<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h2>5 万亿美元的基础设施建设</h2>
<p>全球建设人工智能基础设施的竞争加速。预计资本支出总额现已超过 5 万亿美元，相当于德国的年 GDP。这一规模对债券投资者至关重要：预计其中约 1.5 万亿美元将通过高等级信用市场流入，其余部分则通过私人市场和超大规模公司的现金流融资。市场参与者预计，包括亚马逊、Meta、微软、甲骨文和谷歌在内的大型科技公司将主导发行。因此，企业债券指数的组成可能会倾向于更高质量的信用。这一变化可能会增强市场的整体信用状况，尽管它也会增加对少数大型发行者的集中度。</p>
<h2>市场吸收与利差动态</h2>
<p>现在的问题是债券市场是否能够吸收如此规模的发行。到目前为止，迹象是积极的。最近与人工智能相关的债券交易超额认购——这意味着投资者需求远远超过可用债券——得益于对高质量发行者的强烈需求。发行者提供了适度的让步，这有助于推动强劲的认购。</p>
<p>尽管如此，关于利差影响的辩论仍在继续。一些我们合作的投资经理认为，随着新供应的增加，利差将会小幅扩大；而其他人则预期会有更大的波动。历史先例表明，来自银行或电信行业的大规模发行趋势并未导致系统性问题。</p>
<p>一个最近的例子说明了这一细微差别：Blue Owl 与 Meta 的合资企业，旨在为超大规模数据中心提供资金，其定价比 Meta 的一般债务高出约 100 个基点，基于发行时的市场定价。此后，该差异已缩小，突显出市场定价在投资者对新结构感到舒适时的快速适应。</p>
<h2>信用质量与资产生命周期问题</h2>
<p>大多数与人工智能相关的借款人拥有足够强大的资产负债表来应对杠杆。评级机构不太可能将此类发行视为实质性风险，除了个别情况下，由于发行者特定原因导致的利差已经扩大。然而，债务是否对超大规模公司的资产负债表具有有效索赔权，细节将至关重要。资产支持的特殊目的工具可能具有吸引力，但基础资产的独特风险使得选择性和深厚的资产级专业知识变得至关重要。</p>
<p>例如，运行人工智能系统的高性能芯片占数据中心价值的约三分之二，但其价值迅速下降。这些芯片的折旧率很快，新芯片周期加快，提出了这些设施将保持其价值多长时间以及这对长期回报意味着什么的问题。</p>
<p>一些超大规模公司正在谨慎应对——在现金流内资助资本支出，并依赖外包合作伙伴保持财务灵活性。这种保守反映了对技术更替和数据中心转售潜力的不确定性。</p>
<h2>结构与市场细分的演变</h2>
<p>融资格局在不同细分市场中也在分化。结构性信用经理指出，商业房地产市场对人工智能数据中心贷款的风险溢价高于类似的资产支持交易，这表明投资者对基础资产的评估不均衡。</p>
<p>与此同时，主动管理者正在调整投资组合以应对这一过渡。投资者认为，发行激增可能会在一段时间内对收益率施加压力，尽管对压力程度的看法各不相同。大多数人认为这种压力是温和到中等的，但并不严重。其他人则将其视为在新交易和结构性信用中选择性增加的机会，即使这会在经理之间造成短期业绩差异。</p>
<h2>投资者影响</h2>
<p>在我们合作的经理中，人工智能基础设施建设被广泛视为债券市场的持久主题——规模庞大，但在初始阶段通常被视为可控。许多经理提到强大的资产负债表、深厚的投资者需求和灵活的融资选项是市场能够吸收发行激增的原因。</p>
<p>然而，许多人认为，长期供应可能需要让步，这可能会对利差施加一些上行压力。这些机会如何以及何时出现是一个活跃的辩论领域，经理们在时机、结构和发行者选择上存在分歧。</p>
<p>随着对资本的需求增加，许多人预计会增加表外结构，其中交易质量由运营商和出租方的合同义务支持。经理在评估这些义务在各种情景下的持久性方面的方法各不相同。</p>
<p>最终，许多市场参与者预计，流动性投资级市场将从以金融部门为主导，演变为更平衡的组合，其中包括更大的科技成分。对于多经理投资组合而言，这一过渡可能会根据经理如何应对集中度、结构和资产生命周期风险而带来挑战和机遇。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美国通胀在关键领域趋于温和</p>
<p>美联储的降息周期是否即将结束？</p>
<p>美国经济在可能的美联储降息前显示出混合信号</p>

