蓝猫资本在周三让人工智能投资者感到不安，原因是《金融时报》报道该公司决定不为甲骨文在密歇根州建设的一个价值 100 亿美元的数据中心提供股权支持。该设施是甲骨文与 OpenAI 在其星际 AI 基础设施计划下的合作的一部分。蓝猫资本因担心与之前交易相比，租赁和债务条款不够有利而改变了决定。此外，蓝猫资本还担心地方政治可能导致的延误。
也许，蓝猫资本最担心的是甲骨文的债务正在迅速增加。例如，甲骨文的债务超过 1270 亿美元，其中约 20% 将在三年内到期。此外，在过去的 12 个月中，甲骨文报告了负自由现金流。分析师预计至少在未来两年内不会转为正值。如下所示，甲骨文的信用违约掉期迅速上升。有关甲骨文 CDS 的更多信息，请查看我们 11 月的评论。
甲骨文对失去蓝猫资本融资的影响表示异议。他们声称拥有多个资金来源，包括黑石和美国银行，这将使其能够继续推进密歇根项目。请参见今天的推文。然而，这对更广泛的市场而言，进一步引发了投资者对融资大规模 AI 数据中心扩张的担忧。虽然电网一直是投资者的主要关注点，但迅速上升的债务水平和大型基础设施项目的融资可能是第二个重要问题。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-cds-1024x578.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="578" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-cds-1024x578.png"/>
<h3>今天关注的事项</h3>
财报
(点击图片放大)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-100-1024x116.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="116" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-100-1024x116.png"/>
经济
(点击图片放大)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-99-1024x299.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="299" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-99-1024x299.png"/>
<h3>市场交易更新</h3>
昨天， 我们讨论了每周的技术背景，这表明整体市场正在进行_“重新校准”_。今天我想把注意力转向石油。
如图所示，石油价格在持续的供应过剩中急剧下降，从 1 月份的 80 美元/桶降至今天的 60 美元以下。
(点击图片放大)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-101.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="900" height="396" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-101.png"/>
批发和零售燃料价格已经下降，达到了疫情以来未见的水平，即使假期旅行的需求在增加。随着主要基准的供应过剩加剧，这迫使卖家抛售货物，进一步压低价格。财务状况较弱的生产商，如中型 E&amp;P 公司，正面临与市场下滑相关的股价压力。此外，行业调查显示，目前和预期的活动仍然低迷，许多生产商对 2026 年的价格预期低于盈亏平衡水平。
这并不是一个强劲反弹能源价格的良好背景。然而，投资者面临的一个重大问题是，他们是否应该在今天建立能源头寸，以期待未来需求的复苏。那么，什么因素可能导致 2026 年油价上涨呢？一些原因显而易见，另一些则不然。
 1. OPEC+ 政策的逆转： 如果 OPEC+ 决定进一步减产或比预期更长时间维持现有减产，供应将会收紧。由于某些地区的库存已经很低，这将对价格施加立即的上行压力。如果美国页岩油生产也继续放缓，这将加剧影响。

 2. 美元走弱： 石油在全球以美元定价。如果由于美联储降息或美国财政失衡导致美元走弱，石油在外币中变得更便宜。这可以提升全球需求并推高价格，即使供应保持不变。

 3. 全球经济增长快于预期： 如果全球增长重新加速——尤其是在中国、印度和东南亚——石油需求可能会显著上升。工业活动、货运和消费者旅行的同步反弹可能会倾斜供需平衡。

