<p>（重复周五的专栏，以便为更多订阅者提供，无任何更改）</p>
<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 19 日（路透社）——对于锂、镍和钴等电池金属来说，这是第三个艰难的年份，因为这三种市场都在努力消化 2022 年价格飙升后涌现的供应潮。</p>
<p>然而，电动汽车（EV）革命仍在继续。对电池及其所需金属的需求仍以超高速增长。</p>
<p>只需时间问题，需求势头就会吸收当前的供应过剩。</p>
<p>至少这是人们的希望。</p>
<p>然而，中国公司正在进行一场同步的技术革命，努力开发出更强大且成本更低的电池。</p>
<p>电池化学正在快速演变，已经很明显，并非每种电池金属都能在材料的激烈竞争中获胜。</p>
<h3>中国持续推进</h3>
<p>通往电气化的道路目前可能颠簸不平。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已撤回拜登政府的电动汽车补贴计划，欧盟也将燃油车的淘汰时间推迟至 2035 年之后。</p>
<p>但基本势头并未减弱。根据咨询公司 Rho Motion 的数据，2025 年前 11 个月全球电动汽车销量同比增长 21%，达到 1850 万辆。</p>
<p>中国仍然是全球技术转型的驱动力。作为全球最大的电动汽车市场，今年增长了 19%，占全球销量的 62%。</p>
<p>因此，中国公司在电池化学革命的前沿并不令人感到意外。</p>
<p>中国电动汽车市场现在主导的是使用磷酸铁锂（LFP）化学的电池。它们比使用镍、钴和锰（NCM）组合的电池更安全、更便宜，且性能差距正在逐步缩小。</p>
<p>去年，LFP 占全球电动汽车电池的 48%。麦格理银行预计，到 2029 年这一比例将上升至 65%，相比之前 49% 的预测大幅上调。</p>
<h3>镍和钴在慢车道</h3>
<p>这显然对印度尼西亚和刚果民主共和国这两个世界最大镍和钴生产国来说不是好消息。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚未能调整其生产增长以反映新的电池现实，导致金属过剩如海啸般涌现。</p>
<p>该国越来越多的镍正流向伦敦金属交易所（LME）的仓库，而不是电池前驱体工厂。</p>
<p>LME 仓库库存——注册和非注册——已激增至 338,900 吨。</p>
<p>本月，LME 镍价已跌破每吨 15,000 美元的长期支撑位，这是自 2021 年以来第二次，这给印度尼西亚政策制定者施加了更多压力，以限制该国的镍热潮。</p>
<p>钴市场同样处于长期供过于求的状态，价格在刚果于 2 月份暂停出口并在 10 月份引入配额制度之前也遭遇了重创。</p>
<p>新规则的缓慢实施使得钴中间体的运输完全停滞，无法送达中国炼油厂。</p>
<p>刚果的供应纪律可能会变成供应冲击。这对已经在镍基电池化学中挣扎的金属来说可能代价高昂。</p>
<p>汽车制造商对钴的价格波动历史和刚果手工采矿行业相关的伦理问题自然感到谨慎。</p>
<p>今年的事件只会加深这些担忧，并加速尝试将钴排除在电池之外的努力。</p>
<h3>锂主导……暂时</h3>
<p>锂仍然是电池中的主导金属，中国向 LFP 化学的转变进一步巩固了其中心地位。</p>
<p>咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 估计，9 月份全球道路上部署了 60,900 吨锂，同比增长 25%，与电池总部署的增长率相匹配。钴和镍的部署增长分别为 15% 和 10%。</p>
<p>但锂本身正面临新的电池挑战。</p>
<p>中国电池巨头宁德时代（CATL）正在开创钠离子电池的发展。最新版本 Naxtra 几乎可以与取代 NCM 化学的 LFP 电池的效率相媲美，并且成本更低。</p>
<p>宁德时代的亿万富翁创始人曾毓群认为，钠离子电池有可能取代多达一半的 LFP 电池市场。</p>
<p>对锂生产商来说，幸运的是，这种金属是电网储能电池的首选材料，这是一个快速增长的需求来源。</p>
<p>根据 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 的分析，2025 年前 10 个月全球电池储能系统的安装量同比增长了 38%。</p>
<p>反映出从道路到电网的转变，福特汽车（Ford Motor）刚刚宣布对电动汽车投资 190 亿美元，同时承诺为储能系统的电池投入 20 亿美元。</p>
<h3>硬连线</h3>
<p>自 2022 年以来，电动汽车电池材料的格局发生了显著变化，当时锂、镍和钴的价格都在飙升，假设这三者将是电动出行的核心。</p>
<p>但这已不再是确定的事情。电池化学仍在以惊人的速度演变，得益于前所未有的研发。</p>
<p>几乎不可能预测 10 年后将为电动汽车提供动力的是什么。</p>
<p>不过有一点是肯定的：铜仍将是连接车辆和充电基础设施的必需品。铝也很可能继续作为车身框架的首选材料，因为其轻便特性。</p>
<p>虽然电池金属的命运取决于不断演变的阴极组合，但在电动汽车革命中，最终的金属赢家可能是那些能够促进而非直接为车辆提供动力的金属。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社的开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。关注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
<p>伦敦金属交易所镍库存因印尼过剩而激增</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1350" height="682" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm"/></p>
<p>中国从刚果的钴进口在出口暂停后大幅下滑</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1216" height="630" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0"/></p>
<p>电动车电池中的化学成分变化</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2088" height="1178" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4"/></p>
<p>锂价仍因过剩而受到压制</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2518" height="1140" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V"/></p>
<p>（编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
<p>)</p>

宁德时代

<p>电池金属市场，包括锂、镍和钴，尽管电动汽车需求增长，但由于供应过剩面临挑战。中国向磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池的转变正在影响镍和钴的需求。印度尼西亚和刚果面临供应过剩问题，而锂仍然占主导地位，但面临钠离子技术的竞争。全球电动汽车销售和电池储能系统正在增长，中国在技术转型中处于领先地位。电池材料的市场格局正在迅速演变，影响市场动态和投资策略</p>

<p>(Repeats Friday’s column for additional subscribers without any changes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重复周五的专栏，以便为更多订阅者提供，无任何更改）</p>
