<p>作者：Christine Ji</p>
<p>人工智能的威胁使得像 Salesforce 和 Adobe 这样的知名软件股票交易接近多年来的最低水平。分析师们对哪些公司将重新崛起为赢家意见不一。</p>
<p>软件公司正面临来自人工智能原生初创公司的竞争加剧。</p>
<p>人工智能交易推动了半导体和硬件股票的上涨，但科技行业的其他部分却错过了大幅收益。</p>
<p>事实上，一些软件和信息技术股票在市盈率方面的交易接近近期历史最低水平。这是因为资金正在从这些股票中流出，投资者寻求在人工智能基础设施中更具吸引力的机会。</p>
<p>这种动态引发了华尔街的激烈辩论。一些人认为这是以低价买入优质股票的机会，而另一些人则认为许多股票之所以便宜是有原因的，因为人工智能可能会从根本上损害它们的商业模式。</p>
<p>&#34;对人工智能收入增长速度的沮丧情绪依然存在，这些收入仍然非常小，&#34; Baird 的高级研究分析师 Rob Oliver 对 MarketWatch 表示。同时，人工智能原生初创公司为传统软件公司带来了更多竞争。</p>
<p>MarketWatch 查看了在五年期前瞻市盈率低点附近交易的主要科技股票。在纳斯达克 100 指数 NDX、标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 信息技术行业或&#34;七大巨头&#34;中的股票中，有 10 只符合条件，包括 Adobe（ADBE）、Salesforce（CRM）和 ServiceNow（NOW）等知名公司。</p>
<p>Qnity Electronics（Q）也符合标准，但由于其最近从杜邦公司（DuPont de Nemours，DD）分拆出来，缺乏可比的五年交易历史而被排除在外。</p>
<p>阅读：这 13 只科技股票利润增长迅速——而且仍在打折中</p>
<p>Adobe 今年受到的打击尤其严重，因为人们担心像 Figma（FIG）和 Canva 这样的人工智能原生竞争者正在蚕食其市场份额，即使 Adobe 正在推广自己的人工智能工具 Firefly。</p>
<p>&#34;Adobe 今天面临的竞争远比几年前要多，&#34; Oliver 表示，他对该股票持中性评级。&#34;Adobe 市盈率下降的部分原因是竞争加剧，部分原因是增长率下降，人们质疑它是否还能实现两位数的增长。&#34;</p>
<p>KeyBanc 分析师 Jackson Ader 本周早些时候将 ServiceNow 和 Adobe 的股票评级从行业持平下调至减持，并在一份报告中写道，预计这两家公司将面临收入增长下降。在上周 Adobe 的财报发布后，Ader 表示他认为该股票在 2026 年不太可能恢复，因为它不仅面临来自人工智能原生应用程序的竞争，还面临大型语言模型开发者的竞争。&#34;开发人工智能能力的多样化参与者本质上是创造机器，这使得 Adobe 在市场上的地位变得困难，&#34; Ader 写道。</p>
<p>Ader 的谨慎观点与其他几位分析师一致：Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes 在 8 月份将 Adobe 的股票评级从持有下调至卖出。本月早些时候，Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives 表示，Adobe 不太可能从人工智能的干扰中恢复，因为人工智能工具缩小了公司的核心专业用户基础。虽然 Bernstein 分析师 Mark Moerdler 对 Adobe 的股票给予了跑赢大盘的评级，但他在上周的一份报告中写道，目前没有足够的数据让公司&#34;反驳空头论点&#34;。</p>
<p>来自 MarketWatch 的更多信息：英特尔、Adobe 和这些其他&#34;人工智能失败者&#34;股票可能会在下一阶段的科技繁荣中被抛在后面</p>
<p>ServiceNow 被许多分析师视为软件行业中的人工智能成功案例。它是第一批成功实施人工智能启用的&#34;Pro Plus&#34;层价格上涨并从按用户计费转向基于使用的定价的软件公司之一。</p>
<p>然而，Ader 表示，他看到 ServiceNow 的业务在未来几个季度中面临越来越多的人工智能风险。周一，ServiceNow 的股票下跌近 12%，部分原因是最近有彭博社报道称该公司正在洽谈收购网络安全公司 Armis。投资者担心收购可能会分散对人工智能工作的关注。</p>
<p>Bernstein 分析师 Peter Weed 对围绕 ServiceNow 的悲观情绪提出了反驳，称其在抛售后是&#34;最便宜的大型软件股票&#34;。Weed 认为，收购 Armis 的潜在交易将与 ServiceNow 的架构战略一致，并可能推动收入增长。</p>
<p>阅读：旧的软件投资策略已经死去。现在该把钱投向哪里。</p>
<p>Salesforce 今年面临对其 Agentforce 平台的收入生成能力的怀疑，该平台允许客户构建和部署人工智能代理。但该公司的财报电话会议在 12 月显示出客户对人工智能解决方案的支付意愿和处理的人工智能令牌数量的增加。该公司还对其产品实施了价格上涨，一些分析师将其视为 Salesforce 的人工智能产品为客户增值的积极信号。</p>
<p>&#34;Salesforce 是一只非常便宜的股票，我们的调查继续支持对 Agentforce 的兴趣，&#34; Oliver 表示。他对 Salesforce 和 ServiceNow 的股票给予了跑赢大盘的评级。</p>
<p>除了传统软件外，IT 研究公司 Gartner 的股票今年因合同价值增长放缓而受到重创。尽管 Gartner 的股票在今年迄今为止在标准普尔 500 指数中表现最差，但 William Blair 的 Andrew Nicholas 表示，他认为人工智能对该 IT 研究公司的影响被夸大了，并给予该股票跑赢大盘的评级。</p>
<p>在 11 月的一份报告中，Nicholas 写道，该公司一直在内部部署人工智能工具以提高效率，客户也利用 Gartner 来帮助他们制定自己的人工智能战略。</p>
<p>另请阅读：人工智能正在摧毁这些曾经可靠的科技股票。投资者是否忽视了重点？</p>
<p>-Christine Ji</p>
<p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（结束）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>2025 年 12 月 20 日 08:00ET</p>

