<p>计划在明年购买新电脑或智能手机的消费者可能面临更高的价格，原因越来越明显：由于人工智能需求推动的内存成本飙升。</p>
<p>美光科技最新的财务结果提供了一个窗口，展示了人工智能热潮如何重塑全球内存市场，并对消费电子产品产生连锁反应。</p>
<p>这家美国内存芯片制造商在其财政第一季度发布了创纪录的收入和营业收入，表明对内存设备的需求正在增加，而这些设备是人工智能系统所需的。</p>
<p>尽管美光的投资者对其业绩表示欢呼，但对内存芯片的激增需求正在给设备制造商和最终消费者带来成本压力。</p>
<p><strong>人工智能需求正在吸收内存供应</strong></p>
<p>美光报告称，财政第一季度收入为 136 亿美元，同比增长 57%，并预计截至 2 月份的当前季度销售额为 187 亿美元。</p>
<p>这一预测大幅超出华尔街的预期，反映出内存芯片价格急剧上涨。</p>
<p>这一激增是由人工智能系统推动的，这些系统需要大量专用内存，特别是高带宽内存。</p>
<p>随着人工智能数据中心的快速扩张，它们正在吸收全球内存供应的越来越大份额。</p>
<p>美光高管在财报电话会议上承认，需求已经超过了行业能够提供的水平。</p>
<p>该公司表示，某些产品 “已经售罄”，并预计整体供应在可预见的未来将 “显著短缺于需求”。</p>
<p>美光本月早些时候宣布将退出消费内存业务，专注于用于人工智能数据中心的高带宽内存芯片。</p>
<p>这种不平衡在市场定价中已经显而易见。</p>
<p>根据 Trendforce 的数据，常用的动态随机存取内存模块的现货价格在过去六个月中上涨了超过 60%，预计下个季度将接近 500 美元——几乎是去年价格的两倍。</p>
<p><strong>快速提升生产能力的能力有限</strong></p>
<p>理论上，更高的价格应该鼓励制造商扩大产能。</p>
<p>但实际上，内存制造厂的建设需要数年时间。</p>
<p>美光计划在明年初在纽约州北部开工建设一座新工厂，但该设施的生产预计要到 2030 年才能开始。</p>
<p>该公司正在其他地方加大支出，计划在本财政年度创纪录地投入 200 亿美元的资本支出，约为过去五年平均年度支出的两倍。</p>
<p>即便如此，美光仍然警告称，这一投资水平仍将无法满足对人工智能相关内存的需求。</p>
<p>随着供应增长受限，更高的内存成本正在电子供应链中逐渐嵌入。</p>
<p>每个中央处理器——PC、智能手机、平板电脑、游戏机和其他设备的核心——都需要内存才能正常工作，这使得制造商很难避免这些压力。</p>
<p><strong>消费者和设备制造商感受到压力</strong></p>
<p>PC 和智能手机制造商已经开始警告投资者有关影响。</p>
<p>戴尔首席运营官杰夫·克拉克在上个月的财报电话会议上表示，公司将努力减少组件成本上升的影响，但承认 “所有产品的成本基础都在上升”。</p>
<p>《商业内幕》报道，戴尔正在考虑提高其商业产品的价格。</p>
<p>惠普警告称，更高的内存价格可能会将运营利润推向其指导范围的下限。</p>
<p>这些成本中的一些可能会转嫁给消费者。</p>
<p>Counterpoint Research 最近下调了对明年全球智能手机出货量的预测，现在预计将下降 2.1%，而不是温和增长。</p>
<p>这一时机对具有人工智能功能的高端智能手机尤其具有挑战性，因为它们需要更多的系统内存。</p>
<p>影响不仅限于手机和 PC。</p>
<p>任天堂的股票因对其下一代 Switch 游戏机的内存成本的担忧而大幅下跌。</p>
<p>分析师估计，额外的每单位 40 美元的内存费用可能会显著削弱公司的利润，增加零售价格上涨的可能性。</p>
<p><strong>结构性转变，而非短期激增</strong></p>
<p>美光的结果强调这不是暂时的供应故障。</p>
<p>该公司估计，高带宽内存的总可寻址市场可能以 40% 的复合年增长率增长，并在三年内达到 1000 亿美元。</p>
<p>对于消费者来说，这意味着只要人工智能投资保持强劲，电子产品的价格可能会持续上涨，而供应难以跟上。</p>

