<p>作者：DeFi 投资者 译者：山欧巴，金色财经</p>
<p>毫不夸张地说，2025 年对大多数加密专业人士来说是一个残酷的年份。</p>
<p>我自己没有预料到年末会出现如此毁灭性的市场崩盘。但作为交易者和投资者，我们的责任是适应不断变化的市场。</p>
<p>不作为或拒绝接受现实从来不是一个可行的策略。我想分享一些想法：为什么这个周期如此难以把握，以及我对未来的展望。</p>
<h2>一、项目和代币数量的爆炸性增长</h2>
<p>在 2017 年，加密市场上只有几百个项目。到 2021 年，这个数字增加了十倍，达到了几千个。</p>
<p>到 2025 年，由于像 Pump Fun 这样的零门槛代币发行平台，市场上的代币数量激增至数百万个。</p>
<p>随着大量项目团队涌入竞争市场关注度，流动性不可避免地在大量代币中过度分散，导致资金严重稀释。同时，代币经济模型的掠夺性特征愈发明显。</p>
<p>虽然在这个周期中，代币的整体实用性有所改善，这是值得称赞的进步，但过去几年几乎所有新发行的代币都遵循了 “低流通供应 + 高完全稀释估值” 的趋势。低流通供应 + 高完全稀释估值是指代币在发行时流通供应极低（通常不超过 10%），但完全稀释估值却非常高。低流通供应人为地制造了稀缺性，减少了 TGE 早期阶段的卖压，从而推高价格。然而，一旦代币解锁潮来临，大量新供应涌入市场不可避免地导致价格崩溃，给早期投资者带来巨额损失。多年来，几乎每一个新发行的代币都遭遇了这样的命运。</p>
<h2>二、积分系统人为膨胀数据泡沫，造成产品市场契合的虚假印象</h2>
<p>今年在币安上市的新代币的平均投资回报率仅为 0.25 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：cryptorank.io</p>
<p>在 Bybit 交易所，这一数字甚至更低，仅为 0.11 倍。</p>
<p>这意味着过去一年在这些领先的中心化交易所上市的新代币平均下跌了 75%-89%！显然，这一现象的一个原因是创业失败屡见不鲜。然而，我坚信这些代币在初始发行阶段表现不佳的核心原因在于积分制的普遍存在。许多尚未发行代币且缺乏优质产品的项目通过积分制人为制造虚假需求，以便以高完全稀释估值发行代币。想要吸引大量挖矿用户并在短期内提升 TVL？引入积分制。想要暂时占据加密社区话语权的高地？推出与 Kaito 相关的活动。当然，我并不是完全反对积分或活动。如果使用得当，它们可以成为优秀的增长工具——例如，Hyperliquid 项目通过积分制成功建立了庞大的用户社区。问题在于，许多甚至还未推出产品的项目——PMF——也在利用积分系统故意夸大其总锁仓价值和交易量，单纯为了在代币上市时以高价出售。在代币发行之前，这些缺乏真实价值的项目通过积分系统 “成功获得人气”，但实际上并没有解决任何真实需求。一旦代币上市，挖矿用户将大量撤出，大多数人将停止使用该项目的产品，代币价格将暴跌并逐渐变得毫无价值。这种策略反复剥削散户投资者，最终导致他们对新发行的代币完全失去兴趣——这完全可以理解。更糟糕的是，2022 年 FTX 和 Terra Luna 的崩溃已经导致许多人对加密行业失去信任。</p>
<h2>三、市场关注点从加密转向人工智能</h2>
<p>每个牛市都有其泡沫行业。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，这个泡沫是人工智能——就像 2021 年的加密货币一样。各方资本正以离谱的估值涌入 AI 公司，只为乘上这股普遍乐观的浪潮。</p>
<p>在 2017 年和 2021 年，大家都相信加密货币将改变世界。在 2025 年，大家都相信人工智能将重写人类的未来。</p>
<p>在我看来，这两个行业无疑都有改变世界的潜力。</p>
<p>但目前，对我们最直接的影响是许多大型投资机构已对加密市场失去兴趣，转而关注人工智能赛道。</p>
<p>要理解当前人工智能泡沫有多夸张，2025 年第一季度，57.9% 的风险投资流向了人工智能公司。与此同时，近年来流向区块链公司的风险投资显著减少。随着资本从加密市场转向人工智能，替代币失去了在 2021 年牛市中获得的投机溢价。我不确定加密行业如何能再次回到聚光灯下，吸引机构和散户投资者。但显然，人工智能的主导地位对加密货币价格产生了负面影响。在我看来，正是这三个因素的结合使得这一市场周期特别困难。接下来，我想谈谈我对未来几年市场趋势的看法，至少是我希望行业能朝着的方向。前进的道路不幸的是，几乎所有替代币在 2025 年都下跌了至少 50%-70%。即便如此，如果现在有人问我：“加密货币死了吗？” 我的回答仍然是绝对没有。稳定币和预测市场就是两个典型例子；它们已经成功融入主流。此外，监管机构对加密行业的欢迎程度比以往任何时候都要高。在稳定币等高度成功的加密领域，已经实现产品市场契合并产生可观收入的项目在未来几年可能会看到显著的估值增长。然而，与此同时，我认为我们在过去几个月经历的市场崩溃在某种程度上是不可避免的。虽然加密市场中确实存在一些高质量的项目和强大的团队，但还有更多的 “空气项目”，其估值高达数十亿美元，却缺乏收入和产品市场契合。加密行业现在真正需要的是更多能够解决普通人（而不仅仅是加密原住民）现实问题的产品。最重要的是，这些产品必须产生稳定的收入，并设计出可持续的代币经济模型，真正惠及代币持有者。只有这样，加密代币才能再次成为有吸引力的投资目标。在过去几年中，大多数去中心化应用（dApps）的商业模式基本上是 “出售自己的代币”。但现在，投机溢价已经消退，流入加密行业的资本越来越稀缺。我相信市场将逐渐回归基本面。你可能会认为这个愿景听起来过于理想化和不可实现。但正是这样的崩溃可能导致许多依赖于出售代币的产品失败，从而导致没有产品或市场契合的项目的消亡，完成行业的洗牌。同时，已经实现盈利的项目生存率要高得多——毕竟，它们的收入足以覆盖相当一部分（甚至全部）的开发成本。逻辑很简单：一个成功的项目首先必须是一个盈利的企业。否则，我绝不会将其代币视为长期投资。当然，总有例外。例如，尽管隐私币缺乏健全和可持续的经济模型，但最近表现异常出色。押注于当前热门叙事（如当前的隐私概念）可能会带来可观的利润，即使忽略基本面。但请记住，大多数叙事的生命周期最多只有几个月。因此，如果你选择参与这样的交易，要小心在炒作消退后成为接盘侠。不幸的是，99% 的加密项目将无法适应新的市场环境，最终消失。这就是为什么现在的投资决策比以往任何时候都需要更仔细的选择。然而，我坚信，对于那些没有离开市场的人来说，仍然会有很多机会。问题不在于加密货币的复苏是否会发生，而在于何时发生。</p>

<p>DeFi Investor 的文章讨论了 2025 年加密市场面临的挑战，强调了项目和代币的爆炸性增长、通过积分系统人为膨胀数据，以及市场关注点向人工智能的转移。作者指出资金的稀释、代币价格的崩溃，以及大型投资机构对加密市场失去兴趣，因为它们转向了人工智能</p>

<p>Author: DeFi Investor Translator: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：DeFi 投资者 译者：山欧巴，金色财经</p>