 4 . 运输需求的复苏： 尽管电动车的推动，大多数全球车队仍然以化石燃料为基础。电动车渗透的任何延迟或汽油和柴油车辆使用的复苏都可能对需求产生意外的上行影响。

 _5. 人工智能和数据中心： 虽然数据中心消耗大量电力，但它们目前并不依赖于基于石油的燃料。大多数从电网获取电力，而电力主要来自天然气、煤炭、核能和可再生能源。如果数据中心的建设继续激增，这将提升电力需求，但除非电网短缺迫使备用柴油发电，否则对石油市场的溢出影响将是微乎其微的。这在基础设施薄弱或电网不稳定的地区是合理的。
如果你认为 2026 年油价上涨的风险是可能的，你应该如何考虑今天的投资组合定位？至关重要的是，这不是一个_“交易”_，而是需要长期的、选择性的定位，以期待最终的反转。
1. 优先考虑现金流强劲的生产商：大型综合性石油公司具有较低的生产成本、多元化的资产和强劲的现金流，更能抵御低价环境。这些公司往往在原油价格下跌时仍能维持分红和回购，为股东提供缓冲。
2. 避免高杠杆的勘探与生产公司：较小的勘探和生产公司通常需要油价在每桶 60-65 美元以上才能资助增长和偿还债务。由于预测集中在这些水平以下，这些股票的风险较高。
3. 使用行业 ETF 以获得广泛的曝光：能源行业 ETF 提供对多个公司的多元化投资，降低单一公司风险。这些可以作为寻求利用商品价格反弹或行业重新评级的投资者的核心持仓。
4. 在低价环境中，股息收益率至关重要：具有强劲股息收益率的能源股票即使在价格平稳的环境中也能提供收入。再投资股息在价格低迷时提高总回报潜力。
5. 监测领先指标并积极管理风险：石油库存、OPEC 政策变化、钻井数量和全球需求数据应指导交易时机。保护性期权或备兑看涨期权等对冲策略有助于在波动市场中管理下行风险。
6. 时间跨度必须反映疲软的价格趋势：鉴于对低价的预测，短期交易者应采用定投策略逐步进入头寸，避免单点市场时机把握。长期持有者应关注生产纪律、资本支出纪律和股息可持续性等结构性因素。
能源行业在多元化投资组合中仍然相关，但 市场环境目前对油价持悲观态度，预计持续到 2026 年。投资应偏向于 质量、现金流、资产负债表强度和多元化曝光，而非投机性押注。即使在价格疲软的周期中，纪律严明的能源公司也能通过分红和运营效率为股东创造回报。
相应交易。
<h3>CPI 低于预期</h3>
美国劳工部发布了涵盖政府停摆期间的 10 月-11 月 CPI 报告。CPI 为 2.7%，远低于 3.1% 的预期。核心 CPI 也比市场共识低 0.4 个百分点，达到 2.6%。租金价格，即住房成本，占 CPI 的 40%，年化增长为 1.6%，不到前三个月 3.8% 增速的一半。尽管通胀数据无疑是个好消息，但市场可能会对此表示怀疑，并对劳工部为弥补 10 月数据空白所做的具体调整提出质疑。
市场怀疑的证据在债券市场对这一消息的反应平淡中显而易见。下图由 FinViz 提供，显示了十年期国债期货的价格。在东部时间 8:30，数据发布时，价格上涨了约 50 美分，但半小时后又回到了发布前的水平。同样，联邦基金期货几乎没有波动，表明 CPI 发布并未影响 1 月 28 日会议上降息的可能性。债券投资者可能会忽视 CPI 报告，但会对下一份报告给予高度重视。如果那份报告也确认近期通胀放缓，债券可能会出现更大幅度的反弹。请继续关注！
(点击图片放大)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ten-year-futures-1024x316.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="316" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ten-year-futures-1024x316.png"/>
<h3>今日推文</h3>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-blue-owl.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="594" height="232" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-blue-owl.png"/>
<hr/>
更多来自此作者的文章：
房利美和房地美为债券市场增加数十亿
凯文·沃什还是凯文·哈塞特？
沃什参与竞选：美联储主席的赔率变动

甲骨文

蓝猫资本决定不为甲骨文在密歇根州的 100 亿美元数据中心提供股权支持，该项目是其与 OpenAI 合作的一部分。担忧包括不利的租赁和债务条款、地方政治延误以及甲骨文日益增加的债务。甲骨文声称它有其他融资来源，但这一决定引发了投资者对人工智能数据中心融资的更广泛担忧。此外，由于供应过剩，油价已经下降，未来的潜在上涨将取决于 OPEC+ 政策和全球经济增长等因素

