<p>全球金属市场正在经历显著的分化，结构性需求推动黄金和铜的看涨前景，而周期性逆风则对工业材料施加压力。高盛已加大对 “长期看涨黄金” 的信心，预计到 2026 年黄金价格将上涨两位数。</p>
<ul>
<li>黄金目标价$4,900：高盛已识别出黄金的 14% 上行风险，预计到 2026 年 12 月价格将达到$4,900/盎司，这主要受到中央银行需求和其作为战略储备角色的推动。</li>
<li>铜与铝：该行维持 2035 年铜价目标为$15,000/吨，建议进行 “多头铜/空头铝” 的配对交易，以利用日益扩大的供需差距。</li>
<li>看跌压力：铝和铁矿石正面临 “全面过剩周期”，预计到 2026 年底铝价将下降近 20%，因为全球过剩情况加剧。</li>
</ul>
<h3>黄金技术面：捍卫 100 小时移动平均线</h3>
<p>在高盛的乐观报告之后，黄金价格走势表现出显著的韧性。在达到日内高点 <strong>$4,375.17</strong> 后——距离 10 月历史高点 <strong>$4,381.84</strong> 仅一步之遥——价格经历了一次小幅的修正。</p>
<p>关键是，日内回调在 <strong>100 小时移动平均线</strong>（图表上的蓝线）附近找到了积极的买家。尽管价格短暂跌破该水平至 <strong>$4,308.81</strong> 的低点，但未能维持在此水平。价格迅速回升至 <strong>$4,319</strong> 的移动平均线之上，确认了看涨偏向依然存在。</p>
<h3>通往$5,000 的路径：目标与风险水平</h3>
<p>为了验证高盛预计的 2026 年 12.8% 的涨幅，技术 “路线图” 必须与基本面叙述相一致。以下是需要关注的内容：</p>
<h4>看涨目标</h4>
<p>为了加速上涨趋势，买家需要：</p>
<ol>
<li>在 100 小时移动平均线（$4,319）上建立坚实的基础。</li>
<li>清除 10 月的历史高点$4,381.84。持续突破该水平是向心理里程碑$4,500 及最终$4,900–$5,000 区间迈进的 “绿灯”。</li>
</ol>
<h4>看跌风险</h4>
<p>如果卖方要获得立足点，他们必须：</p>
<ol>
<li>强迫价格在 100 小时移动平均线下方果断收盘。</li>
<li>将价格推向 200 小时移动平均线（目前为$4,268.85）。只有跌破 “绿线” 才会在短期内发出控制权从买方转向卖方的信号。</li>
</ol>
<h3>结构性与周期性：金属的分化</h3>
<p>高盛的展望突显出商品的明显 “质量” 偏好。虽然 <strong>黄金</strong> 和 <strong>铜</strong> 被视为中央银行储备和人工智能/绿色能源基础设施的结构性必需品，但 <strong>铝</strong> 和 <strong>铁矿石</strong> 正受到中国需求减弱和全球供应上升的影响。这使得黄金的技术水平变得更加重要，因为 “逢低买入” 的心态得到了长期机构持仓的支持。</p>
<h3>观看视频分析</h3>
<p>在上面的视频中，<strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>，_Attacking Currency Trends_的作者，提供了黄金图表的实时分析。他探讨了高盛的目标，识别了特定的小时移动平均线以定义风险，并概述了在短期内保持买方控制的下一个上行目标。</p>

高盛

<p>高盛预测黄金将有显著上涨，预计到 2026 年 12 月价格将达到每盎司 4,900 美元，主要受中央银行需求推动。该银行还建议进行 “多铜/空铝” 的交易，原因在于供需动态。黄金的韧性体现在其回升至 100 小时移动平均线之上，目标设定在 4,500 美元和 5,000 美元。同时，铝的前景看跌，预计到 2026 年将下跌 20%。分析强调了黄金和铜作为战略储备和基础设施必需品的偏好</p>

