<p>比特币 [BTC] 继续在其 2025 年开盘水平约为 93,576 美元下方交易，而随着年末的逐渐临近，加密货币市场整体动能减缓。</p>
<p>随着新年的临近，分析师们正在评估比特币可能延续其疲软表现的可能性，价格可能进一步下跌而不是反弹。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币寒冬仍在继续</strong></h2>
<p>富达投资的全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 表示，2026 年可能是比特币的 “休整年”。</p>
<p>他的评估基于比特币历史上的四年减半周期。根据 Timmer 的说法，如果这一周期继续按照过去的模式发展，明年该资产可能会回落至 65,000 至 75,000 美元的支撑区间。</p>
<p>他提到的四年减半周期反映了在比特币矿工奖励减少后，持续的上涨阶段，约为 145 个月。</p>
<p>历史上，这一阶段通常会伴随更广泛的市场下跌，长期价格图表对此进行了说明。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8YOLN6WoAEa7JI.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8YOLN6WoAEa7JI.png"/></p>
<p>来源：富达投资</p>
<p>Timmer 指出，比特币在 10 月份创下的 126,000 美元历史最高价与这一历史框架 “在价格和时间上完全一致”。</p>
<p>富达投资通过其 FBTC 美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）控制着美国市场第二大比特币 ETF 供应。</p>
<p>根据 CoinGlass 的数据，FBTC 持有价值 167.3 亿美元的比特币，仅次于黑石的 IBIT ETF，后者持有 655.7 亿美元。</p>
<p>如果看跌前景成立，这可能意味着这一群体的比特币投资者将进行大量抛售。然而，FBTC 投资者本周表现出看涨行为，记录了 179 BTC 的净流入，约合 1570 万美元。</p>
<h2><strong>市场需求微弱</strong></h2>
<p>更广泛的市场尚未见到持续的需求，而是经历了更多的重新配置，而非真正能够推动价格上涨的积累。</p>
<p>这种动态有助于解释为什么比特币在 85,000 美元和 93,000 美元之间保持区间震荡。此说明基于 Glassnode 的分析，针对比特币 “鲨鱼” 钱包（持有 100 到 1,000 BTC 的地址）增加持有量 27 万 BTC 的报告。</p>
<p>Glassnode 随后澄清，这一活动并不反映真实的积累。相反，它源于持有超过 100,000 BTC 的大型比特币实体进行内部钱包重新配置。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8bm9kGWoAEHg7v-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8bm9kGWoAEHg7v-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>Glassnode 的一位高级分析师解释道：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“钱包重新配置发生在大型实体在地址之间拆分或合并余额，以管理保管、风险或会计，在不改变真实所有权的情况下，在不同的群体规模之间转移币。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>虽然大型实体的供应大约转移了 30 万 BTC，但约 27 万 BTC 出现在鲨鱼钱包中。</p>
<p>然而，数据最终显示出大约 3 万 BTC 的净负余额，表明这些投资者可能是出售比特币而非积累。</p>
<h2><strong>监管和全球背景</strong></h2>
<p>随着年末的临近，投资者的谨慎情绪加剧，受到主要经济体一系列监管和宏观经济发展的驱动。</p>
<p>在美国，政策前景在联邦公开市场委员会降息后变得更加温和。在欧洲也观察到了类似的举措。然而，与日本债券收益率上升相关的资本外流对比特币情绪造成了压力。</p>
<p>这些政策变化和不确定性使市场在是否部署资本或保持观望之间犹豫不决。</p>
<p>加密超级应用 NoOnes 的首席执行官 Ray Youssef 在一封电子邮件中提供了当前环境的额外背景。他表示，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“主要主权银行发出的不同信号、全球政策协调不均以及对 2026 年利率和流动性路径的混合指引促使资本在年末采取观望态度。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>与此同时，Ethereum France 的主席 Jerome de Tychey 告诉 AMBCrypto，他预计加密市场将越来越与传统金融市场对齐。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“随着 ETF 和机构参与的增长，加密特定的修正变得不太可能，但与全球市场的相关性将增加。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这种转变可能会降低加密作为纯通胀对冲工具的地位。不过，支持者认为，基于区块链的金融基础设施的持续采用仍然是该行业的积极长期发展。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>富达的全球宏观总监指出，比特币落后于其传统的四年周期，称 2026 年可能是一个 “休整年” 或寒冬期。</em></li>
<li><em>比特币需求仍然疲软，市场活动更多由内部轮换驱动，而非真正的新购买。</em></li>
</ul>

富达国民信息服务

<p>分析师，包括富达投资的 Jurrien Timmer，建议 2026 年可能是比特币的 “平淡年”，价格可能在 65,000 美元到 75,000 美元之间。这个预测基于比特币历史上的四年减半周期。尽管 FBTC 投资者近期表现出看涨行为，但整体市场需求仍然低迷，更多的是内部钱包的重新调整，而非真正的积累。监管和宏观经济因素使投资者保持谨慎，预计加密货币与传统金融市场之间的相关性将增加</p>

<p>Bitcoin [BTC] continues to trade below its 2025 opening level of approximately $93,576, while overall momentum across the cryptocurrency market has slowed as the year gradually draws to a close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 继续在其 2025 年开盘水平约为 93,576 美元下方交易，而随着年末的逐渐临近，加密货币市场整体动能减缓。</p>
</div><p>As the new year approaches, analysts are weighing the likelihood that Bitcoin may extend its sluggish performance, with the possibility that prices could decline further rather than recover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着新年的临近，分析师们正在评估比特币可能延续其疲软表现的可能性，价格可能进一步下跌而不是反弹。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin winter still in play</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币寒冬仍在继续</strong></h2>
</div><p>Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, one of the largest mutual fund firms in the United States, has suggested that 2026 could represent an “off year” for Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富达投资的全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 表示，2026 年可能是比特币的 “休整年”。</p>
