<h2>默克近期表现如何影响估值故事</h2>
<p>随着默克的股价徘徊在 100 美元以上，许多投资者在思考他们是在看一个稳健的长期复合增长股，还是一个已经将大部分上涨空间定价的股票。近期的业绩数据为框定这一估值辩论提供了有用的起点。</p>
<p>在过去一周，默克的股价上涨了约 0.8%，在过去一个月中增加了更强劲的 6.4%，而年初至今的回报则较为温和，为 1.9%。进一步观察，过去一年该股的回报为 7.0%，五年内的涨幅为 55.0%，这突显了一个能够回报耐心股东的企业，尽管三年回报约为-1.0% 显示出这段旅程并不完全平稳。</p>
<p>这些混合的回报特征，长期表现强劲但中期波动，通常表明市场仍在重新校准对默克增长管道和风险特征的预期。这正是为什么在这里以基本面为基础的结构化估值分析特别有用。</p>
<p>了解为什么默克过去一年的 7.0% 回报落后于同行。</p>
<h3>方法一：默克折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测未来现金流并将其折现回今天的现值来估算公司的价值。对于默克而言，二阶段自由现金流到股东的方法从其过去 12 个月的自由现金流约 131 亿美元开始，然后叠加分析师的预测和长期外推。</p>
<p>分析师预计默克的自由现金流到 2026 年将上升至约 200 亿美元，到 2028 年将达到 264 亿美元。根据 Simply Wall St 的估计，进一步的预测显示到 2035 年将达到约 255 亿美元，随着增长的放缓。将这些现金流向前滚动并折现回去，模型得出的内在价值约为每股 215 美元。</p>
<p>随着股票交易价格刚刚超过 100 美元，DCF 输出暗示大约 53.0% 的公允价值折扣。这表明如果现金流轨迹大致如预期那样实现，则存在较大的安全边际。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明，默克被低估了 53.0%。在您的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪此信息，或发现基于现金流的 913 只被低估股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 MRK 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出默克的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法二：默克的市盈率与收益</h3>
<p>对于像默克这样成熟且盈利的企业，市盈率（PE）是一个自然的衡量标准，因为它将投资者支付的价格直接与公司的当前盈利能力联系起来。一般来说，增长较快且风险较低的公司可以合理化更高的市盈率，而增长较慢或不确定性较高的公司通常需要较低、更保守的倍数。</p>
<p>默克目前的市盈率约为 13.2 倍，明显低于制药行业平均的约 19.8 倍和同行组的平均约 18.3 倍。仅从这些简单的比较来看，该股相对于其行业和竞争对手显得便宜。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 的公允比率进一步深化了这一点。它是对默克市盈率应有水平的专有估计，经过对其盈利增长前景、盈利能力、行业、市场资本和关键风险的调整。这使得它比简单的同行或行业比较更具针对性。对于默克，公允比率约为 30.9 倍，远高于当前的 13.2 倍倍数，这表明市场价格可能相对于这些基本面较低。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:MRK 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1463 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>提升您的决策能力：选择您的默克叙事</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向您介绍叙事，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单工具，可以让您将清晰的故事与数字相结合。您可以将对默克产品、竞争地位和风险的看法与特定的收入、收益和利润率预测联系起来。该平台随后将这些输入转化为公允价值，您可以与今天的价格进行比较，以决定是买入、持有还是卖出。它还会在新消息或收益到来时动态更新这些叙事。例如，一个看涨的默克投资者可能会建立一个接近 141 美元分析师目标的叙事，假设强劲的管道吸收和稳健的利润率。而一个更谨慎的投资者可能会倾向于 82 美元的看跌案例，假设增长放缓和更多的专利压力，每个人都使用相同的框架，但不同的假设来得出他们自己基于数据的对股票真实价值的看法。</p>
<p>您认为默克的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:MRK 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p><em>本文由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也不考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
<p>移动基础设施用于国防和灾难</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是人形机器人，而是能够在 30 分钟内在任何地方提供 5G、ISR 和雷达的全自动塔。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>

默克

<p>默克的股价约为 100 美元，促使投资者评估其长期价值。最近的表现显示出混合的回报，过去一年上涨了 7.0%，五年内上涨了 55.0%。折现现金流分析表明，默克被低估了 53.0%，每股内在价值为 215 美元。市盈率也显示出低估，默克的交易市盈率为 13.2 倍，而行业平均为 19.8 倍。投资者被鼓励考虑默克的增长管道和风险特征以进行估值</p>

<h2>How Merck's Recent Performance Frames the Valuation Story</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>默克近期表现如何影响估值故事</h2>
</div><p>With Merck’s share price hovering just above the 100 dollar mark, many investors are wondering whether they are looking at a solid long term compounder or a stock that has already priced in most of its upside. The recent performance numbers offer a useful starting point for framing that valuation debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着默克的股价徘徊在 100 美元以上，许多投资者在思考他们是在看一个稳健的长期复合增长股，还是一个已经将大部分上涨空间定价的股票。近期的业绩数据为框定这一估值辩论提供了有用的起点。</p>