Blue Owl Capital spooked AI investors on Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that the firm, one of Oracle’s larger financing partners for major U.S. data centers, decided not to provide equity backing for a $10 billion data center Oracle is building in Michigan. This planned facility is part of Oracle’s collaboration with OpenAI under their Stargate AI infrastructure initiative. Blue Owl reversed course on concerns about less favorable lease and debt terms compared with prior deals. Moreover, Blue Owl is worried about potential delays from local politics.
<div class="lb-trans">蓝猫资本在周三让人工智能投资者感到不安，原因是《金融时报》报道该公司决定不为甲骨文在密歇根州建设的一个价值 100 亿美元的数据中心提供股权支持。该设施是甲骨文与 OpenAI 在其星际 AI 基础设施计划下的合作的一部分。蓝猫资本因担心与之前交易相比，租赁和债务条款不够有利而改变了决定。此外，蓝猫资本还担心地方政治可能导致的延误。
</div>Maybe, of most concern to Blue Owl, Oracle’s debt is increasing rapidly. For example, Oracle has over $127 billion in debt, of which about 20% matures within three years. Furthermore, over the past 12 months, Oracle reported negative free cash flow. Analysts do not expect it turn positive for at least two more years. As shown below, credit default swaps on Oracle have increased rapidly. For more on Oracle CDS, check out our Commentary from November.
<div class="lb-trans">也许，蓝猫资本最担心的是甲骨文的债务正在迅速增加。例如，甲骨文的债务超过 1270 亿美元，其中约 20% 将在三年内到期。此外，在过去的 12 个月中，甲骨文报告了负自由现金流。分析师预计至少在未来两年内不会转为正值。如下所示，甲骨文的信用违约掉期迅速上升。有关甲骨文 CDS 的更多信息，请查看我们 11 月的评论。
</div>Oracle disputed the implications of losing Blue Owl financing. They claim it has multiple funding sources, including Blackstone and Bank of America, which will allow it to move forward with the Michigan project. To wit, please see the Tweet of the Day. However, and of importance to the broader market, it further raises investor concerns about financing massive AI data center expansions. While the power grid has been a primary concern for investors, rapidly rising debt levels and the financing of large infrastructure projects may be a close second.
<div class="lb-trans">甲骨文对失去蓝猫资本融资的影响表示异议。他们声称拥有多个资金来源，包括黑石和美国银行，这将使其能够继续推进密歇根项目。请参见今天的推文。然而，这对更广泛的市场而言，进一步引发了投资者对融资大规模 AI 数据中心扩张的担忧。虽然电网一直是投资者的主要关注点，但迅速上升的债务水平和大型基础设施项目的融资可能是第二个重要问题。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-cds-1024x578.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-cds-1024x578.png"/>
<h3>What To Watch Today</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>今天关注的事项</h3>
</div>Earnings
<div class="lb-trans">财报
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-100-1024x116.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-100-1024x116.png"/>
Economy
<div class="lb-trans">经济
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-99-1024x299.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-99-1024x299.png"/>
<h3>Market Trading Update</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>市场交易更新</h3>
</div>Yesterday, we discussed the weekly technical backdrop, which suggests a “recalibration” in the overall market. I wanted to turn our attention to oil today.
<div class="lb-trans">昨天， 我们讨论了每周的技术背景，这表明整体市场正在进行_“重新校准”_。今天我想把注意力转向石油。
</div>As shown, oil prices have declined sharply this year amid persistent oversupply, falling from $80/bbl in January to below $60 today.
<div class="lb-trans">如图所示，石油价格在持续的供应过剩中急剧下降，从 1 月份的 80 美元/桶降至今天的 60 美元以下。
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-101.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-101.png"/>
Wholesale and retail fuel prices have dropped, hitting levels not seen since the pandemic, even as demand for holiday travel increases. As oversupply builds across major benchmarks, such pushes sellers to offload cargoes, weighing further on prices. Producers with weaker balance sheets, such as mid‑sized E&amp;P firms, are experiencing share price pressure tied to the market downturn. Furthermore, industry surveys show that both current and expected activity remains subdued with price expectations for 2026 below breakeven levels for many producers.
<div class="lb-trans">批发和零售燃料价格已经下降，达到了疫情以来未见的水平，即使假期旅行的需求在增加。随着主要基准的供应过剩加剧，这迫使卖家抛售货物，进一步压低价格。财务状况较弱的生产商，如中型 E&amp;P 公司，正面临与市场下滑相关的股价压力。此外，行业调查显示，目前和预期的活动仍然低迷，许多生产商对 2026 年的价格预期低于盈亏平衡水平。
</div>That isn’t a strong backdrop for a strong rally in energy prices. However, the big question for investors is whether they should build energy positions today, anticipating a future resurgence of demand. So, what could cause oil prices to rise in 2026? Some of the reasons are obvious, others are not.
<div class="lb-trans">这并不是一个强劲反弹能源价格的良好背景。然而，投资者面临的一个重大问题是，他们是否应该在今天建立能源头寸，以期待未来需求的复苏。那么，什么因素可能导致 2026 年油价上涨呢？一些原因显而易见，另一些则不然。
</div><blockquote>
1. A Reversal in OPEC+ Policy: If OPEC+ decides to cut production further or maintain existing cuts longer than expected, supply would tighten. With inventories already low in some regions, this would put immediate upward pressure on prices. If U.S. shale production also continues to slow, that would compound the impact.
2. A Weaker U.S. Dollar: Oil is priced in dollars globally. If the dollar weakens due to Federal Reserve rate cuts or U.S. fiscal imbalances, oil becomes cheaper in foreign currencies. This can boost global demand and push prices higher, even if supply remains constant.
3. Faster-Than-Expected Global Economic Growth: If global growth re-accelerates—especially in China, India, and Southeast Asia—oil demand could rise meaningfully. A synchronized rebound in industrial activity, freight movement, and consumer travel could tilt the supply-demand balance.
4 . A Resurgence in Transportation Demand: Despite the EV push, most of the global fleet remains fossil-fuel based. Any delay in EV penetration or resurgence in gasoline and diesel vehicle use could surprise to the upside on demand.
5. Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers: While data centers consume vast amounts of power, they don’t currently run on oil-based fuels. Most draw electricity from the grid, which is generated primarily from natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables. If data center buildouts continue to surge, this will lift electricity demand, but the spillover into oil markets would be minimal unless grid shortages force backup diesel generation. That’s plausible in regions with poor infrastructure or unstable grids.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"> 1. OPEC+ 政策的逆转： 如果 OPEC+ 决定进一步减产或比预期更长时间维持现有减产，供应将会收紧。由于某些地区的库存已经很低，这将对价格施加立即的上行压力。如果美国页岩油生产也继续放缓，这将加剧影响。

