<p>作者：Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<p>“再退休” 现象能告诉我们关于就业市场的什么</p>
<p>如今，经济学家们在劳动力市场方面感到困惑。</p>
<p>首先，九月份的月度就业报告晚了一个月发布，而十月份的报告则完全取消。此外，现有的数据也发出了混合信号。新增就业岗位的数量已经减缓到几乎停滞的状态。但失业率在历史标准下仍然保持较低水平。职位空缺和员工辞职率——分别衡量找工作有多容易和人们离职的舒适度——正在迅速下降（不利），但也与历史平均水平相符（有利）。这到底是怎么回事？</p>
<p>在这种情况下，我会寻找任何可以找到的劳动力市场健康指标。作为一名退休研究者，我个人最喜欢的指标之一就是再退休率。</p>
<p>再退休率正如其名：在某一时点声称已退休的工人，随后在一年后报告他们正在工作的人所占的比例。</p>
<p>再退休是老年工人解决财务和非财务问题的一种方式。一些退休人员面临财务压力，因为储蓄率低、医疗费用高和寿命延长；而一些人发现退休并不是他们所期待的，他们可能会怀念工作带来的社交联系和目标感。</p>
<p>阅读：MarketWatch 的《再退休视角》专栏</p>
<p>人们可以想象，高比例的再退休现象对经济来说是个坏兆头，例如因为股市下跌，退休人员需要工作来弥补损失。</p>
<p>但总体而言，研究表明，股市并不会驱动退休行为。相反，工人在就业市场强劲时更容易选择再退休。因此，观察再退休率可以告诉我们更广泛的就业市场情况以及未来可能的发展方向。当再退休率较高时，劳动力市场可能会较好。</p>
<p>为了检查再退休率的现状，我查阅了通常发布月度就业报告的同一调查，即当前人口调查（CPS）。我识别出在 CPS 采访时声称已退休的 55 岁及以上工人。然后，我利用 CPS 的纵向特征，在一年后再次跟进这些相同的个体。那些在那时表示自己有工作的被认为是再退休。</p>
<p>图 1 显示了从 COVID-19 疫情前到最新可用数据的再退休者比例。（图表上的时间段表示首次采访时的时间——在 2024 年 8 月声称已退休并在 2025 年 8 月工作的人会被计入 2024 年 8 月的再退休率。）</p>
<p>图表用红色突出显示了人们在 COVID 就业市场中再退休的时期——具体来说，是在 2019 年 3 月至 2020 年 12 月之间退休的人——以及在 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 12 月之间再退休的人。</p>
<p>该图并没有描绘出当前就业市场的特别美好画面。在 COVID-19 疫情前，再退休率平均接近 3%。那一时期正值长期经济扩张的末期，因此当时的再退休率可以视为 “良好” 就业市场的基准。</p>
<p>对于那些本应在 COVID 劳动市场中再退休的人，该数字平均为 2.2%，最低降至 1.8%。根据最新可用数据，该比例更像是 COVID 时期的水平，而非扩张时期的水平。最新的再退休率仅为 1.9%。</p>
<p>在劳动力市场数据稀少且相互矛盾的情况下，任何指标都能提供帮助。如今较低的再退休率表明，老年工人发现重新进入劳动力市场困难，因此选择观望。在接下来的几个月里，我将关注其他劳动力市场数据是否也开始显得同样黯淡。</p>
<p>-Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>12-18-25 1503ET</p>

<p>这篇文章探讨了 “再就业” 作为劳动市场指标，质疑退休人员重返工作是否意味着经济强劲或衰退。目前的劳动数据发出混合信号：失业率低但职位空缺减少。再就业率较低，表明老年工人在重新进入就业市场时面临挑战，这可能暗示劳动市场较弱</p>

