<ul>
<li>如果你在想 On Holding 是否仍然是一个具有吸引力的成长故事，或者这只股票是否已经超越了其基本面，这篇分析将为你解答。</li>
<li>在经历了一段波动期后，该股年初至今下跌了 12.3%，过去一年下跌了 14.3%，但最近一个月上涨了 17.7%，三年内上涨了 198.3%，这表明投资者在情绪转好时仍愿意支持长期故事。</li>
<li>最近的价格走势主要受到品牌热情增长的推动，因为它在性能跑步、生活方式和直接面向消费者的渠道中扩大了市场份额。投资者关注的是，在与更大竞争者竞争并推出新产品线时，这种增长的可持续性如何。</li>
<li>尽管有很多讨论，On Holding 在我们的低估检查中仅得分 1 分（满分 6 分）。在本文中，我们将解析传统估值方法对该股票的看法。最后，我们将以一种更全面的方式思考其长期价值，超越简单的倍数和模型。</li>
</ul>
<p>On Holding 在我们的估值检查中仅得 1/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法 1：On Holding 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测公司未来能够产生的现金并将这些现金流折现回今天，来估算公司的价值。对于 On Holding，该模型采用两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，从其过去十二个月的自由现金流约为 3.317 亿瑞士法郎开始。</p>
<p>分析师提供了未来几年的详细预测，自由现金流预计到 2028 年将达到约 6.25 亿瑞士法郎。此后，Simply Wall St 推测这一趋势，预计到 2035 年自由现金流将达到约 10.6 亿瑞士法郎，随着增长逐渐放缓，从高双位数降至更成熟的中单位数增长率。</p>
<p>当所有这些预测现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型建议的内在价值约为每股 56.56 美元。与当前市场价格相比，这一框架暗示该股票可能低于这一价值估计约 14.1%，表明市场可能未能充分反映 On Holding 的长期现金生成潜力。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明 On Holding 被低估了 14.1%。在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪此信息，或发现基于现金流的 910 只更多被低估的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 ONON 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 On Holding 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法 2：On Holding 价格与收益</h3>
<p>对于盈利的公司，市盈率通常是最清晰的方式来查看投资者愿意为每一美元的收益支付多少。较高的市盈率通常反映了对更快增长或较低风险的预期。相反，较慢的增长、更多的周期性或更高的风险往往会使市盈率较低，更为保守。</p>
<p>On Holding 当前的市盈率约为 57.47 倍。这远高于奢侈品行业的平均水平约为 20.17 倍，也高于其上市同行，后者的市盈率接近 28.61 倍。为了更好地理解，Simply Wall St 计算出 On 的公允比率为 30.98 倍。这是考虑到其收益增长特征、利润率、行业定位、市值和公司特定风险后，你可能期望的市盈率水平。</p>
<p>这个公允比率比简单的同行或行业比较更具信息性，因为它调整了 On 是否因其基本面而应获得溢价，而不是假设所有奢侈品牌都应以类似的倍数交易。将公允比率 30.98 倍与当前市盈率 57.47 倍进行比较，表明该股票在定价时包含了大量乐观情绪，并在这一指标上显著被高估。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:ONON 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1459 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 On Holding 故事</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向你介绍 Narratives，这是 Simply Wall St 的一种方法，你可以将对公司故事的看法与其未来收入、收益和利润率的明确预测结合起来，然后将其转化为你自己的公允价值，以便与今天的股价进行比较。</p>
<p>Narrative 本质上是你对 On Holding 的个人投资故事，它将你对其品牌实力、产品扩展和竞争优势的看法与一系列财务假设联系起来。该平台随后将这些假设转化为动态估值，便于你在条件变化时重新审视。</p>
<p>在社区页面上可用，并被数百万投资者使用，Narratives 会随着新信息（如收益发布或重大新闻）而保持更新。这帮助你快速查看你的公允价值是否仍然支持在当前市场价格下买入、持有或卖出。</p>
<p>例如，一个乐观的 On Holding Narrative 可能假设收入每年保持超过 22% 的复合增长，利润率上升到低十位数，并证明公允价值接近分析师目标区间的上限。一个更谨慎的 Narrative 可能依赖于较慢的增长、较低的利润率和折扣倍数，以将公允价值锚定在最低分析师估计附近。这两种观点之间的差异是你决定哪个故事更可信的机会。</p>
<p>你认为 On Holding 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ONON 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p><em>这篇文章来自 Simply Wall St，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
<p>用于国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人机器人，而是能够在 30 分钟内在任何地方提供 5G、ISR 和雷达的全自动塔。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>

昂跑

<p>本文分析了 On Holding 最近的股票表现和估值。尽管近期出现反弹，但该股票年初至今下跌了 12.3%。折现现金流（DCF）分析表明该股票被低估了 14.1%，而市盈率分析则显示其被高估。该公司在低估检查中得分为 1/6，投资者关注其在竞争中的增长可持续性。文章探讨了传统的估值方法，并引入叙述性方法，以全面理解其长期价值</p>

<ul>
<li>If you are wondering whether On Holding is still a compelling growth story at a fair price, or if the stock has already sprinted too far ahead of its fundamentals, this breakdown is for you.</li>
<li>After a choppy stretch where the stock is down 12.3% year to date and 14.3% over the last year, the recent 17.7% jump over the past month and 198.3% gain over three years shows investors are still willing to back the long term story when sentiment turns.</li>
<li>Much of the latest price action has been driven by growing enthusiasm for the brand as it expands its footprint in performance running, lifestyle, and direct to consumer channels. Investor focus has zeroed in on how sustainable that growth is as On competes with bigger incumbents and leans into new product lines.</li>