美光科技

<p>消费者可能会面临明年个人电脑和智能手机价格上涨的情况，这主要是由于人工智能需求推动的内存成本飙升。美光科技的财务结果突显了人工智能热潮对全球内存市场的影响，需求超过供应。内存价格上涨，影响了设备制造商和消费者。美光计划进行重大资本支出，但警告称供应限制仍将持续。这一结构性变化表明，随着人工智能投资保持强劲，电子产品价格可能会持续走高</p>

<p>Consumers planning to buy a new PC or smartphone next year may face higher prices, and the reason is increasingly clear: soaring memory costs driven by artificial intelligence demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>计划在明年购买新电脑或智能手机的消费者可能面临更高的价格，原因越来越明显：由于人工智能需求推动的内存成本飙升。</p>
</div><p>Micron Technology’s latest financial results offer a window into how the AI boom is reshaping the global memory market — with ripple effects across consumer electronics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光科技最新的财务结果提供了一个窗口，展示了人工智能热潮如何重塑全球内存市场，并对消费电子产品产生连锁反应。</p>
</div><p>The US-based memory-chip maker posted record revenue and operating income for its fiscal first quarter, signalling increasing demand for memory devices, which are required for AI systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家美国内存芯片制造商在其财政第一季度发布了创纪录的收入和营业收入，表明对内存设备的需求正在增加，而这些设备是人工智能系统所需的。</p>
</div><p>While Micron investors cheered its performance, the surging demand for memory chips is mounting cost pressures for device makers and, ultimately, consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美光的投资者对其业绩表示欢呼，但对内存芯片的激增需求正在给设备制造商和最终消费者带来成本压力。</p>
</div><p><strong>AI demand is absorbing memory supply</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>人工智能需求正在吸收内存供应</strong></p>
</div><p>Micron reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $13.6 billion, up 57% year over year, and projected sales of $18.7 billion for the current quarter ending in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光报告称，财政第一季度收入为 136 亿美元，同比增长 57%，并预计截至 2 月份的当前季度销售额为 187 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That forecast exceeded Wall Street expectations by a wide margin, reflecting sharply rising prices for memory chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一预测大幅超出华尔街的预期，反映出内存芯片价格急剧上涨。</p>
</div><p>The surge is being driven by artificial intelligence systems, which require large amounts of specialised memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一激增是由人工智能系统推动的，这些系统需要大量专用内存，特别是高带宽内存。</p>
</div><p>As AI data centres scale rapidly, they are soaking up a growing share of global memory supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着人工智能数据中心的快速扩张，它们正在吸收全球内存供应的越来越大份额。</p>
</div><p>Micron executives acknowledged on the earnings call that demand is outstripping what the industry can provide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光高管在财报电话会议上承认，需求已经超过了行业能够提供的水平。</p>
</div><p>The company said it is “more than sold out” of certain products and expects aggregate supply to remain “substantially short of demand for the foreseeable future.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司表示，某些产品 “已经售罄”，并预计整体供应在可预见的未来将 “显著短缺于需求”。</p>
</div><p>Micron earlier this month announced it was exiting its consumer memory business to focus on high-bandwidth memory chips, which are used in AI data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光本月早些时候宣布将退出消费内存业务，专注于用于人工智能数据中心的高带宽内存芯片。</p>
</div><p>This imbalance is already evident in market pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不平衡在市场定价中已经显而易见。</p>
</div><p>According to Trendforce, the spot price of a commonly used dynamic random-access memory module has risen more than 60% over the past six months and is expected to approach $500 next quarter — nearly double the price a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Trendforce 的数据，常用的动态随机存取内存模块的现货价格在过去六个月中上涨了超过 60%，预计下个季度将接近 500 美元——几乎是去年价格的两倍。</p>
</div><p><strong>Limited ability to boost production quickly</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>快速提升生产能力的能力有限</strong></p>
</div><p>In theory, higher prices should encourage manufacturers to expand capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理论上，更高的价格应该鼓励制造商扩大产能。</p>
</div><p>In practice, memory fabrication plants take years to build.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但实际上，内存制造厂的建设需要数年时间。</p>
</div><p>Micron plans to break ground on a new fab in upstate New York early next year, but production from that facility is not expected until 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光计划在明年初在纽约州北部开工建设一座新工厂，但该设施的生产预计要到 2030 年才能开始。</p>
