<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_thomas-coker-m8fyycgwuma-unsplash.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_thomas-coker-m8fyycgwuma-unsplash.webp"/></p>
<p><em>照片由 Thomas Coker 提供，来源于 Unsplash</em></p>
<p>我们在 11 月 26 日讨论了新西兰元（NZDUSD），提到并强调了在 ABC 修正下跌的 C 波中形成的底部结构，属于结束对角线/楔形模式。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_nzdusd-nov-26-2025-4h.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_nzdusd-nov-26-2025-4h.webp"/></p>
<p>2025 年 11 月 26 日的 NZDUSD 4 小时图</p>
<p>如您所见，今天新西兰元在新西兰央行 11 月降息后表现良好，正在反弹和恢复，预测显示更广泛的委员会认为宽松周期的最低点已经到达。因此，新西兰元目前没有降息的空间。请注意，由于出现了强劲的反弹，它现在可能在楔形模式后形成了 C 波的底部，我们将其视为新五波牛市周期的第一波。因此，似乎在五波牛市周期的第三波中将会有更多的上涨，但理想情况下是在当前的第二波修正回调后，支撑位在 0.5750 - 0.5700。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_4h%20nzdusd%20dec%2019%202025.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_4h%20nzdusd%20dec%2019%202025.webp"/></p>
<p>2025 年 11 月 26 日的 NZDUSD 4 小时图</p>
<p>新西兰元在 2025 年末和 2026 年初可能会有更多上涨的原因是由于股市的牛市，仍然有上涨空间。请注意，自 11 月低点以来，标准普尔 500 指数与 NZD/USD（新西兰元）之间保持了紧密的正相关关系。因此，如果标准普尔 500 指数准备恢复其牛市趋势，新西兰元也可能轻松跟随。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_kiwivssp500.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_kiwivssp500.webp"/></p>
<p>NZDUSD 与 SP500</p>
<hr/>
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<p>标准普尔 500 指数在美联储后展望新上涨；就业数据为多头提供动力</p>

<p>NZD/USD（新西兰元/美元）在经历了一次修正后，预计将会有更多的上涨，形成了一个楔形底部。新西兰储备银行的降息已结束，暗示不会进一步放松政策。新西兰元进入了一个新的牛市周期，潜在的收益与股市的上涨相关，特别是标准普尔 500 指数。支撑位在 0.5750 - 0.5700，预计在 2025 年底和 2026 年初将有更多的上涨</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_thomas-coker-m8fyycgwuma-unsplash.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_thomas-coker-m8fyycgwuma-unsplash.webp"/></p>
<p><em>Photo by Thomas Coker on Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片由 Thomas Coker 提供，来源于 Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>We talked about the Kiwi(NZDUSD) on November 26, where we mentioned and highlighted a bottom formation within an ending diagonal / wedge pattern for wave C of an ABC corrective decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们在 11 月 26 日讨论了新西兰元（NZDUSD），提到并强调了在 ABC 修正下跌的 C 波中形成的底部结构，属于结束对角线/楔形模式。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_nzdusd-nov-26-2025-4h.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_nzdusd-nov-26-2025-4h.webp"/></p>
<p>NZDUSD 4H Chart From November 26</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 11 月 26 日的 NZDUSD 4 小时图</p>
</div><p>As you can see today, Kiwi is nicely bouncing and recovering after RBNZ cut interest rates in November, and forecasts suggest the broader committee believes the nadir has been hit for the easing cycle. So the Kiwi is coming up as no room for cuts, for now. Notice it can be now bottom after the wedge pattern into wave C, due to an impulsive recovery, which we see it as a wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle. So seems like more upside is coming within wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle, but ideally after the current corrective setback in wave 2 with supports at 0.5750 - 0.5700.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如您所见，今天新西兰元在新西兰央行 11 月降息后表现良好，正在反弹和恢复，预测显示更广泛的委员会认为宽松周期的最低点已经到达。因此，新西兰元目前没有降息的空间。请注意，由于出现了强劲的反弹，它现在可能在楔形模式后形成了 C 波的底部，我们将其视为新五波牛市周期的第一波。因此，似乎在五波牛市周期的第三波中将会有更多的上涨，但理想情况下是在当前的第二波修正回调后，支撑位在 0.5750 - 0.5700。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_4h%20nzdusd%20dec%2019%202025.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_4h%20nzdusd%20dec%2019%202025.webp"/></p>
<p>NZDUSD 4H Chart From November 26</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 11 月 26 日的 NZDUSD 4 小时图</p>
</div><p>The reason Kiwi could see more upside into late 2025 and early 2026 is due to a bullish stock market, which still has room for gains. Notice that the S&amp;P 500 and NZD/USD (Kiwi) have been in a tight positive correlation since the November lows. Therefore, if the S&amp;P 500 is set to resume its bullish trend, the Kiwi could easily follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新西兰元在 2025 年末和 2026 年初可能会有更多上涨的原因是由于股市的牛市，仍然有上涨空间。请注意，自 11 月低点以来，标准普尔 500 指数与 NZD/USD（新西兰元）之间保持了紧密的正相关关系。因此，如果标准普尔 500 指数准备恢复其牛市趋势，新西兰元也可能轻松跟随。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_kiwivssp500.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gregor-horvat/user_content/ckimages/orig_kiwivssp500.webp"/></p>
<p>NZDUSD vs. SP500</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NZDUSD 与 SP500</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>DAX 反弹信号显示关键支撑位持稳后潜在上涨</p>
</div><p>Visa: Completing Correction, Upside Potential Ahead</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Visa：修正完成，前景向上</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 Eyes Fresh Upside After Fed; Jobs Data Adds Fuel To Bulls</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数在美联储后展望新上涨；就业数据为多头提供动力</p>
</div>

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