</div><p>It's no exaggeration to say that 2025 was a brutal year for most crypto professionals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不夸张地说，2025 年对大多数加密专业人士来说是一个残酷的年份。</p>
</div><p>I myself did not anticipate such a devastating market crash at the end of the year. But as traders and investors, our responsibility is to adapt to the ever-changing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我自己没有预料到年末会出现如此毁灭性的市场崩盘。但作为交易者和投资者，我们的责任是适应不断变化的市场。</p>
</div><p>Inaction or refusing to accept reality is never a viable strategy. I would like to share some thoughts: why this cycle is so difficult to grasp, and my outlook for the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不作为或拒绝接受现实从来不是一个可行的策略。我想分享一些想法：为什么这个周期如此难以把握，以及我对未来的展望。</p>
</div><h2>I. Explosive Growth in the Number of Projects and Tokens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一、项目和代币数量的爆炸性增长</h2>
</div><p>In 2017, there were only a few hundred projects in the crypto market. By 2021, this number had increased tenfold to several thousand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2017 年，加密市场上只有几百个项目。到 2021 年，这个数字增加了十倍，达到了几千个。</p>
</div><p>And by 2025, thanks to zero-barrier token issuance platforms like Pump Fun, the number of tokens on the market had surged to millions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2025 年，由于像 Pump Fun 这样的零门槛代币发行平台，市场上的代币数量激增至数百万个。</p>
</div><p>As a large number of project teams flock to compete for market attention, liquidity is inevitably excessively dispersed across a massive number of tokens, leading to severe dilution of funds. At the same time, the predatory nature of token economic models has become increasingly prominent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着大量项目团队涌入竞争市场关注度，流动性不可避免地在大量代币中过度分散，导致资金严重稀释。同时，代币经济模型的掠夺性特征愈发明显。</p>
</div><p>While the overall utility of tokens has improved in this cycle, which is a commendable improvement, almost all newly issued tokens in the past few years have followed the trend of &#34;low circulating supply + high fully diluted valuation.&#34; Low circulating supply + high fully diluted valuation refers to a token having an extremely low circulating supply (usually no more than 10%) at issuance, but a very high fully diluted valuation. Low circulating supply artificially creates scarcity, reducing selling pressure in the early stages of TGE, thus pushing up the price. However, once the token unlocking rush arrives, a large influx of new supply into the market inevitably causes the price to collapse, resulting in huge losses for early investors. For many years, almost every newly issued token has succumbed to this fate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在这个周期中，代币的整体实用性有所改善，这是值得称赞的进步，但过去几年几乎所有新发行的代币都遵循了 “低流通供应 + 高完全稀释估值” 的趋势。低流通供应 + 高完全稀释估值是指代币在发行时流通供应极低（通常不超过 10%），但完全稀释估值却非常高。低流通供应人为地制造了稀缺性，减少了 TGE 早期阶段的卖压，从而推高价格。然而，一旦代币解锁潮来临，大量新供应涌入市场不可避免地导致价格崩溃，给早期投资者带来巨额损失。多年来，几乎每一个新发行的代币都遭遇了这样的命运。</p>
</div><h2>II. The points system artificially inflates the data bubble, creating a false impression of product-market fit</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>二、积分系统人为膨胀数据泡沫，造成产品市场契合的虚假印象</h2>