<li>Despite the buzz, On Holding only scores 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks. In this article, we will unpack what traditional valuation methods say about the stock. We will then finish with a more complete way to think about its long term value that goes beyond simple multiples and models.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果你在想 On Holding 是否仍然是一个具有吸引力的成长故事，或者这只股票是否已经超越了其基本面，这篇分析将为你解答。</li>
<li>在经历了一段波动期后，该股年初至今下跌了 12.3%，过去一年下跌了 14.3%，但最近一个月上涨了 17.7%，三年内上涨了 198.3%，这表明投资者在情绪转好时仍愿意支持长期故事。</li>
<li>最近的价格走势主要受到品牌热情增长的推动，因为它在性能跑步、生活方式和直接面向消费者的渠道中扩大了市场份额。投资者关注的是，在与更大竞争者竞争并推出新产品线时，这种增长的可持续性如何。</li>
<li>尽管有很多讨论，On Holding 在我们的低估检查中仅得分 1 分（满分 6 分）。在本文中，我们将解析传统估值方法对该股票的看法。最后，我们将以一种更全面的方式思考其长期价值，超越简单的倍数和模型。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>On Holding scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>On Holding 在我们的估值检查中仅得 1/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: On Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：On Holding 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today. For On Holding, the model uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from its last twelve months free cash flow of about CHF 331.7 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测公司未来能够产生的现金并将这些现金流折现回今天，来估算公司的价值。对于 On Holding，该模型采用两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，从其过去十二个月的自由现金流约为 3.317 亿瑞士法郎开始。</p>
</div><p>Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years, with free cash flow expected to reach around CHF 625 million by 2028. Beyond that point, Simply Wall St extrapolates the trend, with projections reaching roughly CHF 1.06 billion of free cash flow by 2035 as growth gradually slows from high double digits to more mature mid single digit rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师提供了未来几年的详细预测，自由现金流预计到 2028 年将达到约 6.25 亿瑞士法郎。此后，Simply Wall St 推测这一趋势，预计到 2035 年自由现金流将达到约 10.6 亿瑞士法郎，随着增长逐渐放缓，从高双位数降至更成熟的中单位数增长率。</p>
</div><p>When all of these forecast cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model suggests an indicative intrinsic value of about $56.56 per share. Compared with the current market price, this framework implies the stock could be roughly 14.1% below this estimate of value, indicating the market may not be fully reflecting On Holding's longer term cash generation potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当所有这些预测现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型建议的内在价值约为每股 56.56 美元。与当前市场价格相比，这一框架暗示该股票可能低于这一价值估计约 14.1%，表明市场可能未能充分反映 On Holding 的长期现金生成潜力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests On Holding is undervalued by 14.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 910 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明 On Holding 被低估了 14.1%。在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪此信息，或发现基于现金流的 910 只更多被低估的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>ONON Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 ONON 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for On Holding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 On Holding 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: On Holding Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：On Holding 价格与收益</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies, the price to earnings ratio is often the clearest way to see how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. A higher PE usually reflects expectations of faster growth or lower perceived risk. In contrast, slower growth, more cyclicality, or higher risk tends to justify a lower, more conservative PE range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于盈利的公司，市盈率通常是最清晰的方式来查看投资者愿意为每一美元的收益支付多少。较高的市盈率通常反映了对更快增长或较低风险的预期。相反，较慢的增长、更多的周期性或更高的风险往往会使市盈率较低，更为保守。</p>
</div><p>On Holding currently trades at about 57.47x earnings. That is well above the broader luxury industry average of roughly 20.17x and also ahead of its listed peer group, which sits closer to 28.61x. To put this into better context, Simply Wall St calculates a Fair Ratio of 30.98x for On. This is the PE level you might expect once you factor in its earnings growth profile, margins, industry positioning, market cap, and company specific risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>On Holding 当前的市盈率约为 57.47 倍。这远高于奢侈品行业的平均水平约为 20.17 倍，也高于其上市同行，后者的市盈率接近 28.61 倍。为了更好地理解，Simply Wall St 计算出 On 的公允比率为 30.98 倍。这是考虑到其收益增长特征、利润率、行业定位、市值和公司特定风险后，你可能期望的市盈率水平。</p>
