<p>当唐纳德·特朗普在 2025 年 1 月宣誓就职时，他明确表明了他的能源议程，誓言在口号 “钻探，宝贝，钻探” 的号召下释放美国的石油生产。</p>
<p><strong>• State Street 能源精选行业 SPDR ETF 股票正在积累积极的动能。是什么推动 XLE 股票上涨？</strong></p>
<p>很少有人能预见到这一承诺会如此迅速地开始重塑能源市场，或者不到一年后会出现的意想不到的后果。</p>
<p>在 1 月 20 日的就职演说中宣布国家能源紧急状态时，特朗普将通货膨胀归咎于 “巨额超支和不断上涨的能源价格”，承诺加速国内钻探，并利用他所称的国家 “液体黄金” 的巨大储备。</p>
<p>快进到 2025 年 12 月中旬，油价徘徊在每桶 55 美元附近——这是近五年来的最低水平，年初至今下降了大约 25%。</p>
<p>虽然便宜的石油为消费者带来了缓解，但也引入了一个新问题：在这些价格下，抽取原油对美国大部分生产商来说已不再盈利。</p>
<p>结果是越来越多的担忧，国内石油行业的部分地区可能被迫缩减或完全关闭。</p>
<h2><strong>钻探，宝贝，钻探在数学上失利，因为盈亏平衡油价高于市场水平</strong></h2>
<p>本周，美国能源股票因油价跌至 55 美元水平而大幅下跌，发出了华尔街研究部门的警告信号。</p>
<p><strong>能源精选行业 SPDR 基金</strong> (NYSE: XLE) 周二下跌 3%，创下自 6 月底以来的最差表现。</p>
<p>根据达拉斯联邦储备银行 2025 年 12 月的调查，当 WTI 原油价格跌至每桶 61 美元以下时，大多数美国石油公司难以盈利地钻探新井。</p>
<p>“只有大型独立公司或石油巨头才能在低价环境中维持生产水平，”<strong>Johannes Rauball</strong>，Kpler 的原油分析师告诉 Benzinga。</p>
<p>“如果每个人都被平等对待，美国的平均盈亏平衡点略高于每桶 60 美元，因此确实会影响到相当多的参与者，” Rauball 补充道。</p>
<p>他指出，较小的私人生产商尤其脆弱，因为他们缺乏规模和先进技术的接入，这使得大型公司能够在较低价格下更高效地运营。</p>
<h2><strong>油价 55 美元：谁能生存，谁在挣扎</strong></h2>
<p>能源分析师 <strong>Jeff Krimmel</strong>，Krimmel 战略集团的创始人，告诉 Benzinga，虽然一些运营商在油价低于每桶 50 美元时仍能盈利，但其他公司面临着越来越大的压力。</p>
<p>根据 Krimmel 的说法，像 <strong>EOG Resources</strong> (NYSE: EOG) 和 <strong>Diamondback Energy</strong> (NASDAQ: FANG) 这样的公司即使油价跌至每桶 50 美元以下也 “有足够的余地”。</p>
<p>相比之下，<strong>Ovintiv</strong> (NYSE: OVV)、<strong>Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO)</strong>、<strong>Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR)</strong> 和 <strong>Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)</strong> 在该水平或以下可能会报告亏损。</p>
<p>“我预计 EOG 和 Diamondback 在这个低油价环境中会比 Murphy 和 Occidental 有更多的选择，” Krimmel 告诉 Benzinga。</p>
<p>从更广泛的市场来看，Krimmel 指出，油市在 2025 年大部分时间处于过剩状态——预计这种情况将持续到 2026 年大部分时间。</p>
<p>“我认为价格反映了这一现实，” 他说。“这种市场动态是众所周知的，常常被讨论。”</p>
<p>尽管如此，Krimmel 认为市场情绪普遍转向看跌，留下了反弹的空间。</p>
<p>“如果我必须猜测下一个五美元的变动是上涨还是下跌，我会猜测是上涨，” 他说。“即使是小的积极意外也可能使油价从这里回升。”</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>估计盈亏平衡 WTI 价格 ($/桶)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>EOG Resources</strong></td>
<td>$30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Diamondback Energy</strong></td>
<td>$35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>ConocoPhillips</strong></td>
<td>$45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Devon Energy</strong> <strong>Corp.</strong> (NYSE: DVN)</td>
<td>$47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Permian Resources Corp.</strong> (NYSE: PR)</td>
<td>$47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Coterra Energy</strong></td>
<td>$50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Ovintiv</strong></td>
<td>$55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Oil</strong></td>
<td>$56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Murphy Oil</strong></td>
<td>$57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong></td>
<td>$58</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>来源：Jeff Krimmel</em></p>
<h2><strong>俄罗斯 - 乌克兰和平协议是否已经被市场定价？</strong></h2>
<p>Krimmel 还讨论了油市是否在考虑俄罗斯 - 乌克兰和平协议的可能性。</p>
<p>“我相信近期的和平协议已经被市场定价，” 他说，并指出投资者正在密切关注特朗普政府促成冲突结束的努力。</p>
<p>“由于特朗普总统亲自参与，我认为市场相信某种形式的和平将在近期内实现，” Krimmel 说。</p>
<p>根据 Polymarket，交易者目前认为到 2026 年 3 月 31 日签署俄罗斯 - 乌克兰和平协议的概率仅为 25%。</p>
<p>目前，油价在 55 美元测试美国页岩的极限，揭示了哪些生产商能够承受长期的低迷，以及哪些可能无法承受 “钻探，宝贝，钻探” 的后果。</p>
<p><strong>立即阅读：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>圣诞拉力赛即将来临：这 5 只股票常常给投资者带来惊喜</li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

EOG能源

Diamondback能源

<p>油价在每桶 55 美元的水平对美国生产商构成挑战，因为许多生产商难以实现盈亏平衡。特朗普的能源议程 “钻探，宝贝，钻探” 面临低价格对页岩股票和生存几率的影响而遇到障碍。大型独立公司和主要公司能够维持生产，而较小的生产商则面临压力。分析师预测价格可能反弹，受市场过剩和地缘政治因素（如俄乌和平谈判）的影响。EOG Resources 和 Diamondback Energy 仍然盈利，而 Ovintiv 和 Occidental Petroleum 等公司可能会遭受损失</p>

