<p>来源：Coinbase；编译：金色财经</p>
<p>Coinbase 最近发布了《2026 年加密市场展望》报告。在报告中，Coinbase 深入探讨了将塑造未来一年加密经济的各种因素，从 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 的详细展望，到最新的监管、市场结构和代币化发展。此外，我们还将分析比特币四年周期的影响、量子计算带来的风险，以及以太坊最新的 Fusaka 硬分叉和索拉纳即将推出的 Alpenglow 等重大平台升级的影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="530" height="285" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>以下是报告的关键要点：</p>
<h2>市场趋势</h2>
<h3><strong>谨慎乐观：</strong></h3>
<p>Coinbase 认为，美国经济依然具有韧性，持续改善的劳动生产率可以缓冲经济增长放缓的影响。因此，我们认为 2026 年上半年加密货币市场的格局更接近于 &#34;1996&#34; 而非 &#34;1999&#34;（也就是说，我们对明年持乐观态度），但我们也承认市场仍然存在相当大的不确定性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="529" height="285" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>监管进展：</h3>
<p>在 2025 年，我们见证了美国和全球监管环境的里程碑式发展，促成了新的现货加密货币 ETF、数字资产国库（DAT）的出现，并推动了更广泛的机构参与。我们相信，明确的全球框架将继续改变 2026 年机构在战略、风险和合规方面的实践。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="534" height="283" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>机构采用：</h3>
<p>DAT 在 2025 年扩大了其买家基础，但最近出现了以估值为驱动的整合。我们预计 2026 年将出现 &#34;DAT 2.0&#34; 模型，未来版本将不再局限于简单的资产积累，而是专注于主权区块空间的专业交易、存储和采购，将区块空间视为数字经济中的关键商品。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="533" height="283" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>代币经济学 2.0：</h3>
<p>随着政策的明确，代币持有者的经济利益与平台使用相联系，协议正朝着价值捕获的方向发展——包括费用分享、回购和 &#34;买入并销毁 &#34;等机制。我们认为，这标志着从纯叙事驱动的 beta 模型向持久的、与收入相关的模型的转变。</p>
<h2>技术变革</h2>
<h3>隐私需求：</h3>
<p>随着机构采用的增加，用户对控制和保密的需求也在增长。</p>
<p>我们预计零知识证明（ZKP）和完全同态加密（FHE）等技术将继续发展，随着密码基础设施的普及，链上隐私的使用将显著增加。AI × 加密货币：自主代理系统需要开放、可编程的支付方式。像 x402 这样的协议能够实现高频微交易结算，并支持能够启动、管理和保护链上服务的代理。** 应用特定链：** 专用区块链网络的迅速普及正在重塑加密基础设施的竞争格局。我们认为，最终目标是构建具有原生互操作性和共享安全性的网络架构，而不是由无数孤立系统组成的无尽系统。** 代币化：** 现实世界资产代币化（RWA）在 2025 年实现了显著增长，代币化股权代表了一个新兴领域。考虑到其原子组合性，其快速增长前景极具吸引力，DeFi 风格的贷款价值比（LTV）往往远超传统保证金框架。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="522" height="257" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h2>下一个重大事件</h2>
<h3>加密衍生品的组合性质：</h3>
<p>永续合约正从孤立的杠杆交易转向核心 DeFi 功能——与借贷、质押和对冲相结合。随着全球零售投资者参与美国股票交易的持续增长，我们相信，股票永续期货合约有望成为下一代零售交易者的首选，提供 24/7 交易和资本效率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="530" height="273" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>预测市场：</h3>
<p>预计交易量将在 2026 年进一步扩大，因为美国税收政策的变化可能促使用户转向这些基于衍生品的市场。尽管市场碎片化可能带来风险，但我们相信预测市场聚合器有望成为主导的接口层，周交易量可能达到数十亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="536" height="287" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>稳定币和支付：</h3>
<p>稳定币已巩固其在加密生态系统中的主要用例地位。我们的随机模型预测，到 2028 年底，稳定币的总市值预计将达到约 1.2 万亿美元。预计在跨境交易结算、汇款和薪资平台等领域将出现更多新的应用场景。最后，我们相信加密行业现在已经准备好从理论走向实践，并将越来越多地与核心金融系统整合。未来的机会巨大，但其实现依赖于在产品质量、合规性和以用户为中心的设计等领域的强大执行。通过关注这些领域，我们可以确保下一波创新惠及每个人，随时随地。</p>

