<p>中国人民银行将在格林威治标准时间 0115（美国东部时间 2115）左右设定每日美元/人民币参考汇率，这一定价仍然是亚洲外汇市场中最受关注的信号之一。</p>
<p>中国实行管理浮动汇率制度，人民币（元）允许在中国人民银行每天设定的中心参考汇率或中点周围的规定区间内交易。目前的交易区间允许人民币在岸交易时相对于官方中点波动上下 2%。</p>
<p>每个早晨，中国人民银行根据一系列输入因素确定中点。这些因素包括前一天的收盘价、主要货币（特别是美元）的波动、国际外汇市场的整体状况，以及国内经济因素，如资本流动、增长势头和金融稳定目标。中点的确定并非纯粹的机械计算，允许政策制定者在引导市场预期时有一定的自由裁量权。</p>
<p>一旦中点公布，在岸美元/人民币可以在允许的区间内自由交易。如果市场压力将人民币推向该区间的任一边缘，中央银行可能会介入以平抑波动。干预可以采取直接买入或卖出人民币、调整流动性条件或通过国有银行进行引导的形式。</p>
<p>因此，日常定价通常被解读为政策信号，而不仅仅是技术参考点。高于预期的人民币中点通常被解读为中国人民银行倾向于抵御贬值压力的迹象，而人民币的低定价则可能表明对较软货币的容忍，通常是对美元强势或国内经济逆风的反应。</p>
<p>在全球波动加剧的时期，例如美国利率预期的变化、贸易紧张局势或资本流动压力，定价的意义更加重大。对于投资者而言，这提供了对北京货币优先事项的洞察，平衡竞争力、资本稳定和金融市场信心。</p>

<p>中国人民银行预计将美元对人民币的基准汇率设定为 7.0378，这是亚洲外汇市场的一个关键信号。人民银行的每日汇率中间价影响人民币的交易区间，允许从中间价上下波动 2%。这一汇率反映了更广泛的经济因素，并可以指示有关货币稳定和市场预期的政策意图</p>

<p>The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国人民银行将在格林威治标准时间 0115（美国东部时间 2115）左右设定每日美元/人民币参考汇率，这一定价仍然是亚洲外汇市场中最受关注的信号之一。</p>
</div><p>China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国实行管理浮动汇率制度，人民币（元）允许在中国人民银行每天设定的中心参考汇率或中点周围的规定区间内交易。目前的交易区间允许人民币在岸交易时相对于官方中点波动上下 2%。</p>
</div><p>Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个早晨，中国人民银行根据一系列输入因素确定中点。这些因素包括前一天的收盘价、主要货币（特别是美元）的波动、国际外汇市场的整体状况，以及国内经济因素，如资本流动、增长势头和金融稳定目标。中点的确定并非纯粹的机械计算，允许政策制定者在引导市场预期时有一定的自由裁量权。</p>
</div><p>Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦中点公布，在岸美元/人民币可以在允许的区间内自由交易。如果市场压力将人民币推向该区间的任一边缘，中央银行可能会介入以平抑波动。干预可以采取直接买入或卖出人民币、调整流动性条件或通过国有银行进行引导的形式。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，日常定价通常被解读为政策信号，而不仅仅是技术参考点。高于预期的人民币中点通常被解读为中国人民银行倾向于抵御贬值压力的迹象，而人民币的低定价则可能表明对较软货币的容忍，通常是对美元强势或国内经济逆风的反应。</p>
</div><p>In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球波动加剧的时期，例如美国利率预期的变化、贸易紧张局势或资本流动压力，定价的意义更加重大。对于投资者而言，这提供了对北京货币优先事项的洞察，平衡竞争力、资本稳定和金融市场信心。</p>
</div>

据路透社估计，中国人民银行预计将美元兑人民币的参考汇率设定为 7.0378