</div><p>Over the last week, Merck has inched up around 0.8%, adding to a stronger 6.4% gain over the past month and a more modest 1.9% return year to date. Stretch that lens out further, and the stock’s 7.0% return over the last year and 55.0% gain over five years highlight a business that has rewarded patient shareholders, even if the 3 year return of around minus 1.0% shows that the ride has not been perfectly smooth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，默克的股价上涨了约 0.8%，在过去一个月中增加了更强劲的 6.4%，而年初至今的回报则较为温和，为 1.9%。进一步观察，过去一年该股的回报为 7.0%，五年内的涨幅为 55.0%，这突显了一个能够回报耐心股东的企业，尽管三年回报约为-1.0% 显示出这段旅程并不完全平稳。</p>
</div><p>Those mixed return profiles, strong over the long run but bumpy in the medium term, often signal that the market is still recalibrating its expectations around Merck’s growth pipeline and risk profile. That is exactly why a structured look at valuation, grounded in fundamentals rather than short term price swings, is particularly useful here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些混合的回报特征，长期表现强劲但中期波动，通常表明市场仍在重新校准对默克增长管道和风险特征的预期。这正是为什么在这里以基本面为基础的结构化估值分析特别有用。</p>
</div><p>Find out why Merck's 7.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解为什么默克过去一年的 7.0% 回报落后于同行。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Merck Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法一：默克折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today in present value terms. For Merck, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach starts from its last twelve month Free Cash Flow of about $13.1 billion and then layers on analyst forecasts and longer term extrapolations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测未来现金流并将其折现回今天的现值来估算公司的价值。对于默克而言，二阶段自由现金流到股东的方法从其过去 12 个月的自由现金流约 131 亿美元开始，然后叠加分析师的预测和长期外推。</p>
</div><p>Analysts see Merck’s Free Cash Flow rising to roughly $20.0 billion by 2026 and $26.4 billion by 2028. Further projections, based on Simply Wall St estimates, point to around $25.5 billion by 2035 as growth moderates. Rolling these cash flows forward and discounting them back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $215 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计默克的自由现金流到 2026 年将上升至约 200 亿美元，到 2028 年将达到 264 亿美元。根据 Simply Wall St 的估计，进一步的预测显示到 2035 年将达到约 255 亿美元，随着增长的放缓。将这些现金流向前滚动并折现回去，模型得出的内在价值约为每股 215 美元。</p>
</div><p>With the stock trading just above $100, the DCF output implies roughly a 53.0% discount to fair value. This suggests a wide margin of safety if the cash flow trajectory materializes broadly as expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着股票交易价格刚刚超过 100 美元，DCF 输出暗示大约 53.0% 的公允价值折扣。这表明如果现金流轨迹大致如预期那样实现，则存在较大的安全边际。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Merck is undervalued by 53.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 913 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明，默克被低估了 53.0%。在您的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪此信息，或发现基于现金流的 913 只被低估股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>MRK Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 MRK 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Merck.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出默克的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Merck Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法二：默克的市盈率与收益</h3>
</div><p>For a mature, profitable business like Merck, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a natural yardstick because it links what investors pay directly to the company’s current earnings power. In general, faster growing and lower risk companies can justify higher PE ratios, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually calls for a lower, more conservative multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像默克这样成熟且盈利的企业，市盈率（PE）是一个自然的衡量标准，因为它将投资者支付的价格直接与公司的当前盈利能力联系起来。一般来说，增长较快且风险较低的公司可以合理化更高的市盈率，而增长较慢或不确定性较高的公司通常需要较低、更保守的倍数。</p>