COIN

<p>Coinbase 的《2026 年加密市场展望》报告强调了塑造加密经济的关键趋势，包括对市场增长的谨慎乐观、监管进展和机构采用。报告讨论了零知识证明和代币化等技术进步，并预测加密衍生品和稳定币的增长。报告强调，为了实现加密行业未来的机会，需要在产品质量、合规性和以用户为中心的设计方面进行强有力的执行</p>

<p>Source: Coinbase; Compiled by: Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Coinbase；编译：金色财经</p>
</div><p>Coinbase recently released its &#34;2026 Crypto Market Outlook&#34; report. In the report, Coinbase delves into the various factors that will shape the crypto economy in the coming year, from detailed outlooks for BTC, ETH, and SOL, to the latest developments in regulation, market structure, and tokenization. Furthermore, we will analyze the impact of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the risks posed by quantum computing, and the impact of major platform upgrades, such as Ethereum's latest Fusaka hard fork and Solana's upcoming Alpenglow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 最近发布了《2026 年加密市场展望》报告。在报告中，Coinbase 深入探讨了将塑造未来一年加密经济的各种因素，从 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 的详细展望，到最新的监管、市场结构和代币化发展。此外，我们还将分析比特币四年周期的影响、量子计算带来的风险，以及以太坊最新的 Fusaka 硬分叉和索拉纳即将推出的 Alpenglow 等重大平台升级的影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>The following are the key points of the report:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是报告的关键要点：</p>
</div><h2>Market Trends</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场趋势</h2>
</div><h3><strong>Cautiously Optimistic:</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>谨慎乐观：</strong></h3>
</div><p>Coinbase believes that the US economy remains resilient, and continuously improving labor productivity can buffer the impact of slowing economic growth. Therefore, we believe that the cryptocurrency market landscape in the first half of 2026 is closer to &#34;1996&#34; than &#34;1999&#34; (that is, we are optimistic about next year), but we also acknowledge that there is still considerable uncertainty in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 认为，美国经济依然具有韧性，持续改善的劳动生产率可以缓冲经济增长放缓的影响。因此，我们认为 2026 年上半年加密货币市场的格局更接近于 &#34;1996&#34; 而非 &#34;1999&#34;（也就是说，我们对明年持乐观态度），但我们也承认市场仍然存在相当大的不确定性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Regulatory Progress:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>监管进展：</h3>
</div><p>In 2025, we witnessed landmark developments in the US and global regulatory landscape, leading to the emergence of new spot cryptocurrency ETFs, digital asset treasuries (DATs), and driving broader institutional participation. We believe that a clearer global framework will continue to transform institutional practices in strategy, risk, and compliance in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，我们见证了美国和全球监管环境的里程碑式发展，促成了新的现货加密货币 ETF、数字资产国库（DAT）的出现，并推动了更广泛的机构参与。我们相信，明确的全球框架将继续改变 2026 年机构在战略、风险和合规方面的实践。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Institutional Adoption:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>机构采用：</h3>
</div><p>DAT expanded its buyer base in 2025, but recently valuation-driven consolidation has emerged. We expect a &#34;DAT 2.0&#34; model to emerge in 2026, where future versions will no longer be limited to simple asset accumulation, but will focus on the professional trading, storage, and procurement of sovereign block space, viewing block space as a key commodity in the digital economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DAT 在 2025 年扩大了其买家基础，但最近出现了以估值为驱动的整合。我们预计 2026 年将出现 &#34;DAT 2.0&#34; 模型，未来版本将不再局限于简单的资产积累，而是专注于主权区块空间的专业交易、存储和采购，将区块空间视为数字经济中的关键商品。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Token Economics 2.0:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>代币经济学 2.0：</h3>
</div><p>With policy clarity, the economic interests of token holders are linked to platform usage, and protocols are moving towards value capture—including mechanisms such as fee sharing, buybacks, and &#34;buy-and-burn.&#34; We believe this marks an emerging shift from purely narrative-driven beta models to persistent, revenue-linked models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着政策的明确，代币持有者的经济利益与平台使用相联系，协议正朝着价值捕获的方向发展——包括费用分享、回购和 &#34;买入并销毁 &#34;等机制。我们认为，这标志着从纯叙事驱动的 beta 模型向持久的、与收入相关的模型的转变。</p>
</div><h2>Technological Change</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术变革</h2>
</div><h3>Privacy Needs:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>隐私需求：</h3>
</div><p>As institutional adoption increases, users' demands for control and confidentiality are also growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着机构采用的增加，用户对控制和保密的需求也在增长。</p>
