<p>预测市场（PMs）是目前加密领域最热门的话题之一，紧随其后的是稳定币、代币化和永续市场。然而，这一领域通常被批评者视为典型的赌博。</p>
<p>然而，对于以太坊创始人 Vitalik Buterin 来说，PMs 是 “寻求真相” 的工具，是 “疯狂观点的解药”，他引用了 Elon Musk 关于 “英国内战不可避免” 的说法。</p>
<p></p>
<p>来源：Farcaster</p>
<p>尽管如此，他也承认这些平台仍然可能被操纵以造成伤害。</p>
<h2>Polymarket 的突破</h2>
<p>尽管如此，2025 年成为这一领域的突破时刻，特别是与主要金融平台的风险规划整合。</p>
<p>Polymarket 被纽约证券交易所（NYSE）的母公司 ICE 选中，将该平台的数据分发给全球金融公司。这将有助于对冲基金和其他实体的风险管理。</p>
<p>它还与社交媒体巨头 X（前身为 Twitter）达成了合作。基于 Polygon 的去中心化 PM 在日交易量方面达到了 1.79 亿美元的历史新高，随着关注度和采用率的增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-volume-share.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-volume-share.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>有趣的是，英超联赛和其他体育赛季在八月开始，Polymarket 的交易量也在那时开始上升。然而，预测市场使用户能够在多个市场上进行投注，从选举到加密货币话题。</p>
<h2>Polymarket 与 Kalshi</h2>
<p>鉴于其财务激励，市场和专家，包括 Buterin，认为 PMs 比传统调查更能提供真实的信息。</p>
<p>长期以来，基于 Polygon 的 Polymarket 一直是领先的 Web3 预测市场。然而，Kalshi 对其智能合约进行了代币化，并与多个基于 Solana 的平台（如 Jupiter）建立了合作关系。BNB 链也扩大了对 PMs 的采用。</p>
<p>然而，最近 Kalshi 开始侵蚀 Polymarket 的市场份额。事实上，它现在控制了市场交易量的 73%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-market-share.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-market-share.png"/></p>
<p>来源：The Block</p>
<p>Kalshi 部分获得关注是由于自 2022 年以来 Polymarket 在美国的禁令。然而，该平台已解决其监管问题，并计划再次重新进入美国市场。尽管如此，能否重新夺回市场主导地位仍有待观察。</p>
<p>此外，Polygon 最近的停机影响了 Polymarket，内部人士表示团队正在加速其 L2 的开发。此外，随着计划中的 POLY 推出，平台的交易量可能会反弹，用户将为空投进行农场操作。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>根据 Buterin 的说法，预测市场是 “寻求真相” 的工具，可以清除疯狂市场和话题中的噪音。</em></li>
<li><em>Kalshi 继续主导市场交易量，而 Polymarket 则寻求重新进入美国市场。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

ETHE

<p>以太坊的维塔利克·布特林将预测市场视为 “寻求真相” 的工具，反驳了那些将其视为赌博的批评者。他承认存在潜在的操控风险，但强调了它们在风险管理中的作用，正如 Polymarket 与纽约证券交易所母公司及社交媒体巨头 X 的合作所示。尽管 Polymarket 在美国被禁，Kalshi 目前在市场上占据主导地位，控制着 73% 的交易量。Polymarket 计划重新进入美国市场并推出 POLY 以恢复其主导地位。布特林认为，预测市场能够清除混乱市场中的噪音</p>

