<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>耐克最近公布了出色的财报。该公司超出了预期，增幅达到了惊人的 43%。尽管如此，股价仍然暴跌。大多数在观看 CNBC 的交易者都感到困惑。与此同时，我们的社区在一夜之间获得了 140% 的收益。</p>
<p>我想向你展示你可以从中学到什么，以及如何为下一个大交易做好准备。让我们逐步分析。</p>
<h3><strong>准备阶段</strong></h3>
<p>在周二下午 3:38，临近收盘时，有人进行了下注。这不是小额下注。是 7200 份行权价为 64 美元的看跌期权。耐克的交易价格大约在 66 美元。财报将在周三收盘后公布。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png"/></p>
<p>这并不是对糟糕数据的投机。这是机构资本为下行做的布局。这种布局知道市场做市商的对冲动态会造成自我实现的压力。</p>
<p>这是几笔看跌期权交易中的一笔，但有一个巨大的信号。时间线已经开始。</p>
<h3><strong>压力加大</strong></h3>
<p>财报发布当天，信心更强。又有 8360 份行权价为 60 美元的看跌期权。支付价格：每份合约 0.36 美元。</p>
<p>结合周二的活动，两天内累计超过 20000 份看跌期权。在 64 美元和 60 美元的行权价之间。全部是买入，而不是卖出。所有的布局都是为了在耐克的盘后公告之前做下行准备。</p>
<p>卖出这些看跌期权的做市商必须对冲。他们必须做空股票。根据图表，这本不应该是个大问题。市场上有一个良好的上升趋势。但伽马机制在表面下造成了巨大的下行压力。</p>
<p>价格尚未移动，但陷阱已经设好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>交易 - 应对波动率偏斜</strong></h3>
<p>在这里，大多数交易者可能会跌倒。要正确进行这笔交易，你必须关注偏斜。这听起来可能像黑魔法，但实际上只是不同的隐含波动率在多个行权价之间的差异。</p>
<p>如果隐含波动率在行权价越远离平价时越高，那就意味着一些事情。这是我们必须关注的事情。这就像高端品牌冰淇淋和商店品牌冰淇淋之间的差异。在某个时刻，你会对你最喜欢的 Ben and Jerry's 口味说 “不”，无论它多么好。价格是重要的。</p>
<p>耐克的波动率偏斜非常严重。隐含波动率超过 130%。看跌期权的垂直价差被错误定价。买入一个行权价并卖出另一个意味着为多头支付过高的价格，而为空头获得的价格过低。</p>
<p>解决方案：一个中和偏斜的蝴蝶价差。结构如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>买入 63 美元的看跌期权</li>
<li>卖出两份 61 美元的看跌期权</li>
<li>买入 59 美元的看跌期权</li>
</ul>
<p>成本：0.25 美元，宽度为 2 美元的蝴蝶价差。最大利润潜力：1.75 美元。风险明确，目标清晰。</p>
<p>这并不是在押注某种灾难性的崩溃。这是为了在 61 美元的移动上进行布局，正好与预期的移动和机构的看跌期权行权价一致。这是在周三下午执行的，距离到期还有一天。这是经典的财报蝴蝶价差时机。</p>
<h3><strong>周四早晨 - 现实来袭</strong></h3>
<p>耐克在周三收盘后公布了财报。数据看起来不错：每股 0.53 美元，预期为 0.37 美元。创下了巨大的超预期。</p>
<p>周四的开盘价为 59 美元。结果发现，当你在第二大市场销售 21% 更少的鞋子并承认没有解决方案时，投资者并不喜欢。</p>
<p>尽管财报超出预期，股价仍然下跌了七美元。伽马效应全力发挥。卖出那 20000 份看跌期权的做市商不得不进行激进的对冲。这种对冲造成的卖压压倒了任何积极的财报情绪。</p>
<p>蝴蝶价差在其利润区间内开盘。价格在早晨从 59 美元反弹至 60.35 美元。那是退出的时机。</p>
<p>该头寸以 0.63 美元的价格平仓，入场点为 0.25 美元。结果是 140% 的隔夜回报。</p>
<h3><strong>教训 - 规模重于方向</strong></h3>
<p>这笔交易教会了我们关于 Ghost Prints 方法的一个关键点。这些打印并不能预测财报结果。它们揭示了在价格朝伽马方向移动时产生规模的布局。</p>
<p>美光在同一周也公布了财报。该公司超出预期 1.30 美元。股价正好上涨了预期移动的 1 倍。没有伽马压力。没有加速。</p>
<p>耐克超出财报预期。股价下跌幅度超过预期移动的 1 倍。伽马压力放大了下行。这些打印给了我们四个信息：</p>
<ol>
<li>股票代码：耐克 (NKE)</li>
<li>方向：来自大量看跌期权积累的下行偏见</li>
<li>目标：60-64 美元的行权价区间</li>
<li>时间框架：到周五到期</li>
</ol>
<p>交易结构处理了其余的事情。蝴蝶价差中和了波动率偏斜问题。风险保持在 0.25 美元的小范围内。同时，利润潜力保持在 7:1 的不对称状态。</p>
<h3><strong>这对你的交易意味着什么</strong></h3>
<p>我们的 Ghost Prints 并不是魔法，而是机制。当机构在财报前积累 20000 份看跌期权时，做市商通过对冲造成下行压力。如果财报令人失望，甚至只是未能超出高预期，这种压力会加速价格的移动。</p>
<p>你不需要预测财报结果。你需要为如果在伽马方向上发展而放大的移动做好布局。耐克的案例研究完美地展示了这一点。良好的财报，糟糕的反应。我们的方法提前两天揭示了布局。蝴蝶价差以明确的风险捕捉了这一移动。</p>
<p>大多数交易者在事后阅读头条新闻，想知道发生了什么。我们的会员实时看到这一过程，并因此进行了相应的布局。观察与参与之间的差异在于在大众意识到之前看到机构在做什么。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
<p>2026：消费者复苏之年</p>
<p>冰块正在融化：接下来会发生什么</p>
<p>看涨交易成本增加 50%</p>

耐克

<p>耐克最近公布了出色的财报，超出预期 43%，然而股价却下跌。使用 Ghost Prints 方法的交易者通过识别机构的看跌期权头寸获利，这造成了下行压力。采用了蝶式价差策略来中和波动率偏斜，最终实现了 140% 的隔夜回报。关键教训是要关注头寸以放大价格波动，而不是预测财报结果</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Nike recently reported stellar earnings. The company beat by an incredible 43%. The stock crashed anyway. Most traders watching CNBC scratched their heads. Meanwhile, our community walked away with 140% overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克最近公布了出色的财报。该公司超出了预期，增幅达到了惊人的 43%。尽管如此，股价仍然暴跌。大多数在观看 CNBC 的交易者都感到困惑。与此同时，我们的社区在一夜之间获得了 140% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>I want to show you what you can learn from this, and how you can be ready for the next big trade. Let’s walk through the progression.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我想向你展示你可以从中学到什么，以及如何为下一个大交易做好准备。让我们逐步分析。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Setup</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>准备阶段</strong></h3>
