<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="768" height="511" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf"/></p>
<p>委内瑞拉多年来一直在规避美国的石油出口禁令，主要以折扣价向中国出售原油（费德里科·帕拉）</p>
<p>专家表示，美国对委内瑞拉石油运输的封锁可能会削减该国最有价值商品的生产，并使出口减半，使其经济进一步陷入危机。</p>
<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二下令对委内瑞拉用于规避已实施六年的美国石油禁令的受制裁油轮实施&#34;全面封锁&#34;。</p>
<p>这一声明标志着特朗普对委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的攻势升级，马杜罗最近两次连任被国际社会广泛指责为欺诈。</p>
<p>自九月份以来，美国在加勒比海建立了重要的海军存在，并对数十艘涉嫌走私毒品的船只发动了袭击，造成至少 95 人遇难，包括渔民，依据他们的家属和政府的说法。</p>
<p>马杜罗声称，部署在其国家附近的军队是推翻他的计划的一部分，并以反毒品行动的幌子&#34;窃取&#34;委内瑞拉的石油。</p>
<p>- 当前形势如何？ -</p>
<p>委内瑞拉多年来一直在规避美国的石油出口禁令，主要以大幅折扣价向中国出售原油——特朗普声称这些收入用于资助&#34;毒品恐怖主义、人口贩卖、谋杀和绑架。&#34;</p>
<p>根据石油输出国组织（OPEC）的数据，该国的石油储量估计约为 3030 亿桶，超过任何其他国家。</p>
<p>但多年的管理不善和腐败使得产量从 2000 年代初的超过 300 万桶/日降至 2020 年的历史低点 35 万桶/日。</p>
<p>现在产量回升至约 100 万桶/日——大约占全球总量的 2%。</p>
<p>在美国总统下令之前，委内瑞拉的石油售价比市场价低 35%。德克萨斯州贝克研究所的经济学家弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪表示。</p>
<p>委内瑞拉国有石油公司 PDVSA 周三坚称，出口&#34;正常进行&#34;，与 PDVSA 运营相关的油轮&#34;继续安全航行&#34;。</p>
<p>上周，美国军方扣押了一艘所谓的&#34;幽灵&#34;油轮 M/T Skipper，该油轮在违反美国制裁的情况下运输超过一百万桶委内瑞拉石油。</p>
<p>华盛顿誓言将保留这批货物。</p>
<p>全球约有 600 艘油轮受到美国制裁，其中 23 艘被列入针对委内瑞拉的计划，根据法新社对美国外国资产控制办公室和国际海事组织的数据分析。</p>
<p>其中六艘在上周刚刚被制裁。</p>
<p>- 未来会怎样？ -</p>
<p>卡拉卡斯现在可能面临进一步降低黑市价格的压力，即使全球原油价格在周三早些时候因美国封锁而飙升。</p>
<p>&#34;每桶价格的折扣预计将加速，并可能阻止许多油轮前往委内瑞拉，&#34;莫纳尔迪表示，预测&#34;将出现剧烈下降。&#34;</p>
<p>莫纳尔迪预测，出口可能会减少一半，&#34;这取决于受制裁的油轮被扣押的频率。&#34;</p>
<p>在 Skipper 被美国军队扣押后，PDVSA 在六天内无法装载任何新油轮，议会消息人士在匿名的情况下告诉法新社。</p>
<p>&#34;这将造成严重问题，因为 PDVSA 最多只有 15 天的储存能力。&#34;</p>
<p>莫纳尔迪表示，储存石油成本高昂，&#34;最可能的结果是他们将关闭生产，产量可能下降约 40 万桶/日。&#34;</p>
<p>- 客户情况如何？ -</p>
<p>特朗普的命令尚未影响雪佛龙向美国的运输，雪佛龙在委内瑞拉以特殊许可证运营。</p>
<p>雪佛龙占委内瑞拉产量的约 10%，但不再被允许向政府转移资金，因此以原油支付税款和其他费用——进一步使卡拉卡斯缺乏急需的美元。</p>
<p>&#34;七月份授予雪佛龙的许可证允许其提取与 PDVSA 共同运营的合资企业生产的 50% 的石油，&#34;委内瑞拉 IESA 商学院的能源研究员奥斯瓦尔多·费利佐拉告诉法新社。</p>
<p>资本经济预测公司周三指出，降低石油运输&#34;将在不久的将来切断委内瑞拉经济的关键生命线。&#34;</p>
<p>经济学家阿斯德鲁巴尔·奥利维罗斯在委内瑞拉广播中表示，向亚洲的出口下降可能使委内瑞拉每年损失数十亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>中国接收了委内瑞拉 80% 的原油出口，将受到最大的影响。</p>
<p>afc/jt/atm/mlr/cb/jgc</p>

雪佛龙

<p>美国对委内瑞拉石油运输的封锁可能会削减该国的生产，并将其最有价值商品的出口减半，专家表示，这将使其经济更加陷入危机。委内瑞拉商学院 IESA 的能源研究员 Oswaldo Felizzola 对法新社表示：“7 月份授予雪佛龙的许可证允许其获取与 PDVSA 共同运营的合资企业生产的 50%。”</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf"/></p>
<p>Venezuela has been sidestepping a US oil export embargo for years, selling crude at a discounted price mainly to China (Federico PARRA)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委内瑞拉多年来一直在规避美国的石油出口禁令，主要以折扣价向中国出售原油（费德里科·帕拉）</p>
</div><p>A US blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments could slash production and halve exports of the country's most valuable commodity, tipping its economy even deeper into crisis, experts say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家表示，美国对委内瑞拉石油运输的封锁可能会削减该国最有价值商品的生产，并使出口减半，使其经济进一步陷入危机。</p>
</div><p>US President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered a &#34;total and complete blockade&#34; of sanctioned oil tankers Venezuela has been using to bypass a six-year-old US oil embargo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二下令对委内瑞拉用于规避已实施六年的美国石油禁令的受制裁油轮实施&#34;全面封锁&#34;。</p>
</div><p>The announcement marked an escalation of Trump's offensive against Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, whose last two re-elections have been widely slammed by the international community as fraudulent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一声明标志着特朗普对委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的攻势升级，马杜罗最近两次连任被国际社会广泛指责为欺诈。</p>
