<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hong-kong-gdp-740x416.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="740" height="416" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hong-kong-gdp-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>香港恒生指数在周三大幅下跌，投资者为市场的新常态做好准备。备受关注的香港指数回落至关键支撑位 H$20,000，全球股市遭遇重大崩溃。与年初至今的高点相比，已回落超过 11%。</p>
<h2>中国经济增长与美联储声明</h2>
<p>随着投资者关注北京正在进行的共产党大会，恒生指数大幅回落。党内在一份声明中表示，预计 2023 年经济将增长 5%，而 2022 年增长为 3%。这一增长预测相较于历史标准被视为相对温和。</p>
<p>恒生指数的另一个主要催化剂是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新声明。在周二的声明中，鲍威尔重申了美联储将在未来几个月继续打击通胀的极端鹰派观点。</p>
<p>在他的声明后，分析师开始预计美联储将在下次会议上加息 0.50%。如果发生这种情况，美联储的终端利率可能在今年晚些时候达到 6%。这远高于分析师的预期。</p>
<p>美联储还承诺将利率维持在高于预期的水平更长时间。这些举措将影响香港，香港当局需要维持其货币的钉住汇率。随着美元指数飙升，香港金融管理局可能会继续干预金融市场。</p>
<p>恒生指数一片红色，所有股票均大幅下跌。石药集团表现最差，股价下跌超过 6.11%。碧桂园服务的股价回落超过 5.87%，而龙湖和碧桂园控股的股价均下跌超过 5%。美团、小米、京东和阿里健康等科技股也大幅下跌。</p>
<h2>恒生指数预测</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/hang-seng-index-1024x502.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="502" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/hang-seng-index-1024x502.png"/></p>
<p>日线图显示，恒生指数在过去几个月中处于强烈的熊市趋势。它已跌破 23.6% 的斐波那契回撤位，而 50 日和 25 日的指数移动平均线（EMA）形成了熊市交叉形态。该指数已跌破一目均衡表云层。</p>
<p>因此，该指数可能会继续下跌，卖方目标为 H$18,670 的 50% 回撤位，约低于当前水平 7%。若突破关键阻力位 H$20,850，将会否定熊市观点。</p>
<p>关于恒生指数进入稳定失衡期的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

碧桂园

石药集团

<p>恒生指数大幅下跌，回落至 20,000 港元，较年初至今的高点下跌超过 11%。此次下跌归因于中国温和的增长预测以及美联储对利率的鹰派立场。指数中的所有股票均出现下跌，其中石药集团和碧桂园服务表现最差。预计该指数将继续保持看跌趋势，可能跌至 18,670 港元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hong-kong-gdp-740x416.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hong-kong-gdp-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>The Hang Seng index nosedived on Wednesday as investors braced for a new normal in the market. The closely-watched Hong Kong index retreated to the key support at H$20,000, as global equities suffered a major meltdown. It has pulled back by more than 11% from the year-to-date high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港恒生指数在周三大幅下跌，投资者为市场的新常态做好准备。备受关注的香港指数回落至关键支撑位 H$20,000，全球股市遭遇重大崩溃。与年初至今的高点相比，已回落超过 11%。</p>
</div><h2>China growth and Fed statement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国经济增长与美联储声明</h2>
</div><p>The Hang Seng index pulled back sharply as investors reflected on the ongoing Communist party congress in Beijing. In a statement, the party said that they expect the economy to grow by 5% in 2023 after it expanded by 3% in 2022. This growth forecast was seen as being relatively modest compared to its historic standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资者关注北京正在进行的共产党大会，恒生指数大幅回落。党内在一份声明中表示，预计 2023 年经济将增长 5%，而 2022 年增长为 3%。这一增长预测相较于历史标准被视为相对温和。</p>
</div><p>The other main catalyst for the Hang Seng was the latest statement by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair. In a statement on Tuesday, Powell reiterated the extremely hawkish view that the Fed will continue fighting the inflation battle in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>恒生指数的另一个主要催化剂是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新声明。在周二的声明中，鲍威尔重申了美联储将在未来几个月继续打击通胀的极端鹰派观点。</p>
</div><p>After his statement, analysts started pricing in a situation where the Fed hikes rates by 0.50% in the coming meeting. If this happens, the Fed will likely see the terminal interest rate reach 6% later this year. This is much higher than what analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他的声明后，分析师开始预计美联储将在下次会议上加息 0.50%。如果发生这种情况，美联储的终端利率可能在今年晚些时候达到 6%。这远高于分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>The Fed has also committed to maintaining interest rates higher for longer than expected. These actions will impact Hong Kong, where authorities need to maintain a peg of their currency. With the US dollar index surging, there is a likelihood that the HKMA will continue to intervene in the financial market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储还承诺将利率维持在高于预期的水平更长时间。这些举措将影响香港，香港当局需要维持其货币的钉住汇率。随着美元指数飙升，香港金融管理局可能会继续干预金融市场。</p>
</div><p>It was a sea of red in the Hang Seng index as all stocks plunged. CSPC Pharma was the worst performer as the shares plunged by more than 6.11%. Country Garden Services shares retreated by over 5.87% while Longfor and Country Garden Holdings fell by over 5%. Tech stocks like Meituan, Xiaomi, JD, and, Alibaba Health also plunged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>恒生指数一片红色，所有股票均大幅下跌。石药集团表现最差，股价下跌超过 6.11%。碧桂园服务的股价回落超过 5.87%，而龙湖和碧桂园控股的股价均下跌超过 5%。美团、小米、京东和阿里健康等科技股也大幅下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Hang Seng index forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>恒生指数预测</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/hang-seng-index-1024x502.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/hang-seng-index-1024x502.png"/></p>
<p>On the daily chart shows that the Hang Seng index has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It has moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level while the 50-day and 25-day exponential moving averages (EMA) have made a bearish crossover pattern. The index has declined below the Ichimoku cloud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，恒生指数在过去几个月中处于强烈的熊市趋势。它已跌破 23.6% 的斐波那契回撤位，而 50 日和 25 日的指数移动平均线（EMA）形成了熊市交叉形态。该指数已跌破一目均衡表云层。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the index will likely continue falling as sellers target the 50% retracement level at H$18,670, which is about 7% below the current level. A move above the key resistance at H$20,850 will invalidate the bearish view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该指数可能会继续下跌，卖方目标为 H$18,670 的 50% 回撤位，约低于当前水平 7%。若突破关键阻力位 H$20,850，将会否定熊市观点。</p>
</div><p>The post Hang Seng index enters a period of stable disequilibrium appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于恒生指数进入稳定失衡期的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Hang Seng index enters a period of stable disequilibrium

- 恒生指数大幅下跌至 H$20,000，年初至今跌幅超过 11%。  
- 投资者关注中国经济增长预期及美联储鹰派言论。  
- 分析师预测，未来可能加息 0.50%，终端利率达 6%。

恒生指数进入一个稳定失衡的时期