现在服务

赛富时

ADBE

<p>由于人工智能竞争，Adobe、Salesforce 和 ServiceNow 等科技股的市盈率倍数较低。分析师对这些股票是否被低估或是价值陷阱意见不一。Adobe 面临竞争加剧和增长放缓的挑战，而 ServiceNow 在人工智能方面取得成功，但也面临来自人工智能风险和收购谈判的压力。尽管存在怀疑，Salesforce 显示出人工智能的增长势头</p>

<p>By Christine Ji</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Christine Ji</p>
</div><p>The AI threat has led storied software stocks like Salesforce and Adobe to trade near their cheapest levels in years. Analysts are divided on which names will re-emerge as winners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能的威胁使得像 Salesforce 和 Adobe 这样的知名软件股票交易接近多年来的最低水平。分析师们对哪些公司将重新崛起为赢家意见不一。</p>
</div><p>Software companies are facing increased competition from AI-native startups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件公司正面临来自人工智能原生初创公司的竞争加剧。</p>
</div><p>The artificial-intelligence trade has lifted up semiconductor and hardware stocks, but other parts of the tech sector have missed out on the big gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能交易推动了半导体和硬件股票的上涨，但科技行业的其他部分却错过了大幅收益。</p>
</div><p>In fact, some software and information-technology stocks are trading near their lowest multiples in recent history on a price-to-earnings basis. This comes as money has been rotating out of those plays as investors seek out more attractive opportunities in AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，一些软件和信息技术股票在市盈率方面的交易接近近期历史最低水平。这是因为资金正在从这些股票中流出，投资者寻求在人工智能基础设施中更具吸引力的机会。</p>
</div><p>The dynamic is the source of fierce Wall Street debate. Some see an opportunity to buy up quality stocks at bargain prices, while others argue many of the plays might now be cheap for good reason, as AI could fundamentally damage their business models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态引发了华尔街的激烈辩论。一些人认为这是以低价买入优质股票的机会，而另一些人则认为许多股票之所以便宜是有原因的，因为人工智能可能会从根本上损害它们的商业模式。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's frustration with the pace of AI revenues, which are still very small,&#34; Rob Oliver, senior research analyst at Baird, told MarketWatch. Meanwhile, AI-native startups represent more competition for traditional software companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;对人工智能收入增长速度的沮丧情绪依然存在，这些收入仍然非常小，&#34; Baird 的高级研究分析师 Rob Oliver 对 MarketWatch 表示。同时，人工智能原生初创公司为传统软件公司带来了更多竞争。</p>
</div><p>MarketWatch took a look at major technology stocks trading within 10% of their five-year forward P/E lows. Among stocks either in the Nasdaq-100 Index NDX, the S&amp;P 500 index's SPX information-technology sector or the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; 10 fit the bill, including high-profile names like Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketWatch 查看了在五年期前瞻市盈率低点附近交易的主要科技股票。在纳斯达克 100 指数 NDX、标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 信息技术行业或&#34;七大巨头&#34;中的股票中，有 10 只符合条件，包括 Adobe（ADBE）、Salesforce（CRM）和 ServiceNow（NOW）等知名公司。</p>
</div><p>Qnity Electronics (Q) also met the criteria but was excluded due to the fact that it recently spun off from DuPont de Nemours (DD) and lacks a comparable five-year trading history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Qnity Electronics（Q）也符合标准，但由于其最近从杜邦公司（DuPont de Nemours，DD）分拆出来，缺乏可比的五年交易历史而被排除在外。</p>
</div><p>Read: These 13 tech stocks have grown profits rapidly - and they're still on sale</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：这 13 只科技股票利润增长迅速——而且仍在打折中</p>
