<p>升级比特币至更具量子抗性的网络的紧迫性加剧。</p>
<p>考虑这一点——Solana 宣布已在测试网部署了后量子签名，表明其准备变得更加安全。甚至以太坊也有实现量子安全的路线图。</p>
<p>尽管比特币社区也在积极讨论类似的提案，但人们对能否在量子威胁成为现实之前迅速实施这些提案存在一些怀疑。</p>
<p>然而，比特币企业财库的先驱迈克尔·塞勒并不分享这种紧迫感。事实上，他最近指出，量子计算将 “增强比特币”，而不是破坏它。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<h2>塞勒引发混合反应</h2>
<p>对塞勒来说，大型科技公司会找到解决方案，并且在政府更新系统之前，不能让量子技术进入主流。然而，大多数专家不同意他 “简单化” 的观点和漠不关心的态度。</p>
<p>Starknet 和 Zcash 的创始人埃利·本 - 萨松表示，塞勒的计划在理论上可能可行，但由于达成共识的困难，在现实生活中并不实用。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“理论上同意。难道你不担心代码现在已经如此僵化，简单的修复（如 op_cat）如此难以推动，以至于在实践中根本无法实现吗？”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Polygon 的前联合创始人米哈伊洛·比耶利奇也表达了类似的顾虑，并指出，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“升级大约需要 2 年（如果所有常规交易停止，则约需 6 个月，这不现实）。而且这假设这个重大升级能够顺利进行，没有争议（这很难想象）。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>评估量子风险的可能性</h2>
<p>尽管谷歌在量子计算方面取得了突破，但该技术距离成为能够破解比特币网络和钱包的真正威胁还有大约 5-15 年或更长时间。</p>
<p>查尔斯·爱德华兹，Capriole Investments 的创始人，表示到 2028-2030 年，比特币被量子计算机破解的可能性为 34%-55%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>他补充说，如果升级未能实现，比特币也将面临类似的贬值风险。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“考虑到部署修复的时间为 2-3 年，这是当前的折扣率。而且这个折扣率在不断增长。每。一天。都在增长。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>比特币的安全性依赖于 ECDSA（椭圆曲线数字签名算法）和 SHA-256（哈希机制）。前者可以很容易被破解，强大的量子计算机可以恢复公钥和私钥。</p>
<p>然而，专家指出，大多数旧格式地址（主要来自中本聪时代）现在面临风险，而新的 Segwit 地址在一定程度上可以抵御长距离量子攻击。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>一些专家担心比特币可能错过升级到量子安全网络的机会。</em></li>
<li><em>中本聪时代和其他一些地址格式目前易受长距离量子攻击的影响。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

MSTR

<p>升级比特币以应对量子安全的紧迫性正在增加，Solana 和 Ethereum 正在取得进展。Michael Saylor 认为威胁被夸大，认为大型科技公司会在量子技术成为主流之前适应这一变化。专家 Eli Ben-Sasson 和 Mihailo Bjelic 对快速升级的可行性表示担忧。Charles Edwards 估计到 2028-2030 年，比特币被量子计算机破解的概率在 34% 到 55% 之间。比特币的安全性依赖于 ECDSA 和 SHA-256，面临风险，尤其是对于较旧的地址。升级到量子安全网络的窗口可能正在关闭</p>