 2. 美元走弱： 石油在全球以美元定价。如果由于美联储降息或美国财政失衡导致美元走弱，石油在外币中变得更便宜。这可以提升全球需求并推高价格，即使供应保持不变。

 3. 全球经济增长快于预期： 如果全球增长重新加速——尤其是在中国、印度和东南亚——石油需求可能会显著上升。工业活动、货运和消费者旅行的同步反弹可能会倾斜供需平衡。

 4 . 运输需求的复苏： 尽管电动车的推动，大多数全球车队仍然以化石燃料为基础。电动车渗透的任何延迟或汽油和柴油车辆使用的复苏都可能对需求产生意外的上行影响。

 _5. 人工智能和数据中心： 虽然数据中心消耗大量电力，但它们目前并不依赖于基于石油的燃料。大多数从电网获取电力，而电力主要来自天然气、煤炭、核能和可再生能源。如果数据中心的建设继续激增，这将提升电力需求，但除非电网短缺迫使备用柴油发电，否则对石油市场的溢出影响将是微乎其微的。这在基础设施薄弱或电网不稳定的地区是合理的。
</div>If you assume that the risk of higher oil prices in 2026 is likely, how should you consider positioning your portfolio today? Crucially, this is not a “trade” but requires a longer‑term, selective positioning for an eventual reversal.
<div class="lb-trans">如果你认为 2026 年油价上涨的风险是可能的，你应该如何考虑今天的投资组合定位？至关重要的是，这不是一个_“交易”_，而是需要长期的、选择性的定位，以期待最终的反转。
</div><blockquote>
1. Prioritize Cash‑Flow Strong Producers: Large integrated oil majors with lower production costs, diversified assets, and strong cash flows are better positioned to withstand lower price environments. These firms tend to maintain dividends and buybacks even when crude oil prices trade lower, providing a cushion for shareholders.
2. Avoid Highly Leveraged E&amp;P Names: Smaller exploration and production companies often require oil prices above $60–$65 per barrel to fund growth and service debt. With forecasts clustering below those levels, those stocks carry a higher risk.
3. Use Sector ETFs for Broad Exposure: Energy sector ETFs provide diversified exposure to multiple names, reducing single‑company risk. These can serve as core holdings for investors seeking to capitalize on any rebound in commodity pricing or sector re-rating.
4. Dividend Yield Matters in Lower Price Environments: Energy stocks with strong dividend yields offer income even in flat price environments. Reinvesting dividends improves total return potential when prices are subdued.
5. Monitor Leading Indicators and Manage Risk Actively: Oil inventories, OPEC policy changes, rig counts, and global demand data should inform trade timing. Hedging strategies such as protective puts or covered calls help manage downside risks in a volatile market.
6. Time Horizons Must Reflect Weak Price Trends: Given forecasts for lower prices, short‑term traders should use dollar‑cost averaging to enter positions gradually and avoid single‑point market timing. Long‑term holders should focus on structural factors such as production discipline, capital spending discipline, and dividend sustainability.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans">1. 优先考虑现金流强劲的生产商：大型综合性石油公司具有较低的生产成本、多元化的资产和强劲的现金流，更能抵御低价环境。这些公司往往在原油价格下跌时仍能维持分红和回购，为股东提供缓冲。
2. 避免高杠杆的勘探与生产公司：较小的勘探和生产公司通常需要油价在每桶 60-65 美元以上才能资助增长和偿还债务。由于预测集中在这些水平以下，这些股票的风险较高。
3. 使用行业 ETF 以获得广泛的曝光：能源行业 ETF 提供对多个公司的多元化投资，降低单一公司风险。这些可以作为寻求利用商品价格反弹或行业重新评级的投资者的核心持仓。
4. 在低价环境中，股息收益率至关重要：具有强劲股息收益率的能源股票即使在价格平稳的环境中也能提供收入。再投资股息在价格低迷时提高总回报潜力。
5. 监测领先指标并积极管理风险：石油库存、OPEC 政策变化、钻井数量和全球需求数据应指导交易时机。保护性期权或备兑看涨期权等对冲策略有助于在波动市场中管理下行风险。
6. 时间跨度必须反映疲软的价格趋势：鉴于对低价的预测，短期交易者应采用定投策略逐步进入头寸，避免单点市场时机把握。长期持有者应关注生产纪律、资本支出纪律和股息可持续性等结构性因素。
