<p>美国前进保险（Progressive）是一家金融行业公司，昨天被华尔街分析师重新评估。来自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析师 Bob Huang 维持对该股票的卖出评级，并设定了 214.00 美元的目标价。</p>
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<p>Bob Huang 给出卖出评级的原因是多种因素的结合，在他看来，这些因素限制了美国前进保险的上涨空间。他指出，汽车保单的增长变得不稳定，明显低于他的预期，这表明竞争压力的上升开始显现，而 2024 年和 2025 年初的超常扩张在短期内不太可能重现。尽管管理层继续展现出强大的承保纪律，综合比率舒适地低于 90%，Huang 认为这种盈利能力的强劲已经被市场充分认可，无法抵消对保单增长放缓和更严峻经营环境的担忧。</p>
<p>此外，资本回报更多倾向于特别股息而非股票回购，11 月的回购远未达到他之前的假设。这一变化减少了 2026-2027 年回购带来的每股收益提升，进一步拖累了他的前瞻性估计和估值观点。综合来看，增长轨迹减缓、竞争加剧以及资本回报组合不再支持，使 Huang 维持谨慎态度，并为他的卖出建议提供了依据，尽管他承认美国前进保险的长期特许经营质量和承保卓越。</p>
<p>根据 TipRanks，Huang 是一位平均回报率为-3.8% 且成功率为 53.55% 的分析师。他覆盖金融行业，专注于美国前进保险、首席金融（Principal Financial）和 Arch Capital Group 等股票。</p>

美国前进保险

<p>摩根士丹利分析师 Bob Huang 维持对美国前进保险的卖出评级，理由是增长放缓、竞争加剧以及回购力度减弱等因素限制了该股的上涨空间。Huang 指出，汽车保单增长不稳定，以及向特别股息转变而非股票回购，影响了未来的每股收益。尽管承认美国前进保险在承保纪律方面表现强劲，Huang 仍因经营环境严峻而保持谨慎。他的分析支持该股 214.00 美元的目标价</p>

<p>Progressive, the Financial sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst yesterday. Analyst Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley maintained a Sell rating on the stock and has a $214.00 price target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国前进保险（Progressive）是一家金融行业公司，昨天被华尔街分析师重新评估。来自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析师 Bob Huang 维持对该股票的卖出评级，并设定了 214.00 美元的目标价。</p>
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<li>解锁对冲基金级别的数据和强大的投资工具，帮助您做出更聪明、更精准的决策</li>
<li>通过最新的新闻和分析保持市场领先，使您的投资组合始终处于最大潜力的状态</li>
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</div><p>Bob Huang has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, limit Progressive’s upside from here. He highlights that auto policy growth has become erratic and meaningfully weaker than his expectations, suggesting that rising competitive pressure is beginning to bite and that the outsized expansion seen in 2024 and early 2025 is unlikely to be repeated in the near term. While management continues to demonstrate strong underwriting discipline, with a combined ratio comfortably below 90%, Huang believes this profitability strength is already well appreciated by the market and not enough to offset concerns about slower policy growth and a tougher operating environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bob Huang 给出卖出评级的原因是多种因素的结合，在他看来，这些因素限制了美国前进保险的上涨空间。他指出，汽车保单的增长变得不稳定，明显低于他的预期，这表明竞争压力的上升开始显现，而 2024 年和 2025 年初的超常扩张在短期内不太可能重现。尽管管理层继续展现出强大的承保纪律，综合比率舒适地低于 90%，Huang 认为这种盈利能力的强劲已经被市场充分认可，无法抵消对保单增长放缓和更严峻经营环境的担忧。</p>
</div><p>In addition, capital return is skewing more toward special dividends rather than share repurchases, with November buybacks falling far short of his prior assumptions. This shift reduces the expected earnings-per-share boost from buybacks in 2026–2027, creating another drag on his forward estimates and valuation view. Taken together, the decelerating growth trajectory, intensifying competition, and less supportive capital-return mix lead Huang to maintain a cautious stance and justify his Sell recommendation, even as he acknowledges Progressive’s long-term franchise quality and underwriting excellence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，资本回报更多倾向于特别股息而非股票回购，11 月的回购远未达到他之前的假设。这一变化减少了 2026-2027 年回购带来的每股收益提升，进一步拖累了他的前瞻性估计和估值观点。综合来看，增长轨迹减缓、竞争加剧以及资本回报组合不再支持，使 Huang 维持谨慎态度，并为他的卖出建议提供了依据，尽管他承认美国前进保险的长期特许经营质量和承保卓越。</p>
</div><p>According to TipRanks, Huang is an analyst with an average return of -3.8% and a 53.55% success rate. Huang covers the Financial sector, focusing on stocks such as Progressive, Principal Financial, and Arch Capital Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 TipRanks，Huang 是一位平均回报率为-3.8% 且成功率为 53.55% 的分析师。他覆盖金融行业，专注于美国前进保险、首席金融（Principal Financial）和 Arch Capital Group 等股票。</p>
</div>

增长放缓、竞争加剧以及回购力度减弱削弱了美国前进保险的上涨潜力，合理地证明了卖出评级