<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2014/11/01/22/33/gold-513062_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2014/11/01/22/33/gold-513062_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>黄金（XAU/USD）在周四抹去早前的涨幅，此前这种无收益金属触及 4,374 美元，接近历史高点 4,381 美元，此时美国发布的通胀报告低于预期。撰写时，XAU/USD 交易于 4,335 美元。</p>
<h2>贵金属回落，市场质疑通胀数据的可靠性，保持 1 月美联储降息概率不变</h2>
<p>根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，11 月份核心美国消费者价格指数（CPI）降至 2021 年初以来的最低水平。总体和核心 CPI 均有所下降，但经济学家警告称，持续 43 天的政府停摆可能会扭曲 BLS 工作人员为发布编制的一些数据。</p>
<p>随着通胀缓解，市场对美联储可能降息的预期应有所上升，但交易员对数据持谨慎态度，因为劳工部在最新的初请失业金报告中显示就业数据表现良好。</p>
<p>根据 Capital Edge 的利率概率数据，市场对美联储在 1 月 28 日的下一次会议上降息的预期保持在 24% 不变。尽管如此，投资者预计全年将降息 60 个基点，首次降息预计在 6 月进行。</p>
<p>这将使美元承压，并为贵金属价格提供支持。</p>
<p>与此同时，地缘政治紧张局势的缓解可能会限制黄金的上涨，因为美国与俄罗斯的谈判预计将在迈阿密的周末恢复，Politico 报道。</p>
<p>接下来，美国经济日程将发布美联储最看重的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，以及密歇根大学消费者信心指数的最终发布。</p>
<h2>每日市场动态：黄金未能获得动力，因美国通胀回落</h2>
<ul>
<li>根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，11 月份美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%，低于 9 月份的 3.0%，且低于市场预期的 3.1%。不包括食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比降至 2.6%，低于之前的 3.0%，显示出潜在通胀压力进一步缓解。</li>
<li>截至 12 月 13 日当周的初请失业金人数降至 224K，低于向下修正后的 237K 和市场预期的 225K，来自美国劳工部的数据。</li>
<li>根据瑞士海关周四发布的数据，瑞士对印度的实物黄金出口下降了 15%，为 2 月份以来的最低水平，原因是价格较高。</li>
<li>11 月份瑞士对印度的黄金出口骤降至 2 吨，较 10 月份的 26 吨大幅下降，而对中国这一主要贵金属消费国的出口则从 2 吨上升至 12 吨。</li>
<li>美国国债收益率下跌，10 年期基准票据利率下降 3 个基点至 4.12%。与黄金价格呈反向相关的美国实际收益率下降 4 个基点至 1.88%。</li>
<li>跟踪美元对六种主要货币表现的美元指数（DXY）上涨 0.03%，报 98.43。</li>
</ul>
<h2>技术分析：黄金上涨趋势暂停，跌破 4,350 美元</h2>
<p>黄金似乎已经巩固，因为买家未能突破之前的历史高点 4,381 美元，挑战 4,400 美元关口。看涨动能正在减弱，正如相对强弱指数（RSI）所示，已从超买区域回落。</p>
<p>如果 XAU/USD 在日线收盘低于 4,350 美元，第一支撑位将是 4,300 美元。突破后者将暴露出 12 月 11 日的高点 4,285 美元，进一步支撑位在 4,250 美元，之后可能会向 4,200 美元回调。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjA4NzM4NTAwMy0xNzY2MDg3Mzg1MDAzLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjA4NzM4NTAwMy0xNzY2MDg3Mzg1MDAzLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY"/></p>
<p><em>黄金日线图</em></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>GBP/USD 在温和 CPI 压力下坚挺，英央行立场支持英镑</p>
<p>EUR/USD 在美元走强和欧元区通胀缓解中徘徊</p>
<p>黄金突破 4,330 美元，因美国就业数据和委内瑞拉局势升级引发避险潮</p>

<p>黄金价格在接近历史高点后因美国通胀数据低于预期而下跌。尽管通胀有所缓解，但美联储降息预期保持不变，1 月份降息的可能性为 24%。地缘政治紧张局势的缓解可能限制黄金的上涨。美国经济指标和技术分析显示黄金的看涨动能正在减弱，并识别出潜在的支撑位。瑞士对印度的黄金出口大幅下降，而对中国的出口则有所增加。美国国债收益率和实际收益率下降，影响了黄金价格</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2014/11/01/22/33/gold-513062_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2014/11/01/22/33/gold-513062_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Gold (XAU/USD) erases earlier gains on Thursday after the non-yielding metal hit $4,374 and approached the all-time high of $4,381 following the release of a weaker-than-expected inflation report in the US. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,335.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金（XAU/USD）在周四抹去早前的涨幅，此前这种无收益金属触及 4,374 美元，接近历史高点 4,381 美元，此时美国发布的通胀报告低于预期。撰写时，XAU/USD 交易于 4,335 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Bullion retreats as markets question inflation data reliability, keep January Fed cut odds unchanged</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贵金属回落，市场质疑通胀数据的可靠性，保持 1 月美联储降息概率不变</h2>
</div><p>The core US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print in November fell to its lowest level since early 2021, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Both headlined and core CPIs dipped, but economists warned that the 43-day government shutdown could distort some of the data that BLS workers compile for the release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，11 月份核心美国消费者价格指数（CPI）降至 2021 年初以来的最低水平。总体和核心 CPI 均有所下降，但经济学家警告称，持续 43 天的政府停摆可能会扭曲 BLS 工作人员为发布编制的一些数据。</p>
</div><p>As inflation eased, expectations that the Fed could cut rates should rise, but traders took the data with a pinch of salt because the jobs data was solid, as the Department of Labor revealed in the latest Initial Jobless Claims report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着通胀缓解，市场对美联储可能降息的预期应有所上升，但交易员对数据持谨慎态度，因为劳工部在最新的初请失业金报告中显示就业数据表现良好。</p>
</div><p>Expectations that the Fed will cut rates at the next meeting on January 28 remain unchanged at 24%, according to Capital Edge Rate probability data. Nonetheless, for the full year ahead, investors have priced 60 basis points of easing, with the first cut expected in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Capital Edge 的利率概率数据，市场对美联储在 1 月 28 日的下一次会议上降息的预期保持在 24% 不变。尽管如此，投资者预计全年将降息 60 个基点，首次降息预计在 6 月进行。</p>