</div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - It’s been a third tough year for battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt as all three markets struggle to absorb the wave of supply that followed the 2022 price boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 19 日（路透社）——对于锂、镍和钴等电池金属来说，这是第三个艰难的年份，因为这三种市场都在努力消化 2022 年价格飙升后涌现的供应潮。</p>
</div><p>Yet the electric vehicle (EV) revolution rolls on. Demand for batteries and the metals that make them work is still growing at a super-charged pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，电动汽车（EV）革命仍在继续。对电池及其所需金属的需求仍以超高速增长。</p>
</div><p>It should only be a matter of time before demand momentum absorbs the current supply glut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只需时间问题，需求势头就会吸收当前的供应过剩。</p>
</div><p>At least that was the hope.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少这是人们的希望。</p>
</div><p>Chinese companies, however, are embarked on a simultaneous technological revolution as they strive to develop ever more powerful batteries at ever lower cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，中国公司正在进行一场同步的技术革命，努力开发出更强大且成本更低的电池。</p>
</div><p>Battery chemistry is evolving fast and it’s already clear that not every battery metal is going to be a winner in the intense competition between materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电池化学正在快速演变，已经很明显，并非每种电池金属都能在材料的激烈竞争中获胜。</p>
</div><h3>CHINA POWERS ON</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>中国持续推进</h3>
</div><p>The road to electrification may be currently bumpy. U.S. President Donald Trump has rolled back the Biden administration’s EV subsidy schemes, and the European Union has deferred its phase-out of combustion-engine vehicles beyond 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通往电气化的道路目前可能颠簸不平。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已撤回拜登政府的电动汽车补贴计划，欧盟也将燃油车的淘汰时间推迟至 2035 年之后。</p>
</div><p>But the underlying momentum is undiminished. Global EV sales increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.5 million vehicles in the first 11 months of 2025, according to consultancy Rho Motion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但基本势头并未减弱。根据咨询公司 Rho Motion 的数据，2025 年前 11 个月全球电动汽车销量同比增长 21%，达到 1850 万辆。</p>
</div><p>China remains the driver of the global technology shift. The world’s largest EV market has grown by another 19% this year, accounting for 62% of global sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国仍然是全球技术转型的驱动力。作为全球最大的电动汽车市场，今年增长了 19%，占全球销量的 62%。</p>
</div><p>It should therefore be no great surprise that it is Chinese companies that are at the forefront of the revolution in battery chemistry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，中国公司在电池化学革命的前沿并不令人感到意外。</p>
</div><p>The Chinese EV market is now dominated by batteries using lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry. They are safer and cheaper than those using a combination of nickel, cobalt and manganese (NCM) and the performance gap is steadily narrowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国电动汽车市场现在主导的是使用磷酸铁锂（LFP）化学的电池。它们比使用镍、钴和锰（NCM）组合的电池更安全、更便宜，且性能差距正在逐步缩小。</p>
</div><p>LFP accounted for 48% of global EV batteries last year. Macquarie Bank expects that share to rise to 65% by 2029, a sharp upwards revision from its previous 49% forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，LFP 占全球电动汽车电池的 48%。麦格理银行预计，到 2029 年这一比例将上升至 65%，相比之前 49% 的预测大幅上调。</p>
</div><h3>NICKEL AND COBALT IN THE SLOW LANE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>镍和钴在慢车道</h3>
