<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>由于美国通胀数据低于预期，黄金价格收窄了当天早些时候的跌幅，市场对美联储明年降息的希望增强。</p>
<p>银价大幅下跌，因为投资者在金属价格突破每盎司 66 美元的历史高位后选择获利了结。</p>
<p>与此同时，油价上涨，因对供应减少的担忧提升了投资者的情绪。</p>
<p>此外，基本金属价格也因市场对美联储在 2026 年进一步降息的预期而上涨。</p>
<h2>黄金稳定</h2>
<p>尽管黄金价格受到未来降息预期和持续的宏观经济不确定性支持，但其高估值和地面黄金的现有库存量表明，采取更谨慎的风险策略是明智的。</p>
<p>根据最近发布的数据，美国 11 月份消费者价格同比上涨 2.7%。</p>
<p>这一数据低于路透社调查的经济学家预测的 3.1% 的增幅。</p>
<p>在这一数据发布后，联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储在 1 月份会议上降息的概率略有上升。</p>
<p>Trade Nation 的高级市场分析师 David Morrison 表示：“黄金可能需要更长时间的整合，可能在较低水平上，以便 MACD 回调并重置到可以开始大幅反弹的水平。”</p>
<p>截至撰写时，COMEX 黄金合约报每盎司 4,368.80 美元，与前一交易日基本持平。</p>
<p>与此同时，COMEX 上的银价下跌 1.8%，报每盎司 65.693 美元。</p>
<p>Morrison 表示：“交易者是否终于对进一步推高价格感到谨慎？还是这只是银价大幅上涨后急需的喘息暂停？”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>这两种解读都有可能，但哪种更可能？冒着听起来像是划伤的唱片的风险（还记得它们吗？），日 MACD 显著超买。这表明，无论是看涨还是看跌，接近银价时都应非常谨慎。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>油价上涨</h2>
<p>周四，油价上涨，投资者评估美国可能对俄罗斯实施更多制裁的潜力，以及因委内瑞拉油轮封锁而引发的供应担忧。</p>
<p>美国计划对往返于委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施封锁，这一举措由特朗普总统宣布，引发了对委内瑞拉石油出口未来的担忧。</p>
<p>ING 集团商品策略负责人 Warren Patterson 在一份报告中表示：“这将使约 60 万桶/日的石油出口面临风险，其中大部分流向中国。”</p>
<p>“然而，流向美国的石油，目前约为 16 万桶/日（160,000 桶/日），可能会继续。”</p>
<p>此前获得美国政府许可在委内瑞拉继续运营的 Chevron 是这一石油的来源。</p>
<p>Patterson 表示：“关键问题是，首先，这一封锁的有效性如何，其次，它将持续多久。这将对油市的影响至关重要。”</p>
<p>在周三的报告显示美国政府计划对俄罗斯能源部门实施更严格的制裁后，市场的供应风险加剧。</p>
<p>这一风险的增加取决于普京总统是否与乌克兰达成和平协议。</p>
<p>Patterson 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>鉴于供应过剩的前景和布伦特原油交易在每桶 60 美元左右，特朗普有更多空间对制裁采取更激进的措施。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>基本金属</h2>
<p>今晨基本金属交易表现谨慎，受到全球宏观指标不确定性、美元在近期反弹后的稳定以及影响关键行业的市场特定消息的驱动。</p>
<p>FCA 监管的多资产经纪公司 Britannia Global Markets 的金属负责人 Neil Welsh 表示，脆弱的风险情绪源于美国科技股的近期波动，正引导交易者关注即将发布的通胀数据和中央银行的声明。</p>
<p>尽管从上周的历史高位回落，铜价仍然处于历史高位。</p>
<p>这一持续水平源于今年三分之一的反弹，受到矿山中断、强劲需求和能源转型持续叙事的推动。</p>
<p>Welsh 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>最近的回调以及美元略微走强和股市风险偏好减弱，突显了铜价对短期宏观波动的敏感性，即使结构性基本面依然紧张。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>铝和锌目前也在下跌，反映了铜的趋势。然而，技术支撑水平仍然相关，尤其是在锌最近从关键价格点恢复之后。</p>
<p>截至撰写时，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜合约报每吨 11,764.15 美元，较前一交易日上涨 0.3%。铝合约报每吨 2,914.75 美元，涨幅为 0.4%。</p>
<p>商品综述：黄金因降息预期保持稳定，油价因制裁担忧上涨，首发于 Invezz。</p>

国民油井华高

<p>黄金价格因美国通胀数据疲软而对美联储降息的预期保持稳定，而银价因投资者获利了结而下跌。由于对美国对委内瑞拉和俄罗斯制裁的担忧，油价上涨，影响了供应。基本金属因预期美国降息而上涨。美国 11 月份消费者价格上涨 2.7%，低于预期。分析师建议在黄金和白银交易中保持谨慎，因为估值较高且超买指标明显。尽管近期回调，铜价仍然保持在高位，而铝和锌则出现下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>Gold prices pared losses from earlier in the day as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国通胀数据低于预期，黄金价格收窄了当天早些时候的跌幅，市场对美联储明年降息的希望增强。</p>
</div><p>Silver prices fell sharply as investors booked profits after the metal had hit record highs above $66 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价大幅下跌，因为投资者在金属价格突破每盎司 66 美元的历史高位后选择获利了结。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, oil prices rose as concerns about lower supply boosted sentiments among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，油价上涨，因对供应减少的担忧提升了投资者的情绪。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, base metal prices also climbed on anticipation over further interest rate cuts by the US Fed in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，基本金属价格也因市场对美联储在 2026 年进一步降息的预期而上涨。</p>
</div><h2>Gold steady</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金稳定</h2>
</div><p>While gold’s price is supported by the expectation of eventual interest rate cuts and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, its high valuation and large existing inventories of above-ground gold suggest a more cautious strategy for taking on additional risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管黄金价格受到未来降息预期和持续的宏观经济不确定性支持，但其高估值和地面黄金的现有库存量表明，采取更谨慎的风险策略是明智的。</p>