</div><p>On Tuesday at 3:38 PM, right before the close, someone made a bet. Not a small one. It was 7,200 put contracts at the $64 strike. Nike was trading at around $66. Earnings were scheduled shortly after the close on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周二下午 3:38，临近收盘时，有人进行了下注。这不是小额下注。是 7200 份行权价为 64 美元的看跌期权。耐克的交易价格大约在 66 美元。财报将在周三收盘后公布。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png"/></p>
<p>This wasn't speculation on bad numbers. This was institutional capital positioning for downside. The kind that knows market maker hedging dynamics create self-fulfilling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是对糟糕数据的投机。这是机构资本为下行做的布局。这种布局知道市场做市商的对冲动态会造成自我实现的压力。</p>
</div><p>It was one of several put option prints, but there was one massive signal. The timeline had begun.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是几笔看跌期权交易中的一笔，但有一个巨大的信号。时间线已经开始。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Pressure Builds</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>压力加大</strong></h3>
</div><p>The day of earnings brought more conviction. Another 8,360 puts at the $60 strike. Price paid: $0.36 per contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财报发布当天，信心更强。又有 8360 份行权价为 60 美元的看跌期权。支付价格：每份合约 0.36 美元。</p>
</div><p>Combined with Tuesday's activity, over 20,000 put contracts accumulated in two days. Between the $64 and $60 strikes. All bought, not sold. All positioned for downside before Nike's after-hours announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结合周二的活动，两天内累计超过 20000 份看跌期权。在 64 美元和 60 美元的行权价之间。全部是买入，而不是卖出。所有的布局都是为了在耐克的盘后公告之前做下行准备。</p>
</div><p>Market makers selling those puts had to hedge. They had to short the stock. Based on the chart, that should have been no big deal. There was a nice uptrend in place. But the gamma mechanics were building massive downside pressure beneath the surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卖出这些看跌期权的做市商必须对冲。他们必须做空股票。根据图表，这本不应该是个大问题。市场上有一个良好的上升趋势。但伽马机制在表面下造成了巨大的下行压力。</p>
</div><p>The price hadn't moved yet, but the trap was set.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格尚未移动，但陷阱已经设好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>The Trade - Navigating Volatility Skew</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>交易 - 应对波动率偏斜</strong></h3>
</div><p>Here's where most traders would have stumbled. To get this trade right, you had to pay attention to the skew. That might sound like black magic, but it is really just the difference in implied volatility across multiple strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里，大多数交易者可能会跌倒。要正确进行这笔交易，你必须关注偏斜。这听起来可能像黑魔法，但实际上只是不同的隐含波动率在多个行权价之间的差异。</p>
</div><p>If implied volatility is getting higher as the strikes go further out-of-the-money, that means something. And that's something we have to pay attention to. It’s like the difference between the cost of premium brand ice cream and the store-brand stuff. At some point, you’re going to simply say “no” to your favorite Ben and Jerry’s flavor no matter how good it is. The price matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果隐含波动率在行权价越远离平价时越高，那就意味着一些事情。这是我们必须关注的事情。这就像高端品牌冰淇淋和商店品牌冰淇淋之间的差异。在某个时刻，你会对你最喜欢的 Ben and Jerry's 口味说 “不”，无论它多么好。价格是重要的。</p>