</div><p>The United States has built up a major naval presence in the Caribbean Sea since September and launched strikes on dozens of alleged drug-smuggling boats, killing at least 95 people including fishermen, according to their families and governments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自九月份以来，美国在加勒比海建立了重要的海军存在，并对数十艘涉嫌走私毒品的船只发动了袭击，造成至少 95 人遇难，包括渔民，依据他们的家属和政府的说法。</p>
</div><p>Maduro claims the deployment within striking distance of his country is part of a plan to overthrow him and &#34;steal&#34; Venezuela's oil under the ruse of an anti-drug operation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马杜罗声称，部署在其国家附近的军队是推翻他的计划的一部分，并以反毒品行动的幌子&#34;窃取&#34;委内瑞拉的石油。</p>
</div><p>- What is the state of affairs? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 当前形势如何？ -</p>
</div><p>Venezuela has been sidestepping a US oil export embargo for years, selling crude at a heavily discounted price mainly to China -- income Trump claims is used to finance &#34;drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder and kidnapping.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委内瑞拉多年来一直在规避美国的石油出口禁令，主要以大幅折扣价向中国出售原油——特朗普声称这些收入用于资助&#34;毒品恐怖主义、人口贩卖、谋杀和绑架。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The country is estimated to have oil reserves of some 303 billion barrels, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- more than any other nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据石油输出国组织（OPEC）的数据，该国的石油储量估计约为 3030 亿桶，超过任何其他国家。</p>
</div><p>But years of mismanagement and corruption slashed production from a peak of more than three million barrels per day (bpd) in the early 2000s to a historic low of 350,000 bpd by 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但多年的管理不善和腐败使得产量从 2000 年代初的超过 300 万桶/日降至 2020 年的历史低点 35 万桶/日。</p>
</div><p>It is now back to about one million bpd -- roughly two percent of the global total.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在产量回升至约 100 万桶/日——大约占全球总量的 2%。</p>
</div><p>Before the US president's order, Venezuela had been selling its oil at up to 35 percent below market price, according to Francisco Monaldi, an economist at the Baker Institute, a think tank in Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国总统下令之前，委内瑞拉的石油售价比市场价低 35%。德克萨斯州贝克研究所的经济学家弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪表示。</p>
</div><p>Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA insisted Wednesday that exports &#34;continue normally&#34; and &#34;oil tankers linked to PDVSA operations continue to sail with full security.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委内瑞拉国有石油公司 PDVSA 周三坚称，出口&#34;正常进行&#34;，与 PDVSA 运营相关的油轮&#34;继续安全航行&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Last week, the US military seized a so-called &#34;ghost&#34; tanker, M/T Skipper, transporting over a million barrels of Venezuelan oil in violation of US sanctions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，美国军方扣押了一艘所谓的&#34;幽灵&#34;油轮 M/T Skipper，该油轮在违反美国制裁的情况下运输超过一百万桶委内瑞拉石油。</p>
</div><p>Washington vowed to keep the cargo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿誓言将保留这批货物。</p>
</div><p>There are about 600 oil tankers under US sanctions globally, of which 23 are listed under programs targeting Venezuela, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control and the International Maritime Organization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球约有 600 艘油轮受到美国制裁，其中 23 艘被列入针对委内瑞拉的计划，根据法新社对美国外国资产控制办公室和国际海事组织的数据分析。</p>
</div><p>Of these, six were sanctioned just last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中六艘在上周刚刚被制裁。</p>
</div><p>- What about the future? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 未来会怎样？ -</p>
