<p>就在你认为创新生态系统正在吸收与人工智能相关的泡沫恐惧时，这些焦虑又卷土重来，导致像 <strong>Marvell Technology Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: MRVL) 这样的行业巨头受到冲击。从九月初到十二月初，MRVL 股票经历了一次显著的上涨，涨幅约为 41%。不幸的是，自 12 月 3 日收盘以来，MRVL 已下跌约 18%。</p>
<p>发生了什么？为了与我之前的分析保持一致，没有人真正知道影响价格发现的无数变量的具体组合。也就是说，主要的叙述似乎是由于 <strong>Oracle Corp</strong> (NYSE: ORCL) 及其最新的财报结果，重新引发了对人工智能泡沫的恐惧。</p>
<p>在这一关键披露之前，许多专家表示，结果和前瞻性指引可能会 为其他与人工智能相关的投资定下基调。这一分析被证明是先见之明，Oracle 向华尔街传递了 混合信号，导致多只半导体股票暴跌。主要的焦虑集中在人工智能支出的潜在过于雄心勃勃的性质上。</p>
<p>尽管如此，乐观的专家强调 机器学习仍处于早期阶段。事实上，几乎没有迹象表明对人工智能的兴趣正在减弱。如果说有什么变化，行业竞争正在加剧——尤其是在关键资源供应链领域。</p>
<p>此外，还有另一个理由让人对 MRVL 股票持乐观态度：所谓的 圣诞老人反弹。</p>
<p>历史上，从圣诞节到一月初的交易日，证券通常在交易量较轻、税务驱动的交易和年末乐观情绪的推动下上涨。虽然这一现象往往有利于长期行业巨头，而不是热门科技公司，但潜在的市场反身性可能会推动 MRVL 股票上涨。</p>
<p>如果这还不足以让你思考，还有另一个统计上的顺风可能会对 Marvell 有利。</p>
<h2>对 MRVL 股票的买入情绪可能会出现</h2>
<p>在涉及金融市场的大多数分析框架中，价格或价值被绘制为时间的函数。然而，它实际上应该是状态的函数。正如前面提到的，问题在于没有人知道影响价格发现的所有变量。使问题复杂的是，我们永远无法确定哪些指标更为重要。</p>
<p>虽然我们在理解市场行为的真实因果状态上处于劣势，但我们可以计算其预期影响。从这个意义上说，股票就像小行星。最终，我们不知道它们来自何处（即宇宙为什么会有剩余的岩石？），但我们可以估计如果发生碰撞会造成的损害。</p>
<p>虽然这可能是一种奇怪的方法，但我们可以将 MRVL 的价格数据的单一连续线段分割成多个滚动序列或试验。现在，我们不是在测量一颗巨大的小行星，而是将数据视为固定时间分布中的数百条小行星轨迹。这使我们能够测量这些小行星的中位潜在影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153707/MRVL-stock-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="422" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153707/MRVL-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>例如，如果我们查看自 2019 年 1 月以来 MRVL 股票的所有 10 周回报，中位分布大约在 $80 到 $88 之间（假设锚定价格为 $82）。此外，价格聚集可能主要集中在约 $84.80。</p>
<p>然而，我们感兴趣的是隔离当前的小行星模式，如果你愿意的话，就是 3-7-D 序列；在过去的 10 周中，MRVL 股票仅出现了三周上涨，导致整体下滑。</p>
<p>表面上看，这一卖压较重的序列暗示了负面情绪。然而，由于买入情绪，未来 10 周的回报——将回报分布从 $78 扩展到 $90。此外，价格聚集可能主要集中在 $85.80，比整体条件下高出一美元。</p>
<h2>使用风险几何学进行交易</h2>
<p>通过上述分布方法，我们可以预测，基于中位数，MRVL 股票在接下来的 10 周内可能会从约 $82 上涨到 $86。同样重要的是，过去的类比表明，虽然 MRVL 达到 $90 或以上并非不可能，但持续达到这一水平的概率极小。</p>
<p>这就是风险几何学，它揭示了在固定时间范围内风险和回报的结构。就我所知，这一见解仅通过分布视角下的定量分析获得，这就是我如此坚持这种方法的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153539/MRVL-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153539/MRVL-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>考虑到这一情况以及圣诞老人反弹可能带来的小帮助，我正在关注 2026 年 1 月 16 日到期的 85/87.50 看涨期权价差。这一赌注涉及在单次执行中进行两笔同时交易：买入 $85 看涨期权并卖出 $87.50 看涨期权，净支出为 $100（这是可能损失的最大金额）。</p>
<p>如果 MRVL 股票在到期时突破第二阶段行权价（$87.50），最大利润为$150，收益率为 150%。盈亏平衡点也在$86，这可以说是一个理想的阈值。</p>
<p>在$86 到$88 之间，概率密度可能会下降 75.67%。在这个统计前提下，进一步拉伸盈亏平衡阈值是没有意义的。如果这样做，概率衰减将会加速。</p>
<p>当你计算风险几何时，你就拥有了做出明智和高效决策的独特优势。</p>
<p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>下一篇：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：聪明资金如何悄然增持 Twilio 股票</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

迈威尔科技

<p>马威尔科技公司 (MRVL) 由于对人工智能泡沫的担忧重新浮现，受到甲骨文财报的影响，股价出现下跌。尽管如此，逆向情绪和圣诞老人反弹可能会推动 MRVL 股价上涨。分析师建议在接下来的 10 周内，股价有可能从 82 美元上涨至 86 美元，并推荐使用牛市看涨价差策略。买入回调的情绪和历史模式支持这一展望</p>

<p>Just when you thought the innovation ecosystem was absorbing bubble fears associated with artificial intelligence, the anxieties have come roaring back, taking down sector giants like <strong>Marvell Technology Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: MRVL). From the start of September to the beginning of December, MRVL stock went on a remarkable run, gaining approximately 41%. Unfortunately, since the close of Dec. 3, MRVL has dropped by around 18%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在你认为创新生态系统正在吸收与人工智能相关的泡沫恐惧时，这些焦虑又卷土重来，导致像 <strong>Marvell Technology Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: MRVL) 这样的行业巨头受到冲击。从九月初到十二月初，MRVL 股票经历了一次显著的上涨，涨幅约为 41%。不幸的是，自 12 月 3 日收盘以来，MRVL 已下跌约 18%。</p>
</div><p>What happened? To stay consistent with my prior analyses, no one truly knows the formulation of the gazillions of variables that go into price discovery. That said, the main narrative appears to be renewed AI bubble fears, in light of <strong>Oracle Corp</strong> (NYSE: ORCL) and its latest earnings results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>发生了什么？为了与我之前的分析保持一致，没有人真正知道影响价格发现的无数变量的具体组合。也就是说，主要的叙述似乎是由于 <strong>Oracle Corp</strong> (NYSE: ORCL) 及其最新的财报结果，重新引发了对人工智能泡沫的恐惧。</p>