</div><p>Nike's volatility skew was brutal. Implied volatility sat above 130%. Put verticals were mis-priced. Buying one strike and selling another meant paying too much for the long side and getting too little for the short side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克的波动率偏斜非常严重。隐含波动率超过 130%。看跌期权的垂直价差被错误定价。买入一个行权价并卖出另一个意味着为多头支付过高的价格，而为空头获得的价格过低。</p>
</div><p>The solution: a butterfly spread that neutralizes skew. Here's the structure:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解决方案：一个中和偏斜的蝴蝶价差。结构如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Buy the $63 put</li>
<li>Sell two $61 puts</li>
<li>Buy the $59 put</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>买入 63 美元的看跌期权</li>
<li>卖出两份 61 美元的看跌期权</li>
<li>买入 59 美元的看跌期权</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Cost: $0.25 for a $2 wide butterfly. Maximum profit potential: $1.75. The risk was clearly defined, and the target clearly identified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成本：0.25 美元，宽度为 2 美元的蝴蝶价差。最大利润潜力：1.75 美元。风险明确，目标清晰。</p>
</div><p>This wasn't about betting on some catastrophic collapse. This was about positioning for a move to $61, right in line with the expected move and the institutional put strikes. This was executed on Wednesday afternoon, one day to expiration. That's classic earnings butterfly timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是在押注某种灾难性的崩溃。这是为了在 61 美元的移动上进行布局，正好与预期的移动和机构的看跌期权行权价一致。这是在周三下午执行的，距离到期还有一天。这是经典的财报蝴蝶价差时机。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Thursday Morning - Reality Hits</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>周四早晨 - 现实来袭</strong></h3>
</div><p>Nike reported after the bell on Wednesday. The numbers looked good: $0.53 per share versus the $0.37 expected. A massive beat was recorded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克在周三收盘后公布了财报。数据看起来不错：每股 0.53 美元，预期为 0.37 美元。创下了巨大的超预期。</p>
</div><p>Thursday's opening price was $59. It turns out, investors don’t like it when you sell 21% fewer shoes in your second biggest market and then admit you don’t have a solution in mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四的开盘价为 59 美元。结果发现，当你在第二大市场销售 21% 更少的鞋子并承认没有解决方案时，投资者并不喜欢。</p>
</div><p>The stock gapped down seven dollars despite beating earnings. The gamma effect in full force. Market makers who sold those 20,000 puts had to hedge aggressively. That hedging created selling pressure that overwhelmed any positive earnings sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管财报超出预期，股价仍然下跌了七美元。伽马效应全力发挥。卖出那 20000 份看跌期权的做市商不得不进行激进的对冲。这种对冲造成的卖压压倒了任何积极的财报情绪。</p>
</div><p>The butterfly spread opened inside its profit zone. Price bounced from $59 to $60.35 as the morning progressed. That's the time to exit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蝴蝶价差在其利润区间内开盘。价格在早晨从 59 美元反弹至 60.35 美元。那是退出的时机。</p>
</div><p>The position was closed at $0.63 from an entry point of $0.25. An overnight return of 140% was the result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该头寸以 0.63 美元的价格平仓，入场点为 0.25 美元。结果是 140% 的隔夜回报。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Lesson - Magnitude Over Direction</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>教训 - 规模重于方向</strong></h3>