</div><p>This Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for whether On deserves a premium given its fundamentals, rather than assuming all luxury names should trade at similar multiples. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 30.98x with the current PE of 57.47x suggests the stock is pricing in a lot of optimism and screens as significantly overvalued on this metric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个公允比率比简单的同行或行业比较更具信息性，因为它调整了 On 是否因其基本面而应获得溢价，而不是假设所有奢侈品牌都应以类似的倍数交易。将公允比率 30.98 倍与当前市盈率 57.47 倍进行比较，表明该股票在定价时包含了大量乐观情绪，并在这一指标上显著被高估。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ONON PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:ONON 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1459 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1459 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your On Holding Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 On Holding 故事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, an approach on Simply Wall St where you combine your view of a company’s story with explicit forecasts for its future revenue, earnings, and margins, and then translate that into your own Fair Value to compare against today’s share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向你介绍 Narratives，这是 Simply Wall St 的一种方法，你可以将对公司故事的看法与其未来收入、收益和利润率的明确预测结合起来，然后将其转化为你自己的公允价值，以便与今天的股价进行比较。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative is essentially your personal investment storyline for On Holding that connects what you believe about its brand strength, product expansion, and competitive edge to a set of financial assumptions. The platform then turns these assumptions into a dynamic valuation you can revisit as conditions change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Narrative 本质上是你对 On Holding 的个人投资故事，它将你对其品牌实力、产品扩展和竞争优势的看法与一系列财务假设联系起来。该平台随后将这些假设转化为动态估值，便于你在条件变化时重新审视。</p>
</div><p>Available on the Community page and used by millions of investors, Narratives are kept up to date as new information such as earnings releases or major news flows in. This helps you quickly see whether your Fair Value still supports buying, holding, or selling given the current market price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在社区页面上可用，并被数百万投资者使用，Narratives 会随着新信息（如收益发布或重大新闻）而保持更新。这帮助你快速查看你的公允价值是否仍然支持在当前市场价格下买入、持有或卖出。</p>
</div><p>For example, one optimistic On Holding Narrative might assume revenue keeps compounding above 22 percent a year with margins climbing into the low teens and justify a Fair Value closer to the upper analyst target range. A more cautious Narrative might lean on slower growth, lower margins, and a discounted multiple to anchor a Fair Value nearer the lowest analyst estimate. The difference between those two views is the opportunity for you to decide which story you find more credible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一个乐观的 On Holding Narrative 可能假设收入每年保持超过 22% 的复合增长，利润率上升到低十位数，并证明公允价值接近分析师目标区间的上限。一个更谨慎的 Narrative 可能依赖于较慢的增长、较低的利润率和折扣倍数，以将公允价值锚定在最低分析师估计附近。这两种观点之间的差异是你决定哪个故事更可信的机会。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for On Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为 On Holding 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/30b460e6-f1a8-445d-9f78-310d4e375cd1/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ONON 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NYSE:ONON 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇文章来自 Simply Wall St，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
</div><p>Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>用于国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是类人机器人，而是能够在 30 分钟内在任何地方提供 5G、ISR 和雷达的全自动塔。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>
</div>

昂跑最近的上涨是否仍然由其 2025 年的长期增长故事支撑？