<p>When Donald Trump took the presidential oath of office in January 2025, he made his energy agenda unmistakably clear, vowing to unleash American oil production under the rallying cry, &#34;Drill, baby, drill.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当唐纳德·特朗普在 2025 年 1 月宣誓就职时，他明确表明了他的能源议程，誓言在口号 “钻探，宝贝，钻探” 的号召下释放美国的石油生产。</p>
</div><p><strong>• State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF stock is building positive momentum. What’s driving XLE shares up?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>• State Street 能源精选行业 SPDR ETF 股票正在积累积极的动能。是什么推动 XLE 股票上涨？</strong></p>
</div><p>Few could have anticipated how quickly that promise would begin reshaping the energy market, or the unintended consequences that would emerge less than a year later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有人能预见到这一承诺会如此迅速地开始重塑能源市场，或者不到一年后会出现的意想不到的后果。</p>
</div><p>Declaring a national energy emergency during his Jan. 20 inaugural address, Trump blamed inflation on &#34;massive overspending and escalating energy prices,&#34; pledging to accelerate domestic drilling and tap what he called the nation's vast reserves of &#34;liquid gold.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1 月 20 日的就职演说中宣布国家能源紧急状态时，特朗普将通货膨胀归咎于 “巨额超支和不断上涨的能源价格”，承诺加速国内钻探，并利用他所称的国家 “液体黄金” 的巨大储备。</p>
</div><p>Fast forward to mid-December 2025, and oil prices are hovering near $55 a barrel — the lowest level in nearly five years and down roughly 25% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快进到 2025 年 12 月中旬，油价徘徊在每桶 55 美元附近——这是近五年来的最低水平，年初至今下降了大约 25%。</p>
</div><p>While cheaper oil has delivered relief to consumers, it has also introduced a new problem: at these prices, pumping crude is no longer profitable for a large segment of U.S. producers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然便宜的石油为消费者带来了缓解，但也引入了一个新问题：在这些价格下，抽取原油对美国大部分生产商来说已不再盈利。</p>
</div><p>The result is growing concern that parts of the domestic oil industry could be forced to scale back or shut down altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是越来越多的担忧，国内石油行业的部分地区可能被迫缩减或完全关闭。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Drill, Baby, Drill Falls Short On Math As Breakeven Oil Prices Are Above Market Levels</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>钻探，宝贝，钻探在数学上失利，因为盈亏平衡油价高于市场水平</strong></h2>
</div><p>U.S. energy stocks sold off sharply this week as oil slipped to the $55 level, setting off warning signals across Wall Street research desks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，美国能源股票因油价跌至 55 美元水平而大幅下跌，发出了华尔街研究部门的警告信号。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> (NYSE: XLE) tumbled 3% on Tuesday, marking its worst session since late June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>能源精选行业 SPDR 基金</strong> (NYSE: XLE) 周二下跌 3%，创下自 6 月底以来的最差表现。</p>
</div><p>According to a December 2025 survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve, when WTI crude falls below $61 per barrel, most U.S. oil companies struggle to profitably drill new wells.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据达拉斯联邦储备银行 2025 年 12 月的调查，当 WTI 原油价格跌至每桶 61 美元以下时，大多数美国石油公司难以盈利地钻探新井。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Only large independents or oil majors can sustain production levels in a lower price environment,&#34; <strong>Johannes Rauball</strong>, crude oil analyst at Kpler, told Benzinga.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“只有大型独立公司或石油巨头才能在低价环境中维持生产水平，”<strong>Johannes Rauball</strong>，Kpler 的原油分析师告诉 Benzinga。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The average U.S. breakeven, if everyone is treated equally, is slightly above $60 per barrel, so it does impact quite a few players,&#34; Rauball added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果每个人都被平等对待，美国的平均盈亏平衡点略高于每桶 60 美元，因此确实会影响到相当多的参与者，” Rauball 补充道。</p>