</div><p>US consumer prices in November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, according to recently released data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最近发布的数据，美国 11 月份消费者价格同比上涨 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>This figure was lower than the 3.1% rise that economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一数据低于路透社调查的经济学家预测的 3.1% 的增幅。</p>
</div><p>Following the release of this data, futures on the federal funds rate indicated a marginally higher probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during its January meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一数据发布后，联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储在 1 月份会议上降息的概率略有上升。</p>
</div><p>“Gold may need a longer period of consolidation, possibly at lower levels, for the MACD to pull back and reset to levels from which a substantial rally can begin,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Trade Nation 的高级市场分析师 David Morrison 表示：“黄金可能需要更长时间的整合，可能在较低水平上，以便 MACD 回调并重置到可以开始大幅反弹的水平。”</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $4,368.80 per ounce, largely unchanged from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，COMEX 黄金合约报每盎司 4,368.80 美元，与前一交易日基本持平。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, silver prices on COMEX were 1.8% lower at $65.693 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，COMEX 上的银价下跌 1.8%，报每盎司 65.693 美元。</p>
</div><p>“Could traders finally be wary of pushing prices up further? Or is this simply a much-needed breath-taking pause after silver’s terrific rally?,” Morrison said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Morrison 表示：“交易者是否终于对进一步推高价格感到谨慎？还是这只是银价大幅上涨后急需的喘息暂停？”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Either interpretation is possible, but which is more likely? At the risk of sounding like a scratched record (remember them?), the daily MACD is significantly overbought. That would suggest approaching silver with great caution, whether a bull or a bear.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>这两种解读都有可能，但哪种更可能？冒着听起来像是划伤的唱片的风险（还记得它们吗？），日 MACD 显著超买。这表明，无论是看涨还是看跌，接近银价时都应非常谨慎。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Oil rises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价上涨</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors assessed the potential for more US sanctions targeting Russia, and supply concerns stemming from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，油价上涨，投资者评估美国可能对俄罗斯实施更多制裁的潜力，以及因委内瑞拉油轮封锁而引发的供应担忧。</p>
</div><p>The US intends to impose a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers travelling to and from Venezuela, a move announced by President Trump that has raised concerns about the future of Venezuelan oil exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国计划对往返于委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施封锁，这一举措由特朗普总统宣布，引发了对委内瑞拉石油出口未来的担忧。</p>
</div><p>“This puts at risk around 600k b/d of oil exports, the majority of which goes to China,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 集团商品策略负责人 Warren Patterson 在一份报告中表示：“这将使约 60 万桶/日的石油出口面临风险，其中大部分流向中国。”</p>
</div><p>“However, flows to the US, currently around 160k b/d (160,000 barrels per day), will likely continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，流向美国的石油，目前约为 16 万桶/日（160,000 桶/日），可能会继续。”</p>
</div><p>Chevron, which previously obtained a license from the US government to continue its operations in Venezuela, is the source of this oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前获得美国政府许可在委内瑞拉继续运营的 Chevron 是这一石油的来源。</p>