</div><p>This trade teaches something critical about our Ghost Prints method. The prints don't predict earnings results. They reveal positioning that creates magnitude when the price moves in the gamma direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔交易教会了我们关于 Ghost Prints 方法的一个关键点。这些打印并不能预测财报结果。它们揭示了在价格朝伽马方向移动时产生规模的布局。</p>
</div><p>Micron also reported the same week. The company crushed earnings estimates by $1.30. The stock moved exactly 1x the expected move higher. No gamma pressure. No acceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光在同一周也公布了财报。该公司超出预期 1.30 美元。股价正好上涨了预期移动的 1 倍。没有伽马压力。没有加速。</p>
</div><p>Nike beat earnings. The stock moved greater than the 1x expected move lower. Gamma pressure amplified the downside. These prints gave us four things:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克超出财报预期。股价下跌幅度超过预期移动的 1 倍。伽马压力放大了下行。这些打印给了我们四个信息：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Symbol: Nike (NKE)</li>
<li>Direction: Downside bias from massive put accumulation</li>
<li>Target: $60-$64 strike zone</li>
<li>Timeframe: Through Friday's expiration</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>股票代码：耐克 (NKE)</li>
<li>方向：来自大量看跌期权积累的下行偏见</li>
<li>目标：60-64 美元的行权价区间</li>
<li>时间框架：到周五到期</li>
</ol>
</div><p>The trade structure handled the rest. The butterfly spread neutralized the volatility skew problem. Risk stayed small at $0.25. Meanwhile, the profit potential stayed asymmetric at 7:1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易结构处理了其余的事情。蝴蝶价差中和了波动率偏斜问题。风险保持在 0.25 美元的小范围内。同时，利润潜力保持在 7:1 的不对称状态。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What This Means For Your Trading</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>这对你的交易意味着什么</strong></h3>
</div><p>Our Ghost Prints aren't magic, they're mechanics. When institutions accumulate 20,000 put contracts before earnings, market makers create downside pressure through hedging. If earnings disappoint or even just fail to exceed elevated expectations, that pressure accelerates the move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的 Ghost Prints 并不是魔法，而是机制。当机构在财报前积累 20000 份看跌期权时，做市商通过对冲造成下行压力。如果财报令人失望，甚至只是未能超出高预期，这种压力会加速价格的移动。</p>
</div><p>You don't need to predict the earnings result. You need to position for the amplified move if it develops in the gamma direction. The Nike case study shows this perfectly. Good earnings, bad reaction. Our method revealed the positioning two days early. The butterfly spread captured the move with defined risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不需要预测财报结果。你需要为如果在伽马方向上发展而放大的移动做好布局。耐克的案例研究完美地展示了这一点。良好的财报，糟糕的反应。我们的方法提前两天揭示了布局。蝴蝶价差以明确的风险捕捉了这一移动。</p>
</div><p>Most traders read headlines after the fact and wonder what happened. Our members saw it building in real-time and thus positioned accordingly. The difference between watching and participating starts with seeing what institutions are doing before the crowd catches on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数交易者在事后阅读头条新闻，想知道发生了什么。我们的会员实时看到这一过程，并因此进行了相应的布局。观察与参与之间的差异在于在大众意识到之前看到机构在做什么。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
</div><p>2026: A Year For The Consumer Comeback</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026：消费者复苏之年</p>
</div><p>The Ice Cube Is Melting: Here's What Happens Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冰块正在融化：接下来会发生什么</p>
</div><p>Bullish Trades Cost 50% More</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看涨交易成本增加 50%</p>
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耐克展示了如何通过收益交易来获利