求在 57.00 以上延续反弹，即 11 月高点，然后将 60.00 重新纳入关注范围，即 50 日均线、下行趋势线阻力和整数关口。若价格上涨至此处以上，将形成更高的高点，使 62.50 成为关注点。</p>
<p>卖方将寻求跌破 55.00 以延续看跌趋势，形成更低的低点，并将 50.00 整数关口纳入关注范围。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="966" height="607" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
<p>关注的两个交易：欧元/美元，油价预测 - 12 月 10 日，星期三</p>
<p>关注的两个交易：美元/日元，DAX 预测 - 12 月 9 日，星期二</p>
<p>关注的两个交易：DAX，英镑/美元预测 - 12 月 4 日，星期四</p>

<p>英镑/美元因英国通胀放缓而下跌，暗示英国央行可能降息。由于美国与委内瑞拉的紧张关系影响供应，油价上涨。英镑/美元的技术分析显示可能进一步下跌，而油价在 60.00 美元面临阻力，买家则希望在 57.00 美元以上实现反弹</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>GBP/USD slumps as UK CPI cools to 3.2%</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>英镑/美元因英国 CPI 降至 3.2% 而下跌</strong></h3>
</div><p>GBP/USD is falling after cooler-than-expected UK inflation data reinforced expectations of a BOE rate cut, while the US dollar rose as investors await US inflation data tomorrow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑/美元在英国通胀数据低于预期后下跌，这增强了市场对英国央行降息的预期，而美元则因投资者等待明天的美国通胀数据而上涨。</p>
</div><p>Sterling is set for its largest one-day decline since early November as investors added to bets that the BOE will cut rates this week. UK CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY in November, its lowest level since March and down from 3.6% in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑预计将迎来自 11 月初以来最大的一日跌幅，因为投资者加大了对英国央行本周降息的押注。11 月英国 CPI 降至 3.2%，为自 3 月以来的最低水平，低于 10 月的 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Data from earlier in the week also indicated that the UK labour market was softening, as the unemployment rate reached its highest level since 2021 and private-sector pay growth was the weakest in almost five years in the run-up to the budget.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周早些时候的数据还显示，英国劳动力市场正在放缓，失业率达到了自 2021 年以来的最高水平，私营部门工资增长在预算前的五年中最为疲软。</p>
</div><p>Cooler inflation, combined with easing wage growth and the disinflationary effects of the Budget, means a 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday is effectively a done deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀降温，加上工资增长放缓和预算的去通胀效应，意味着周四降息 25 个基点几乎是板上钉钉的事。</p>
</div><p>The market has also lifted expectations for next year's rate cuts, with two fully priced in and a 72% chance of a third.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场还提高了对明年降息的预期，预计将有两次降息完全定价，并有 72% 的机会出现第三次降息。</p>
</div><p>Gilt yields fell following the data, pulling GBP lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在数据公布后，英国国债收益率下跌，导致英镑走低。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the USD is rising but remains close to its lowest level since early October, which it reached on Tuesday. The US dollar index is down around 9.5% this year, on track for its steepest annual declines in 2017. Traders are looking ahead to US inflation data on Thursday for more clues over the Fed's next move following mixed jobs data yesterday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美元上涨，但仍接近自 10 月初以来的最低水平，该水平在周二达到。美元指数今年下跌约 9.5%，有望创下 2017 年以来最大年度跌幅。交易者期待周四的美国通胀数据，以获取有关美联储下一步行动的更多线索，此前昨日的就业数据喜忧参半。</p>
</div><p>USCPI is expected to remain at 3% year-on-year in November. If CPI comes in line with expectations, the Fed will not feel the pressure to cut rates again in the next few meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 11 月美国 CPI 将保持在 3% 的同比水平。如果 CPI 符合预期，美联储在接下来的几次会议上将不会感受到降息的压力。</p>
</div><p>You had some fun table data yesterday, showing the US added 64,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你昨天看到了一些有趣的表格数据，显示美国在 11 月新增了 64,000 个就业岗位，但失业率也上升至 4.6%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>英镑/美元预测 - 技术分析</strong></h3>
</div><p>GBP/USD recovered from the 1.30 November low, running into resistance at 1.3455 before rebounding sharply lower. The price broke below the 200 SMA, which, together with the bearish engulfing candle, keeps sellers hopeful of further declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑/美元从 11 月的 1.30 低点反弹，在 1.3455 遇到阻力后急剧回落。价格跌破 200 日均线，这与看跌吞没蜡烛相结合，使卖方对进一步下跌充满希望。</p>
</div><p>Sellers will seek to settle below the 200 SMA, extending the move lower to 1.3250, the 50 SMA, and horizontal support. A break below here brings 1.32 into play and 1.3140, the August low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卖方将寻求在 200 日均线下方收盘，将下行延伸至 1.3250，即 50 日均线和水平支撑。若跌破此处，将使 1.32 和 8 月低点 1.3140 成为关注点。</p>
