<p>作者：Emily Bary</p>
<p>“历史表明，英伟达在接下来的大约两个月内应该会适度超越礼来，” DataTrek 的一位分析师指出，但有一些警告。</p>
<p>礼来的股票今年表现优于英伟达，尤其是在最近几周表现尤为明显。</p>
<p>最近对医疗保健股票的轮换以及对热门科技股的抛售，可以通过礼来股票相对于英伟达股票的强劲表现来体现。</p>
<p>自科技板块在 10 月 29 日达到峰值以来，礼来股票（LLY）上涨了约 30%，而英伟达（NVDA）则下跌了约 14%。</p>
<p>DataTrek 的联合创始人 Jessica Rabe 在周三的报告中进一步阐述了这一趋势，提到在 11 月 25 日，礼来的 50 天回报超过英伟达 43.5 个基点，或超过长期平均水平的两个标准差。这种情况自 2010 年以来仅发生在 1.5% 的交易日中。</p>
<p>不要错过：礼来的最新减肥药缓解了膝关节骨关节炎患者的疼痛。</p>
<p>对于英伟达的投资者来说，这可能是一个充满希望的迹象，但也有一些警告。Rabe 写道：“自 2010 年以来，当礼来在任何给定的 50 天期间超越英伟达超过两个标准差时，后者在接下来的 50 天内平均超越了 2.3 个百分点。”</p>
<p>但她警告说，她的观察更多是为了说明科技板块的 “极端轮换”，而不是作为对英伟达股票的买入建议。</p>
<p>毕竟，“历史表明，英伟达在接下来的大约两个月内应该会适度超越礼来，但请记住，历史上英伟达超越的机会不到 50%，” 她指出——自 2010 年初以来，当相对基础上存在正向 50 天回报的情况时，英伟达的实际胜率仅为 44%。</p>
<p>阅读：英伟达的股票如何从这一新兴的 AI 模型趋势中受益。</p>
<p>Rabe 还考察了更广泛的医疗保健板块 XX:SP500.35 与更广泛的科技板块 XX:SP500.45 的近期表现。她指出，医疗保健板块的 “高度不寻常” 的超越超过两个标准差，这也发生在 11 月 25 日。在历史上出现这种动态的情况下，科技板块在接下来的 50 天内平均超越了 11.3 个百分点。</p>
<p>“历史强烈表明，美国大型医疗保健相对于科技是被高估的，而后者在接下来的大约两个月内应该会超越，” Rabe 指出。虽然 2022 年趋势并未如此发展，但她暗示当前的降息周期可能会使科技股受益。</p>
<p>然而，周三的价格走势突显了由于对 AI 交易健康状况的担忧，科技股持续表现不佳。礼来的股票在下午交易中下跌超过 1%，而英伟达的股票下跌超过 3%。</p>
<p>礼来的股票在年初至今的表现也超过了英伟达，涨幅为 35%，而芯片制造商的涨幅为 28%。</p>
<p>另见：华尔街唯一的英伟达看空者正在加倍押注他的观点，信心十足。</p>
<p>-Emily Bary</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>12-17-25 1428ET</p>

礼来

<p>礼来的股票最近表现显著优于英伟达，自 10 月 29 日以来上涨了 30%，而英伟达则下跌了 14%。DataTrek 的分析师 Jessica Rabe 指出，历史上，在出现这种偏差后，英伟达在接下来的两个月内通常会适度优于礼来。然而，英伟达超越的可能性不到 50%。更广泛的医疗保健行业也优于科技行业，但历史表明科技行业可能在接下来的两个月内反弹。最近的市场行动显示科技行业持续表现不佳</p>

