<p>日本银行选择了广泛预期的 25 个基点加息，并保持未来加息的可能性，尽管行长植田和男的评论在前瞻指引上相对中性。11 月的消费者物价指数符合市场预期，持续的通胀压力依然存在。我们预计日本银行将在 2026 年下半年进一步加息 25 个基点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp"/></p>
<p><em>日本银行行长植田和男</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>日本银行对实现通胀目标的信心明显增强</strong></h3>
<p>会议声明在多个地方显示出对可持续通胀的日益信心，提到 “企业明年将继续稳步提高工资”，“企业积极设定工资的行为被打断的风险预计较低”，以及 “工资和价格适度上涨的机制将得到维持”。</p>
<p>与此同时，日本银行强调，加息后实际利率预计将保持 “显著” 负值，宽松的金融条件将继续坚定支持经济活动。</p>
<p>声明本身清楚地表明，只要日本银行的前景继续实现，就会有更多的加息，但这些加息的时机和幅度仍不明确。但我们认为，强调实际利率显著为负表明日本银行现在认为中性利率的下限在 1% 以上。</p>
<p>然而，重要的是要注意，中性利率是一个概念范围，而不是一个固定点，应该仅作为参考。日本银行不会试图精确指定这一点，这在新闻发布会上得到了行长植田和男的强调。</p>
<h3><strong>植田行长采取了谨慎的立场</strong></h3>
<p>市场原本预期日本银行会采取鹰派加息，期待明确其缩小中性利率范围和未来加息路径的立场。然而，日本银行和植田在这方面都保持了相当模糊，这可能导致市场失望。这可能解释了市场反应——10 年期日本国债（JGB）超过 2.0%，美元/日元货币对攀升至 156 水平。</p>
<p>植田没有提供中性利率的具体范围，并强调很难看出该范围是否真的在缩小。他提到，日本银行将密切评估更高利率对经济因素的影响。我们认为这些因素应包括企业借贷、银行贷款、破产、私人消费和资本支出。</p>
<h3><strong>日本银行观察</strong></h3>
<p>我们认为，通胀、春季工资谈判和日元是日本银行最密切关注的指标。</p>
<p>由于政府对能源的补贴和大米价格下跌，整体通胀预计在 2026 年上半年将降至 2% 以下。然而，剔除新鲜食品和能源的核心通胀预计仅会小幅放缓，仍将远高于 2%。我们认为，稳健的工资增长和财政刺激将继续保持通胀压力。因此，通胀可能会遵循日本银行的预测。</p>
<p>在工资增长方面，几个工会设定的工资目标与去年相似，超过 5%，这表明工资势头应继续保持稳定。我们预计日元将适度升值，主要是因为美元预计将在明年回落。如果日元保持在 155 以下并朝向 152，我们认为日本银行不会急于再次加息。目前，我们预计日本银行的下一次加息将在 2026 年 10 月出现。</p>
<p>然而，与我们适度日元升值的基本情况不同，如果日元对美元贬值并继续推高进口价格，时间表可能会提前到 2026 年第二季度。这次，政府没有公开反对日本银行加息的决定，因为它也认识到，增加的进口成本可能会妨碍降低通胀的努力。</p>
<p>生活成本飙升导致之前的自由民主党（LDP）政府在最近的重大选举中遭受损失。因此，如果通胀比预期更顽固，政府可能会接受日本银行的加息。日元将在下一次加息的时机上发挥关键作用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>通胀依然顽固</strong></h3>
<p>11 月整体通胀同比微降至 2.9%（相比 10 月的 3.0% 和市场共识的 2.9%），而剔除新鲜食品的核心通胀连续第三个月保持在 3.0%。</p>
<p>按月计算，经过季节调整的通胀环比坚挺上涨 0.4%，商品和服务价格分别上涨 0.7% 和 0.2%。公用事业价格在能源补贴计划结束后上涨，而其他价格因工资增长和日元贬值而上涨。</p>
<p>我们认为，通胀应是观察日本银行未来几个月货币政策变化的主要指标。由于政府的能源补贴以及大米价格的进一步稳定，整体通胀预计在 2026 年上半年将降至 2% 以下，但核心通胀将在相当长一段时间内保持在 2% 以上。</p>
<p>与此同时，12 月东京 CPI 通胀数据将于下周五发布。我们预计整体通胀主要由于去年高基数而有所缓解，但剔除新鲜食品和能源的核心通胀预计将保持在 2.8%。</p>
<h3><strong>大米价格迅速降温，但外出就餐价格仍然高企</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="744" height="343" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CEIC</em></p>
<h3><strong>美元/日元走强</strong></h3>
<p>在日本央行初步新闻发布后，美元/日元货币对小幅上涨，随后带动了一些动能。如果我们必须挑选出一个推动该货币对的评论，那可能是行长上田所说的，日本央行在再次行动之前需要检查利率变化的影响。今年，日本央行花了 11 个月时间来监测 1 月份加息的影响。</p>
<p>我们现在正进入年末流动性减少的阶段，趋势往往会延续。在 157.00 以上，美元/日元交叉汇率可能会推高至 157.90 的近期高点。但在 158/160 区域，我们正进入干预区域——日本央行在 2024 年夏季时在这一水平上出售了约 1000 亿美元。</p>
<p>我们假设它将在这些水平附近再次进行干预，尽管可以说它更希望在美元疲软和美联储鸽派/即将放松政策的背景下进行，以创造一个更有利于外汇干预的环境。</p>
<p>我们确实更倾向于明年美元/日元货币对走低，因为日本持有美国债务证券的外汇对冲成本正在下降。使用三个月远期合约，外汇对冲成本现在已从年初的 4.15% 降至 3.22%，并且从 2023 年底的 6.00% 的峰值回落。日元仍然是 G10 货币中被严重低估的货币，较低的能源价格也应有助于支撑日元。</p>
<p>然而，对明年套利交易的强烈兴趣和强劲的直接投资趋势使得日元保持疲软。我们当然不会排除美元/日元货币对在年末推高，促使干预，并可能需要日本央行提前加息。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>意大利信心小幅上升，受奥运驱动的旅游业推动</p>
<p>亚洲周展望：来自韩国、日本和台湾的关键数据</p>
<p>意大利信心在 12 月改善</p>

<p>日本银行（BoJ）将利率上调 25 个基点，并暗示未来可能会加息，但并不迫在眉睫。行长植田和男的评论保持中立，BoJ 强调维持负实际利率以支持经济活动。通胀和工资增长是未来政策变化的关键指标。预计下一次加息将在 2026 年下半年，但如果日元大幅贬值，可能会提前</p>

<p>The Bank of Japan opted for a widely-expected 25 bp hike and kept the door to future hikes open, though Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments were rather neutral on forward guidance. The November CPI matched market expectations, with persistent inflation pressures intact. We expect a further 25 bp hike by the BoJ, though only in 2026's second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行选择了广泛预期的 25 个基点加息，并保持未来加息的可能性，尽管行长植田和男的评论在前瞻指引上相对中性。11 月的消费者物价指数符合市场预期，持续的通胀压力依然存在。我们预计日本银行将在 2026 年下半年进一步加息 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp"/></p>
