<p>一位在去年以 0.26 美元的价格积累了 500 万枚 Curve DAO [CRV] 代币的巨鲸——成本基础约为 130 万美元——最终选择了放弃，Arkham 的链上数据显示。</p>
<p>这位投资者在 CRV 价格急剧上涨至 1.30 美元时持有，未实现利润峰值接近 520 万美元，但在上涨过程中从未出售过一枚代币。</p>
<p>本周，这位巨鲸以约 0.34 美元的价格将超过 400 万枚 CRV 转移至币安，仅实现约 40 万美元的利润——与他之前坐拥的数百万美元收益形成了戏剧性的反转。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1894" height="1384" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>这一举动不仅标志着个体的放弃，也反映了 CRV 市场的更深层次的结构性弱点。</p>
<h2><strong>巨鲸在高位持有但在弱势中出售</strong></h2>
<p>根据 Arkham 分析师的说法，转账历史显示：</p>
<ul>
<li>500 万 CRV 在约 0.26 美元时积累</li>
<li>未实现的峰值价值：约 650 万美元</li>
<li>本周出售后的实际实现利润：约 40 万美元</li>
</ul>
<p>这位巨鲸并没有在十月的上涨中出售，而是在流动性稀薄和动能下降时抛售，这种行为典型于困境退出，而非战略性分配。</p>
<h2><strong>Curve DAO 价格结构确认放弃叙事</strong></h2>
<p>CRV 的 12 小时图表显示，自 11 月初以来，该代币一直处于稳定的下行趋势中。每一次短暂的反弹都形成了更低的高点，进一步强化了整体的看跌结构。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2230" height="1418" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>两个指标反映出这种弱势：</p>
<ul>
<li>年初至今移动平均倍数为-0.84，表明 CRV 的交易价格显著低于其年度趋势基线。</li>
<li>CMF [20] 为-0.18，显示持续的资金流出和疲弱的买方压力。</li>
</ul>
<p>目前价格徘徊在 0.34–0.35 美元之间，这位巨鲸直接在这一下降区间的下限出售。</p>
<h2><strong>这一放弃对 Curve 市场周期的启示</strong></h2>
<p>在周期低点的巨鲸放弃通常被解读为：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>情绪放弃信号</strong>——大持有者在经历数月未实现损失后退出</li>
<li><strong>流动性压力指标</strong>——愿意积累的强势持有者减少</li>
<li><strong>市场周期拐点风险</strong>——此类阶段通常预示着更深的下行或偶尔的底部形成</li>
</ul>
<p>就 CRV 而言，数据表明宏观弱势而非反转，考虑到负流入、下降趋势结构和流动性疲软的组合。</p>
<h2><strong>接下来要关注的内容</strong></h2>
<p>对于 CRV 而言，未来有三个关键水平值得关注：</p>
<ul>
<li>0.33 美元——即时支撑</li>
<li>0.38–0.40 美元——短期阻力</li>
<li>0.45 美元——需要突破的第一个水平，以消除下行趋势</li>
</ul>
<p>在买方成交量增加之前，CRV 仍然容易受到进一步下行压力的影响。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<p>一位巨鲸在桌面上留下数百万未实现利润，显然是 CRV 更广泛市场结构的情绪红旗。</p>
<p>价格指标确认持续的弱势，流动性流动和趋势结构仍然指向下行。</p>
<hr/>

<p>一位持有 500 万 CRV 代币的 Curve DAO 大户以 0.34 美元的价格抛售，获得了 40 万美元的利润，而不是 520 万美元的未实现收益。这表明 CRV 市场存在结构性弱点，持续下行趋势和流动性压力。需要关注的关键水平：0.33 美元支撑位，0.38-0.40 美元阻力位，0.45 美元突破位。CRV 仍然面临下行压力的脆弱性</p>

<p>A Curve DAO [CRV] whale who accumulated 5 million tokens at $0.26 last year — roughly $1.3 million in cost basis — has finally capitulated, on-chain data from Arkham shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位在去年以 0.26 美元的价格积累了 500 万枚 Curve DAO [CRV] 代币的巨鲸——成本基础约为 130 万美元——最终选择了放弃，Arkham 的链上数据显示。</p>
</div><p>The investor held through CRV’s sharp rally to $1.30, where unrealized profit peaked near $5.2 million, but never sold a single token during the uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位投资者在 CRV 价格急剧上涨至 1.30 美元时持有，未实现利润峰值接近 520 万美元，但在上涨过程中从未出售过一枚代币。</p>
</div><p>This week, the whale sent more than 4 million CRV to Binance at roughly $0.34, realizing only ~$400,000 in profit — a dramatic reversal from the multi-million-dollar gain he previously sat on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，这位巨鲸以约 0.34 美元的价格将超过 400 万枚 CRV 转移至币安，仅实现约 40 万美元的利润——与他之前坐拥的数百万美元收益形成了戏剧性的反转。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>The move signals not just individual capitulation, but deeper structural weakness across CRV markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动不仅标志着个体的放弃，也反映了 CRV 市场的更深层次的结构性弱点。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Whale held through the top but sold into weakness</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>巨鲸在高位持有但在弱势中出售</strong></h2>
</div><p>According to Arkham analyst, the transfer history shows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Arkham 分析师的说法，转账历史显示：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>5M CRV accumulated around $0.26</li>
<li>Unrealized peak value: ~$6.5M</li>
<li>Actual realized profit after this week’s sale: ~$400K</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>500 万 CRV 在约 0.26 美元时积累</li>
<li>未实现的峰值价值：约 650 万美元</li>