</div><p>The average return on investment for new tokens listed on Binance this year is only 0.25x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年在币安上市的新代币的平均投资回报率仅为 0.25 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Data source: cryptorank.io</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：cryptorank.io</p>
</div><p>On the Bybit exchange, this figure is even lower, at only 0.11x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Bybit 交易所，这一数字甚至更低，仅为 0.11 倍。</p>
</div><p>This means that new tokens listed on these leading centralized exchanges in the past year have seen an average drop of 75%-89%! Clearly, one reason for this phenomenon is that startup failures are commonplace. However, I firmly believe that the core reason for the dismal performance of these tokens in their initial launch phase lies in the prevalence of points-based systems. Many projects that haven't yet issued tokens and lack quality products artificially create false demand through points-based systems in order to issue tokens at a high fully diluted valuation. Want to attract a large number of mining users and drive up TVL in the short term? Introduce a points-based system. Want to temporarily occupy the high ground in the crypto community's discourse? Launch a Kaito-related campaign. Of course, I'm not entirely against points or campaigns. If used properly, they can be excellent growth tools—for example, the Hyperliquid project successfully built a large user community through a points-based system. The problem is that many projects that haven't even launched a product – PMF – are also taking advantage of the points system to deliberately exaggerate their total locked value and trading volume, solely to sell at a high price when the token is listed. Before the token is issued, these projects lacking real value &#34;successfully gain popularity&#34; solely through the points system, but they haven't actually solved any real needs. Once the token is listed, mining users will withdraw en masse, most people will stop using the project's products, and the token price will plummet and gradually become worthless. This tactic repeatedly fleeces retail investors, ultimately causing them to completely lose interest in newly issued tokens – which is entirely understandable. To make matters worse, the collapses of FTX and Terra Luna in 2022 had already caused many people to lose trust in the crypto industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着过去一年在这些领先的中心化交易所上市的新代币平均下跌了 75%-89%！显然，这一现象的一个原因是创业失败屡见不鲜。然而，我坚信这些代币在初始发行阶段表现不佳的核心原因在于积分制的普遍存在。许多尚未发行代币且缺乏优质产品的项目通过积分制人为制造虚假需求，以便以高完全稀释估值发行代币。想要吸引大量挖矿用户并在短期内提升 TVL？引入积分制。想要暂时占据加密社区话语权的高地？推出与 Kaito 相关的活动。当然，我并不是完全反对积分或活动。如果使用得当，它们可以成为优秀的增长工具——例如，Hyperliquid 项目通过积分制成功建立了庞大的用户社区。问题在于，许多甚至还未推出产品的项目——PMF——也在利用积分系统故意夸大其总锁仓价值和交易量，单纯为了在代币上市时以高价出售。在代币发行之前，这些缺乏真实价值的项目通过积分系统 “成功获得人气”，但实际上并没有解决任何真实需求。一旦代币上市，挖矿用户将大量撤出，大多数人将停止使用该项目的产品，代币价格将暴跌并逐渐变得毫无价值。这种策略反复剥削散户投资者，最终导致他们对新发行的代币完全失去兴趣——这完全可以理解。更糟糕的是，2022 年 FTX 和 Terra Luna 的崩溃已经导致许多人对加密行业失去信任。</p>
</div><h2>III. Market Attention Shifts from Crypto to Artificial Intelligence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三、市场关注点从加密转向人工智能</h2>