</div><p>Smaller private producers are particularly vulnerable, he noted, as they lack the scale and access to advanced technologies that allow larger firms to operate more efficiently at lower prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，较小的私人生产商尤其脆弱，因为他们缺乏规模和先进技术的接入，这使得大型公司能够在较低价格下更高效地运营。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Oil At $55: Who Survives, Who Struggles</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>油价 55 美元：谁能生存，谁在挣扎</strong></h2>
</div><p>Energy analyst <strong>Jeff Krimmel,</strong> founder of Krimmel Strategy Group, told Benzinga that while some operators can still turn a profit with oil below $50 per barrel, others face mounting pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源分析师 <strong>Jeff Krimmel</strong>，Krimmel 战略集团的创始人，告诉 Benzinga，虽然一些运营商在油价低于每桶 50 美元时仍能盈利，但其他公司面临着越来越大的压力。</p>
</div><p>According to Krimmel, companies such as <strong>EOG Resources</strong> (NYSE: EOG) and <strong>Diamondback Energy</strong> (NASDAQ: FANG) have &#34;plenty of room to spare&#34; even if oil prices fall below $50 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Krimmel 的说法，像 <strong>EOG Resources</strong> (NYSE: EOG) 和 <strong>Diamondback Energy</strong> (NASDAQ: FANG) 这样的公司即使油价跌至每桶 50 美元以下也 “有足够的余地”。</p>
</div><p>By contrast, <strong>Ovintiv</strong> (NYSE: OVV), <strong>Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO)</strong>, <strong>Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR)</strong> and <strong>Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)</strong> would likely report losses at or below that level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，<strong>Ovintiv</strong> (NYSE: OVV)、<strong>Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO)</strong>、<strong>Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR)</strong> 和 <strong>Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)</strong> 在该水平或以下可能会报告亏损。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I'd expect EOG and Diamondback to have more optionality in this lower oil price environment than Murphy and Occidental do,&#34; Krimmel told Benzinga.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我预计 EOG 和 Diamondback 在这个低油价环境中会比 Murphy 和 Occidental 有更多的选择，” Krimmel 告诉 Benzinga。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the broader market, Krimmel indicated that oil markets have been in surplus for most of 2025 — a condition expected to persist through much of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从更广泛的市场来看，Krimmel 指出，油市在 2025 年大部分时间处于过剩状态——预计这种情况将持续到 2026 年大部分时间。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I would argue prices reflect this reality,&#34; he said. &#34;This market dynamic is well known and often discussed.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为价格反映了这一现实，” 他说。“这种市场动态是众所周知的，常常被讨论。”</p>
</div><p>Still, Krimmel believed sentiment turned broadly bearish, leaving room for a rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，Krimmel 认为市场情绪普遍转向看跌，留下了反弹的空间。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If I had to guess whether the next five-dollar move is up or down, I would guess it's up,&#34; he said. &#34;Even small positive surprises could move oil prices back up from here.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果我必须猜测下一个五美元的变动是上涨还是下跌，我会猜测是上涨，” 他说。“即使是小的积极意外也可能使油价从这里回升。”</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Estimated Breakeven WTI Price ($/bbl)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>EOG Resources</strong></td>
<td>$30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Diamondback Energy</strong></td>
<td>$35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>ConocoPhillips</strong></td>