</div><p>This should keep the US Dollar pressured and a tailwind for Bullion prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将使美元承压，并为贵金属价格提供支持。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions could cap Gold’s advance as talks between the US and Russia are set to resume during the weekend in Miami, according to Politico.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，地缘政治紧张局势的缓解可能会限制黄金的上涨，因为美国与俄罗斯的谈判预计将在迈阿密的周末恢复，Politico 报道。</p>
</div><p>Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for its final release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，美国经济日程将发布美联储最看重的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，以及密歇根大学消费者信心指数的最终发布。</p>
</div><h2>Daily digest market movers: Gold fails to gain traction as US inflation dips</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每日市场动态：黄金未能获得动力，因美国通胀回落</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in November, easing from 3.0% in September and falling short of market expectations for a 3.1% increase, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, cooled to 2.6% YoY, down from 3.0% previously, signaling further easing in underlying inflation pressures.</li>
<li>Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13 declined to 224K, down from the downwardly revised 237K prior reading and below forecasts of 225K, according to the US Department of Labor.</li>
<li>A contraction in physical Gold exports from Switzerland to India dropped 15%, its lowest level since February, according to Swiss customs on data released on Thursday. The reason behind the contraction is that prices are higher.</li>
<li>Gold exports from Switzerland to India plunged to 2 metric tons in November, down sharply from 26 tons in October, while shipments to China, another major bullion consumer, rose to 12 tons from 2 tons over the same period.</li>
<li>US Treasury yields are falling, with the 10-year benchmark note rate down three basis points at 4.12%. US real yields, which correlate inversely with Gold prices, plunged four basis points to 1.88%.</li>
<li>The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenbacks’ performance against a basket of six peers, is up 0.03% at 98.43.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，11 月份美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%，低于 9 月份的 3.0%，且低于市场预期的 3.1%。不包括食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比降至 2.6%，低于之前的 3.0%，显示出潜在通胀压力进一步缓解。</li>
<li>截至 12 月 13 日当周的初请失业金人数降至 224K，低于向下修正后的 237K 和市场预期的 225K，来自美国劳工部的数据。</li>
<li>根据瑞士海关周四发布的数据，瑞士对印度的实物黄金出口下降了 15%，为 2 月份以来的最低水平，原因是价格较高。</li>
<li>11 月份瑞士对印度的黄金出口骤降至 2 吨，较 10 月份的 26 吨大幅下降，而对中国这一主要贵金属消费国的出口则从 2 吨上升至 12 吨。</li>
<li>美国国债收益率下跌，10 年期基准票据利率下降 3 个基点至 4.12%。与黄金价格呈反向相关的美国实际收益率下降 4 个基点至 1.88%。</li>
<li>跟踪美元对六种主要货币表现的美元指数（DXY）上涨 0.03%，报 98.43。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Technical Analysis: Gold’s uptrend pauses as it drops below $4,350</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术分析：黄金上涨趋势暂停，跌破 4,350 美元</h2>
</div><p>Gold seems to have consolidated as buyers failed to clear the previous record high of $4,381 to challenge the $4,400 mark. Bullish momentum is fading, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which retreated from overbought territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金似乎已经巩固，因为买家未能突破之前的历史高点 4,381 美元，挑战 4,400 美元关口。看涨动能正在减弱，正如相对强弱指数（RSI）所示，已从超买区域回落。</p>
</div><p>If XAU/USD closes below $4,350 on a daily basis, the first support would be $4,300. A breach of the latter will expose the December 11 high at $4,285, with further support at $4,250 ahead of a deeper pullback toward $4,200.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 XAU/USD 在日线收盘低于 4,350 美元，第一支撑位将是 4,300 美元。突破后者将暴露出 12 月 11 日的高点 4,285 美元，进一步支撑位在 4,250 美元，之后可能会向 4,200 美元回调。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjA4NzM4NTAwMy0xNzY2MDg3Mzg1MDAzLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY" alt="" original-src="https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.fxsstatic.com%2Fmiscelaneous%2Fimage-1766087385003-1766087385003.png&amp;w=1536&amp;q=95"/></p>
<p><em>Gold daily chart</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>黄金日线图</em></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>GBP/USD Firm As Soft CPI Pressures Dollar, BoE Stance Supports Sterling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GBP/USD 在温和 CPI 压力下坚挺，英央行立场支持英镑</p>
</div><p>EUR/USD Treads Water With Dollar Firmer And EZ Inflation Easing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR/USD 在美元走强和欧元区通胀缓解中徘徊</p>
</div><p>Gold Blasts Above $4,330 As U.S. Jobs Data And Venezuela Flare-Up Spark Haven Rush</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金突破 4,330 美元，因美国就业数据和委内瑞拉局势升级引发避险潮</p>
</div>

黄金失去光彩，因为支持美联储降息的投资者在权衡温和 CPI 数据的鸽派影响