</div><p>Adobe has been hit particularly hard this year amid fears that AI-native competitors like Figma (FIG) and Canva are eating its lunch, even as Adobe promotes its own AI tool, called Firefly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Adobe 今年受到的打击尤其严重，因为人们担心像 Figma（FIG）和 Canva 这样的人工智能原生竞争者正在蚕食其市场份额，即使 Adobe 正在推广自己的人工智能工具 Firefly。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Adobe faces far more competition today than it did a few years ago,&#34; said Oliver, who has a neutral rating on the stock. &#34;Part of the multiple decline for Adobe is because of the increased competition. Part of it is because the growth rate has declined now, and people are questioning whether it will be a double-digit grower.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;Adobe 今天面临的竞争远比几年前要多，&#34; Oliver 表示，他对该股票持中性评级。&#34;Adobe 市盈率下降的部分原因是竞争加剧，部分原因是增长率下降，人们质疑它是否还能实现两位数的增长。&#34;</p>
</div><p>KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader downgraded both ServiceNow and Adobe shares to underweight from sector-weight earlier this week, writing in a note that both companies are expected to see declining revenue growth. After Adobe's earnings report last week, Ader said he believes the stock is unlikely to recover in 2026 as it faces increasing competition from not only AI-native applications but also developers of large language models. &#34;The diversity of players developing AI capabilities that, at their heart, are creation machines makes Adobe's position in the marketplace a difficult one,&#34; Ader wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KeyBanc 分析师 Jackson Ader 本周早些时候将 ServiceNow 和 Adobe 的股票评级从行业持平下调至减持，并在一份报告中写道，预计这两家公司将面临收入增长下降。在上周 Adobe 的财报发布后，Ader 表示他认为该股票在 2026 年不太可能恢复，因为它不仅面临来自人工智能原生应用程序的竞争，还面临大型语言模型开发者的竞争。&#34;开发人工智能能力的多样化参与者本质上是创造机器，这使得 Adobe 在市场上的地位变得困难，&#34; Ader 写道。</p>
</div><p>Ader joins several other analysts with his cautious view: Melius Research's Ben Reitzes downgraded Adobe's stock to sell from hold in August. Earlier this month, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote that Adobe is unlikely to recover from AI disruption as AI tools shrink the company's core professional-user base. While Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler gives Adobe's stock an outperform rating, he wrote in a note last week that there's not enough data for the company to &#34;disprove the bear thesis&#34; yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ader 的谨慎观点与其他几位分析师一致：Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes 在 8 月份将 Adobe 的股票评级从持有下调至卖出。本月早些时候，Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives 表示，Adobe 不太可能从人工智能的干扰中恢复，因为人工智能工具缩小了公司的核心专业用户基础。虽然 Bernstein 分析师 Mark Moerdler 对 Adobe 的股票给予了跑赢大盘的评级，但他在上周的一份报告中写道，目前没有足够的数据让公司&#34;反驳空头论点&#34;。</p>
</div><p>More from MarketWatch: Intel, Adobe and these other 'AI loser' stocks could get left behind in the next phase of the tech boom</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 MarketWatch 的更多信息：英特尔、Adobe 和这些其他&#34;人工智能失败者&#34;股票可能会在下一阶段的科技繁荣中被抛在后面</p>
</div><p>ServiceNow has been regarded by many analysts as an AI success story in the software industry. It was one of the first software companies to successfully implement price increases for its AI-enabled &#34;Pro Plus&#34; tier and shift away from per-user to usage-based pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ServiceNow 被许多分析师视为软件行业中的人工智能成功案例。它是第一批成功实施人工智能启用的&#34;Pro Plus&#34;层价格上涨并从按用户计费转向基于使用的定价的软件公司之一。</p>
</div><p>However, Ader said he sees an increasing likelihood that ServiceNow's business becomes more exposed to AI risk in the coming quarters. Shares of ServiceNow fell almost 12% on Monday, partly due to a recent Bloomberg report suggesting that the company is in talks to purchase cybersecurity company Armis. Investors are concerned that an acquisition could divert attention away from AI efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Ader 表示，他看到 ServiceNow 的业务在未来几个季度中面临越来越多的人工智能风险。周一，ServiceNow 的股票下跌近 12%，部分原因是最近有彭博社报道称该公司正在洽谈收购网络安全公司 Armis。投资者担心收购可能会分散对人工智能工作的关注。</p>