<p><em>Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>日本银行行长植田和男</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>The Bank of Japan's Increased Confidence in Achieving its Inflation Target is Evident</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日本银行对实现通胀目标的信心明显增强</strong></h3>
</div><p>The meeting statement shows growing confidence about sustainable inflation in several places, with comments like “firms will continue to raise wages steadily next year”, &#34;the risk of firms’ active wage-setting behavior being interrupted is expected to be low&#34;, and &#34;the mechanism by which both wages and prices rise moderately will be maintained.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会议声明在多个地方显示出对可持续通胀的日益信心，提到 “企业明年将继续稳步提高工资”，“企业积极设定工资的行为被打断的风险预计较低”，以及 “工资和价格适度上涨的机制将得到维持”。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the BoJ emphasized that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly” negative after the hike and accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，日本银行强调，加息后实际利率预计将保持 “显著” 负值，宽松的金融条件将继续坚定支持经济活动。</p>
</div><p>The statement itself clearly signals that more hikes will come as long as the BoJ's outlook continues to be realized, but the timing and magnitude of these hikes remain unclear. But we believe that the emphasis on real rates being significantly negative indicates that the BoJ now considers the lower range of the neutral rate to be above 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>声明本身清楚地表明，只要日本银行的前景继续实现，就会有更多的加息，但这些加息的时机和幅度仍不明确。但我们认为，强调实际利率显著为负表明日本银行现在认为中性利率的下限在 1% 以上。</p>
</div><p>However, it is important to note that the neutral rate is a conceptual range rather than a fixed point, and it should be used only as a reference. The BoJ would not attempt to specify it precisely, which was underscored by Governor Kazuo Ueda during the press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，重要的是要注意，中性利率是一个概念范围，而不是一个固定点，应该仅作为参考。日本银行不会试图精确指定这一点，这在新闻发布会上得到了行长植田和男的强调。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Governor Ueda Took a Cautious Stance</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>植田行长采取了谨慎的立场</strong></h3>
</div><p>The market had expected a hawkish hike from the BoJ, with the expectation of clarifying its stance on narrowing the neutral rate range and future rate hike path. However, both the BoJ and Ueda remained quite vague on this matter, which likely caused disappointment in the market. This could account for the market reaction – 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) exceeded 2.0%, and the USD/JPY currency pair climbed to the 156 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场原本预期日本银行会采取鹰派加息，期待明确其缩小中性利率范围和未来加息路径的立场。然而，日本银行和植田在这方面都保持了相当模糊，这可能导致市场失望。这可能解释了市场反应——10 年期日本国债（JGB）超过 2.0%，美元/日元货币对攀升至 156 水平。</p>
</div><p>Ueda stayed away from providing any specific ranges of the neutral rate and emphasized that it is hard to see whether the range is actually narrowing. Instead of focusing on the neutral rate argument, he mentioned that the BoJ will closely evaluate the impact of higher interest rates on economic factors. We believe these should include corporate borrowing, bank lending, bankruptcies, private consumption, and capital expenditures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>植田没有提供中性利率的具体范围，并强调很难看出该范围是否真的在缩小。他提到，日本银行将密切评估更高利率对经济因素的影响。我们认为这些因素应包括企业借贷、银行贷款、破产、私人消费和资本支出。</p>
</div><h3><strong>BoJ Watch</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日本银行观察</strong></h3>