</div><p>His assessment is based on BTC’s historical four-year halving cycle. According to Timmer, the asset could retreat to a support range between $65,000 and $75,000 next year if the cycle continues to play out as it has in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的评估基于比特币历史上的四年减半周期。根据 Timmer 的说法，如果这一周期继续按照过去的模式发展，明年该资产可能会回落至 65,000 至 75,000 美元的支撑区间。</p>
</div><p>The four-year halving cycle he referenced reflects a prolonged rally phase, roughly 145 months in this case, after a reduction in Bitcoin miners’ rewards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他提到的四年减半周期反映了在比特币矿工奖励减少后，持续的上涨阶段，约为 145 个月。</p>
</div><p>Historically, this phase has often been followed by a broader market decline, as illustrated in long-term price charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，这一阶段通常会伴随更广泛的市场下跌，长期价格图表对此进行了说明。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8YOLN6WoAEa7JI.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8YOLN6WoAEa7JI.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Fidelity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：富达投资</p>
</div><p>Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 in October aligned “perfectly in both price and time” with this historical framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Timmer 指出，比特币在 10 月份创下的 126,000 美元历史最高价与这一历史框架 “在价格和时间上完全一致”。</p>
</div><p>Fidelity Investments, through its FBTC U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), controls the second-largest Bitcoin ETF supply in the U.S. market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富达投资通过其 FBTC 美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）控制着美国市场第二大比特币 ETF 供应。</p>
</div><p>FBTC holds Bitcoin valued at $16.73 billion, according to CoinGlass data, trailing only BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which holds $65.57 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CoinGlass 的数据，FBTC 持有价值 167.3 亿美元的比特币，仅次于黑石的 IBIT ETF，后者持有 655.7 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>If the bearish outlook holds, it could imply significant sell-offs from this cohort of Bitcoin investors. However, FBTC investors have so far shown bullish behavior this week, recording a net inflow of 179 BTC, equivalent to roughly $15.7 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果看跌前景成立，这可能意味着这一群体的比特币投资者将进行大量抛售。然而，FBTC 投资者本周表现出看涨行为，记录了 179 BTC 的净流入，约合 1570 万美元。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Minimal demand in the market</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市场需求微弱</strong></h2>
</div><p>The broader market has yet to witness sustained demand and has instead experienced more reshuffling than genuine accumulation capable of driving prices higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的市场尚未见到持续的需求，而是经历了更多的重新配置，而非真正能够推动价格上涨的积累。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin has remained range-bound between $85,000 and $93,000. The clarification follows a Glassnode analysis addressing reports that Bitcoin “sharks”, wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, had increased their holdings by 270,000 BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态有助于解释为什么比特币在 85,000 美元和 93,000 美元之间保持区间震荡。此说明基于 Glassnode 的分析，针对比特币 “鲨鱼” 钱包（持有 100 到 1,000 BTC 的地址）增加持有量 27 万 BTC 的报告。</p>
</div><p>Glassnode later clarified that the activity did not reflect true accumulation. Instead, it stemmed from large Bitcoin entities, those holding more than 100,000 BTC, undergoing internal wallet reshuffling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glassnode 随后澄清，这一活动并不反映真实的积累。相反，它源于持有超过 100,000 BTC 的大型比特币实体进行内部钱包重新配置。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8bm9kGWoAEHg7v-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8bm9kGWoAEHg7v-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>A senior analyst at Glassnode explained:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glassnode 的一位高级分析师解释道：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Wallet reshuffling occurs when large entities split or merge balances across addresses to manage custody, risk, or accounting, shifting coins between cohort size brackets without changing true ownership.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“钱包重新配置发生在大型实体在地址之间拆分或合并余额，以管理保管、风险或会计，在不改变真实所有权的情况下，在不同的群体规模之间转移币。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>While large-entity supply shifted by roughly 300,000 BTC, about 270,000 BTC appeared in shark wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然大型实体的供应大约转移了 30 万 BTC，但约 27 万 BTC 出现在鲨鱼钱包中。</p>
