<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>随着主要股指在历史高位附近波动，表面下的行业轮动讲述了一个引人注目的故事。</p>
<p>你最好不要在 2026 年前押注消费者。早些时候发布的 CPI 数据远低于预期。原油价格正在下跌。重要的消费者风向标和零售股票正在创下多年新高。</p>
<p>市场是否知道一些公众尚未察觉的事情？这并不是第一次发生这种情况。理解这些信号背后的驱动因素需要观察当前美国经济现实的分裂。</p>
<p>我们知道美国有两种不同的经济现实。至少在报告的数据方面，它是沿着 10%/90% 的线分裂的。</p>
<p>消费者支出可不是小事。它占美国经济的约 70%。前 10% 的支出类型与后 90% 的支出类型截然不同。尽管外面有很多悲观者和悲观情绪，市场似乎在说，后 90% 的情况将会变得更好。是的，前 10% 也会受益。</p>
<p>首先，让我们看看市场证据，然后再推演潜在的经济故事。</p>
<h3><strong>1. 消费者非必需品行业（XLY）创下新历史高点</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="632" height="306" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png"/></p>
<p>亚马逊占美国零售销售总量的 7%-10%。与特斯拉在该指数中的权重结合，这意味着有显著的购买力在推动上涨。</p>
<h3><strong>2. 等权重消费者非必需品行业（RSPD）接近新历史高点</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="647" height="303" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png"/></p>
<p>虽然还没有达到，但趋势是明确的。像 Kohl's（KSS）、Victoria's Secret（VSCO）、American Eagle（AEO）和 GAP（GAP）这样的个别零售股票最近复苏了。</p>
<p>如果消费者将陷入困境，为什么这些股票会被追捧？</p>
<h3><strong>3. 原油价格回到 2021 年 2 月的水平</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="642" height="308" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png"/></p>
<p>能源缓解即将到来。大多数人会将节省下来的钱花在其他商品上。这为 2026 年设定了一个有趣的动态。别忘了明年即将到来的刺激支票，以及上周宣布的 “战士红利”。</p>
<p>2026 年资金将会流动。</p>
<p>目前通货膨胀并没有飙升，但即将到来的消费速度加快为下一轮通货膨胀埋下了种子。到明年这个时候，我们很可能会有一个截然不同的对话。但现在，这就是市场所传达的故事。忽视它自担风险。我会继续更新你。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>冰块正在融化：接下来会发生什么</p>
<p>看涨交易成本增加 50%</p>
<p>CPI 数据不完整</p>

<p>这篇文章预测到 2026 年消费者将会复苏，这一预测得到了低于预期的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据、下降的原油价格以及消费品股票上涨的支持。市场表明美国经济的前 10% 和后 90% 都有改善的迹象。关键指标包括亚马逊和特斯拉对零售销售的影响、零售股票的上涨以及能源成本的缓解。预计消费者支出的增加可能会导致未来的通货膨胀，但当前市场信号指向消费者的积极前景</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>As major stock indices continue to chop around near their all-time highs, the sector rotations underneath the surface have been telling a compelling story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着主要股指在历史高位附近波动，表面下的行业轮动讲述了一个引人注目的故事。</p>
</div><p>You better not be betting against the consumer going into 2026. The CPI data from earlier in the week came in way cooler than expected. Crude oil prices are breaking down. Important consumer bellwether and retail stocks are hitting multi-year highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你最好不要在 2026 年前押注消费者。早些时候发布的 CPI 数据远低于预期。原油价格正在下跌。重要的消费者风向标和零售股票正在创下多年新高。</p>
</div><p>Does the market know something the public hasn't caught onto yet? It wouldn't be the first time that happened. Understanding what's driving these signals requires looking at the split in the American economic reality right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场是否知道一些公众尚未察觉的事情？这并不是第一次发生这种情况。理解这些信号背后的驱动因素需要观察当前美国经济现实的分裂。</p>
</div><p>We know that there are two separate economic realities in America. It's split along the 10%/90% lines, at least when it comes to the reported data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们知道美国有两种不同的经济现实。至少在报告的数据方面，它是沿着 10%/90% 的线分裂的。</p>
</div><p>Consumer spending is no joke. It makes up around 70% of the U.S. economy. The type of spending that goes on in the top 10% is much different than what goes on in the bottom 90%. Despite all the doomers and gloomers out there, the market seems to be saying that the situation is going to be getting better for the bottom 90%. And yes, it will be good for the top 10%, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者支出可不是小事。它占美国经济的约 70%。前 10% 的支出类型与后 90% 的支出类型截然不同。尽管外面有很多悲观者和悲观情绪，市场似乎在说，后 90% 的情况将会变得更好。是的，前 10% 也会受益。</p>
</div><p>First, let's look at the market evidence before war-gaming a potential economic story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，让我们看看市场证据，然后再推演潜在的经济故事。</p>
</div><h3><strong>1. The Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) Hit a New All-Time High</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>1. 消费者非必需品行业（XLY）创下新历史高点</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png"/></p>
<p>Amazon accounts for 7%-10% of overall U.S. retail sales volume. When combined with Tesla's weight in this index, that's significant buying power pushing higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊占美国零售销售总量的 7%-10%。与特斯拉在该指数中的权重结合，这意味着有显著的购买力在推动上涨。</p>
</div><h3><strong>2. Equal-Weighted Consumer Discretionary Sector (RSPD) Approaches a New All-Time High</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2. 等权重消费者非必需品行业（RSPD）接近新历史高点</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png"/></p>
<p>It's not there yet, but the trend is clear. Individual retail stock names like Kohl's (KSS), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), American Eagle (AEO), and GAP (GAP) have come back to life recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然还没有达到，但趋势是明确的。像 Kohl's（KSS）、Victoria's Secret（VSCO）、American Eagle（AEO）和 GAP（GAP）这样的个别零售股票最近复苏了。</p>
</div><p>Why would these names be bidding if the consumer was going to be stuck in dire straights?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果消费者将陷入困境，为什么这些股票会被追捧？</p>
</div><h3><strong>3. Crude Oil's Back to February-2021 Levels</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>3. 原油价格回到 2021 年 2 月的水平</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png"/></p>
<p>Energy relief is on the way. Most people will spend the savings on other items. This sets up an interesting dynamic for 2026. Don't forget about those stimulus checks that are supposed to be coming next year on top of the recently announced &#34;warrior dividends&#34; last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源缓解即将到来。大多数人会将节省下来的钱花在其他商品上。这为 2026 年设定了一个有趣的动态。别忘了明年即将到来的刺激支票，以及上周宣布的 “战士红利”。</p>
</div><p>Money is going to be on the move in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年资金将会流动。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is not spiking right now, but this increased spending speed that's coming sows the seeds for the next round of inflation. By this time next year, odds are we'll be having a much different conversation. But for now, this is the story the market is telling. Ignore it at your own peril. I'll keep you posted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前通货膨胀并没有飙升，但即将到来的消费速度加快为下一轮通货膨胀埋下了种子。到明年这个时候，我们很可能会有一个截然不同的对话。但现在，这就是市场所传达的故事。忽视它自担风险。我会继续更新你。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Ice Cube Is Melting: Here's What Happens Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冰块正在融化：接下来会发生什么</p>
</div><p>Bullish Trades Cost 50% More</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看涨交易成本增加 50%</p>
</div><p>CPI Data Is Incomplete</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 数据不完整</p>
</div>

2026 年：消费者回归的一年