<p>By Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
</div><p>What &#34;unretirements&#34; can tell us about the job market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“再退休” 现象能告诉我们关于就业市场的什么</p>
</div><p>These days, economists find themselves in a fog with respect to the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，经济学家们在劳动力市场方面感到困惑。</p>
</div><p>First, there's the fact that the monthly jobs report for September was released a month late and the October report was canceled entirely. But, on top of that, the data that do exist are giving mixed signals. The number of jobs being added to the economy has slowed to a crawl. But, the unemployment rate has remained low by historical standards. Job openings and worker quits - which respectively measure how easy it is to get a job and how comfortable people feel leaving one - are falling quickly (bad) but also in line with historical averages (good). What's going on?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，九月份的月度就业报告晚了一个月发布，而十月份的报告则完全取消。此外，现有的数据也发出了混合信号。新增就业岗位的数量已经减缓到几乎停滞的状态。但失业率在历史标准下仍然保持较低水平。职位空缺和员工辞职率——分别衡量找工作有多容易和人们离职的舒适度——正在迅速下降（不利），但也与历史平均水平相符（有利）。这到底是怎么回事？</p>
</div><p>In these situations, I turn to any measure of labor market health that I can find. As a retirement researcher, one of my personal favorites is the unretirement rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，我会寻找任何可以找到的劳动力市场健康指标。作为一名退休研究者，我个人最喜欢的指标之一就是再退休率。</p>
</div><p>The unretirement rate is exactly what it sounds like: the share of workers who claim to be retired at a given point and then report that they are working a year later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再退休率正如其名：在某一时点声称已退休的工人，随后在一年后报告他们正在工作的人所占的比例。</p>
</div><p>Unretirement is a way for older workers to solve both financial and nonfinancial problems. Some retirees face financial pressures because of low savings rates, high medical costs, and longer lifespans; and some find that retirement isn't what they expected and they may miss the social connection and sense of purpose that can come with a job.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再退休是老年工人解决财务和非财务问题的一种方式。一些退休人员面临财务压力，因为储蓄率低、医疗费用高和寿命延长；而一些人发现退休并不是他们所期待的，他们可能会怀念工作带来的社交联系和目标感。</p>
</div><p>Read: MarketWatch's The View From Unretirement column</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：MarketWatch 的《再退休视角》专栏</p>
</div><p>One could imagine that high rates of unretirement are a bad sign for the economy, for example because the stock market is down and retirees need to work to recoup their losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们可以想象，高比例的再退休现象对经济来说是个坏兆头，例如因为股市下跌，退休人员需要工作来弥补损失。</p>
</div><p>But, in general, the research suggests that the stock market does not drive behavior around retirement. Instead, workers tend to unretire when it is easiest to do so, when the job market is strong. So, looking at the rate of unretirement can tell us something about the broader job market and just where it might be going. When the unretirement rate is high, the labor market is likely to be good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但总体而言，研究表明，股市并不会驱动退休行为。相反，工人在就业市场强劲时更容易选择再退休。因此，观察再退休率可以告诉我们更广泛的就业市场情况以及未来可能的发展方向。当再退休率较高时，劳动力市场可能会较好。</p>
</div><p>To examine where the unretirement rate stands, I went to the same survey from which those monthly employment reports (usually) come, the Current Population Survey (CPS). I identified workers ages 55 and over who claimed to be retired when they were interviewed by the CPS. Then, I used the longitudinal feature of the CPS to follow up with those same individuals when they were interviewed one year later. Those who said that they were employed at that time were said to have unretired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了检查再退休率的现状，我查阅了通常发布月度就业报告的同一调查，即当前人口调查（CPS）。我识别出在 CPS 采访时声称已退休的 55 岁及以上工人。然后，我利用 CPS 的纵向特征，在一年后再次跟进这些相同的个体。那些在那时表示自己有工作的被认为是再退休。</p>
</div><p>Figure 1 shows the share of retirees who unretired from just before COVID-19 pandemic until the most recent data available. (The time period on the graph indicates when the person was first interviewed - someone who said they were retired in August 2024 and working in August 2025 contributes to the August 2024 unretirement rate.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图 1 显示了从 COVID-19 疫情前到最新可用数据的再退休者比例。（图表上的时间段表示首次采访时的时间——在 2024 年 8 月声称已退休并在 2025 年 8 月工作的人会被计入 2024 年 8 月的再退休率。）</p>
</div><p>The graph highlights in red the period when people would have been unretiring into the COVID job market - specifically, people retired between March 2019 and December 2020 - and who would have been unretiring from March 2020 to December 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表用红色突出显示了人们在 COVID 就业市场中再退休的时期——具体来说，是在 2019 年 3 月至 2020 年 12 月之间退休的人——以及在 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 12 月之间再退休的人。</p>
</div><p>The figure doesn't paint an especially flattering picture of the current job market. Just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the unretirement rate averaged nearly 3%. That time period was at the end of a long economic expansion, so the unretirement rate then could be looked at as a benchmark for a &#34;good&#34; job market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该图并没有描绘出当前就业市场的特别美好画面。在 COVID-19 疫情前，再退休率平均接近 3%。那一时期正值长期经济扩张的末期，因此当时的再退休率可以视为 “良好” 就业市场的基准。</p>
</div><p>For people who would have been unretiring into the COVID labor market, that number averaged 2.2% and bottomed out at 1.8%. For the most recent data available, the rate looks a lot more like the COVID rate than the expansion rate. The most recent unretirement rate available sits at just 1.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些本应在 COVID 劳动市场中再退休的人，该数字平均为 2.2%，最低降至 1.8%。根据最新可用数据，该比例更像是 COVID 时期的水平，而非扩张时期的水平。最新的再退休率仅为 1.9%。</p>
</div><p>At a time when labor market data are scant and conflicting, any measure can help. The low rate of unretirement today suggests that older workers are finding it difficult to re-enter the labor market and thus staying on the sidelines. In the coming months, I'm keeping my eye on whether the rest of the labor market data start to look similarly bleak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在劳动力市场数据稀少且相互矛盾的情况下，任何指标都能提供帮助。如今较低的再退休率表明，老年工人发现重新进入劳动力市场困难，因此选择观望。在接下来的几个月里，我将关注其他劳动力市场数据是否也开始显得同样黯淡。</p>
</div><p>-Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>12-18-25 1503ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-18-25 1503ET</p>
</div>

当退休人员重返工作岗位时，这是否表明劳动力市场强劲，还是经济衰退的信号？