<p>The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its &#34;long gold&#34; conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球金属市场正在经历显著的分化，结构性需求推动黄金和铜的看涨前景，而周期性逆风则对工业材料施加压力。高盛已加大对 “长期看涨黄金” 的信心，预计到 2026 年黄金价格将上涨两位数。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold, forecasting prices to hit $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and its role as a strategic reserve.</li>
<li>Copper vs. Aluminum: The bank maintains a $15,000/ton target for copper by 2035, recommending a &#34;long copper / short aluminum&#34; pair trade to capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap.</li>
<li>Bearish Pressure: Aluminum and iron ore are facing a &#34;full oversupply cycle,&#34; with aluminum expected to drop nearly 20% by the end of 2026 as global surpluses expand.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>黄金目标价$4,900：高盛已识别出黄金的 14% 上行风险，预计到 2026 年 12 月价格将达到$4,900/盎司，这主要受到中央银行需求和其作为战略储备角色的推动。</li>
<li>铜与铝：该行维持 2035 年铜价目标为$15,000/吨，建议进行 “多头铜/空头铝” 的配对交易，以利用日益扩大的供需差距。</li>
<li>看跌压力：铝和铁矿石正面临 “全面过剩周期”，预计到 2026 年底铝价将下降近 20%，因为全球过剩情况加剧。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3>Gold Technicals: Defending the 100-Hour Moving Average</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>黄金技术面：捍卫 100 小时移动平均线</h3>
</div><p>Following Goldman's optimistic report, gold price action has remained remarkably resilient. After reaching a daily high of <strong>$4,375.17</strong>—falling just short of the October all-time high of <strong>$4,381.84</strong>—the price faced a minor corrective rotation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高盛的乐观报告之后，黄金价格走势表现出显著的韧性。在达到日内高点 <strong>$4,375.17</strong> 后——距离 10 月历史高点 <strong>$4,381.84</strong> 仅一步之遥——价格经历了一次小幅的修正。</p>
</div><p>Crucially, the intraday dip found aggressive buyers near the <strong>100-hour moving average</strong> (the blue line on your chart). Despite briefly slipping below this level to a low of <strong>$4,308.81</strong>, the price failed to stay down. The quick recovery above the <strong>$4,319</strong> moving average confirms that bullish bias remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是，日内回调在 <strong>100 小时移动平均线</strong>（图表上的蓝线）附近找到了积极的买家。尽管价格短暂跌破该水平至 <strong>$4,308.81</strong> 的低点，但未能维持在此水平。价格迅速回升至 <strong>$4,319</strong> 的移动平均线之上，确认了看涨偏向依然存在。</p>
</div><h3>The Path to $5,000: Targets and Risk Levels</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>通往$5,000 的路径：目标与风险水平</h3>
</div><p>To validate Goldman Sachs' 12.8% projected run for 2026, the technical &#34;roadmap&#34; must align with the fundamental narrative. Here is what to watch:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了验证高盛预计的 2026 年 12.8% 的涨幅，技术 “路线图” 必须与基本面叙述相一致。以下是需要关注的内容：</p>
</div><h4>The Bullish Objective</h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4>看涨目标</h4>
</div><p>For the uptrend to accelerate, buyers need to:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了加速上涨趋势，买家需要：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Establish a firm base above the 100-hour moving average ($4,319).</li>
<li>Clear the October all-time high of $4,381.84. A sustained break above this level is the &#34;green light&#34; for a move toward psychological milestones at $4,500 and eventually the $4,900–$5,000 zone.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>在 100 小时移动平均线（$4,319）上建立坚实的基础。</li>
<li>清除 10 月的历史高点$4,381.84。持续突破该水平是向心理里程碑$4,500 及最终$4,900–$5,000 区间迈进的 “绿灯”。</li>
</ol>
</div><h4>The Bearish Risk</h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4>看跌风险</h4>
</div><p>If the sellers are to gain a foothold, they must:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果卖方要获得立足点，他们必须：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Force a decisive close below the 100-hour MA.</li>
<li>Push the price toward the 200-hour moving average (currently at $4,268.85). Only a break below the &#34;green line&#34; would signal a shift in control from the buyers to the sellers in the short term.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>强迫价格在 100 小时移动平均线下方果断收盘。</li>
<li>将价格推向 200 小时移动平均线（目前为$4,268.85）。只有跌破 “绿线” 才会在短期内发出控制权从买方转向卖方的信号。</li>
</ol>
</div><h3>Structural vs. Cyclical: The Metals Divide</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>结构性与周期性：金属的分化</h3>
</div><p>Goldman's outlook highlights a clear &#34;quality&#34; preference in commodities. While <strong>Gold</strong> and <strong>Copper</strong> are viewed as structural necessities for central bank reserves and AI/Green energy infrastructure, <strong>Aluminum</strong> and <strong>Iron Ore</strong> are suffering from weakening Chinese demand and rising global supply. This makes technical levels in gold even more vital, as the &#34;buy the dip&#34; mentality is supported by long-term institutional positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛的展望突显出商品的明显 “质量” 偏好。虽然 <strong>黄金</strong> 和 <strong>铜</strong> 被视为中央银行储备和人工智能/绿色能源基础设施的结构性必需品，但 <strong>铝</strong> 和 <strong>铁矿石</strong> 正受到中国需求减弱和全球供应上升的影响。这使得黄金的技术水平变得更加重要，因为 “逢低买入” 的心态得到了长期机构持仓的支持。</p>
</div><h3>Watch the Video Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>观看视频分析</h3>
</div><p>In the video above, <strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>, author of <em>Attacking Currency Trends</em>, provides a real-time breakdown of the gold charts. He explores the Goldman Sachs targets, identifies the specific hourly moving averages to define your risk, and outlines the next upside targets that would keep the buyers in control at least in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上面的视频中，<strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>，_Attacking Currency Trends_的作者，提供了黄金图表的实时分析。他探讨了高盛的目标，识别了特定的小时移动平均线以定义风险，并概述了在短期内保持买方控制的下一个上行目标。</p>
</div>

黄金：高盛预测到 2026 年将有显著上涨空间