<p>唐纳德·特朗普总统于 2025 年重返白宫，开启了全球贸易的狂热一年，对美国贸易伙伴实施了一系列关税，将进口税提高到自大萧条以来的最高水平，扰乱了金融市场，并引发了一轮轮关于贸易和投资协议的谈判。</p>
<p>他的贸易政策及其全球反应将在 2026 年继续占据中心位置，但面临一些重大挑战。</p>
<p>2025 年发生了什么</p>
<p>特朗普的举措旨在广泛振兴衰退的制造业基础，根据耶鲁预算实验室的数据，平均关税率从 2024 年底的不到 3% 上升至近 17%，这些关税现在每月为美国财政部带来约 300 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>这些措施使世界领导人纷纷前往华盛顿寻求降低关税的协议，通常以承诺数十亿美元的美国投资作为交换。与包括欧盟、英国、瑞士、日本、韩国、越南等在内的多个主要贸易伙伴达成了框架协议，但与中国的最终协议仍未达成，尽管进行了多轮谈判和特朗普与中国领导人习近平的面对面会晤。</p>
<p>欧盟因其对出口征收 15% 关税的协议以及对大规模美国投资的模糊承诺而受到许多人的批评。当时法国总理弗朗索瓦·巴伊鲁称其为屈服的行为，并称这是该集团的 “阴郁之日”。其他人则认为这是 “最不坏” 的交易。</p>
<p>自那时以来，欧洲出口商和经济体在新关税率下普遍应对良好，得益于各种豁免和他们在其他市场寻找机会的能力。法国银行法国外贸银行估计，关税的直接影响总额仅相当于该地区 GDP 的 0.37%。</p>
<p>与此同时，中国的贸易顺差在特朗普的关税下逆势而上，超过 1 万亿美元，因为它成功地实现了对美国的多元化，提升了制造业的价值链，并利用在稀土矿物方面获得的杠杆——这些是西方安全框架中的关键原材料——来抵制来自美国或欧洲的压力，要求其削减顺差。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，经济灾难和高通胀并没有如众多经济学家所预测的那样因特朗普的关税而发生。</p>
<p>美国经济在第一季度经历了温和的收缩，因为在关税生效前争相进口商品，但很快反弹，并继续以高于趋势的速度增长，这得益于大规模的人工智能投资热潮和强劲的消费者支出。国际货币基金组织实际上在特朗普于 4 月宣布 “解放日” 关税后的几个月内两次上调了全球增长预期，因为不确定性减弱，达成了降低最初宣布的关税率的协议。</p>
<p>尽管美国的通胀在一定程度上因关税而保持在较高水平，但经济学家和政策制定者现在预计其影响将比预期的更温和和短暂，进口税的成本在生产商、进口商、零售商和消费者之间分摊。</p>
<p>2026 年需要关注的事项及其重要性</p>
<p>2026 年的一个重大未知因素是特朗普的许多关税是否会被允许继续存在。针对他所称的 “互惠” 关税的法律基础以及对中国、加拿大和墨西哥征收的与芬太尼流入美国相关的关税的挑战在 2025 年底已在美国最高法院进行辩论，预计将在 2026 年初作出裁决。</p>
<p>特朗普政府坚称，如果败诉，可以转向其他更为成熟的法律依据来维持关税。但这些法律依据更为繁琐，且通常范围有限，因此如果政府在最高法院败诉，可能会促使重新谈判迄今达成的协议，或引发关于关税最终走向的新一轮不确定性。</p>
<p>对欧洲来说，与中国的贸易关系同样重要，多年来中国一直是其出口商可靠的目的地。人民币贬值和中国公司逐步提升价值链帮助了中国的出口商。与此同时，欧洲公司在逐渐放缓的中国国内市场上则难以进一步拓展。2026 年的一个关键问题是，欧洲是否最终会使用关税或其他措施来解决一些官员开始称之为中欧贸易关系中的 “失衡” 问题。</p>
<p>最终达成美中协议的努力也显得尤为重要。今年谈判中达成的脆弱休战将在 2026 年下半年到期，特朗普和习近平计划在这一年内进行两次会晤。</p>
<p>最后，与美国两个最大贸易伙伴——加拿大和墨西哥的自由贸易协议将在 2026 年进行审查，面临特朗普是否会让该协议到期或尝试重新调整以符合其意愿的不确定性。</p>
<p>分析师的看法：</p>
<p>&#34;看起来政府正在收回其对关税的最严厉立场，以缓解一些通胀/定价问题，&#34; AXA 投资管理公司的核心投资首席投资官兼投资研究所主席克里斯·伊戈在 2026 年展望电话会议上表示。&#34;因此，对市场的担忧减少。如果关税降低或至少不再进一步增加，可能对通胀前景略有帮助。&#34; 在年内的中期选举之前，&#34;与中国的对抗性贸易战不会很好——达成协议对美国前景在政治和经济上都更有利，&#34; 他说。</p>

特朗普媒体科技集团

<p>特朗普总统在 2025 年重返白宫后，全球贸易发生了重大变化，对美国贸易伙伴的关税大幅上调。这些旨在振兴美国制造业的政策将关税提高至近 17%，每月为美国财政部带来 300 亿美元的收入。尽管达成了一些协议，但与中国的最终协议仍在待定中。美国经济表现出韧性，但 2026 年仍存在不确定性，包括对关税的潜在最高法院挑战以及持续的美中谈判</p>

<p>President Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025 kicked off a frenetic year for global trade, with waves of tariffs on U.S. trading partners that lifted import taxes to their highest since the Great Depression, roiled financial markets and sparked rounds of negotiations over trade and investment deals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普总统于 2025 年重返白宫，开启了全球贸易的狂热一年，对美国贸易伙伴实施了一系列关税，将进口税提高到自大萧条以来的最高水平，扰乱了金融市场，并引发了一轮轮关于贸易和投资协议的谈判。</p>
</div><p>His trade policies - and the global reaction to them - will remain front and center in 2026, but face some hefty challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的贸易政策及其全球反应将在 2026 年继续占据中心位置，但面临一些重大挑战。</p>
</div><p>WHAT HAPPENED IN 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年发生了什么</p>
</div><p>Trump's moves, aimed broadly at reviving a declining manufacturing base, lifted the average tariff rate to nearly 17% from less than 3% at the end of 2024, according to Yale Budget Lab, and the levies are now generating roughly $30 billion a month of revenue for the U.S. Treasury.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的举措旨在广泛振兴衰退的制造业基础，根据耶鲁预算实验室的数据，平均关税率从 2024 年底的不到 3% 上升至近 17%，这些关税现在每月为美国财政部带来约 300 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>They brought world leaders scrambling to Washington seeking deals for lower rates, often in return for pledges of billions of dollars in U.S. investments. Framework deals were struck with a host of major trading partners, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and others, but notably a final agreement with China remains on the undone list despite multiple rounds of talks and a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些措施使世界领导人纷纷前往华盛顿寻求降低关税的协议，通常以承诺数十亿美元的美国投资作为交换。与包括欧盟、英国、瑞士、日本、韩国、越南等在内的多个主要贸易伙伴达成了框架协议，但与中国的最终协议仍未达成，尽管进行了多轮谈判和特朗普与中国领导人习近平的面对面会晤。</p>
