<p>每年这个时候，经济学家和市场专家们都会大量撰写关于未来一年股票预测和经济繁荣/衰退警告的文章。由于似乎有异常数量的衰退预测出现在未来一年，包括一些来自信誉良好的来源，我认为我们应该探讨一个问题：美国在 2026 年会经历重大经济冲击吗？</p>
<p>华尔街的经济学家往往比较保守，因此通常不愿意预测衰退（除非经济指标糟糕到无法避免使用 “R” 字）。目前，我认为经济学家用来推测六到十二个月前景的大多数指标状况良好到尚可，尽管有几个例外。</p>
<p>[text_ad]</p>
<p>最显著的是，失业率显示出一些恶化的迹象。随着年末的临近，职位增长正在放缓，自四月以来，总非农就业人数几乎没有变化。根据最新的 ADP 国家就业报告，美国私营部门在 11 月实际上减少了 32,000 个职位，这是自 2023 年 3 月以来的最大降幅。</p>
<p>更重要的是，裁员和裁员警告达到了十年来的最高水平（尤其是在制造业、商业/信息服务和建筑业），而官方失业率在下半年上升，9 月份达到了 4.4%——这是四年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>但是，由于劳工统计局和国家经济研究局发布的指标可能需要在衰退正式开始后长达一年才能确认，因此寻找早期警告信号的工作是无止境的。这就是由会议委员会发布的广受关注的领先经济指数（LEI）进入视野的原因。</p>
<p>LEI 传统上是一个准确的衰退警告指标，令人担忧的是，当它在二月到八月之间下降近 3% 时，发出了衰退信号，跌破了历史上预示衰退开始的水平。（顺便提一下，今年的关税部分被归咎于最近 LEI 读数中反映的经济恶化。）</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256"/></p>
<p><em>来源：</em> <em>会议委员会</em></p>
<p>公平地说，衰退的预测 notoriously 难以准确，老生常谈的 “经济学家正确预测了过去九次衰退中的 22 次” 浮现在脑海中。引用一位特别愤世嫉俗的（未具名）评论员的话，“这是最长的衰退预测，至今未能实现——已经三年了！” 正如这种情绪所暗示的，押注 2026 年美国会出现衰退可以被视为一种统计上的不可能。</p>
<p>撇开 LEI 的假定价值，另一种更可靠的衰退指标是由里士满联邦储备银行制定的。它是 Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm 风格的衰退指标（简称 “S.O.S.” 指标），基于投保失业率。用里士满联邦储备银行的话说，“每周的 S.O.S.指标在过去五十年中被证明能够提供准确和及时的衰退信号，并可能补充其他领先衰退指标的信号。”</p>
<p>S.O.S.指标基于硬数据，具体来说，是持续失业救济申请（批准的失业救济）。相比之下，官方的月度失业率基于对人们所说的家庭调查，这在某些时候可能无法准确反映经济现实。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309"/></p>
<p><em>来源：</em> <em>里士满联邦储备银行</em></p>
<p>目前，持续申请人数已接近两百万，S.O.S.指标已达到触发经典 “衰退” 信号的一半……这也意味着它距离不触发该信号也只有一半的距离。但为了衰退鹰派的利益，如果 S.O.S.的当前变化率持续下去，衰退信号可能会在二月或三月出现。</p>
<p>至于我，虽然我并不那么教条地做出官方预测，但我倾向于持温和的观点，即美国经济将再次度过失业风暴，明年避免衰退。我个人用来判断经济状态的指标严格基于股市（使用 Ed Yardeni 的格言 “衰退导致熊市”，这意味着任何经济恶化将迅速反映在股价中）。</p>
<p>也就是说，我目前没有看到市场对未来可预见的衰退感到担忧的证据。经济敏感的银行（包括区域银行）和经纪/交易商股票仍然表现良好，而对利率更敏感的股票也显示出相当程度的强劲。</p>
<p>然而，如果 2026 年真的出现衰退，我相信我们会在市场上得到 “预警” 信号（主要表现为经济敏感的银行和经纪/交易商股票的明显表现不佳），这将给我们足够的时间来准备。更重要的是，我相信_Cabot Turnaround Letter_投资组合在即使是严峻的经济环境中也相对良好，因为它对周期性股票的暴露相对有限，对防御性问题的暴露较强。</p>
<p>[author_ad]</p>

<p>经济学家和市场专家预测 2026 年可能会出现衰退，一些指标如就业率和领先经济指数（LEI）显示出经济放缓的迹象。然而，基于失业申请的里士满联邦储备银行的指标尚未完全发出衰退的信号。尽管一些专家保持谨慎，但其他人认为美国经济可能会避免衰退，因为当前的市场状况并未反映出显著的担忧</p>

<p>It’s that time of the year when economists and market mavens spill an abundance of ink making year-ahead stock forecasts and boom/bust warnings. As there seems to be an abnormal amount of recession predictions for the year ahead—including a few from some reputable sources—I think we should examine the question: Will the U.S. witness a major economic shock in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每年这个时候，经济学家和市场专家们都会大量撰写关于未来一年股票预测和经济繁荣/衰退警告的文章。由于似乎有异常数量的衰退预测出现在未来一年，包括一些来自信誉良好的来源，我认为我们应该探讨一个问题：美国在 2026 年会经历重大经济冲击吗？</p>
</div><p>Wall Street economists tend to be a conservative lot, and as such, tend to shy away from predicting recessions (that is, unless the economic indicators are too atrocious to avoid using the “R” word). Right now, I’d say that most of the metrics economists use to divine the six-to-12-month outlook are in good-to-decent shape, although there are a couple of exceptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的经济学家往往比较保守，因此通常不愿意预测衰退（除非经济指标糟糕到无法避免使用 “R” 字）。目前，我认为经济学家用来推测六到十二个月前景的大多数指标状况良好到尚可，尽管有几个例外。</p>
</div><p>[text_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><p>Most notably, the employment rate is showing some signs of deterioration. Job growth is slowing as we head into the year’s end, with total nonfarm payroll employment showing little change since April. And according to the latest ADP National Employment Report, the U.S. private sector actually shed 32,000 jobs in November, which was the biggest drop since March 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最显著的是，失业率显示出一些恶化的迹象。随着年末的临近，职位增长正在放缓，自四月以来，总非农就业人数几乎没有变化。根据最新的 ADP 国家就业报告，美国私营部门在 11 月实际上减少了 32,000 个职位，这是自 2023 年 3 月以来的最大降幅。</p>