META

<p>全球人工智能基础设施的建设预计超过 5 万亿美元，这对债券市场产生了显著影响。像亚马逊、Meta 和谷歌这样的主要科技公司预计将主导债券发行，这可能改善市场的信用状况。投资者对高质量发行人的需求强劲，但对利差影响和资产寿命风险的担忧依然存在。市场正在适应新的结构，对长期回报和收益压力的看法各不相同。债券市场向科技的转变为投资者带来了挑战和机遇</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h2>The $5 trillion buildout</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5 万亿美元的基础设施建设</h2>
</div><p>The global race to build AI infrastructure has accelerated sharply. Estimated capital expenditures now total more than $5 trillion, equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany. That magnitude matters for bond investors: roughly $1.5 trillion of this is expected to flow through high-grade credit markets, with the remainder financed via private markets, and cashflows of the hyperscalers. Managers anticipate major technology companies —including Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Google—to dominate issuance, according to market participants. As a result, the composition of corporate bond indices may tilt toward higher-quality credits. This shift could strengthen the market’s overall credit profile, even as it increases concentration in a handful of large issuers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球建设人工智能基础设施的竞争加速。预计资本支出总额现已超过 5 万亿美元，相当于德国的年 GDP。这一规模对债券投资者至关重要：预计其中约 1.5 万亿美元将通过高等级信用市场流入，其余部分则通过私人市场和超大规模公司的现金流融资。市场参与者预计，包括亚马逊、Meta、微软、甲骨文和谷歌在内的大型科技公司将主导发行。因此，企业债券指数的组成可能会倾向于更高质量的信用。这一变化可能会增强市场的整体信用状况，尽管它也会增加对少数大型发行者的集中度。</p>
</div><h2>Market absorption and spread dynamics</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场吸收与利差动态</h2>
</div><p>The question now is whether the bond market can absorb this scale of issuance. So far, signs are constructive. Recent AI-related bond deals have been well oversubscribed—meaning investor demand far exceeds the bonds available—supported by strong appetite for high-quality issuers. Issuers are offering modest concessions, which have helped drive the strong uptake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的问题是债券市场是否能够吸收如此规模的发行。到目前为止，迹象是积极的。最近与人工智能相关的债券交易超额认购——这意味着投资者需求远远超过可用债券——得益于对高质量发行者的强烈需求。发行者提供了适度的让步，这有助于推动强劲的认购。</p>
</div><p>Still, the debate on spread impact remains open. Some investment managers we work with see single-digit basis-point widening as new supply builds; others anticipate larger moves. Historical precedent has seen large issuance trends previously from banking or telecoms not driving systematic issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，关于利差影响的辩论仍在继续。一些我们合作的投资经理认为，随着新供应的增加，利差将会小幅扩大；而其他人则预期会有更大的波动。历史先例表明，来自银行或电信行业的大规模发行趋势并未导致系统性问题。</p>
</div><p>One recent example illustrates the nuance: the Blue Owl–Meta joint venture, created to fund a hyperscale data center, priced about 100 basis points wider than Meta’s general obligations, based on market pricing at issuance. That differential has since narrowed, underscoring how quickly market pricing adapts as investors grow comfortable with new structures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个最近的例子说明了这一细微差别：Blue Owl 与 Meta 的合资企业，旨在为超大规模数据中心提供资金，其定价比 Meta 的一般债务高出约 100 个基点，基于发行时的市场定价。此后，该差异已缩小，突显出市场定价在投资者对新结构感到舒适时的快速适应。</p>
</div><h2>Credit quality and asset-life questions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>信用质量与资产生命周期问题</h2>
</div><p>Most AI-related borrowers have balance sheets strong enough to handle the leverage. Rating agencies are unlikely to view this issuance as materially risky, aside from select cases where spreads have already widened for issuer-specific reasons. However, the details will matter substantially as to whether the debt raised has effective claims on the balance sheets of the hyperscalers. Asset-backed special purpose vehicles may be attractive, but the distinct risks in the underlying assets make selectivity and deep asset-level expertise essential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数与人工智能相关的借款人拥有足够强大的资产负债表来应对杠杆。评级机构不太可能将此类发行视为实质性风险，除了个别情况下，由于发行者特定原因导致的利差已经扩大。然而，债务是否对超大规模公司的资产负债表具有有效索赔权，细节将至关重要。资产支持的特殊目的工具可能具有吸引力，但基础资产的独特风险使得选择性和深厚的资产级专业知识变得至关重要。</p>
</div><p>For example, high-powered chips that run AI systems make up about two-thirds of a data center’s value, but lose their worth quickly. Depreciation rates for these chips are fast and the new chip cycles have sped up, raising questions about how long these facilities will hold their value and what that means for long-term returns</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，运行人工智能系统的高性能芯片占数据中心价值的约三分之二，但其价值迅速下降。这些芯片的折旧率很快，新芯片周期加快，提出了这些设施将保持其价值多长时间以及这对长期回报意味着什么的问题。</p>