</div><p>The EU was criticized by many for its deal for a 15% tariff on its exports and a vague commitment to big U.S. investments. France's prime minister at the time, Francois Bayrou, called it an act of submission and a &#34;sombre day&#34; for the bloc. Others shrugged that it was the &#34;least bad&#34; deal on offer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟因其对出口征收 15% 关税的协议以及对大规模美国投资的模糊承诺而受到许多人的批评。当时法国总理弗朗索瓦·巴伊鲁称其为屈服的行为，并称这是该集团的 “阴郁之日”。其他人则认为这是 “最不坏” 的交易。</p>
</div><p>Since then, European exporters and economies have broadly coped with the new tariff rate, thanks to various exemptions and their ability to find markets elsewhere. French bank Societe Generale estimated the total direct impact of the tariffs was equivalent to just 0.37% of the region's GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，欧洲出口商和经济体在新关税率下普遍应对良好，得益于各种豁免和他们在其他市场寻找机会的能力。法国银行法国外贸银行估计，关税的直接影响总额仅相当于该地区 GDP 的 0.37%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, China's trade surplus defied Trump's tariffs to surpass $1 trillion as it succeeded in diversifying away from the U.S., moved its manufacturing sector up the value chain, and used the leverage it has gained in rare earth minerals - crucial inputs into the West's security scaffolding - to push back against pressure from the U.S. or Europe to curb its surplus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，中国的贸易顺差在特朗普的关税下逆势而上，超过 1 万亿美元，因为它成功地实现了对美国的多元化，提升了制造业的价值链，并利用在稀土矿物方面获得的杠杆——这些是西方安全框架中的关键原材料——来抵制来自美国或欧洲的压力，要求其削减顺差。</p>
</div><p>What notably did not happen was the economic calamity and high inflation that legions of economists predicted would unfold from Trump's tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，经济灾难和高通胀并没有如众多经济学家所预测的那样因特朗普的关税而发生。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economy suffered a modest contraction in the first quarter amid a scramble to import goods before tariffs took effect, but quickly rebounded and continues to grow at an above-trend pace thanks to a massive artificial intelligence investment boom and resilient consumer spending. The International Monetary Fund, in fact, twice lifted its global growth outlook in the months following Trump's &#34;Liberation Day&#34; tariffs announcement in April as uncertainty ebbed and deals were struck to reduce the originally announced rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济在第一季度经历了温和的收缩，因为在关税生效前争相进口商品，但很快反弹，并继续以高于趋势的速度增长，这得益于大规模的人工智能投资热潮和强劲的消费者支出。国际货币基金组织实际上在特朗普于 4 月宣布 “解放日” 关税后的几个月内两次上调了全球增长预期，因为不确定性减弱，达成了降低最初宣布的关税率的协议。</p>
</div><p>And while U.S. inflation remains somewhat elevated in part because of tariffs, economists and policymakers now expect the effects to be more mild and short-lived than feared, with cost sharing of the import taxes occurring across the supply chain among producers, importers, retailers and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国的通胀在一定程度上因关税而保持在较高水平，但经济学家和政策制定者现在预计其影响将比预期的更温和和短暂，进口税的成本在生产商、进口商、零售商和消费者之间分摊。</p>
</div><p>WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2026 AND WHY IT MATTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年需要关注的事项及其重要性</p>