<td>$45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Devon Energy</strong> <strong>Corp.</strong> (NYSE: DVN)</td>
<td>$47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Permian Resources Corp.</strong> (NYSE: PR)</td>
<td>$47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Coterra Energy</strong></td>
<td>$50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Ovintiv</strong></td>
<td>$55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Oil</strong></td>
<td>$56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Murphy Oil</strong></td>
<td>$57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong></td>
<td>$58</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>估计盈亏平衡 WTI 价格 ($/桶)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>EOG Resources</strong></td>
<td>$30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Diamondback Energy</strong></td>
<td>$35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>ConocoPhillips</strong></td>
<td>$45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Devon Energy</strong> <strong>Corp.</strong> (NYSE: DVN)</td>
<td>$47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Permian Resources Corp.</strong> (NYSE: PR)</td>
<td>$47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Coterra Energy</strong></td>
<td>$50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Ovintiv</strong></td>
<td>$55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Oil</strong></td>
<td>$56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Murphy Oil</strong></td>
<td>$57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong></td>
<td>$58</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><em>Source: Jeff Krimmel</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Jeff Krimmel</em></p>
</div><h2><strong>Is A Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Already Priced In?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>俄罗斯 - 乌克兰和平协议是否已经被市场定价？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Krimmel also addressed whether oil markets are factoring in the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Krimmel 还讨论了油市是否在考虑俄罗斯 - 乌克兰和平协议的可能性。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I believe a near-term peace deal is priced into markets,&#34; he said, noting that investors are closely watching the Trump administration's efforts to broker an end to the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我相信近期的和平协议已经被市场定价，” 他说，并指出投资者正在密切关注特朗普政府促成冲突结束的努力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;With President Trump so personally involved, I think markets believe some form of peace will materialize in the near term,&#34; Krimmel said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于特朗普总统亲自参与，我认为市场相信某种形式的和平将在近期内实现，” Krimmel 说。</p>
</div><p>According to Polymarket, traders are currently assigning just a 25% probability that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal will be signed by March 31, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Polymarket，交易者目前认为到 2026 年 3 月 31 日签署俄罗斯 - 乌克兰和平协议的概率仅为 25%。</p>
</div><p>For now, oil at $55 is testing the limits of U.S. shale, revealing which producers can endure a prolonged downturn, and which may not survive the consequences of &#34;drill, baby, drill.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，油价在 55 美元测试美国页岩的极限，揭示了哪些生产商能够承受长期的低迷，以及哪些可能无法承受 “钻探，宝贝，钻探” 的后果。</p>
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</div><ul>
<li>Santa Rally Looms: These 5 Stocks Often Deliver Gifts To Investors</li>
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<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
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</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

特朗普曾说 ‘钻探，宝贝，钻探’，而石油公司在原油价格为 55 美元时的回应是 ‘我们做不到’