<p>日经指数上涨超过 1%，华尔街期货小幅上扬</p><p>日元兑欧元和瑞士法郎创历史新低，日本国债承压</p><p>银价创下新高，因委内瑞拉消息油价上涨</p><p>作者：Wayne Cole</p><p>悉尼，12 月 22 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市周一上涨，跟随华尔街的科技驱动涨幅，而日元兑欧元和瑞士法郎则徘徊在历史低点，国内利率上升并未能阻止投机卖盘。</p><p>在这个假期缩短的一周中，成交量稀少，但在预计将显示美国经济在第三季度继续强劲增长的延迟数据之前，市场的阻力路径是向上的。中位数预测显示年化增长为 3.2%，部分原因是由于在关税引入前，进口大幅回落。</p><p>然而，美国银行的分析师发出了一些警告，指出他们的投资者情绪指标已进入极度乐观的领域，达到了 8.5，通常是反转的前兆。</p><p>“超过 8.0 的读数通常会预示回调，全球股票在接下来的两个月中中位数下跌 2.7%，命中率为 63%。” 他们在一份报告中写道。</p><p>“情绪数据进一步强化了警示信号：基金经理调查显示，过去 3 年半中最乐观的情绪，主要受到利率、关税和减税预期的驱动。”</p><p>目前，错失机会的恐惧似乎更为强烈，标准普尔 500 期货（ESc1）再涨 0.2%，纳斯达克期货（NQc1）上涨 0.3%。</p><p>日本日经指数（.N225）上涨 1.5%，延续了周五的反弹，日元的急剧下跌预计将提升日本企业的出口收益。</p><p>日元的抛售发生在日本央行将利率提高至 30 年来的最高点 0.75% 之际，给政府债务施加了巨大的卖压。</p><p>日本央行会议纪要将于周三公布，而央行行长将在圣诞节对日本商业游说团发表讲话。</p><h3>关注干预</h3><p>日元兑欧元触及 184.90 的新低（EURJPY=EBS），兑瑞士法郎触及 198.08 的新低（JPYCHF=EBS）。美元上涨至 157.67（JPY=EBS），尽管投资者对测试 11 月的高点 157.90 持谨慎态度，以免引发东京的干预。日本首席货币官员适时表达了对单边走势的担忧，并警告将对过度下跌采取适当措施。</p><p>突破 158.00 将目标指向 2025 年的高点 158.88，然后是 2024 年的高点 161.96。美元在一篮子货币中保持稳定，报 98.725（=USD），周五上涨 0.3%。</p><p>MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票的广泛指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）上涨 0.3%，而韩国（.KS11）因对人工智能相关收益的乐观预期上涨 1.8%。</p><p>TD 证券的分析师指出，上周股市录得创纪录的 980 亿美元的周流入，主要由美国股票基金主导。中国股票基金录得 2025 年第三大周流入，新兴市场则吸引了自 4 月以来最大的流入。</p><p>然而，债券流入连续第四周放缓。日本 10 年期债务收益率（JP10YTN=JBTC）再上涨 2.5 个基点，达到自 1999 年以来的最高水平，而美国 10 年期收益率（US10YT=TWEB）小幅上升至 4.157%。</p><p>银价再次成为商品市场的明星，达到每盎司 67.48 美元（XAG=），年内涨幅接近 134%。黄金当天上涨 0.6%，报每盎司 4362 美元（XAU=）。</p><p>油价因美国在周末拦截了一艘委内瑞拉油轮而上涨，并正在追踪另一艘，这将是不到两周内的第三次此类行动。（O/R）</p><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）上涨 0.7%，至每桶 60.88 美元，而美国原油（CLc1）上涨 0.7%，至每桶 56.89 美元。（编辑：Stephen Coates）</p>

<p>亚洲股市上涨，受到华尔街科技股上涨的推动，而日元兑欧元和瑞士法郎创下历史低点。日本日经指数上涨 1.5%，因日元贬值提升了出口收益。日本央行加息，给政府债务施加压力。银价创下历史新高，油价因美国对委内瑞拉油轮的行动而上涨。分析师警告称，极端的看涨情绪可能预示着市场回调</p>

<p>Nikkei climbs over 1%, Wall St futures edge ahead</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经指数上涨超过 1%，华尔街期货小幅上扬</p>
</div><p>Yen at all-time lows vs euro and Swissy, JGBs buckle</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元兑欧元和瑞士法郎创历史新低，日本国债承压</p>
</div><p>Silver hits a fresh peak, oil up on Venezuela news</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价创下新高，因委内瑞拉消息油价上涨</p>
</div><p>By Wayne Cole</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Wayne Cole</p>
</div><p>SYDNEY, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Asian share markets rose on Monday tracking tech-driven gains on Wall Street, while the yen wallowed at all-time lows against the euro and Swiss franc as higher interest rates at home did nothing to deter speculative sellers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>悉尼，12 月 22 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市周一上涨，跟随华尔街的科技驱动涨幅，而日元兑欧元和瑞士法郎则徘徊在历史低点，国内利率上升并未能阻止投机卖盘。</p>
</div><p>Turnover was sparse in what is a holiday-shortened week for much of the world but the path of least resistance was higher ahead of delayed data that is forecast to show the U.S. economy had continued to grow strongly in the third quarter. Median forecasts tip annualised growth of 3.2%, due in part to a sharp pullback in imports after a run-up earlier in the year ahead of the introduction of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个假期缩短的一周中，成交量稀少，但在预计将显示美国经济在第三季度继续强劲增长的延迟数据之前，市场的阻力路径是向上的。中位数预测显示年化增长为 3.2%，部分原因是由于在关税引入前，进口大幅回落。</p>
</div><p>Yet analysts at BofA had some words of caution, noting their measure of investor sentiment had moved into extreme bullish territory at 8.5, often a prelude to a reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美国银行的分析师发出了一些警告，指出他们的投资者情绪指标已进入极度乐观的领域，达到了 8.5，通常是反转的前兆。</p>
</div><p>“Readings above 8.0 have often preceded pullbacks, with global equities declining a median 2.7% over the following two months, with a 63% hit rate,” they wrote in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“超过 8.0 的读数通常会预示回调，全球股票在接下来的两个月中中位数下跌 2.7%，命中率为 63%。” 他们在一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>“Sentiment data reinforce the cautionary signal: the Fund Manager Survey shows most bullish sentiment in 3-1⁄2 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“情绪数据进一步强化了警示信号：基金经理调查显示，过去 3 年半中最乐观的情绪，主要受到利率、关税和减税预期的驱动。”</p>