</div><p>A big unknown for 2026 is whether many of Trump's tariffs are allowed to stand. A challenge to the novel legal premise for what he branded as &#34;reciprocal&#34; tariffs on goods from individual countries and for levies imposed on China, Canada and Mexico tied to the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. was argued before the U.S. Supreme Court in late 2025, and a decision is expected in early 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的一个重大未知因素是特朗普的许多关税是否会被允许继续存在。针对他所称的 “互惠” 关税的法律基础以及对中国、加拿大和墨西哥征收的与芬太尼流入美国相关的关税的挑战在 2025 年底已在美国最高法院进行辩论，预计将在 2026 年初作出裁决。</p>
</div><p>The Trump administration insists it can shift to other, more-established legal authorities to keep tariffs in place should it lose. But those are more cumbersome and often limited in scope, so a loss at the high court for the administration might prompt renegotiations of the deals struck so far or usher in a new era of uncertainty about where the tariffs will end up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府坚称，如果败诉，可以转向其他更为成熟的法律依据来维持关税。但这些法律依据更为繁琐，且通常范围有限，因此如果政府在最高法院败诉，可能会促使重新谈判迄今达成的协议，或引发关于关税最终走向的新一轮不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Arguably just as important for Europe is what is happening with its trading relationship with China, for years a reliable destination for its exporters. The depreciation of the yuan and the gradual move up the value chain for Chinese companies have helped China's exporters. Europe's companies meanwhile have struggled to make further inroads into the slowing domestic Chinese market. One of the key questions for 2026 is whether Europe finally uses tariffs or other measures to address what some of its officials are starting to call the &#34;imbalances&#34; in the China-EU trading ties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对欧洲来说，与中国的贸易关系同样重要，多年来中国一直是其出口商可靠的目的地。人民币贬值和中国公司逐步提升价值链帮助了中国的出口商。与此同时，欧洲公司在逐渐放缓的中国国内市场上则难以进一步拓展。2026 年的一个关键问题是，欧洲是否最终会使用关税或其他措施来解决一些官员开始称之为中欧贸易关系中的 “失衡” 问题。</p>
</div><p>Efforts to finally cement a U.S.-China deal loom large as well. A shaky detente reached in this year's talks will expire in the second half of 2026, and Trump and Xi are tentatively set to meet twice over the course of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终达成美中协议的努力也显得尤为重要。今年谈判中达成的脆弱休战将在 2026 年下半年到期，特朗普和习近平计划在这一年内进行两次会晤。</p>
</div><p>And lastly, the free trade deal with the two largest U.S. trading partners - Canada and Mexico - is up for review in 2026 amid uncertainty over whether Trump will let the pact expire or try to retool it more to his liking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，与美国两个最大贸易伙伴——加拿大和墨西哥的自由贸易协议将在 2026 年进行审查，面临特朗普是否会让该协议到期或尝试重新调整以符合其意愿的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师的看法：</p>
</div><p>&#34;It seems like the administration is rowing back on its harshest stance on tariffs in order to mitigate some of the inflation/pricing issues,&#34; Chris Iggo, chief investment officer for Core Investments and chair of the Investment Institute at AXA Investment Managers, said on a 2026 outlook call. &#34;So less of a concern to markets. Could be marginally helpful to the inflation outlook if tariffs are reduced or at least not further increased.&#34; Ahead of midterm elections later in the year, &#34;a confrontational trade war with China would not be great - a deal would be politically and economically better for the U.S. outlook,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;看起来政府正在收回其对关税的最严厉立场，以缓解一些通胀/定价问题，&#34; AXA 投资管理公司的核心投资首席投资官兼投资研究所主席克里斯·伊戈在 2026 年展望电话会议上表示。&#34;因此，对市场的担忧减少。如果关税降低或至少不再进一步增加，可能对通胀前景略有帮助。&#34; 在年内的中期选举之前，&#34;与中国的对抗性贸易战不会很好——达成协议对美国前景在政治和经济上都更有利，&#34; 他说。</p>
</div>

特朗普今年对全球贸易产生了冲击；一些不确定性可能会持续到 2026 年