</div><p>However, the data ultimately showed a net negative balance of around 30,000 BTC, suggesting that these investors likely sold Bitcoin rather than accumulated it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，数据最终显示出大约 3 万 BTC 的净负余额，表明这些投资者可能是出售比特币而非积累。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Regulatory and global context</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>监管和全球背景</strong></h2>
</div><p>Investor caution has intensified as the year winds down, driven by a series of regulatory and macroeconomic developments across major economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着年末的临近，投资者的谨慎情绪加剧，受到主要经济体一系列监管和宏观经济发展的驱动。</p>
</div><p>In the United States, the policy outlook has turned more dovish following Federal Open Market Committee rate cuts. Similar moves have been observed in Europe. However, capital outflows linked to rising Japanese bond yields have weighed on Bitcoin sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，政策前景在联邦公开市场委员会降息后变得更加温和。在欧洲也观察到了类似的举措。然而，与日本债券收益率上升相关的资本外流对比特币情绪造成了压力。</p>
</div><p>These policy shifts and uncertainties have left markets undecided on whether to deploy capital or remain on the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些政策变化和不确定性使市场在是否部署资本或保持观望之间犹豫不决。</p>
</div><p>Ray Youssef, CEO of the crypto super app NoOnes, provided additional context on the current environment in an email. He said,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密超级应用 NoOnes 的首席执行官 Ray Youssef 在一封电子邮件中提供了当前环境的额外背景。他表示，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Divergent signals from major sovereign banks, uneven global policy coordination, and mixed guidance on 2026 rate and liquidity pathways have prompted capital to adopt a wait-and-see approach as the year ends.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“主要主权银行发出的不同信号、全球政策协调不均以及对 2026 年利率和流动性路径的混合指引促使资本在年末采取观望态度。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Jerome de Tychey, President of Ethereum France, told AMBCrypto that he expects crypto markets to increasingly align with traditional financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Ethereum France 的主席 Jerome de Tychey 告诉 AMBCrypto，他预计加密市场将越来越与传统金融市场对齐。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“With ETFs and institutional participation growing, crypto-specific corrections are less probable, but correlation with global markets will increase.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“随着 ETF 和机构参与的增长，加密特定的修正变得不太可能，但与全球市场的相关性将增加。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>That shift may reduce crypto’s standing as a pure inflation hedge. Still, proponents argue that the continued adoption of blockchain-based financial infrastructure remains a positive long-term development for the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种转变可能会降低加密作为纯通胀对冲工具的地位。不过，支持者认为，基于区块链的金融基础设施的持续采用仍然是该行业的积极长期发展。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro has pointed to Bitcoin trailing its traditional four-year cycle, describing 2026 as a potential “off year” or winter period.</em></li>
<li><em>Bitcoin demand remains weak, with market activity driven more by internal rotations than by genuine new purchases.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>富达的全球宏观总监指出，比特币落后于其传统的四年周期，称 2026 年可能是一个 “休整年” 或寒冬期。</em></li>
<li><em>比特币需求仍然疲软，市场活动更多由内部轮换驱动，而非真正的新购买。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币——2026 年会是比特币价格的 “低迷年” 吗？