</div><p>This is clearly not good news for either Indonesia or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world’s largest producers of nickel and cobalt respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这显然对印度尼西亚和刚果民主共和国这两个世界最大镍和钴生产国来说不是好消息。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia has failed to temper its production growth to reflect the new battery reality, generating a tsunami of surplus metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚未能调整其生产增长以反映新的电池现实，导致金属过剩如海啸般涌现。</p>
</div><p>Ever more of the country’s nickel has been heading for a London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse rather than a battery precursor plant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该国越来越多的镍正流向伦敦金属交易所（LME）的仓库，而不是电池前驱体工厂。</p>
</div><p>LME warehouse stocks - registered and off-warrant - have mushroomed to 338,900 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 仓库库存——注册和非注册——已激增至 338,900 吨。</p>
</div><p>The LME nickel price has this month broken below long-term support at $15,000 per ton for only the second time since 2021, piling more pressure on Indonesian policy-makers to restrain the country’s nickel boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，LME 镍价已跌破每吨 15,000 美元的长期支撑位，这是自 2021 年以来第二次，这给印度尼西亚政策制定者施加了更多压力，以限制该国的镍热潮。</p>
</div><p>The cobalt market is in a similar state of chronic oversupply and prices were equally bombed out before Congo suspended exports in February and introduced a quota system in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>钴市场同样处于长期供过于求的状态，价格在刚果于 2 月份暂停出口并在 10 月份引入配额制度之前也遭遇了重创。</p>
</div><p>Slow implementation of the new rules has brought shipments of cobalt intermediates to Chinese refineries to a complete halt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新规则的缓慢实施使得钴中间体的运输完全停滞，无法送达中国炼油厂。</p>
</div><p>Congo’s supply discipline risks becoming a supply shock. That could prove costly for a metal that is already struggling to hold its share even within nickel-based battery chemistries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刚果的供应纪律可能会变成供应冲击。这对已经在镍基电池化学中挣扎的金属来说可能代价高昂。</p>
</div><p>Automakers are understandably wary of cobalt’s history of price volatility and the ethical problems associated with Congo’s artisanal mining sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汽车制造商对钴的价格波动历史和刚果手工采矿行业相关的伦理问题自然感到谨慎。</p>
</div><p>This year’s events will only reinforce those concerns and risk accelerating attempts to engineer cobalt out of the battery equation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年的事件只会加深这些担忧，并加速尝试将钴排除在电池之外的努力。</p>
</div><h3>LITHIUM DOMINANT … FOR NOW</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>锂主导……暂时</h3>
</div><p>Lithium remains the dominant metal in batteries and China’s pivot to LFP chemistry reinforces its centrality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锂仍然是电池中的主导金属，中国向 LFP 化学的转变进一步巩固了其中心地位。</p>
</div><p>Consultancy Adamas Intelligence estimates 60,900 tons of lithium were deployed onto roads globally in September, a 25% year-on-year increase that matches the growth rate of total battery deployment. Cobalt and nickel lagged with deployment growth of 15% and 10% respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 估计，9 月份全球道路上部署了 60,900 吨锂，同比增长 25%，与电池总部署的增长率相匹配。钴和镍的部署增长分别为 15% 和 10%。</p>
</div><p>But lithium itself is facing a new battery challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但锂本身正面临新的电池挑战。</p>
</div><p>Chinese battery giant CATL (300750.SZ) has been pioneering the development of sodium-ion batteries. The latest iteration, Naxtra, will almost match the efficiency of LFP batteries that are displacing NCM chemistries and does so at a lower cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国电池巨头宁德时代（CATL）正在开创钠离子电池的发展。最新版本 Naxtra 几乎可以与取代 NCM 化学的 LFP 电池的效率相媲美，并且成本更低。</p>