</div><p>Caracas will likely now be under pressure to reduce its black market prices even further, even as global crude prices surged early Wednesday on the back of the US blockade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡拉卡斯现在可能面临进一步降低黑市价格的压力，即使全球原油价格在周三早些时候因美国封锁而飙升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Discounts on the price per barrel are expected to accelerate and will likely deter many tankers from going to Venezuela,&#34; said Monaldi, predicting &#34;a dramatic decline.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;每桶价格的折扣预计将加速，并可能阻止许多油轮前往委内瑞拉，&#34;莫纳尔迪表示，预测&#34;将出现剧烈下降。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Monaldi predicts exports may drop by as much as half, &#34;depending on how often sanctioned tankers...are seized.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫纳尔迪预测，出口可能会减少一半，&#34;这取决于受制裁的油轮被扣押的频率。&#34;</p>
</div><p>After The Skipper was taken by US forces, the PDVSA was unable to load any new tankers for six days, a parliamentary source told AFP on condition of anonymity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Skipper 被美国军队扣押后，PDVSA 在六天内无法装载任何新油轮，议会消息人士在匿名的情况下告诉法新社。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That's going to create a serious problem because it (the PDVSA) has at most 15 days of storage capacity.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这将造成严重问题，因为 PDVSA 最多只有 15 天的储存能力。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Monaldi said storing oil is expensive and &#34;the most likely outcome is that they'll shut down production, which could fall by roughly 400,000 barrels per day.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫纳尔迪表示，储存石油成本高昂，&#34;最可能的结果是他们将关闭生产，产量可能下降约 40 万桶/日。&#34;</p>
</div><p>- What about the clients? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 客户情况如何？ -</p>
</div><p>Trump's order has not yet affected shipments to the United States by Chevron, which operates in Venezuela under a special license.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的命令尚未影响雪佛龙向美国的运输，雪佛龙在委内瑞拉以特殊许可证运营。</p>
</div><p>Chevron accounts for about 10 percent of Venezuelan production, but it is no longer allowed to transfer money to the government and therefore pays taxes and other dues in crude -- further starving Caracas of much-needed dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雪佛龙占委内瑞拉产量的约 10%，但不再被允许向政府转移资金，因此以原油支付税款和其他费用——进一步使卡拉卡斯缺乏急需的美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The license granted to Chevron in July allows it to take 50 percent of what is produced by the joint ventures it operates with PDVSA,&#34; Oswaldo Felizzola, a Venezuelan energy researcher with the IESA business school, told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;七月份授予雪佛龙的许可证允许其提取与 PDVSA 共同运营的合资企业生产的 50% 的石油，&#34;委内瑞拉 IESA 商学院的能源研究员奥斯瓦尔多·费利佐拉告诉法新社。</p>
</div><p>The Capital Economics forecasting firm noted Wednesday that lower oil shipments &#34;would cut off a key lifeline for Venezuela's economy&#34; in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本经济预测公司周三指出，降低石油运输&#34;将在不久的将来切断委内瑞拉经济的关键生命线。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Economist Asdrubal Oliveros told Venezuelan radio a drop in exports to Asia could cost Venezuela billions of dollars in annual revenues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家阿斯德鲁巴尔·奥利维罗斯在委内瑞拉广播中表示，向亚洲的出口下降可能使委内瑞拉每年损失数十亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>China, which receives 80 percent of Venezuelan crude exports, would be impacted most.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国接收了委内瑞拉 80% 的原油出口，将受到最大的影响。</p>
</div><p>afc/jt/atm/mlr/cb/jgc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>afc/jt/atm/mlr/cb/jgc</p>
</div>

在美国石油封锁下，委内瑞拉的未来将如何发展？