</div><p>We believe that inflation, spring wage negotiations, and the Japanese yen are the most closely watched indicators for the BoJ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们认为，通胀、春季工资谈判和日元是日本银行最密切关注的指标。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to government subsidies on energy and falling rice prices, headline inflation is likely to drop below 2% in the first half of 2026. However, core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, is expected to decelerate only marginally, in turn remaining well above 2%. Solid wage growth and fiscal stimulus are likely to keep inflationary pressures in our view. Inflation is therefore likely to follow the BoJ’s projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于政府对能源的补贴和大米价格下跌，整体通胀预计在 2026 年上半年将降至 2% 以下。然而，剔除新鲜食品和能源的核心通胀预计仅会小幅放缓，仍将远高于 2%。我们认为，稳健的工资增长和财政刺激将继续保持通胀压力。因此，通胀可能会遵循日本银行的预测。</p>
</div><p>On wage growth, several labor unions have set wage goals similar to last year’s above 5%, signaling that wage momentum should continue at a steady pace. We expect moderate yen appreciation largely because the US dollar should pull back next year. If the yen stays below 155 and heads toward 152, we don't believe the BoJ will rush into another rate hike. Currently, we expect the BoJ’s next rate hike to emerge in October 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在工资增长方面，几个工会设定的工资目标与去年相似，超过 5%，这表明工资势头应继续保持稳定。我们预计日元将适度升值，主要是因为美元预计将在明年回落。如果日元保持在 155 以下并朝向 152，我们认为日本银行不会急于再次加息。目前，我们预计日本银行的下一次加息将在 2026 年 10 月出现。</p>
</div><p>However, unlike our base case of moderate yen appreciation, if the yen weakens against the US dollar and continues to drive up import prices, the timeline could be moved forward to Q2 26. This time, the government did not openly oppose the BoJ’s decision to raise interest rates, since it also recognizes that increased import costs could hinder efforts to bring inflation down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，与我们适度日元升值的基本情况不同，如果日元对美元贬值并继续推高进口价格，时间表可能会提前到 2026 年第二季度。这次，政府没有公开反对日本银行加息的决定，因为它也认识到，增加的进口成本可能会妨碍降低通胀的努力。</p>
</div><p>The soaring cost of living led to losses for previous Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) governments in recent major elections. As a result, the government will likely accept the BoJ's rate hike if inflation turns out to be stickier than expected. The Japanese yen will be key in timing the next rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生活成本飙升导致之前的自由民主党（LDP）政府在最近的重大选举中遭受损失。因此，如果通胀比预期更顽固，政府可能会接受日本银行的加息。日元将在下一次加息的时机上发挥关键作用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>Inflation Remains Sticky</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>通胀依然顽固</strong></h3>
</div><p>Headline inflation edged down to 2.9% year-on-year in November (versus 3.0% in October, and 2.9% market consensus) while core inflation, excluding fresh food, stayed at 3.0% for the third consecutive month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月整体通胀同比微降至 2.9%（相比 10 月的 3.0% 和市场共识的 2.9%），而剔除新鲜食品的核心通胀连续第三个月保持在 3.0%。</p>
</div><p>On a monthly basis, inflation climbed a firm 0.4% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, with goods and services prices both up by 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Utilities prices went up following the end of the energy subsidy program, while other prices gained due to wage growth and a weaker Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按月计算，经过季节调整的通胀环比坚挺上涨 0.4%，商品和服务价格分别上涨 0.7% 和 0.2%。公用事业价格在能源补贴计划结束后上涨，而其他价格因工资增长和日元贬值而上涨。</p>