</div><p>What’s more, layoffs and layoff warnings have hit their highest levels in a decade (particularly in manufacturing, business/information services and construction), while the official unemployment rate has increased over the second half of the year, reaching 4.4% in September—its highest level in four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，裁员和裁员警告达到了十年来的最高水平（尤其是在制造业、商业/信息服务和建筑业），而官方失业率在下半年上升，9 月份达到了 4.4%——这是四年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>But since the metrics published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Bureau of Economic Research can take up to a year after a recession actually starts to formally identify it, the search for early warning signals is relentless. That’s where the widely watched Leading Economic Index (LEI) published by the Conference Board enters the picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，由于劳工统计局和国家经济研究局发布的指标可能需要在衰退正式开始后长达一年才能确认，因此寻找早期警告信号的工作是无止境的。这就是由会议委员会发布的广受关注的领先经济指数（LEI）进入视野的原因。</p>
</div><p>The LEI has traditionally been an accurate recession warning gauge, and alarmingly, it flashed a recession signal when it declined by nearly 3% between February and August, slipping below the level that historically presages the onset of recession. (As an aside, this year’s tariffs were partly blamed for the economic deterioration reflected in recent LEI readings.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LEI 传统上是一个准确的衰退警告指标，令人担忧的是，当它在二月到八月之间下降近 3% 时，发出了衰退信号，跌破了历史上预示衰退开始的水平。（顺便提一下，今年的关税部分被归咎于最近 LEI 读数中反映的经济恶化。）</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzFhLzNjL2U4MTQ4ZTE1NGNhZDlhOTk1NWQ1ZTMwODY1NGMvY29uZmVyZW5jZS1ib2FyZC1sZWktbGVhZGluZy1lY29ub21pYy1pbmRpY2F0b3JzLTEyLTI1LnBuZw" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F1a%2F3c%2Fe8148e154cad9a9955d5e308654c%2Fconference-board-lei-leading-economic-indicators-12-25.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source:</em> <em>The Conference Board</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：</em> <em>会议委员会</em></p>
</div><p>To be fair, recessions are notoriously difficult to predict with any accuracy, with the old bromide that “economists have correctly predicted 22 of the last nine recessions” coming to mind. And to quote a particularly jaded (unnamed) pundit, “This is the longest recession prediction ever to never come to fruition—three years and counting!” As this sentiment implies, betting that a recession comes to the U.S. in 2026 can be regarded as something of a statistical improbability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，衰退的预测 notoriously 难以准确，老生常谈的 “经济学家正确预测了过去九次衰退中的 22 次” 浮现在脑海中。引用一位特别愤世嫉俗的（未具名）评论员的话，“这是最长的衰退预测，至今未能实现——已经三年了！” 正如这种情绪所暗示的，押注 2026 年美国会出现衰退可以被视为一种统计上的不可能。</p>
</div><p>Putting aside the putative value of the LEI, another, more reliable recession indicator was devised by the Richmond branch of the Federal Reserve. It’s the Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm-style recession indicator (“S.O.S.” indicator for short), and it’s based on the insured unemployment rate. In the words of the Richmond Fed, “The weekly S.O.S. indicator has been demonstrated to provide accurate and timely signals of recession over the past fifty years, and may complement the signals of other leading recession indicators.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撇开 LEI 的假定价值，另一种更可靠的衰退指标是由里士满联邦储备银行制定的。它是 Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm 风格的衰退指标（简称 “S.O.S.” 指标），基于投保失业率。用里士满联邦储备银行的话说，“每周的 S.O.S.指标在过去五十年中被证明能够提供准确和及时的衰退信号，并可能补充其他领先衰退指标的信号。”</p>
