<ul>
<li>如果你在考虑诺福克南方（Norfolk Southern）每股约 291 美元的股票是否仍然值得投资，或者这列火车是否已经离站，那么这篇文章适合你。</li>
<li>该股票年初至今上涨了 24.2%，过去一年上涨了 27.1%，即使在本周经历了 1.9% 的小幅下跌和过去一个月的 3.4% 涨幅。这表明市场仍在积极重新评估其长期前景。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在诺福克南方正在进行的安全和网络效率举措，以及旨在升级基础设施和提高服务可靠性的多年资本计划。同时，美国铁路行业的监管审查和运营变更使投资者的注意力始终集中在这些战略举措如何重塑成本和长期增长上。</li>
<li>尽管如此，诺福克南方在我们的估值检查中仅得分 2 分（满分 6 分）。我们将看看传统估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更细致的方式判断它是否真的具有良好的价值。</li>
</ul>
<p>诺福克南方在我们的估值检查中仅得 2/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法一：诺福克南方折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的价值，来估算公司的价值。</p>
<p>对于诺福克南方，Simply Wall St 的两阶段自由现金流模型以过去 12 个月的自由现金流约为 14.1 亿美元为起点，并结合分析师对未来几年的预测，然后进一步推算。在这种方法下，预计诺福克南方的自由现金流到 2029 年将上升至约 28 亿美元，并假设到 2035 年将继续增长，基于逐渐减缓的增长率。</p>
<p>当所有这些未来现金流折现回今天时，模型得出的内在价值约为每股 218 美元。当前股价约为 291 美元，DCF 模型表明该股票的交易价格大约比这一现金流预期高出 33.6%。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明诺福克南方可能被高估了 33.6%。发现 913 只被低估的股票或创建自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的诺福克南方折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出诺福克南方的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法二：诺福克南方市盈率与收益</h3>
<p>对于像诺福克南方这样的盈利公司，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者是否为每一美元当前收益支付合理价格的实用方法。什么算是正常或公平的市盈率取决于收益预期的增长速度和风险程度，通常更高的增长和更低的风险可以合理化更高的倍数。</p>
<p>诺福克南方目前的市盈率约为 22.1 倍。这略低于其同行平均水平约 22.5 倍，远低于更广泛的运输行业平均水平约 31.1 倍。乍一看，这可能使得该股票看起来相对保守。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 为诺福克南方设定的公允比率为 18.1 倍。这是考虑到其特定收益增长前景、风险特征、利润率、行业和市值后，股票可能交易的市盈率水平。这个公允比率比简单的同行或行业比较更具针对性，因为它调整了公司的基本面，而不是假设所有铁路或运输股票都应获得相同的估值。将 18.1 倍的公允比率与当前的 22.1 倍市盈率进行比较，表明市场对诺福克南方的定价略高于其基本面所暗示的水平。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：NSC 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1463 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的诺福克南方叙述</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向你介绍叙述（Narratives），这是一种简单的方法，可以将你对诺福克南方未来的清晰故事与自己的收入、收益、利润率和公允价值数字相结合。然后，你可以将该公允价值与今天的股价进行比较，以帮助你决定是买入、持有还是卖出。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 的社区页面上的叙述将你对公司的看法，例如对 PSR 2.0 效率、合并结果或货运需求的信心，转化为一个结构化的预测，将商业故事与财务模型和明确的公允价值估算联系起来。所有这些都在一个数百万投资者使用的工具中，并随着新消息或收益的到来自动更新。</p>
<p>例如，一个诺福克南方的叙述可能更加乐观，假设合并获得批准，EPS 强劲复合增长，并证明公允价值接近最近分析师目标的高端，约 339 美元。一个更谨慎的叙述可能会关注监管风险、较软的交易量和利润压力，指向公允价值接近约 235 美元的低端。每个叙述的公允价值与实时股价之间的差距，帮助每位投资者判断该股票是否仍然看起来有吸引力或已经完全定价。</p>
<p>你认为诺福克南方的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>纽约证券交易所：NSC 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不意图作为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
<p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达，随时随地。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>

诺福克南方

<p>诺福克南方的股票目前价格为 291 美元，根据折现现金流分析，该股票被认为被高估，其内在价值估计为每股 218 美元。该股票的市盈率为 22.1 倍，高于其合理市盈率 18.1 倍，暗示其被高估。尽管公司在安全和效率方面采取了措施，并有监管审查和资本计划，但该股票的基本面可能无法证明其当前价格的合理性。建议投资者考虑其他估值方法，并探索其他投资机会</p>

<ul>
<li>If you are wondering whether Norfolk Southern at around $291 a share is still worth climbing aboard or if the train has already left the station, this piece is for you.</li>
<li>The stock is up 24.2% year to date and 27.1% over the last year, even after a recent 1.9% dip this week and a 3.4% gain over the past month. This hints that the market is still actively reassessing its long term prospects.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have focused on Norfolk Southern’s ongoing safety and network efficiency initiatives, alongside multi year capital plans aimed at upgrading infrastructure and improving service reliability. At the same time, regulatory scrutiny and operational changes across the U.S. rail industry have kept investor attention firmly on how these strategic moves could reshape costs and long term growth.</li>
