<p><strong>Strategy (MSTR)</strong> – 前身为 MicroStrategy – 是一个无可争议的成功案例。</p>
<p>该公司在 “比特币储备” 成为华尔街流行术语之前，就已经从一个小型软件提供商转变为比特币持有公司。</p>
<p>该公司首次涉足加密货币是在 2020 年 8 月，以每个代币 11,600 美元的价格购买了 2.5 亿美元的比特币。</p>
<p>在过去五年多的时间里，尽管今年早些时候经历了 63% 的回调，该股票的回报率仍超过了 1,000%。</p>
<h2>MicroStrategy 的崛起</h2>
<p>投资者纷纷涌入该公司，以便在他们的投资组合中增加有效的杠杆比特币敞口。对加密货币日益增长的投资者兴趣为该股票最终的滞后表现埋下了种子，因为持续的投资者兴趣促使监管机构在 2024 年初批准了现货比特币 ETF。</p>
<p>随着直接持有比特币的 ETF 的到来，投资者开始质疑他们是否真的需要 Strategy 的 “比特币敞口”。</p>
<p>毕竟，在 2024 年 11 月的高峰期，MSTR 的 “mNAV”（企业价值除以总比特币储备）为 3.14，这意味着股票的交易价格是比特币持有价值的三倍多。</p>
<p>这是一种巨大的溢价（此后已消失；目前 mNAV 为 1.1），但投资案例可以说是合理的，尽管并不特别引人注目。</p>
<p>Strategy 能够做到零售投资者永远无法做到的事情。即，通过发行股票出售其投资组合的一部分，然后利用所得资金购买更多比特币。</p>
<p>只要比特币持续上涨，投资者的兴趣保持强劲，股东们就可以合理地为获得这种融资机制本身支付溢价（尽管可能不是那么_高_的溢价）。</p>
<p>但在今年 7 月，这种动态发生了变化。</p>
<p>[text_ad]</p>
<h2>Strategy 的下滑</h2>
<p>比特币的交易价格为 118,000 美元每个代币，随后创下新高，而 Strategy 所要求的溢价开始逐渐消失。</p>
<p>投资者不仅可以更轻松地自行将加密货币添加到他们的投资组合中，而且 Strategy 开始提供新的证券类别，如优先股 <strong>STRC</strong>，由于支付股息，这意味着 Strategy 不再将每一分钱都用于 “堆叠 Sats”（Satoshis：比特币的最小单位，等于一亿分之一；以创造者中本聪的名字命名）——相反，它现在有义务支付优先股息，这当然增加了普通股东的成本。</p>
<p>与公司之前的低成本债务发行不同，这些债务主要只是增加了股东稀释的风险（Strategy 目前有 82 亿美元的未偿债务，其中大部分是 0.00% 票息的可转换债务；所有未偿债务的平均票息为 0.421%），这些永久优先股的收益率高达 8% 至 10.75%。</p>
<p>就投资者而言，实际的支付金额（每年约 7 亿美元）比战略转变的重要性要小。</p>
<p>Strategy 的飞速发展源于一些巧妙的金融工程和其对比特币的买入和持有承诺，无论发生什么。</p>
<p>当公司开始发行优先股时，它牺牲了后者以换取前者。</p>
<p>股价暴跌，从 7 月 16 日的历史最高收盘价 456 跌至今天的 164。</p>
<p>除此之外，该公司现在还面临来自 MSCI 的威胁，可能会在 2026 年 2 月开始将数字资产国库公司（如 Strategy；数字资产超过其总资产 50% 的公司）排除在 MSCI 全球可投资市场指数之外。</p>
<p>股票将继续在交易所正常交易，但将被排除在任何明确投资于 MSCI USA 和 MSCI World 指数中公司的 ETF 之外。</p>
<p>根据 Yahoo！的报道，摩根大通估计这可能会引发 88 亿美元的资金流出。</p>
<p>那么，投资者该怎么办？</p>
<h2>现在应该购买 Strategy (MSTR) 吗？</h2>
<p>指数排除的风险是真实且显著的，这是一种与比特币本身表现无关的不对称风险。</p>
<p>MSTR 长期以来的交易价格与公司持有的价值脱钩（向上），没有理由它们不能以显著低于其比特币持有价值的价格交易。</p>
<p>如果你考虑开始持有，可能想等到明年初 MSCI 的决定再重新评估（如果你仍然想投资 MSTR，若 MSCI 决定不包括它们，股票可能会以折扣价出售）。</p>
<p>如果你已经投资于 MSTR，可能想考虑将部分或全部资金重新分配到简单的比特币 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)</strong>，以保持比特币敞口，同时消除 MSTR 带来的某些公司特定风险。</p>
<p>最后，我不得不提到，MSTR 所采用的（通过其融资机制获得的杠杆比特币敞口）可能再次对他们有效，但我预计这种情况只会在更为乐观的加密牛市中出现。</p>
<p>换句话说，MSTR 并不是一个永久的避开对象，但只有在公司克服其立即的 MSCI 相关障碍并在更有利的市场中时，你才应该考虑转向它。</p>
<p>[author_ad]</p>

MSTR

<p>Strategy (MSTR)，前身为 MicroStrategy，已从软件供应商转型为比特币持有公司，自 2020 年以来实现了超过 1000% 的股票回报。然而，比特币 ETF 的推出和新的优先股发行导致其股价下跌。该公司面临被 MSCI 指数排除的潜在风险，可能导致 88 亿美元的资金流出。建议投资者考虑重新配置到比特币 ETF，以降低公司特定风险，同时等待 MSCI 在 2026 年的决定</p>

<p><strong>Strategy (MSTR)</strong>– formerly known as MicroStrategy – has been an unquestionable success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Strategy (MSTR)</strong> – 前身为 MicroStrategy – 是一个无可争议的成功案例。</p>
</div><p>The company pivoted from being a small software provider to a Bitcoin holding company long before “Bitcoin reserves” started becoming a popular term on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在 “比特币储备” 成为华尔街流行术语之前，就已经从一个小型软件提供商转变为比特币持有公司。</p>
</div><p>The company’s first foray into cryptocurrencies was a buy of $250 million in Bitcoin at $11,600 per token all the way back in August of 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司首次涉足加密货币是在 2020 年 8 月，以每个代币 11,600 美元的价格购买了 2.5 亿美元的比特币。</p>
</div><p>In the intervening five-plus years, the stock has returned more than 1,000%, even after a 63% drawdown from all-time highs set earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年多的时间里，尽管今年早些时候经历了 63% 的回调，该股票的回报率仍超过了 1,000%。</p>
</div><h2>The Rise of MicroStrategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>MicroStrategy 的崛起</h2>
</div><p>Investors piled into the company as a way to add what was effectively leveraged Bitcoin exposure to their portfolios. And that growing investor interest in cryptocurrency planted the seeds of the stock’s eventual lagging performance as sustained investor interest prompted regulators to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者纷纷涌入该公司，以便在他们的投资组合中增加有效的杠杆比特币敞口。对加密货币日益增长的投资者兴趣为该股票最终的滞后表现埋下了种子，因为持续的投资者兴趣促使监管机构在 2024 年初批准了现货比特币 ETF。</p>