</div><p>The company is ramping up spending elsewhere, planning a record $20 billion in capital expenditure this fiscal year, roughly double its average annual spending over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司正在其他地方加大支出，计划在本财政年度创纪录地投入 200 亿美元的资本支出，约为过去五年平均年度支出的两倍。</p>
</div><p>Even so, Micron has cautioned that this level of investment will still fall short of meeting demand for AI-related memory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，美光仍然警告称，这一投资水平仍将无法满足对人工智能相关内存的需求。</p>
</div><p>With supply growth constrained, higher memory costs are becoming embedded across the electronics supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着供应增长受限，更高的内存成本正在电子供应链中逐渐嵌入。</p>
</div><p>Every central processing unit — the core of PCs, smartphones, tablets, game consoles, and other devices — requires memory to function, making it difficult for manufacturers to avoid these pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个中央处理器——PC、智能手机、平板电脑、游戏机和其他设备的核心——都需要内存才能正常工作，这使得制造商很难避免这些压力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Consumers and device makers feel the squeeze</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>消费者和设备制造商感受到压力</strong></p>
</div><p>PC and smartphone makers are already warning investors about the impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PC 和智能手机制造商已经开始警告投资者有关影响。</p>
</div><p>Dell’s Chief Operating Officer, Jeff Clarke, said in the company’s earnings call last month, the company would try to minimise the effect of rising component costs but acknowledged that “the cost basis is going up across all products.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戴尔首席运营官杰夫·克拉克在上个月的财报电话会议上表示，公司将努力减少组件成本上升的影响，但承认 “所有产品的成本基础都在上升”。</p>
</div><p>Business Insider reported that Dell is looking to increase the prices of its commercial products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《商业内幕》报道，戴尔正在考虑提高其商业产品的价格。</p>
</div><p>HP has warned that higher memory prices could push operating profits toward the lower end of its guidance range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠普警告称，更高的内存价格可能会将运营利润推向其指导范围的下限。</p>
</div><p>Some of these costs are likely to be passed on to consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些成本中的一些可能会转嫁给消费者。</p>
</div><p>Counterpoint Research recently cut its forecast for global smartphone shipments next year, now expecting a 2.1% decline instead of modest growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Counterpoint Research 最近下调了对明年全球智能手机出货量的预测，现在预计将下降 2.1%，而不是温和增长。</p>
</div><p>The timing is particularly challenging for premium smartphones with AI features, which require even more system memory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一时机对具有人工智能功能的高端智能手机尤其具有挑战性，因为它们需要更多的系统内存。</p>
</div><p>The effects extend beyond phones and PCs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响不仅限于手机和 PC。</p>
</div><p>Nintendo shares have fallen sharply amid concerns about memory costs for its next-generation Switch console.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任天堂的股票因对其下一代 Switch 游戏机的内存成本的担忧而大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Analysts estimate that an additional $40 per unit in memory expenses could significantly dent the company’s profits, raising the possibility of a higher retail price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师估计，额外的每单位 40 美元的内存费用可能会显著削弱公司的利润，增加零售价格上涨的可能性。</p>
</div><p><strong>A structural shift, not a short-term spike</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结构性转变，而非短期激增</strong></p>
</div><p>Micron’s results underline that this is not a temporary supply glitch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光的结果强调这不是暂时的供应故障。</p>
</div><p>The company estimates that the total addressable market for high-bandwidth memory could grow at a compound annual rate of 40% and reach $100 billion within three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司估计，高带宽内存的总可寻址市场可能以 40% 的复合年增长率增长，并在三年内达到 1000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>For consumers, that means higher prices for electronics may persist as long as AI investment remains strong and supply struggles to catch up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于消费者来说，这意味着只要人工智能投资保持强劲，电子产品的价格可能会持续上涨，而供应难以跟上。</p>
</div>

Smartphones and PCs are about to get expensive next year; here’s why

- 消费者在购置新电脑或智能手机时面临更高价格，原因是 AI 需求推动内存成本上升。  
- 美光科技第一财季收入达 136 亿美元，显示内存需求大增，但产能不足。  
- 预计未来电子产品价格会上涨，尤其是具备 AI 功能的高端手机和游戏机。

智能手机和个人电脑在明年可能会涨价；以下是原因