</div><p>Some hyperscalers are responding cautiously—funding capex within cash flow and relying on outsourced partners to maintain financial flexibility. This conservatism reflects uncertainty over both technological turnover and data center resale potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些超大规模公司正在谨慎应对——在现金流内资助资本支出，并依赖外包合作伙伴保持财务灵活性。这种保守反映了对技术更替和数据中心转售潜力的不确定性。</p>
</div><h2>Evolving structures and market segments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结构与市场细分的演变</h2>
</div><p>The financing landscape is also diverging across segments. Structured credit managers note that the commercial real estate market is assigning higher risk premiums to AI data-center loans than similar asset-backed deals, suggesting investors are evaluating the underlying assets unevenly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>融资格局在不同细分市场中也在分化。结构性信用经理指出，商业房地产市场对人工智能数据中心贷款的风险溢价高于类似的资产支持交易，这表明投资者对基础资产的评估不均衡。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, active managers are adjusting portfolios to navigate this transition. Investors see the surge in issuance as likely to keep yields under pressure for a while, with differing opinions on how much. Most see this pressure as mild to moderate, but not severe. Others view it as a chance to add selectively in new deals and structured credit, even if it creates short-term performance differences across managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，主动管理者正在调整投资组合以应对这一过渡。投资者认为，发行激增可能会在一段时间内对收益率施加压力，尽管对压力程度的看法各不相同。大多数人认为这种压力是温和到中等的，但并不严重。其他人则将其视为在新交易和结构性信用中选择性增加的机会，即使这会在经理之间造成短期业绩差异。</p>
</div><h2>Investor implications</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者影响</h2>
</div><p>Across the managers we work with, the AI buildout is widely viewed as a lasting theme for bond markets—large in scale but generally seen as manageable in the initial stages. Strong balance sheets, deep investor demand, and flexible financing options are cited by many managers as reasons the market can absorb the surge in issuance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们合作的经理中，人工智能基础设施建设被广泛视为债券市场的持久主题——规模庞大，但在初始阶段通常被视为可控。许多经理提到强大的资产负债表、深厚的投资者需求和灵活的融资选项是市场能够吸收发行激增的原因。</p>
</div><p>The longer-term supply, though, is viewed by many as likely to require concessions, potentially putting some upward pressure on spreads. How and when those opportunities emerge is an area of active debate, with managers differing on timing, structure, and issuer selection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，许多人认为，长期供应可能需要让步，这可能会对利差施加一些上行压力。这些机会如何以及何时出现是一个活跃的辩论领域，经理们在时机、结构和发行者选择上存在分歧。</p>
</div><p>As more capital is required, many expect an increase in off-balance sheet structures, where deal quality is supported by contractual obligations by the operators and lessors. Manager approaches vary in how they assess the durability of these obligations under a variety of scenarios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着对资本的需求增加，许多人预计会增加表外结构，其中交易质量由运营商和出租方的合同义务支持。经理在评估这些义务在各种情景下的持久性方面的方法各不相同。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, liquid investment grade markets are expected by many market participants to evolve from being dominated by the financial sector toward a more balanced mix that includes a larger technology component. For multi-manager portfolios, this transition is likely to create both challenges and opportunities, depending on how managers navigate concentration, structure, and asset-life risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，许多市场参与者预计，流动性投资级市场将从以金融部门为主导，演变为更平衡的组合，其中包括更大的科技成分。对于多经理投资组合而言，这一过渡可能会根据经理如何应对集中度、结构和资产生命周期风险而带来挑战和机遇。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国通胀在关键领域趋于温和</p>
</div><p>Is The Fed’s Rate-Cutting Cycle Winding Down?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的降息周期是否即将结束？</p>
</div><p>U.S. Economy Shows Mixed Signals Ahead Of Likely Fed Cut</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济在可能的美联储降息前显示出混合信号</p>
</div>

AI Capex Wave Tests Bond Market Depth

- 全球 AI 基础设施建设的资本支出已超 $5 万亿。  
- 约 $1.5 万亿预计通过高等级信用市场融资。  
- 投资者对高质量发行人的需求强劲，市场吸收能力良好。

人工智能资本支出浪潮正在考验债券市场的深度