</div><p>For now the fear of missing out seemed to be greater and S&amp;P 500 futures (ESc1) added another 0.2%, with Nasdaq futures (NQc1) up 0.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，错失机会的恐惧似乎更为强烈，标准普尔 500 期货（ESc1）再涨 0.2%，纳斯达克期货（NQc1）上涨 0.3%。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.5%, extending Friday’s bounce as a steep decline in the yen promised to boost export earnings for Japanese corporates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日经指数（.N225）上涨 1.5%，延续了周五的反弹，日元的急剧下跌预计将提升日本企业的出口收益。</p>
</div><p>The yen selloff came as the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%, putting heavy selling pressure on government debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元的抛售发生在日本央行将利率提高至 30 年来的最高点 0.75% 之际，给政府债务施加了巨大的卖压。</p>
</div><p>Minutes of the BOJ meeting are due on Wednesday, while the head of the central bank speaks to a Japanese business lobby on Christmas Day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行会议纪要将于周三公布，而央行行长将在圣诞节对日本商业游说团发表讲话。</p>
</div><h3>ON INTERVENTION WATCH</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关注干预</h3>
</div><p>The yen touched a fresh record trough on the euro at 184.90 (EURJPY=EBS) , and on the Swiss franc at 198.08 (JPYCHF=EBS) . The dollar was up at 157.67 (JPY=EBS) , though investors were wary of testing the November peak of 157.90 in case that triggered intervention from Tokyo. Japan’s chief currency official duly signalled their concern about one-way moves and warned of appropriate action against an excessive decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元兑欧元触及 184.90 的新低（EURJPY=EBS），兑瑞士法郎触及 198.08 的新低（JPYCHF=EBS）。美元上涨至 157.67（JPY=EBS），尽管投资者对测试 11 月的高点 157.90 持谨慎态度，以免引发东京的干预。日本首席货币官员适时表达了对单边走势的担忧，并警告将对过度下跌采取适当措施。</p>
</div><p>A break of 158.00 higher would target the 2025 top of 158.88, and then the 2024 high at 161.96. The dollar was otherwise steady on a basket of currencies at 98.725 (=USD) , having gained 0.3% on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>突破 158.00 将目标指向 2025 年的高点 158.88，然后是 2024 年的高点 161.96。美元在一篮子货币中保持稳定，报 98.725（=USD），周五上涨 0.3%。</p>
</div><p>MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.3%, while South Korea (.KS11) jumped 1.8% on optimism over AI-related earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票的广泛指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）上涨 0.3%，而韩国（.KS11）因对人工智能相关收益的乐观预期上涨 1.8%。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at TD Securities noted equity markets recorded their highest weekly inflows on record at $98 billion last week, led by U.S. equity funds. Chinese equity funds saw their third largest weekly inflow of 2025, and emerging markets drew their largest inflows since April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TD 证券的分析师指出，上周股市录得创纪录的 980 亿美元的周流入，主要由美国股票基金主导。中国股票基金录得 2025 年第三大周流入，新兴市场则吸引了自 4 月以来最大的流入。</p>
</div><p>Flows to bonds, however, saw their fourth straight week of slowdown. Yields on Japanese 10-year debt (JP10YTN=JBTC) rose another 2.5 basis points to the highest since 1999, while U.S. 10-year yields (US10YT=TWEB) edged up to 4.157%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，债券流入连续第四周放缓。日本 10 年期债务收益率（JP10YTN=JBTC）再上涨 2.5 个基点，达到自 1999 年以来的最高水平，而美国 10 年期收益率（US10YT=TWEB）小幅上升至 4.157%。</p>
</div><p>Silver was again the star in commodities, reaching a fresh record at $67.48 per ounce (XAG=) and bringing gains for the year to almost 134%. Gold was up 0.6% on the day at $4,362 an ounce (XAU=) . (GOL/)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价再次成为商品市场的明星，达到每盎司 67.48 美元（XAG=），年内涨幅接近 134%。黄金当天上涨 0.6%，报每盎司 4362 美元（XAU=）。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices gained after the U.S. intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker over the weekend, and was pursuing another one in what would be the third such operation in less than two weeks. (O/R)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价因美国在周末拦截了一艘委内瑞拉油轮而上涨，并正在追踪另一艘，这将是不到两周内的第三次此类行动。（O/R）</p>
</div><p>Brent (LCOc1) firmed 0.7% to $60.88 a barrel, while U.S. crude (CLc1) rose 0.7% to $56.89 per barrel. (Editing by Stephen Coates)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）上涨 0.7%，至每桶 60.88 美元，而美国原油（CLc1）上涨 0.7%，至每桶 56.89 美元。（编辑：Stephen Coates）</p>
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全球市场 - 亚洲股市延续科技股的反弹势头，日元面临压力