<li>本周出售后的实际实现利润：约 40 万美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Instead of selling during the October run-up, the whale offloaded into thin liquidity and declining momentum, a behavior typical of distressed exits rather than strategic distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位巨鲸并没有在十月的上涨中出售，而是在流动性稀薄和动能下降时抛售，这种行为典型于困境退出，而非战略性分配。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Curve DAO price structure confirms the capitulation narrative</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Curve DAO 价格结构确认放弃叙事</strong></h2>
</div><p>CRV’s 12-hour chart shows the token locked in a steady downtrend since early November. Every short-lived bounce has formed lower highs, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CRV 的 12 小时图表显示，自 11 月初以来，该代币一直处于稳定的下行趋势中。每一次短暂的反弹都形成了更低的高点，进一步强化了整体的看跌结构。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Two indicators echo the weakness:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两个指标反映出这种弱势：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The YTD Moving Average Multiple stands at -0.84, indicating that CRV is trading significantly below its yearly trend baseline.</li>
<li>CMF [20] prints -0.18, signaling persistent outflows and weak buy-side pressure.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>年初至今移动平均倍数为-0.84，表明 CRV 的交易价格显著低于其年度趋势基线。</li>
<li>CMF [20] 为-0.18，显示持续的资金流出和疲弱的买方压力。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>With price now hovering around $0.34–$0.35, the whale sold directly into the lower bound of this declining range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前价格徘徊在 0.34–0.35 美元之间，这位巨鲸直接在这一下降区间的下限出售。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What this capitulation tells us about Curve’s market cycle</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>这一放弃对 Curve 市场周期的启示</strong></h2>
</div><p>Whale capitulation at cycle lows is often interpreted as a:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周期低点的巨鲸放弃通常被解读为：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Sentiment capitulation signal</strong>— large holders exiting after months of unrealized loss</li>
<li><strong>Liquidity stress indicator</strong> — fewer strong hands willing to accumulate</li>
<li><strong>Market-cycle inflection risk</strong> — phases like this precede either deeper downside or, occasionally, bottom formation</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>情绪放弃信号</strong>——大持有者在经历数月未实现损失后退出</li>
<li><strong>流动性压力指标</strong>——愿意积累的强势持有者减少</li>
<li><strong>市场周期拐点风险</strong>——此类阶段通常预示着更深的下行或偶尔的底部形成</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In CRV’s case, the data suggests macro weakness rather than a reversal, given the combination of negative inflows, declining trend structure, and muted liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就 CRV 而言，数据表明宏观弱势而非反转，考虑到负流入、下降趋势结构和流动性疲软的组合。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What to watch next</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>接下来要关注的内容</strong></h2>
</div><p>Three key levels matter for CRV going forward:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 CRV 而言，未来有三个关键水平值得关注：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>$0.33 — immediate support</li>
<li>$0.38–$0.40 — short-term resistance</li>
<li>$0.45 — first break level needed to negate the downtrend</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>0.33 美元——即时支撑</li>
<li>0.38–0.40 美元——短期阻力</li>
<li>0.45 美元——需要突破的第一个水平，以消除下行趋势</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Until buy-side volume increases, CRV remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在买方成交量增加之前，CRV 仍然容易受到进一步下行压力的影响。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><p>A whale leaving millions in unrealized profits on the table is a clear sentiment red flag for CRV’s broader market structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位巨鲸在桌面上留下数百万未实现利润，显然是 CRV 更广泛市场结构的情绪红旗。</p>
</div><p>Price indicators confirm persistent weakness, with liquidity flows and trend structure still pointing downward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格指标确认持续的弱势，流动性流动和趋势结构仍然指向下行。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Curve DAO 的大户曾拥有 520 万美元的未实现利润——随后亏损至 40 万美元