<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="740" height="416" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>人民币在周一早晨大幅回落，此前高盛再次下调了中国经济增长预期。美元/人民币汇率飙升至 7.15，为周三以来的最高点，较上周的低点 7.1072 大幅上涨。</p>
<h2>高盛下调中国经济预期</h2>
<p>中国经济复苏已变成海市蜃楼，正如我们在此处所写的那样 <strong>。</strong> 高盛的分析师在一份报告中警告称，今年的增长将远低于预期。他们预计 2023 年经济增长为 5.4%，低于之前的 6%。</p>
<p>高盛表示，第一季度的强劲复苏在第二季度已经消退，情况可能会进一步恶化。</p>
<p>上周发布的数据表明，5 月份中国的青年失业率创下历史新高。同时，零售销售、工业增长和固定资产投资的增速均低于分析师的预期。</p>
<p>因此，中国人民银行决定下调关键利率，以刺激国内经济增长。分析师预计当局将在未来几个月内推出更多刺激措施。</p>
<p>中国经济面临的最大挑战是，房地产行业占 GDP 的三分之一，复苏进展缓慢。恒大和中国资源等关键公司的股票仍然承压。过去几个月，房价一直处于横盘状态。</p>
<p>另一个经济放缓的迹象是，像京东和阿里巴巴这样的中国电子商务公司未能发布其年度销售狂欢的销售数据。分析师认为，未能发布这些数字意味着销售情况不佳。</p>
<h2>USD/CNH 图表分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="502" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png"/></p>
<p>由 TradingView 提供的 USD/CNH 图表</p>
<p>在过去几周，美元/人民币汇率一直处于上涨趋势，此前在 1 月 13 日跌至 6.7015 的低点。这一复苏使其将重要的阻力位 6.9988 转变为支撑位。该货币对已突破 25 日和 50 日移动平均线，并且也突破了 23.6% 的斐波那契回撤位。</p>
<p>因此，该货币对可能会继续上涨，买家将目标锁定在下一个关键阻力位 7.300。若跌破 7.00 的支撑位，将会使看涨观点失效。</p>
<p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《USD/CNH 分析：高盛下调中国 GDP 预期》。</p>

高盛

<p>高盛已将中国 2023 年的 GDP 增长预估从 6% 下调至 5.4%，导致人民币大幅贬值，美元/人民币汇率上升至 7.15。此次下调反映了对中国经济复苏、青年失业率以及零售销售、工业产出和固定资产投资增长缓慢的担忧。中国人民银行已下调关键利率以刺激增长，预计将有更多的刺激措施出台。房地产行业仍然是一个重大挑战，影响着关键企业和房价</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>The renminbi retreated sharply on Monday morning after Goldman Sachs downgraded China’s economic growth again. The USD/CNH exchange rate jumped to 7.15, the highest point since Wednesday. It jumped from last week’s low of 7.1072.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人民币在周一早晨大幅回落，此前高盛再次下调了中国经济增长预期。美元/人民币汇率飙升至 7.15，为周三以来的最高点，较上周的低点 7.1072 大幅上涨。</p>
</div><h2>Goldman Sachs downgrades China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高盛下调中国经济预期</h2>
</div><p>The Chinese economic recovery has turned into a mirage, as we wrote here <strong>.</strong> In a note, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that growth this year will be much lower than expectations. They see the economy growing by 5.4% in 2023, down from the previous 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国经济复苏已变成海市蜃楼，正如我们在此处所写的那样 <strong>。</strong> 高盛的分析师在一份报告中警告称，今年的增长将远低于预期。他们预计 2023 年经济增长为 5.4%，低于之前的 6%。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs said that the strong recovery seen in the first quarter had fizzled out in Q2 and there is a likelihood that the situation will worsen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛表示，第一季度的强劲复苏在第二季度已经消退，情况可能会进一步恶化。</p>
</div><p>Data published last week showed that the country’s youth unemployment rate jumped to a record high in May. At the same time, retail sales, industrial growth, and fixed asset investments grew at a slower pace than analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周发布的数据表明，5 月份中国的青年失业率创下历史新高。同时，零售销售、工业增长和固定资产投资的增速均低于分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to cut a key interest rate in a bid to spur growth in the country. Analysts expect authorities to deliver more stimulus in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，中国人民银行决定下调关键利率，以刺激国内经济增长。分析师预计当局将在未来几个月内推出更多刺激措施。</p>
</div><p>The biggest challenge for the Chinese economy is that the real estate sector, which accounts for a third of the GDP, is taking longer to recover. Shares of key companies like Evergrande and China Resources Land are still under pressure. House prices have moved sideways in the past few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国经济面临的最大挑战是，房地产行业占 GDP 的三分之一，复苏进展缓慢。恒大和中国资源等关键公司的股票仍然承压。过去几个月，房价一直处于横盘状态。</p>
</div><p>In another sign of the economic slowdown, Chinese e-commerce companies like JD.com and Alibaba failed to publish sales data of their annual sales blitz. Analysts believe that filing to publish these numbers meant that sales were not good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个经济放缓的迹象是，像京东和阿里巴巴这样的中国电子商务公司未能发布其年度销售狂欢的销售数据。分析师认为，未能发布这些数字意味着销售情况不佳。</p>
</div><h2>USD/CNH chart analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/CNH 图表分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png"/></p>
<p>USD/CNH chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 TradingView 提供的 USD/CNH 图表</p>
</div><p>The USD/CNH exchange rate has been in a bullish trend in the past few weeks after it dropped to a low of 6.7015 on January 13th. This recovery has seen it flip the important resistance point at 6.9988 into a support. The pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also jumped above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几周，美元/人民币汇率一直处于上涨趋势，此前在 1 月 13 日跌至 6.7015 的低点。这一复苏使其将重要的阻力位 6.9988 转变为支撑位。该货币对已突破 25 日和 50 日移动平均线，并且也突破了 23.6% 的斐波那契回撤位。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 7.300. A move below the support at 7.00 will invalidate the bullish view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该货币对可能会继续上涨，买家将目标锁定在下一个关键阻力位 7.300。若跌破 7.00 的支撑位，将会使看涨观点失效。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/CNH analysis: Goldman Sachs slashes China GDP estimate appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《USD/CNH 分析：高盛下调中国 GDP 预期》。</p>
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美元兑人民币分析：高盛削减中国 GDP 预期