</div><p>Merck currently trades on a PE of about 13.2x, which is meaningfully below both the Pharmaceuticals industry average of roughly 19.8x and a peer group average near 18.3x. On those simple comparisons alone, the stock looks inexpensive relative to its sector and competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>默克目前的市盈率约为 13.2 倍，明显低于制药行业平均的约 19.8 倍和同行组的平均约 18.3 倍。仅从这些简单的比较来看，该股相对于其行业和竞争对手显得便宜。</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio takes this a step further. It is a proprietary estimate of what Merck’s PE <em>should</em> be, after adjusting for its earnings growth outlook, profitability, industry, market cap and key risks. This makes it more tailored than blunt peer or industry comparisons. For Merck, the Fair Ratio is around 30.9x, well above the current 13.2x multiple, which suggests that the market price may be low relative to these fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 的公允比率进一步深化了这一点。它是对默克市盈率应有水平的专有估计，经过对其盈利增长前景、盈利能力、行业、市场资本和关键风险的调整。这使得它比简单的同行或行业比较更具针对性。对于默克，公允比率约为 30.9 倍，远高于当前的 13.2 倍倍数，这表明市场价格可能相对于这些基本面较低。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:MRK PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:MRK 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1463 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1463 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Merck Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升您的决策能力：选择您的默克叙事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you attach a clear story to your numbers. You can link what you believe about Merck’s products, competitive position and risks to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins. The platform then translates those inputs into a Fair Value you can compare with today’s price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. It also keeps updating those Narratives dynamically as new news or earnings arrive. For example, a bullish Merck investor might build a Narrative closer to the 141 dollar analyst target with strong pipeline uptake and resilient margins. A more cautious investor might lean toward the 82 dollar bear case that assumes slower growth and more patent pressure, with each using the same framework but different assumptions to reach their own, data driven view of what the stock is really worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向您介绍叙事，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单工具，可以让您将清晰的故事与数字相结合。您可以将对默克产品、竞争地位和风险的看法与特定的收入、收益和利润率预测联系起来。该平台随后将这些输入转化为公允价值，您可以与今天的价格进行比较，以决定是买入、持有还是卖出。它还会在新消息或收益到来时动态更新这些叙事。例如，一个看涨的默克投资者可能会建立一个接近 141 美元分析师目标的叙事，假设强劲的管道吸收和稳健的利润率。而一个更谨慎的投资者可能会倾向于 82 美元的看跌案例，假设增长放缓和更多的专利压力，每个人都使用相同的框架，但不同的假设来得出他们自己基于数据的对股票真实价值的看法。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Merck? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您认为默克的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/9bafee5c-a072-412f-b915-e473eeec2b14/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:MRK 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NYSE:MRK 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>本文由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也不考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
</div><p>Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>移动基础设施用于国防和灾难</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是人形机器人，而是能够在 30 分钟内在任何地方提供 5G、ISR 和雷达的全自动塔。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>
</div>

默克的股价在 100 美元左右是否在 2025 年提供长期投资价值？