<p>By Emily Bary</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Emily Bary</p>
</div><p>'History suggests Nvidia should modestly beat Eli Lilly over the next roughly two months,' notes a DataTrek analyst - but there are some caveats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“历史表明，英伟达在接下来的大约两个月内应该会适度超越礼来，” DataTrek 的一位分析师指出，但有一些警告。</p>
</div><p>Eli Lilly's stock has beaten Nvidia's this year, and the outperformance has been especially sharp in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来的股票今年表现优于英伟达，尤其是在最近几周表现尤为明显。</p>
</div><p>The recent rotation into healthcare stocks and out of hot technology plays can be epitomized by the strong outperformance of Eli Lilly shares relative to Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近对医疗保健股票的轮换以及对热门科技股的抛售，可以通过礼来股票相对于英伟达股票的强劲表现来体现。</p>
</div><p>Since the tech sector peaked on Oct. 29, Lilly's stock (LLY) has climbed about 30%, while Nvidia's (NVDA) has lost roughly 14%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自科技板块在 10 月 29 日达到峰值以来，礼来股票（LLY）上涨了约 30%，而英伟达（NVDA）则下跌了约 14%。</p>
</div><p>DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe expanded upon the trend in a Wednesday note - mentioning that on Nov. 25, Eli Lilly's 50-day return exceeded Nvidia's by 43.5 basis points, or more than two standard deviations away from the long-term average. That's only happened on 1.5% of trading days going back to 2010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DataTrek 的联合创始人 Jessica Rabe 在周三的报告中进一步阐述了这一趋势，提到在 11 月 25 日，礼来的 50 天回报超过英伟达 43.5 个基点，或超过长期平均水平的两个标准差。这种情况自 2010 年以来仅发生在 1.5% 的交易日中。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Eli Lilly's newest weight-loss drug relieved pain in patients with knee osteoarthritis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：礼来的最新减肥药缓解了膝关节骨关节炎患者的疼痛。</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia investors, it's a potentially hopeful sign - with some caveats. &#34;When Eli Lilly has beaten Nvidia by more than two standard deviations over any given 50-day period since 2010, the latter has gone on to outperform by an average of 2.3 points over the next 50 days,&#34; Rabe wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于英伟达的投资者来说，这可能是一个充满希望的迹象，但也有一些警告。Rabe 写道：“自 2010 年以来，当礼来在任何给定的 50 天期间超越英伟达超过两个标准差时，后者在接下来的 50 天内平均超越了 2.3 个百分点。”</p>
</div><p>But she cautioned that her observation was meant more to illustrate the &#34;extreme rotation&#34; out of the tech sector, and not to serve as a buy recommendation on Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但她警告说，她的观察更多是为了说明科技板块的 “极端轮换”，而不是作为对英伟达股票的买入建议。</p>
</div><p>After all, &#34;history suggests Nvidia should modestly beat Eli Lilly over the next roughly two months, but bear in mind the chances of [Nvidia] outperforming is less than a coin flip historically,&#34; she noted - as the actual win rate for Nvidia, when looking at instances where there was a positive forward 50-date return on a relative basis, has only been 44% since the start of 2010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，“历史表明，英伟达在接下来的大约两个月内应该会适度超越礼来，但请记住，历史上英伟达超越的机会不到 50%，” 她指出——自 2010 年初以来，当相对基础上存在正向 50 天回报的情况时，英伟达的实际胜率仅为 44%。</p>
</div><p>Read: How Nvidia's stock can benefit from this emerging trend in AI models</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：英伟达的股票如何从这一新兴的 AI 模型趋势中受益。</p>
</div><p>Rabe also examined the recent performance of the broader healthcare sector XX:SP500.35 versus the broader tech sector XX:SP500.45. Zooming out, she flagged the healthcare sector's &#34;highly unusual&#34; outperformance by more than two standard deviations, which also occurred on Nov. 25. In historical instances where that dynamic unfolded, the tech sector went on to deliver 11.3 points worth of outperformance in the following 50 days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rabe 还考察了更广泛的医疗保健板块 XX:SP500.35 与更广泛的科技板块 XX:SP500.45 的近期表现。她指出，医疗保健板块的 “高度不寻常” 的超越超过两个标准差，这也发生在 11 月 25 日。在历史上出现这种动态的情况下，科技板块在接下来的 50 天内平均超越了 11.3 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;History strongly suggests U.S. large-cap healthcare is overbought relative to tech and the latter should outperform over the next roughly two months,&#34; Rabe noted. While trends didn't play out that way back in 2022, she implied the ongoing interest-rate-cutting cycle could benefit tech stocks nowadays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“历史强烈表明，美国大型医疗保健相对于科技是被高估的，而后者在接下来的大约两个月内应该会超越，” Rabe 指出。虽然 2022 年趋势并未如此发展，但她暗示当前的降息周期可能会使科技股受益。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday's price action, however, highlights a continuation of tech underperformance spurred by concerns about the health of the AI trade. Eli Lilly's stock was off more than 1% in afternoon action, whiule Nvidia's was down more than 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，周三的价格走势突显了由于对 AI 交易健康状况的担忧，科技股持续表现不佳。礼来的股票在下午交易中下跌超过 1%，而英伟达的股票下跌超过 3%。</p>
</div><p>Eli Lilly's stock has also topped Nvidia's on a year-to-date basis, with a gain of 35% versus the chip maker's 28% rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来的股票在年初至今的表现也超过了英伟达，涨幅为 35%，而芯片制造商的涨幅为 28%。</p>
</div><p>See also: Wall Street's lone Nvidia bear is doubling down on his call, with high conviction</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见：华尔街唯一的英伟达看空者正在加倍押注他的观点，信心十足。</p>
</div><p>-Emily Bary</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Emily Bary</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>12-17-25 1428ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-17-25 1428ET</p>
</div>

礼来的股票在最近几周表现优于英伟达。历史对此有何启示