</div><p>We anticipate continued development of technologies such as Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) and Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), and a significant increase in the use of on-chain privacy as cryptographic infrastructure becomes more widespread. AI × Cryptocurrency: Autonomous agent systems require open, programmable payment methods. Protocols such as x402 enable high-frequency microtransaction settlement and support agents that can launch, manage, and secure on-chain services. **Application-Specific Chains:** The proliferation of specialized blockchain networks is rapidly reshaping the competitive landscape of crypto infrastructure. We believe the ultimate goal is to build a network architecture with native interoperability and shared security, rather than an endless system composed of countless isolated systems. **Tokenization:** Real-world asset tokenization (RWA) saw significant growth in 2025, with tokenized equity representing an emerging field. Its rapid growth prospects are highly attractive given its atomic composability, with DeFi-style loan-to-value (LTV) ratios often far exceeding traditional margin frameworks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们预计零知识证明（ZKP）和完全同态加密（FHE）等技术将继续发展，随着密码基础设施的普及，链上隐私的使用将显著增加。AI × 加密货币：自主代理系统需要开放、可编程的支付方式。像 x402 这样的协议能够实现高频微交易结算，并支持能够启动、管理和保护链上服务的代理。** 应用特定链：** 专用区块链网络的迅速普及正在重塑加密基础设施的竞争格局。我们认为，最终目标是构建具有原生互操作性和共享安全性的网络架构，而不是由无数孤立系统组成的无尽系统。** 代币化：** 现实世界资产代币化（RWA）在 2025 年实现了显著增长，代币化股权代表了一个新兴领域。考虑到其原子组合性，其快速增长前景极具吸引力，DeFi 风格的贷款价值比（LTV）往往远超传统保证金框架。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h2>The Next Big Event</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一个重大事件</h2>
</div><h3>The Combinatorial Nature of Crypto Derivatives:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>加密衍生品的组合性质：</h3>
</div><p>Perpetual contracts are moving from isolated leveraged trading to a core DeFi function—combined with lending, staking, and hedging. With the continued growth of global retail investor participation in US stock trading, we believe that equity perpetual futures contracts are poised to become the preferred choice for the next generation of retail traders, offering both 24/7 trading and capital efficiency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永续合约正从孤立的杠杆交易转向核心 DeFi 功能——与借贷、质押和对冲相结合。随着全球零售投资者参与美国股票交易的持续增长，我们相信，股票永续期货合约有望成为下一代零售交易者的首选，提供 24/7 交易和资本效率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Prediction Markets:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>预测市场：</h3>
</div><p>Trading volumes are expected to expand further in 2026 as changes in US tax policy may prompt users to shift to these derivatives-based markets. While market fragmentation may pose a risk, we believe prediction market aggregators are poised to become the dominant interface layer, with weekly trading volumes potentially reaching billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计交易量将在 2026 年进一步扩大，因为美国税收政策的变化可能促使用户转向这些基于衍生品的市场。尽管市场碎片化可能带来风险，但我们相信预测市场聚合器有望成为主导的接口层，周交易量可能达到数十亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Stablecoins and Payments:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>稳定币和支付：</h3>
</div><p>Stablecoins have solidified their position as the primary use case in the crypto ecosystem. Our stochastic model predicts that the total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028. More new application scenarios are expected to emerge in areas such as cross-border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms. Finally, we believe the crypto industry is now ready to move from theory to practice and will increasingly integrate with the core financial system. The future opportunities are enormous, but their realization depends on strong execution in areas such as product quality, regulatory compliance, and user-centric design. By focusing on these areas, we can ensure that the next wave of innovation benefits everyone, anytime, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定币已巩固其在加密生态系统中的主要用例地位。我们的随机模型预测，到 2028 年底，稳定币的总市值预计将达到约 1.2 万亿美元。预计在跨境交易结算、汇款和薪资平台等领域将出现更多新的应用场景。最后，我们相信加密行业现在已经准备好从理论走向实践，并将越来越多地与核心金融系统整合。未来的机会巨大，但其实现依赖于在产品质量、合规性和以用户为中心的设计等领域的强大执行。通过关注这些领域，我们可以确保下一波创新惠及每个人，随时随地。</p>
</div>

Coinbase: Crypto Market Outlook for 2026

- Coinbase 发布《2026 年加密市场展望》报告，分析加密经济的未来因素。  
- 报告指出，美国经济韧性增强将影响 2026 年市场，预计加密货币领域将进一步发展。  
- 预计稳定币市场到 2028 年总市值将达约 1.2 万亿美元，将深度融入核心金融系统。

Coinbase：2026 年加密货币市场展望