</div><p>“The key questions are, first, how effective this blockade will be, and second, how long it will last. This will be important in determining the impact on the oil market,” Patterson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Patterson 表示：“关键问题是，首先，这一封锁的有效性如何，其次，它将持续多久。这将对油市的影响至关重要。”</p>
</div><p>Supply risk in the market is heightened following Wednesday’s reports that the US government is planning to impose even more stringent sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周三的报告显示美国政府计划对俄罗斯能源部门实施更严格的制裁后，市场的供应风险加剧。</p>
</div><p>This increased risk is dependent on President Putin not reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一风险的增加取决于普京总统是否与乌克兰达成和平协议。</p>
</div><p>Patterson said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Patterson 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Given the surplus outlook and Brent trading around $60/bbl, Trump has room to be more aggressive with sanctions.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>鉴于供应过剩的前景和布伦特原油交易在每桶 60 美元左右，特朗普有更多空间对制裁采取更激进的措施。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Base metals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本金属</h2>
</div><p>Base metal trading is characterised by caution this morning, driven by a blend of uncertain global macro indicators, a stable dollar following its recent rally, and market-specific news affecting key sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今晨基本金属交易表现谨慎，受到全球宏观指标不确定性、美元在近期反弹后的稳定以及影响关键行业的市场特定消息的驱动。</p>
</div><p>Fragile risk sentiment, stemming from the recent volatility in US tech stocks, is directing traders’ attention towards upcoming inflation figures and central bank statements, according to Neil Welsh, head of metals at FCA-regulated multi-asset brokerage Britannia Global Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FCA 监管的多资产经纪公司 Britannia Global Markets 的金属负责人 Neil Welsh 表示，脆弱的风险情绪源于美国科技股的近期波动，正引导交易者关注即将发布的通胀数据和中央银行的声明。</p>
</div><p>Despite pulling back from last week’s record high, copper prices remain historically elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管从上周的历史高位回落，铜价仍然处于历史高位。</p>
</div><p>This sustained level follows a one-third rally this year, fueled by mine disruptions, strong demand, and the continuing narrative around the energy transition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一持续水平源于今年三分之一的反弹，受到矿山中断、强劲需求和能源转型持续叙事的推动。</p>
</div><p>Welsh said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Welsh 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The recent retreat alongside a modestly firmer dollar and weaker risk appetite in equities highlights how sensitive the metal (copper) remains to short term macro swings even as structural fundamentals stay tight.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>最近的回调以及美元略微走强和股市风险偏好减弱，突显了铜价对短期宏观波动的敏感性，即使结构性基本面依然紧张。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Aluminium and zinc are currently declining, mirroring the trend in copper. However, technical support levels remain relevant, especially following zinc’s recent recovery from critical price points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝和锌目前也在下跌，反映了铜的趋势。然而，技术支撑水平仍然相关，尤其是在锌最近从关键价格点恢复之后。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $11,764.15 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous close. The aluminium contract was $2,914.75 per ton, up 0.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜合约报每吨 11,764.15 美元，较前一交易日上涨 0.3%。铝合约报每吨 2,914.75 美元，涨幅为 0.4%。</p>
</div><p>The post Commodity wrap: gold steady on rate cut hopes, oil rises on sanction fears appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品综述：黄金因降息预期保持稳定，油价因制裁担忧上涨，首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

商品综述：由于降息的预期，黄金价格保持稳定，而由于对制裁的担忧，油价上涨