</div><p>We believe inflation should be a main indicator to watch to gauge the BoJ's monetary policy changes in the coming months. Headline inflation is likely to drop below 2% in the first half of 2026 thanks to government energy subsidies, as well as further stabilization of rice prices, but core inflation will remain above 2% for a considerable time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们认为，通胀应是观察日本银行未来几个月货币政策变化的主要指标。由于政府的能源补贴以及大米价格的进一步稳定，整体通胀预计在 2026 年上半年将降至 2% 以下，但核心通胀将在相当长一段时间内保持在 2% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the December Tokyo CPI inflation data will be released next Friday. We expect headline inflation to ease mostly due to the high base last year, yet core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, is expected to remain at 2.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，12 月东京 CPI 通胀数据将于下周五发布。我们预计整体通胀主要由于去年高基数而有所缓解，但剔除新鲜食品和能源的核心通胀预计将保持在 2.8%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Rice Prices Cooled Off Rapidly but Eating Out Prices Remained High</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>大米价格迅速降温，但外出就餐价格仍然高企</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CEIC</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CEIC</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>USD/JPY Goes Bid</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>美元/日元走强</strong></h3>
</div><p>Having ticked a little higher after the BoJ's initial press release, the USD/JPY currency pair has moved up with some momentum. If we had to pick out one comment that moved the pair, it might be the one in which Governor Ueda said that the BoJ would need to check the impact of the rate change each time before moving again. This year, it took the BoJ 11 months to monitor the impact of January's hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本央行初步新闻发布后，美元/日元货币对小幅上涨，随后带动了一些动能。如果我们必须挑选出一个推动该货币对的评论，那可能是行长上田所说的，日本央行在再次行动之前需要检查利率变化的影响。今年，日本央行花了 11 个月时间来监测 1 月份加息的影响。</p>
</div><p>We are moving into a thinning year-end liquidity now, and trends tend to run. Above the 157.00 mark, the USD/JPY cross can push up to test the recent high at the 157.90 level. But in the 158/160 region, we are moving into intervention territory – levels where the BoJ sold around $100 billion in summer 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们现在正进入年末流动性减少的阶段，趋势往往会延续。在 157.00 以上，美元/日元交叉汇率可能会推高至 157.90 的近期高点。但在 158/160 区域，我们正进入干预区域——日本央行在 2024 年夏季时在这一水平上出售了约 1000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>We assume it will intervene again around those levels, although arguably it would prefer a backdrop of a soft dollar and a dovish Federal Reserve/imminent Fed easing to create a more supportive environment for FX intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们假设它将在这些水平附近再次进行干预，尽管可以说它更希望在美元疲软和美联储鸽派/即将放松政策的背景下进行，以创造一个更有利于外汇干预的环境。</p>
</div><p>We do prefer the USD/JPY currency pair coming lower next year as FX hedging costs tumble for Japanese holders of US debt securities. Using the three-month forwards, FX hedging costs have now dropped to 3.22% per annum from 4.15% at the start of the year and from a peak of 6.00% in late 2023. The yen also remains the most undervalued G10 currency by far, and lower energy prices should also prove to be supportive of the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们确实更倾向于明年美元/日元货币对走低，因为日本持有美国债务证券的外汇对冲成本正在下降。使用三个月远期合约，外汇对冲成本现在已从年初的 4.15% 降至 3.22%，并且从 2023 年底的 6.00% 的峰值回落。日元仍然是 G10 货币中被严重低估的货币，较低的能源价格也应有助于支撑日元。</p>
</div><p>Yet a strong interest in the carry trade into next year and strong direct investment trends are keeping the yen soft. And we certainly wouldn't rule out the USD/JPY pair pushing higher into year-end, prompting intervention and perhaps requiring an earlier BoJ hike after all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对明年套利交易的强烈兴趣和强劲的直接投资趋势使得日元保持疲软。我们当然不会排除美元/日元货币对在年末推高，促使干预，并可能需要日本央行提前加息。</p>
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</div>

Further Bank Of Japan Hikes Are Expected, But Not Imminent

- 日本银行加息 25 个基点，未来加息可能性仍然存在。  
- 11 月 CPI 符合市场预期，通胀压力持续。  
- 预计 2026 年第二季度将再加息一次。

预计日本央行将进一步加息，但不会立即实施