<p>Prediction markets (PMs) are one of crypto’s hottest topics alongside stablecoins, tokenization, and perpetual markets right now. However, the segment is typically viewed as typical gambling by critics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场（PMs）是目前加密领域最热门的话题之一，紧随其后的是稳定币、代币化和永续市场。然而，这一领域通常被批评者视为典型的赌博。</p>
</div><p>For Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, however, PMs are “truth seeking” and “an antidote for crazy opinions,” with the exec citing Elon Musk’s claim of “UK civil war being inevitable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对于以太坊创始人 Vitalik Buterin 来说，PMs 是 “寻求真相” 的工具，是 “疯狂观点的解药”，他引用了 Elon Musk 关于 “英国内战不可避免” 的说法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-21-155237.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-21-155237.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Farcaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Farcaster</p>
</div><p>That being said, he did acknowledge that the platforms can still be manipulated to cause harm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，他也承认这些平台仍然可能被操纵以造成伤害。</p>
</div><h2>Polymarket’s breakthrough</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Polymarket 的突破</h2>
</div><p>Still, 2025 became a breakout moment for the segment, particularly with the integration of major financial platforms for risk planning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，2025 年成为这一领域的突破时刻，特别是与主要金融平台的风险规划整合。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket was tapped by New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) parent company, ICE, to distribute the platform’s data to global financial firms. This would help with risk management for hedge funds and other entities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 被纽约证券交易所（NYSE）的母公司 ICE 选中，将该平台的数据分发给全球金融公司。这将有助于对冲基金和其他实体的风险管理。</p>
</div><p>It also scored a partnership with social media giant X (formerly Twitter). The Polygon-based decentralized PM soon reached a record high in daily trading volume, at $179 million, amid growing traction and adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还与社交媒体巨头 X（前身为 Twitter）达成了合作。基于 Polygon 的去中心化 PM 在日交易量方面达到了 1.79 亿美元的历史新高，随着关注度和采用率的增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-volume-share.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-volume-share.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Interestingly, Premier League and other sports seasons began in August, and Polymarket volume also picked up momentum around that time. However, prediction markets enable users to wager on multiple markets, ranging from elections to cryptocurrency topics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，英超联赛和其他体育赛季在八月开始，Polymarket 的交易量也在那时开始上升。然而，预测市场使用户能够在多个市场上进行投注，从选举到加密货币话题。</p>
</div><h2>Polymarket vs. Kalshi</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Polymarket 与 Kalshi</h2>
</div><p>Given their financial incentives, markets and experts, including Buterin, view PMs as a better source of truth than traditional surveys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于其财务激励，市场和专家，包括 Buterin，认为 PMs 比传统调查更能提供真实的信息。</p>
</div><p>For long, Polygon-based Polymarket has been the leading Web3 predictions market. However, Kalshi tokenised its smart contracts and partnered with various Solana-based platforms such as Jupiter. The BNB chain also scaled its adoption of PMs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期以来，基于 Polygon 的 Polymarket 一直是领先的 Web3 预测市场。然而，Kalshi 对其智能合约进行了代币化，并与多个基于 Solana 的平台（如 Jupiter）建立了合作关系。BNB 链也扩大了对 PMs 的采用。</p>
</div><p>Lately though, Kalshi has eaten into Polymarket’s share. In fact, it now controls 73% of the market’s volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近 Kalshi 开始侵蚀 Polymarket 的市场份额。事实上，它现在控制了市场交易量的 73%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-market-share.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-market-share.png"/></p>
<p>Source: The Block</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：The Block</p>
</div><p>Kalshi partly gained traction due to Polymarket’s U.S ban since 2022. However, the platform has resolved its regulatory issues and is planning to reopen to the U.S. market again. Even so, it remains to be seen if it will reclaim its market dominance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 部分获得关注是由于自 2022 年以来 Polymarket 在美国的禁令。然而，该平台已解决其监管问题，并计划再次重新进入美国市场。尽管如此，能否重新夺回市场主导地位仍有待观察。</p>
</div><p>Also, Polygon’s recent downtime affected Polymarket, prompting the team to accelerate its L2, according to insiders. Besides, with the planned POLY launch, the platform volumes could bounce back, driven by users farming for airdrops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Polygon 最近的停机影响了 Polymarket，内部人士表示团队正在加速其 L2 的开发。此外，随着计划中的 POLY 推出，平台的交易量可能会反弹，用户将为空投进行农场操作。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Prediction markets are ‘truth-seeking’ tools to clear noise from crazy markets and topics, according to Buterin.</em></li>
<li><em>Kalshi continues to dominate market volume as Polymarket seeks U.S market re-entry.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>根据 Buterin 的说法，预测市场是 “寻求真相” 的工具，可以清除疯狂市场和话题中的噪音。</em></li>
<li><em>Kalshi 继续主导市场交易量，而 Polymarket 则寻求重新进入美国市场。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

为什么以太坊的 Vitalik Buterin 将预测市场视为 ‘寻求真相’ 的工具