</div><p>Prior to the critical disclosure, many experts articulated that the results and forward guidance could set the tone for other AI-adjacent investments. That analysis proved prescient, with Oracle delivering a mixed message to Wall Street, resulting in multiple semiconductor stocks tumbling. Mainly, the anxiety centered on the potentially overambitious nature of AI spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一关键披露之前，许多专家表示，结果和前瞻性指引可能会 为其他与人工智能相关的投资定下基调。这一分析被证明是先见之明，Oracle 向华尔街传递了 混合信号，导致多只半导体股票暴跌。主要的焦虑集中在人工智能支出的潜在过于雄心勃勃的性质上。</p>
</div><p>Still, bullish experts stress that machine learnings remains in the early innings. Indeed, there's little indication that interest in AI is waning. If anything, the sector is becoming more competitive — especially in the arena of critical resource supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，乐观的专家强调 机器学习仍处于早期阶段。事实上，几乎没有迹象表明对人工智能的兴趣正在减弱。如果说有什么变化，行业竞争正在加剧——尤其是在关键资源供应链领域。</p>
</div><p>Plus, there's another reason to think positively about MRVL stock: the so-called Santa Claus rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还有另一个理由让人对 MRVL 股票持乐观态度：所谓的 圣诞老人反弹。</p>
</div><p>Historically, the stretch between Christmas and the first trading days of January sees securities typically push higher amid lighter volumes, tax-driven trades and year-end optimism. While this phenomenon tends to benefit longstanding industry heavyweights as opposed to hot tech names, the underlying market reflexivity could potentially boost MRVL stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，从圣诞节到一月初的交易日，证券通常在交易量较轻、税务驱动的交易和年末乐观情绪的推动下上涨。虽然这一现象往往有利于长期行业巨头，而不是热门科技公司，但潜在的市场反身性可能会推动 MRVL 股票上涨。</p>
</div><p>If that wasn't enough to get you thinking, there's also another statistical tailwind that may smile on Marvell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这还不足以让你思考，还有另一个统计上的顺风可能会对 Marvell 有利。</p>
</div><h2>Buy-the-Dip Sentiments Could Emerge For MRVL Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 MRVL 股票的买入情绪可能会出现</h2>
</div><p>In most analytical frameworks involving the financial markets, price or value is plotted as a function of time. However, it really should be a function of state. The problem, as alluded to earlier, is that no one knows the collective variables that go into price discovery. What makes the matter difficult is that we can never be sure which metrics are weighted more importantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在涉及金融市场的大多数分析框架中，价格或价值被绘制为时间的函数。然而，它实际上应该是状态的函数。正如前面提到的，问题在于没有人知道影响价格发现的所有变量。使问题复杂的是，我们永远无法确定哪些指标更为重要。</p>
</div><p>While we're at a disadvantage in understanding the true causal state of market behavior, we can calculate its projected impact. In that sense, stocks are like asteroids. Ultimately, we don't know where they come from (i.e. why does the universe have leftover rocks?) but we can sure as heck estimate the damage they would cause if a collision were to occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我们在理解市场行为的真实因果状态上处于劣势，但我们可以计算其预期影响。从这个意义上说，股票就像小行星。最终，我们不知道它们来自何处（即宇宙为什么会有剩余的岩石？），但我们可以估计如果发生碰撞会造成的损害。</p>
</div><p>While it might be a strange methodology, we can take the single, continuous strand of MRVL's price data and split it into multiple rolling sequences or trials. Now, instead of measuring one giant asteroid, we view the data as hundreds of asteroid pathways in a fixed-time distribution. What that accomplishes is that we can measure the median potential impact of these asteroids.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这可能是一种奇怪的方法，但我们可以将 MRVL 的价格数据的单一连续线段分割成多个滚动序列或试验。现在，我们不是在测量一颗巨大的小行星，而是将数据视为固定时间分布中的数百条小行星轨迹。这使我们能够测量这些小行星的中位潜在影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153707/MRVL-stock-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153707/MRVL-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>For example, if we look at all 10-week returns of MRVL stock since January 2019, the median distribution would range between roughly $80 and $88 (assuming an anchor price of $82). Further, price clustering would likely be predominant at around $84.80.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，如果我们查看自 2019 年 1 月以来 MRVL 股票的所有 10 周回报，中位分布大约在 $80 到 $88 之间（假设锚定价格为 $82）。此外，价格聚集可能主要集中在约 $84.80。</p>