</div><p>Every bull market has its own bubble sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个牛市都有其泡沫行业。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, that bubble is artificial intelligence—just like cryptocurrency in 2021. Capital from all sides is rushing into AI companies at outrageous valuations, just to ride this wave of universal optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，这个泡沫是人工智能——就像 2021 年的加密货币一样。各方资本正以离谱的估值涌入 AI 公司，只为乘上这股普遍乐观的浪潮。</p>
</div><p>In 2017 and 2021, everyone believed that cryptocurrency would revolutionize the world. In 2025, everyone believes that artificial intelligence will rewrite the future of humanity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2017 年和 2021 年，大家都相信加密货币将改变世界。在 2025 年，大家都相信人工智能将重写人类的未来。</p>
</div><p>In my view, both industries undoubtedly have the potential to change the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，这两个行业无疑都有改变世界的潜力。</p>
</div><p>But for now, the most direct impact on us is that many large investment institutions have lost interest in the crypto market and turned their attention to the artificial intelligence track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前，对我们最直接的影响是许多大型投资机构已对加密市场失去兴趣，转而关注人工智能赛道。</p>
</div><p>To understand just how exaggerated the current AI bubble is, in the first quarter of 2025, 57.9% of venture capital flowed to AI companies. Meanwhile, venture capital flowing to blockchain companies has shrunk significantly in recent years. As capital shifts from the crypto market to AI, altcoins have lost the speculative premium they gained in the 2021 bull market. I'm not sure how the crypto industry can return to the spotlight and attract institutional and retail investors again. But it's clear that AI's dominance has negatively impacted cryptocurrency prices. In my opinion, it's the combination of these three factors that has made this market cycle particularly difficult. Next, I want to talk about my views on the market trend in the next few years, at least the direction I hope the industry can move in. The Way Forward Unfortunately, almost all altcoins fell by at least 50%-70% in 2025. Even so, if someone were to ask me now, &#34;Is cryptocurrency dead?&#34; my answer would still be absolutely not. Stablecoins and prediction markets are two prime examples; they have successfully integrated into the mainstream. Moreover, regulators are more welcoming to the crypto industry than ever before. In highly successful crypto sectors like stablecoins, projects that have achieved product-market fit and generated substantial revenue are likely to see significant valuation increases in the coming years. However, at the same time, I believe the market crash we've experienced in the past few months was, to some extent, inevitable. While there are indeed some high-quality projects with strong teams in the crypto market, there are many more &#34;air projects&#34; with valuations in the billions of dollars, yet lacking both revenue and product-market fit. What the crypto industry truly needs right now is more products that solve real-world problems for ordinary people (not just crypto natives). Most importantly, these products must generate stable revenue and be designed with sustainable token economic models that genuinely benefit token holders. Only then can crypto tokens become attractive investment targets again. In the past few years, the business model of most dApps has essentially been &#34;selling their own tokens.