</div><p>With the arrival of ETFs that held Bitcoin directly, investors were left questioning whether they wanted Strategy’s “flavor” of Bitcoin exposure at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着直接持有比特币的 ETF 的到来，投资者开始质疑他们是否真的需要 Strategy 的 “比特币敞口”。</p>
</div><p>After all, at its peak in November 2024, MSTR was trading at an “mNAV” (Enterprise Value divided by the total Bitcoin reserves) of 3.14, meaning the shares were trading for more than triple what the Bitcoin holdings were actually worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，在 2024 年 11 月的高峰期，MSTR 的 “mNAV”（企业价值除以总比特币储备）为 3.14，这意味着股票的交易价格是比特币持有价值的三倍多。</p>
</div><p>That’s a massive premium (which has since evaporated; mNAV is currently 1.1), but the investing case was arguable, although not particularly compelling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种巨大的溢价（此后已消失；目前 mNAV 为 1.1），但投资案例可以说是合理的，尽管并不特别引人注目。</p>
</div><p>Strategy had the ability to do what retail investors never could. Namely, sell a stake in its portfolio by issuing shares and then use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 能够做到零售投资者永远无法做到的事情。即，通过发行股票出售其投资组合的一部分，然后利用所得资金购买更多比特币。</p>
</div><p>As long as Bitcoin kept rising and investor interest remained strong, shareholders could justify paying apremium (though perhaps not that <em>much</em> of a premium) for access to the fundraising mechanism itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要比特币持续上涨，投资者的兴趣保持强劲，股东们就可以合理地为获得这种融资机制本身支付溢价（尽管可能不是那么_高_的溢价）。</p>
</div><p>But in July of this year, that dynamic shifted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在今年 7 月，这种动态发生了变化。</p>
</div><p>[text_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><h2>The Fall of Strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Strategy 的下滑</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin, which was trading for $118,000 per token, would go on to set new highs as Strategy saw the premium it demanded begin to slip away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的交易价格为 118,000 美元每个代币，随后创下新高，而 Strategy 所要求的溢价开始逐渐消失。</p>
</div><p>Not only could investors more easily add crypto to their portfolios on their own, but Strategy began offering new classes of securities, like the preferred stock <strong>STRC</strong>, which, by virtue of paying out dividends, meant that Strategy was no longer using every penny it took in to “stack Sats” (Satoshis: one-hundred-millionth of a Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s smallest unit of account; named after the creator Satoshi Nakamoto)—instead, it would now be obligated to pay out preferred dividends, which of course adds costs to common shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者不仅可以更轻松地自行将加密货币添加到他们的投资组合中，而且 Strategy 开始提供新的证券类别，如优先股 <strong>STRC</strong>，由于支付股息，这意味着 Strategy 不再将每一分钱都用于 “堆叠 Sats”（Satoshis：比特币的最小单位，等于一亿分之一；以创造者中本聪的名字命名）——相反，它现在有义务支付优先股息，这当然增加了普通股东的成本。</p>
</div><p>Unlike the company’s previous low-cost debt offerings, which mostly just raised the risk of shareholder dilution (Strategy currently has $8.2 billion of debt outstanding, the majority of which is 0.00%-coupon convertible debt; the average coupon for all outstanding debt is 0.421%), these perpetual preferreds pay out hefty 8% to 10.75% yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与公司之前的低成本债务发行不同，这些债务主要只是增加了股东稀释的风险（Strategy 目前有 82 亿美元的未偿债务，其中大部分是 0.00% 票息的可转换债务；所有未偿债务的平均票息为 0.421%），这些永久优先股的收益率高达 8% 至 10.75%。</p>
</div><p>The actual dollar amounts of the payouts (about $700 million a year) were less significant than the strategy shift, at least as far as investors were concerned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就投资者而言，实际的支付金额（每年约 7 亿美元）比战略转变的重要性要小。</p>
</div><p>Strategy had skyrocketed on a combination of a bit of clever financial engineering and its commitment to buy and hold Bitcoin, come what may.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的飞速发展源于一些巧妙的金融工程和其对比特币的买入和持有承诺，无论发生什么。</p>