</div><p>However, we're interested in isolating for the current asteroid pattern, if you will, which is the 3-7-D sequence; in the trailing 10 weeks, MRVL stock printed only three up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我们感兴趣的是隔离当前的小行星模式，如果你愿意的话，就是 3-7-D 序列；在过去的 10 周中，MRVL 股票仅出现了三周上涨，导致整体下滑。</p>
</div><p>On the surface, this selling-pressure-heavy sequence implies negativity. However, the forward 10-week returns — thanks to buy-the-dip sentiments — stretch the distribution of returns from $78 to $90. Moreover, price clustering would likely be predominant at $85.80, a buck higher than under aggregate conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>表面上看，这一卖压较重的序列暗示了负面情绪。然而，由于买入情绪，未来 10 周的回报——将回报分布从 $78 扩展到 $90。此外，价格聚集可能主要集中在 $85.80，比整体条件下高出一美元。</p>
</div><h2>Using Risk Geometry To Place A Trade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>使用风险几何学进行交易</h2>
</div><p>With the above distributional approach, we can project that, on a median basis, MRVL stock is likely to march from around $82 to $86 over the next 10 weeks. Just as importantly, past analogs indicate that, while it's not impossible for MRVL to hit $90 or above, the probability of doing so on a sustained basis is minimal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过上述分布方法，我们可以预测，基于中位数，MRVL 股票在接下来的 10 周内可能会从约 $82 上涨到 $86。同样重要的是，过去的类比表明，虽然 MRVL 达到 $90 或以上并非不可能，但持续达到这一水平的概率极小。</p>
</div><p>That's risk geometry, which reveals the structure of risk and reward across a fixed-time horizon. As far as I'm aware, this insight is only available through quantitative analysis under a distributional lens, which is why I'm so adamant about this approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是风险几何学，它揭示了在固定时间范围内风险和回报的结构。就我所知，这一见解仅通过分布视角下的定量分析获得，这就是我如此坚持这种方法的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153539/MRVL-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/17153539/MRVL-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>Given this picture and the possibility of a little help from the Santa Claus rally, I'm looking at the 85/87.50 bull call spread expiring Jan. 16, 2026. This wager involves two simultaneous transactions on a single execution: buy the $85 call and sell the $87.50 call, for a net debit paid of $100 (the most that can be lost).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一情况以及圣诞老人反弹可能带来的小帮助，我正在关注 2026 年 1 月 16 日到期的 85/87.50 看涨期权价差。这一赌注涉及在单次执行中进行两笔同时交易：买入 $85 看涨期权并卖出 $87.50 看涨期权，净支出为 $100（这是可能损失的最大金额）。</p>
</div><p>Should MRVL stock rise through the second-leg strike ($87.50) at expiration, the maximum profit is $150, a payout of 150%. Breakeven also lands at $86, which is arguably an ideal threshold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 MRVL 股票在到期时突破第二阶段行权价（$87.50），最大利润为$150，收益率为 150%。盈亏平衡点也在$86，这可以说是一个理想的阈值。</p>
</div><p>Between $86 and $88, probability density may plunge by 75.67%. Under this statistical premise, there's no point in stretching the breakeven threshold any further. If you do, probability decay will accelerate exponentially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在$86 到$88 之间，概率密度可能会下降 75.67%。在这个统计前提下，进一步拉伸盈亏平衡阈值是没有意义的。如果这样做，概率衰减将会加速。</p>
</div><p>When you calculate risk geometry, you have the distinct edge of making informed and efficient decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当你计算风险几何时，你就拥有了做出明智和高效决策的独特优势。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>下一篇：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: How The Smart Money Could Be Quietly Loading Up On Twilio Stock</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：聪明资金如何悄然增持 Twilio 股票</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

期权专栏：投机者如何可能借助圣诞老人从迈威尔科技中获利