</div><p>Bernstein analyst Peter Weed pushed back on the bearish sentiment surrounding ServiceNow, calling it &#34;the cheapest large-cap software stock&#34; after the selloff. Weed believes a potential acquisition of Armis would be strategically aligned with ServiceNow's architecture and could drive revenue growth, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bernstein 分析师 Peter Weed 对围绕 ServiceNow 的悲观情绪提出了反驳，称其在抛售后是&#34;最便宜的大型软件股票&#34;。Weed 认为，收购 Armis 的潜在交易将与 ServiceNow 的架构战略一致，并可能推动收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Read: The old software investing playbook is dead. Here's where to put your money now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：旧的软件投资策略已经死去。现在该把钱投向哪里。</p>
</div><p>Salesforce has faced skepticism this year regarding its ability to generate revenues from its Agentforce platform, which allows customers to build and deploy AI agents. But the company's earnings call in December signaled momentum among customers paying for AI solutions and an increasing volume of AI tokens processed. The company has also enacted price increases on its products, which some analysts are taking as an encouraging sign that Salesforce's AI offerings are adding value for customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Salesforce 今年面临对其 Agentforce 平台的收入生成能力的怀疑，该平台允许客户构建和部署人工智能代理。但该公司的财报电话会议在 12 月显示出客户对人工智能解决方案的支付意愿和处理的人工智能令牌数量的增加。该公司还对其产品实施了价格上涨，一些分析师将其视为 Salesforce 的人工智能产品为客户增值的积极信号。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Salesforce is a very inexpensive stock, and our checks have continued to support that there's interest in Agentforce,&#34; Oliver said. He has outperform ratings on Salesforce and ServiceNow shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;Salesforce 是一只非常便宜的股票，我们的调查继续支持对 Agentforce 的兴趣，&#34; Oliver 表示。他对 Salesforce 和 ServiceNow 的股票给予了跑赢大盘的评级。</p>
</div><p>Outside of traditional software, shares of IT research firm Gartner have been hit hard this year due to slowing growth in contract values. While Gartner's stock is the fifth-worst performer in the S&amp;P 500 so far this year, William Blair's Andrew Nicholas said he believes the impact of AI on the IT research firm has been overstated and gives the stock an outperform rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了传统软件外，IT 研究公司 Gartner 的股票今年因合同价值增长放缓而受到重创。尽管 Gartner 的股票在今年迄今为止在标准普尔 500 指数中表现最差，但 William Blair 的 Andrew Nicholas 表示，他认为人工智能对该 IT 研究公司的影响被夸大了，并给予该股票跑赢大盘的评级。</p>
</div><p>In a November note, Nicholas wrote that the company has been deploying AI tools internally to improve efficiency, and customers have utilized Gartner to help with their own AI strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 11 月的一份报告中，Nicholas 写道，该公司一直在内部部署人工智能工具以提高效率，客户也利用 Gartner 来帮助他们制定自己的人工智能战略。</p>
</div><p>Also read: AI is crushing these once-reliable tech stocks. Are investors missing the point?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：人工智能正在摧毁这些曾经可靠的科技股票。投资者是否忽视了重点？</p>
</div><p>-Christine Ji</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Christine Ji</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（结束）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>12-20-25 0800ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 12 月 20 日 08:00ET</p>
</div>

Adobe and these 9 fellow tech stocks are rarely this cheap. Are they great deals or value traps?

- 软件股因 AI 威胁和竞争交易接近多年低点。  
- 分析师对哪些公司将重新崛起存在分歧。  
- Salesforce 表现出 AI 解决方案的市场增长潜力。

Adobe 和其他 9 只科技股很少有如此低的价格。它们是绝佳的投资机会还是价值陷阱？