</div>The energy sector remains relevant for diversified portfolios, but the market environment is currently bearish on oil prices through 2026. Positioning should favor quality, cash flow, balance sheet strength, and diversified exposure, rather than speculative bets. Even in weak price cycles, disciplined energy companies generate shareholder returns through dividends and operational efficiencies.
<div class="lb-trans">能源行业在多元化投资组合中仍然相关，但 市场环境目前对油价持悲观态度，预计持续到 2026 年。投资应偏向于 质量、现金流、资产负债表强度和多元化曝光，而非投机性押注。即使在价格疲软的周期中，纪律严明的能源公司也能通过分红和运营效率为股东创造回报。
</div>Trade accordingly.
<div class="lb-trans">相应交易。
</div><h3>CPI Was Lower Than Expected</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>CPI 低于预期</h3>
</div>The BLS released a blended October-November CPI report to cover the period of the government shutdown. CPI was well below the 3.1% expectation at 2.7%. Core CPI was also 0.4 percentage points below consensus at 2.6%. Rent prices, i.e., shelter costs, which account for 40% of CPI, were 1.6% annualized, less than half the 3.8% rate in the three months prior. While the inflation data were undoubtedly excellent news, the market will likely doubt them and raise questions about specific adjustments the BLS made to account for the October data void.
<div class="lb-trans">美国劳工部发布了涵盖政府停摆期间的 10 月-11 月 CPI 报告。CPI 为 2.7%，远低于 3.1% 的预期。核心 CPI 也比市场共识低 0.4 个百分点，达到 2.6%。租金价格，即住房成本，占 CPI 的 40%，年化增长为 1.6%，不到前三个月 3.8% 增速的一半。尽管通胀数据无疑是个好消息，但市场可能会对此表示怀疑，并对劳工部为弥补 10 月数据空白所做的具体调整提出质疑。
</div>Evidence of market doubt was evident in the muted bond market reaction to the news. The graph below, courtesy of FinViz, shows the price of ten-year Treasury note futures. At 8:30 ET, when the data was released, the price spiked by about 50 cents, but after about half an hour, it returned to its pre-release level. Similarly, Fed Funds futures barely budged, indicating that the odds of a rate cut at the January 28th meeting were not affected by the CPI release. Bond investors may dismiss the CPI report but place heavy emphasis on the following report. If that, too, confirms the recent slowdown in inflation, bonds could exhibit a much larger rally. Stay tuned!
<div class="lb-trans">市场怀疑的证据在债券市场对这一消息的反应平淡中显而易见。下图由 FinViz 提供，显示了十年期国债期货的价格。在东部时间 8:30，数据发布时，价格上涨了约 50 美分，但半小时后又回到了发布前的水平。同样，联邦基金期货几乎没有波动，表明 CPI 发布并未影响 1 月 28 日会议上降息的可能性。债券投资者可能会忽视 CPI 报告，但会对下一份报告给予高度重视。如果那份报告也确认近期通胀放缓，债券可能会出现更大幅度的反弹。请继续关注！
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ten-year-futures-1024x316.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ten-year-futures-1024x316.png"/>
<h3>Tweet of the Day</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>今日推文</h3>
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-blue-owl.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/oracle-blue-owl.png"/>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>More By This Author:
<div class="lb-trans">更多来自此作者的文章：
</div>Fannie And Freddie Add Billions To The Bond Market
<div class="lb-trans">房利美和房地美为债券市场增加数十亿
</div>Kevin Warsh Or Kevin Hassett?
<div class="lb-trans">凯文·沃什还是凯文·哈塞特？
</div>Warsh Is In The Race: Fed Chair Odds In Flux
<div class="lb-trans">沃什参与竞选：美联储主席的赔率变动
</div>

Blue Owl Capital 搅动了人工智能的叙事