&#34; But now, the speculative premium has faded, and capital flowing into the crypto industry is increasingly scarce. I believe the market will gradually return to fundamentals. You might think this vision sounds too idealistic and unattainable. But it is precisely a crash like this that could cause many products that rely on selling tokens to fail, leading to the demise of projects with no product or market fit, thus completing an industry reshuffle. Meanwhile, projects that have already achieved profitability have a much higher survival rate—after all, their revenue is enough to cover a significant portion (or even all) of their development costs. The logic is simple: a successful project must first and foremost be a profitable business. Otherwise, I would never consider its token as a long-term investment. Of course, there are always exceptions. For example, privacy coins, despite lacking a sound and sustainable economic model, have recently performed exceptionally well. Betting on current hot narratives (such as the current privacy concept) can potentially yield substantial profits, even ignoring fundamentals. But remember, most narratives have a lifespan of only a few months at most. Therefore, if you choose to participate in such transactions, be wary of becoming a bagholder after the hype dies down. Unfortunately, 99% of crypto projects will be unable to adapt to the new market environment and will eventually disappear. This is why investment decisions now require more careful selection than ever before. However, I firmly believe that there will still be plenty of opportunities for those who haven't left the market. The question isn't whether the cryptocurrency resurgence will happen, but when.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要理解当前人工智能泡沫有多夸张，2025 年第一季度，57.9% 的风险投资流向了人工智能公司。与此同时，近年来流向区块链公司的风险投资显著减少。随着资本从加密市场转向人工智能，替代币失去了在 2021 年牛市中获得的投机溢价。我不确定加密行业如何能再次回到聚光灯下，吸引机构和散户投资者。但显然，人工智能的主导地位对加密货币价格产生了负面影响。在我看来，正是这三个因素的结合使得这一市场周期特别困难。接下来，我想谈谈我对未来几年市场趋势的看法，至少是我希望行业能朝着的方向。前进的道路不幸的是，几乎所有替代币在 2025 年都下跌了至少 50%-70%。即便如此，如果现在有人问我：“加密货币死了吗？” 我的回答仍然是绝对没有。稳定币和预测市场就是两个典型例子；它们已经成功融入主流。此外，监管机构对加密行业的欢迎程度比以往任何时候都要高。在稳定币等高度成功的加密领域，已经实现产品市场契合并产生可观收入的项目在未来几年可能会看到显著的估值增长。然而，与此同时，我认为我们在过去几个月经历的市场崩溃在某种程度上是不可避免的。虽然加密市场中确实存在一些高质量的项目和强大的团队，但还有更多的 “空气项目”，其估值高达数十亿美元，却缺乏收入和产品市场契合。加密行业现在真正需要的是更多能够解决普通人（而不仅仅是加密原住民）现实问题的产品。最重要的是，这些产品必须产生稳定的收入，并设计出可持续的代币经济模型，真正惠及代币持有者。只有这样，加密代币才能再次成为有吸引力的投资目标。在过去几年中，大多数去中心化应用（dApps）的商业模式基本上是 “出售自己的代币”。但现在，投机溢价已经消退，流入加密行业的资本越来越稀缺。我相信市场将逐渐回归基本面。你可能会认为这个愿景听起来过于理想化和不可实现。但正是这样的崩溃可能导致许多依赖于出售代币的产品失败，从而导致没有产品或市场契合的项目的消亡，完成行业的洗牌。同时，已经实现盈利的项目生存率要高得多——毕竟，它们的收入足以覆盖相当一部分（甚至全部）的开发成本。逻辑很简单：一个成功的项目首先必须是一个盈利的企业。否则，我绝不会将其代币视为长期投资。当然，总有例外。例如，尽管隐私币缺乏健全和可持续的经济模型，但最近表现异常出色。押注于当前热门叙事（如当前的隐私概念）可能会带来可观的利润，即使忽略基本面。但请记住，大多数叙事的生命周期最多只有几个月。因此，如果你选择参与这样的交易，要小心在炒作消退后成为接盘侠。不幸的是，99% 的加密项目将无法适应新的市场环境，最终消失。这就是为什么现在的投资决策比以往任何时候都需要更仔细的选择。然而，我坚信，对于那些没有离开市场的人来说，仍然会有很多机会。问题不在于加密货币的复苏是否会发生，而在于何时发生。</p>
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为什么这个周期如此艰难？