</div><p>CATL’s billionaire founder Robin Zeng sees sodium-ion batteries potentially replacing up to half the market for LFP batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宁德时代的亿万富翁创始人曾毓群认为，钠离子电池有可能取代多达一半的 LFP 电池市场。</p>
</div><p>Fortunately for lithium producers, the metal is the material of choice for power-grid storage batteries, a rapidly growing source of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对锂生产商来说，幸运的是，这种金属是电网储能电池的首选材料，这是一个快速增长的需求来源。</p>
</div><p>Global installations of battery energy storage systems jumped by 38% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025, according to analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 的分析，2025 年前 10 个月全球电池储能系统的安装量同比增长了 38%。</p>
</div><p>Reflecting this shift from road to grid, Ford Motor (F.N) has just announced a $19.5 billion charge on EV investments, while simultaneously committing $2 billion to batteries for energy storage systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反映出从道路到电网的转变，福特汽车（Ford Motor）刚刚宣布对电动汽车投资 190 亿美元，同时承诺为储能系统的电池投入 20 亿美元。</p>
</div><h3>HARD WIRED</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>硬连线</h3>
</div><p>The EV battery materials landscape has changed markedly since 2022, when lithium, nickel and cobalt prices were all surging on the assumption that this trio would be core to electric mobility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年以来，电动汽车电池材料的格局发生了显著变化，当时锂、镍和钴的价格都在飙升，假设这三者将是电动出行的核心。</p>
</div><p>That is no longer a certainty. Battery chemistry is still evolving at breakneck speed on the back of unprecedented research and development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这已不再是确定的事情。电池化学仍在以惊人的速度演变，得益于前所未有的研发。</p>
</div><p>It is almost impossible to predict what will be powering electric vehicles in 10 years’ time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎不可能预测 10 年后将为电动汽车提供动力的是什么。</p>
</div><p>One thing is for sure though: Copper will still be essential to wiring both vehicle and charging infrastructure. It is also highly likely that aluminium will remain the material of choice for body frames, thanks to its light weight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过有一点是肯定的：铜仍将是连接车辆和充电基础设施的必需品。铝也很可能继续作为车身框架的首选材料，因为其轻便特性。</p>
</div><p>While the fortunes of battery metals are dependent on the continuously evolving cathode mix, the ultimate metallic winners in the EV revolution might be those that enable, rather than directly power the vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然电池金属的命运取决于不断演变的阴极组合，但在电动汽车革命中，最终的金属赢家可能是那些能够促进而非直接为车辆提供动力的金属。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社的开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。关注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
</div><p>LME nickel stocks surge on Indonesian oversupply</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦金属交易所镍库存因印尼过剩而激增</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm"/></p>
<p>China’s cobalt imports from Congo slump after export halt</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国从刚果的钴进口在出口暂停后大幅下滑</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0"/></p>
<p>Changing chemistry in EV batteries</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车电池中的化学成分变化</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4"/></p>
<p>Lithium price still grounded by oversupply</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锂价仍因过剩而受到压制</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

投资回报率 - 电动汽车革命持续推进，但电池金属失去活力：Andy Home