</div><p>Buyers would need to overcome the 200 SMA and the horizontal resistance at 1.3355. A rise above 1.3455 is needed to create a higher high and bring 1.35 into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>买方需要突破 200 日均线和 1.3355 的水平阻力。若价格上涨至 1.3455 以上，将形成更高的高点，并将 1.35 纳入关注范围。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Oil prices jump as U.S.- Venezuela tensions intensify.</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>油价因美委紧张局势升级而飙升。</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oil has jumped2% on Wednesday, lifted by a rising risk premium and supply concerns after President Trump ordered the blockade of sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela. This could affect 590k barrels of oil supply a day, much of which is destined for China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三油价上涨 2%，因风险溢价上升和供应担忧加剧，此前特朗普总统下令封锁与委内瑞拉相关的受制裁油轮。这可能影响每天 59 万桶的石油供应，其中大部分将运往中国。</p>
</div><p>The move follows the seizure of blacklisted oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela last week and an increase in US military personnel in the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此举是在上周对委内瑞拉海岸的黑名单油轮进行扣押后，以及美国在该地区增派军队的背景下进行的。</p>
</div><p>Still, gains could be limited as investors continue to watch the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Optimism of a peace deal pulled oil prices sharply lower in recent sessions. An agreement could see Russian restrictions ease and oil supply rise at a time when the markets are already concerned about a supply glut next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，涨幅可能会受到限制，因为投资者继续关注俄乌和平谈判。对和平协议的乐观情绪在最近几次交易中使油价大幅下跌。达成协议可能会导致俄罗斯的限制放松，并在市场已经担心明年供应过剩的情况下，油供应增加。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices have fallen throughout the year as OPEC+ has ramped up supply to increase market share and as signs of demand weakness emerge in China, the largest oil importer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 OPEC+ 增加供应以扩大市场份额，以及中国作为最大石油进口国的需求疲软迹象，油价全年下跌。</p>
</div><p>EIA crude oil inventory data is due later today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EIA 原油库存数据将在今天晚些时候公布。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Oil forecast- technical analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>油价预测 - 技术分析</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oil trades within a falling channel since mid-July. The price faced resistance at 60.00, rebounded lower, and dropped to 55.00, a level last seen in May 2021. The price found support here and has recovered to higher levels, although the downtrend remains intact for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 7 月中旬以来，油价在一个下行通道内交易。价格在 60.00 遇到阻力后回落，并跌至 55.00，这是自 2021 年 5 月以来的最低水平。价格在此处找到支撑，并已恢复至更高水平，尽管目前下行趋势仍然存在。</p>
</div><p>Buyers will look to extend the recovery above 57.00, the November high, before bringing 60.00 back into focus, the 50 SMA, the falling trendline resistance, and the round number. A rise above here creates a higher high, bringing 62.50 into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>买方将寻求在 57.00 以上延续反弹，即 11 月高点，然后将 60.00 重新纳入关注范围，即 50 日均线、下行趋势线阻力和整数关口。若价格上涨至此处以上，将形成更高的高点，使 62.50 成为关注点。</p>
</div><p>Sellers will look to break below 55.00 to extend the bearish trend, creating a lower low and bringing 50.00 round number into play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卖方将寻求跌破 55.00 以延续看跌趋势，形成更低的低点，并将 50.00 整数关口纳入关注范围。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png"/></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
</div><p>Two Trades To Watch: EUR/USD, Oil Forecast - Wednesday, Dec. 10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关注的两个交易：欧元/美元，油价预测 - 12 月 10 日，星期三</p>
</div><p>Two Trades To Watch: USD/JPY, DAX Forecast - Tuesday, Dec. 9</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关注的两个交易：美元/日元，DAX 预测 - 12 月 9 日，星期二</p>
</div><p>Two Trades To Watch: DAX, GBP/USD Forecast - Thursday, Dec. 4</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关注的两个交易：DAX，英镑/美元预测 - 12 月 4 日，星期四</p>
</div>

两个值得关注的交易：英镑兑美元，石油预测 - 星期三，12 月 17 日