<li>Despite all that, Norfolk Southern only scores a 2 out of 6 on our valuation checks. We will look at what traditional valuation methods say about the stock and then finish with a more nuanced way to judge whether it is truly good value.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果你在考虑诺福克南方（Norfolk Southern）每股约 291 美元的股票是否仍然值得投资，或者这列火车是否已经离站，那么这篇文章适合你。</li>
<li>该股票年初至今上涨了 24.2%，过去一年上涨了 27.1%，即使在本周经历了 1.9% 的小幅下跌和过去一个月的 3.4% 涨幅。这表明市场仍在积极重新评估其长期前景。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在诺福克南方正在进行的安全和网络效率举措，以及旨在升级基础设施和提高服务可靠性的多年资本计划。同时，美国铁路行业的监管审查和运营变更使投资者的注意力始终集中在这些战略举措如何重塑成本和长期增长上。</li>
<li>尽管如此，诺福克南方在我们的估值检查中仅得分 2 分（满分 6 分）。我们将看看传统估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更细致的方式判断它是否真的具有良好的价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Norfolk Southern scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺福克南方在我们的估值检查中仅得 2/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Norfolk Southern Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法一：诺福克南方折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value using an appropriate rate of return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的价值，来估算公司的价值。</p>
</div><p>For Norfolk Southern, Simply Wall St’s 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts with last twelve months Free Cash Flow of about $1.41 billion and incorporates analyst forecasts for the next few years, then extrapolates further out. Under this approach, Norfolk Southern’s Free Cash Flow is projected to rise to roughly $2.80 billion by 2029, with additional growth assumed through 2035 based on gradually moderating growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于诺福克南方，Simply Wall St 的两阶段自由现金流模型以过去 12 个月的自由现金流约为 14.1 亿美元为起点，并结合分析师对未来几年的预测，然后进一步推算。在这种方法下，预计诺福克南方的自由现金流到 2029 年将上升至约 28 亿美元，并假设到 2035 年将继续增长，基于逐渐减缓的增长率。</p>
</div><p>When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $218 per share. With the current share price around $291, the DCF suggests the stock is trading at roughly a 33.6% premium to this cash flow outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当所有这些未来现金流折现回今天时，模型得出的内在价值约为每股 218 美元。当前股价约为 291 美元，DCF 模型表明该股票的交易价格大约比这一现金流预期高出 33.6%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Norfolk Southern may be overvalued by 33.6%. Discover 913 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明诺福克南方可能被高估了 33.6%。发现 913 只被低估的股票或创建自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>NSC Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的诺福克南方折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Norfolk Southern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出诺福克南方的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Norfolk Southern Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法二：诺福克南方市盈率与收益</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies like Norfolk Southern, the Price to Earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. What counts as a normal or fair PE depends on how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are, with higher growth and lower risk generally justifying a higher multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像诺福克南方这样的盈利公司，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者是否为每一美元当前收益支付合理价格的实用方法。什么算是正常或公平的市盈率取决于收益预期的增长速度和风险程度，通常更高的增长和更低的风险可以合理化更高的倍数。</p>