<p>The urgency to upgrade Bitcoin to a more quantum-proof network has intensified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>升级比特币至更具量子抗性的网络的紧迫性加剧。</p>
</div><p>Consider this – Solana announced that it has deployed post-quantum signatures on the testnet, indicating its readiness to be more secure. Even Ethereum has a roadmap for achieving quantum security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑这一点——Solana 宣布已在测试网部署了后量子签名，表明其准备变得更加安全。甚至以太坊也有实现量子安全的路线图。</p>
</div><p>Although the Bitcoin community is also actively discussing similar proposals, there is some doubt whether they can be implemented quickly enough before the quantum threat becomes a reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管比特币社区也在积极讨论类似的提案，但人们对能否在量子威胁成为现实之前迅速实施这些提案存在一些怀疑。</p>
</div><p>However, Michael Saylor, the pioneer of BTC corporate treasury, doesn’t share a similar urgency. In fact, he recently noted that quantum computing will “harden BTC,” not break it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，比特币企业财库的先驱迈克尔·塞勒并不分享这种紧迫感。事实上，他最近指出，量子计算将 “增强比特币”，而不是破坏它。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><h2>Saylor elicits mixed reactions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>塞勒引发混合反应</h2>
</div><p>For Saylor, the big tech firms will figure it out and can’t let the quantum tech go mainstream before governments update their systems. However, most experts disagree with his “simplistic” view and nonchalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对塞勒来说，大型科技公司会找到解决方案，并且在政府更新系统之前，不能让量子技术进入主流。然而，大多数专家不同意他 “简单化” 的观点和漠不关心的态度。</p>
</div><p>Eli Ben-Sasson, founder of Starknet and Zcash, said that Saylor’s plans may be workable in theory, but impractical in real life due to the difficulty of reaching consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Starknet 和 Zcash 的创始人埃利·本 - 萨松表示，塞勒的计划在理论上可能可行，但由于达成共识的困难，在现实生活中并不实用。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Agree, in theory. Aren’t you worried code is by now so ossified, and simple fixes (like op_cat) so hard to push that in practice it just won’t happen?”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“理论上同意。难道你不担心代码现在已经如此僵化，简单的修复（如 op_cat）如此难以推动，以至于在实践中根本无法实现吗？”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Mihailo Bjelic, a former co-founder of Polygon, also shared similar reservations and noted,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polygon 的前联合创始人米哈伊洛·比耶利奇也表达了类似的顾虑，并指出，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The upgrade takes ~2 years (~6 months if all regular txs stop, which is unrealistic). And this is assuming this major upgrade goes through smoothly, without contention (which is hard to imagine).”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“升级大约需要 2 年（如果所有常规交易停止，则约需 6 个月，这不现实）。而且这假设这个重大升级能够顺利进行，没有争议（这很难想象）。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Assessing the odds of quantum risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>评估量子风险的可能性</h2>
</div><p>Despite Google’s breakthrough in quantum computing, the tech is about 5-15 years or more away from becoming a real threat capable of cracking the Bitcoin network and wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管谷歌在量子计算方面取得了突破，但该技术距离成为能够破解比特币网络和钱包的真正威胁还有大约 5-15 年或更长时间。</p>
</div><p>For his part, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that there was a 34%-55% chance that BTC could be cracked by quantum computers by 2028-2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查尔斯·爱德华兹，Capriole Investments 的创始人，表示到 2028-2030 年，比特币被量子计算机破解的可能性为 34%-55%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>He added that Bitcoin will be devalued by similar odds if the upgrade doesn’t happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，如果升级未能实现，比特币也将面临类似的贬值风险。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Given a 2-3 yr timeline to deploy fix, this is the current discount rate. And it is growing. Every. Single. Day.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“考虑到部署修复的时间为 2-3 年，这是当前的折扣率。而且这个折扣率在不断增长。每。一天。都在增长。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s security relies on ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) and SHA-256 (hashing mechanism). The former can easily be cracked, and both public and private keys can be retrieved with a powerful quantum computer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的安全性依赖于 ECDSA（椭圆曲线数字签名算法）和 SHA-256（哈希机制）。前者可以很容易被破解，强大的量子计算机可以恢复公钥和私钥。</p>
</div><p>However, most old-format addresses (primarily from the Satoshi era) are now at risk, while new Segwit addresses are partially secure from long-range quantum attacks, according to experts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，专家指出，大多数旧格式地址（主要来自中本聪时代）现在面临风险，而新的 Segwit 地址在一定程度上可以抵御长距离量子攻击。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Some experts are worried that Bitcoin may miss the window to upgrade to a quantum-secure network.</em></li>
<li><em>The Satoshi era and a few other address formats are currently vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>一些专家担心比特币可能错过升级到量子安全网络的机会。</em></li>
<li><em>中本聪时代和其他一些地址格式目前易受长距离量子攻击的影响。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特币的量子未来——尽管专家提出警告，Saylor 淡化了风险