</div><p>The S.O.S. indicator is based on hard data, specifically, continuing unemployment claims (approved jobless benefits). By contrast, the official monthly unemployment rate is based on a household survey of what people say, which at times can be a poor reflection of economic reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S.O.S.指标基于硬数据，具体来说，是持续失业救济申请（批准的失业救济）。相比之下，官方的月度失业率基于对人们所说的家庭调查，这在某些时候可能无法准确反映经济现实。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzIzLzQ3L2VhMTg2Njg1NDg1MWIxNjlkZGIyN2E5MmFlYmYvc29zLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1pbmRpY2F0b3IucG5n" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F23%2F47%2Fea1866854851b169ddb27a92aebf%2Fsos-recession-indicator.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source:</em> <em>Richmond Fed</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：</em> <em>里士满联邦储备银行</em></p>
</div><p>As it now stands, with continuing claims having reached nearly two million, the S.O.S. indicator is halfway to triggering a classic “recession” signal…which is also another way of saying it’s halfway to NOT triggering such a signal. But for the benefit of the recession hawks, if the current rate of change in the S.O.S. continues, a recession signal would likely occur in February, or March at the latest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，持续申请人数已接近两百万，S.O.S.指标已达到触发经典 “衰退” 信号的一半……这也意味着它距离不触发该信号也只有一半的距离。但为了衰退鹰派的利益，如果 S.O.S.的当前变化率持续下去，衰退信号可能会在二月或三月出现。</p>
</div><p>As for me, while I’m not dogmatic enough to make an official prediction, I tend to favor the dovish outlook that the U.S. economy will once again weather the unemployment storm and dodge a recession next year. My personal indicators for discerning the state of the economy are strictly equity market-based (using Ed Yardeni’s maxim that “recessions cause bear markets,” which implies that any economic deterioration will quickly manifest in stock prices).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于我，虽然我并不那么教条地做出官方预测，但我倾向于持温和的观点，即美国经济将再次度过失业风暴，明年避免衰退。我个人用来判断经济状态的指标严格基于股市（使用 Ed Yardeni 的格言 “衰退导致熊市”，这意味着任何经济恶化将迅速反映在股价中）。</p>
</div><p>That said, I currently see no evidence that Mr. Market is worried about a recession in the foreseeable future. The economically sensitive banks (including regional banks) and broker/dealer stocks still look good, while the even more interest rate-sensitive equities are showing a fair degree of strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，我目前没有看到市场对未来可预见的衰退感到担忧的证据。经济敏感的银行（包括区域银行）和经纪/交易商股票仍然表现良好，而对利率更敏感的股票也显示出相当程度的强劲。</p>
</div><p>However, in the event that a recession does rear its ugly head in 2026, I’m confident we’ll get a “heads-up” signal in the market (chiefly in the form of conspicuous underperformance in the economically sensitive bank and broker/dealer stocks) that will give us sufficient time to prepare. More importantly, I believe the <em>Cabot Turnaround Letter</em> portfolio is fairly well positioned for even a harsh economic climate, given its somewhat limited exposure to cyclical stocks and strong exposure to defensive-oriented issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果 2026 年真的出现衰退，我相信我们会在市场上得到 “预警” 信号（主要表现为经济敏感的银行和经纪/交易商股票的明显表现不佳），这将给我们足够的时间来准备。更重要的是，我相信_Cabot Turnaround Letter_投资组合在即使是严峻的经济环境中也相对良好，因为它对周期性股票的暴露相对有限，对防御性问题的暴露较强。</p>
</div><p>[author_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[author_ad]</p>
</div>

2026 年是否会迎来经济衰退？