</div><p>Norfolk Southern currently trades on a PE of about 22.1x. That is slightly below its peer group average of roughly 22.5x and well below the broader Transportation industry average of around 31.1x. At first glance, this can make the shares look relatively restrained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺福克南方目前的市盈率约为 22.1 倍。这略低于其同行平均水平约 22.5 倍，远低于更广泛的运输行业平均水平约 31.1 倍。乍一看，这可能使得该股票看起来相对保守。</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Norfolk Southern is 18.1x. This is the PE level the stock might trade on after accounting for its specific earnings growth outlook, risk profile, profit margins, industry, and market capitalization. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own fundamentals rather than assuming all rail or transport stocks deserve the same valuation. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 18.1x with the current PE of 22.1x suggests the market is pricing Norfolk Southern somewhat above what its fundamentals alone would imply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 为诺福克南方设定的公允比率为 18.1 倍。这是考虑到其特定收益增长前景、风险特征、利润率、行业和市值后，股票可能交易的市盈率水平。这个公允比率比简单的同行或行业比较更具针对性，因为它调整了公司的基本面，而不是假设所有铁路或运输股票都应获得相同的估值。将 18.1 倍的公允比率与当前的 22.1 倍市盈率进行比较，表明市场对诺福克南方的定价略高于其基本面所暗示的水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:NSC PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：NSC 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1463 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1463 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Norfolk Southern Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的诺福克南方叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way for you to attach a clear story about Norfolk Southern’s future to your own numbers for revenue, earnings, margins, and fair value. You can then compare that fair value to today’s share price to help you decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向你介绍叙述（Narratives），这是一种简单的方法，可以将你对诺福克南方未来的清晰故事与自己的收入、收益、利润率和公允价值数字相结合。然后，你可以将该公允价值与今天的股价进行比较，以帮助你决定是买入、持有还是卖出。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative on Simply Wall St’s Community page turns your view of the company, such as confidence in PSR 2.0 efficiencies, merger outcomes, or freight demand, into a structured forecast that links the business story to a financial model and an explicit fair value estimate. All of this sits inside a tool used by millions of investors and is automatically updated as new news or earnings arrive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 的社区页面上的叙述将你对公司的看法，例如对 PSR 2.0 效率、合并结果或货运需求的信心，转化为一个结构化的预测，将商业故事与财务模型和明确的公允价值估算联系起来。所有这些都在一个数百万投资者使用的工具中，并随着新消息或收益的到来自动更新。</p>
</div><p>For example, one Norfolk Southern Narrative might be more bullish, assuming the merger is approved, EPS compounds strongly and justifies a fair value closer to the higher end of recent analyst targets around $339. A more cautious Narrative could focus on regulatory risk, softer volumes, and margin pressure, pointing to a fair value nearer the low end of about $235. The spread between each Narrative’s fair value and the live share price then helps each investor judge whether the stock still looks attractive or already fully priced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一个诺福克南方的叙述可能更加乐观，假设合并获得批准，EPS 强劲复合增长，并证明公允价值接近最近分析师目标的高端，约 339 美元。一个更谨慎的叙述可能会关注监管风险、较软的交易量和利润压力，指向公允价值接近约 235 美元的低端。每个叙述的公允价值与实时股价之间的差距，帮助每位投资者判断该股票是否仍然看起来有吸引力或已经完全定价。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Norfolk Southern? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为诺福克南方的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/cdbec2ae-e70e-405e-bf95-2fe500270b34/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:NSC 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约证券交易所：NSC 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不意图作为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
</div><p>Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达，随时随地。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>
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在安全和效率举措之后，诺福克南方的 2025 年反弹是否已经超越了其基本面？