</div><p>When the company began issuing preferreds, it sacrificed the latter in favor of the former.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当公司开始发行优先股时，它牺牲了后者以换取前者。</p>
</div><p>And the share price plummeted, falling from an all-time closing high of 456 on July 16 to 164 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价暴跌，从 7 月 16 日的历史最高收盘价 456 跌至今天的 164。</p>
</div><p>On top of all that, the company is now contending with threats from MSCI to exclude digital asset treasury companies (like Strategy; companies whose digital assets exceed more than 50% of their total assets) from MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes starting in February 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，该公司现在还面临来自 MSCI 的威胁，可能会在 2026 年 2 月开始将数字资产国库公司（如 Strategy；数字资产超过其总资产 50% 的公司）排除在 MSCI 全球可投资市场指数之外。</p>
</div><p>Shares would continue to trade on exchanges normally, but they’d be omitted from any ETF that explicitly invests in companies included in the MSCI USA and MSCI World Indexes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票将继续在交易所正常交易，但将被排除在任何明确投资于 MSCI USA 和 MSCI World 指数中公司的 ETF 之外。</p>
</div><p>Per reporting from Yahoo!, JPMorgan estimates that could trigger $8.8 billion in outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Yahoo！的报道，摩根大通估计这可能会引发 88 亿美元的资金流出。</p>
</div><p>So, what’s an investor to do?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，投资者该怎么办？</p>
</div><h2>Should You Buy Strategy (MSTR) Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在应该购买 Strategy (MSTR) 吗？</h2>
</div><p>The risk of index omission is real and significant, and it’s an asymmetric risk that is unrelated to the performance of Bitcoin itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指数排除的风险是真实且显著的，这是一种与比特币本身表现无关的不对称风险。</p>
</div><p>MSTR has long traded at prices that are untethered to the value of the company’s holdings (to the upside), and there’s no reason they couldn’t trade at a significant discount to their Bitcoin holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSTR 长期以来的交易价格与公司持有的价值脱钩（向上），没有理由它们不能以显著低于其比特币持有价值的价格交易。</p>
</div><p>If you’re considering starting a position, you may want to wait for a decision from MSCI early next year to reassess (if you still want to invest in MSTR, shares will probably be available at a discount should MSCI decide against them).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你考虑开始持有，可能想等到明年初 MSCI 的决定再重新评估（如果你仍然想投资 MSTR，若 MSCI 决定不包括它们，股票可能会以折扣价出售）。</p>
</div><p>If you’re already invested in MSTR, you may want to consider reallocating some or all of that to a simple Bitcoin ETF like the <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)</strong> in order to maintain Bitcoin exposure while eliminating some of the company-specific risk that MSTR introduces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你已经投资于 MSTR，可能想考虑将部分或全部资金重新分配到简单的比特币 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)</strong>，以保持比特币敞口，同时消除 MSTR 带来的某些公司特定风险。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, I’d be remiss not to mention that what has worked for MSTR (leveraged Bitcoin exposure by virtue of their fundraising mechanism) could work for them again, but I’d expect that to be the case only in a more exuberant crypto bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，我不得不提到，MSTR 所采用的（通过其融资机制获得的杠杆比特币敞口）可能再次对他们有效，但我预计这种情况只会在更为乐观的加密牛市中出现。</p>
</div><p>In other words, MSTR isn’t a permanent stay-away, but it’s something you should consider pivoting into only should the company clear its immediate MSCI-related hurdle and in a more supportive market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，MSTR 并不是一个永久的避开对象，但只有在公司克服其立即的 MSCI 相关障碍并在更有利的市场中时，你才应该考虑转向它。</p>
</div><p>[author_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[author_ad]</p>
</div>

是否有理由购买 Strategy (MSTR)？