<p>中国电动车制造商 <strong>蔚来汽车</strong>（NIO +1.22%）的股价已跌至 4.95 美元，比 2025 年的高点低了超过 35%，距离历史最低点不到 2 美元。</p>
<p>考虑到这家汽车制造商销售增长的速度，当前股价似乎是一个显而易见的买入机会。但蔚来面临着三个重大风险。投资者在购买股票之前应仔细考虑这些风险，即使在这个折扣价位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NDc2MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwNjI1Nzg2NC0xMjAweDc2Ny0wNGQ2OWY5LTEuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1199" height="767" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NDc2MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwNjI1Nzg2NC0xMjAweDc2Ny0wNGQ2OWY5LTEuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>风险一：蔚来仍未实现盈利</h2>
<p>随着销售额以令人印象深刻的两位数百分比增长，蔚来的收入也在飙升。11 月份，公司交付了 36,275 辆汽车，同比增长 76.3%。这与其创纪录的 10 月份交付量 40,397 辆相差不远，后者同比增长 92.6%。</p>
<p>尽管这些交付数字创下了纪录，且同比增长令人印象深刻，但蔚来并未盈利。事实上，销售的汽车越多，其盈利能力的数字似乎越糟糕。在 2021 年录得 8.136 亿美元的净亏损后，2022 年的净亏损增至 16 亿美元，2023 年为 22 亿美元，2024 年为 30 亿美元，而其收入则从 56 亿美元飙升至 91 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，公司可能正在扭转局面。其季度净亏损在过去三个季度中逐渐缩小，管理层据报道旨在使第四季度成为首次盈利的季度。如果成功，股价可能会上涨；如果不成功，股价可能会进一步下跌。</p>
<p>广告</p>
<p>即使蔚来设法实现一个盈利的季度，中国电动车市场的竞争仍在加剧，因此维持盈利能力可能会变得更加困难。</p>
<h2>风险二：激励措施消失</h2>
<p>中国政府采取了一系列措施来帮助启动国内电动车产业，通过 2022 年提供了可观的购车补贴，目前则提供购车的全额税收减免。然而，这些减免措施将逐步被淘汰，从下个月开始。</p>
<p>政府将不再对最高达人民币 30,000 元（约合 4,260 美元）的电动车全额购车价格提供税收减免，而是仅在 2026 年和 2027 年提供最高约 2,130 美元的 50% 减免。之后，减免措施将到期。</p>
<p>在美国，我们看到税收激励措施的取消对电动车销售的影响，当 7,500 美元的税收抵免在 9 月底逐步取消时，电动车销售在 10 月和 11 月骤降。类似的情况可能会在 2026 年发生在蔚来的销售上，这可能会对其收入和股价产生重大影响。</p>
<p>也就是说，蔚来故意瞄准低端电动车市场，推出了几款价格较低的车型和其标志性的电池更换计划，这进一步降低了购车价格。因此，减少的税收激励措施在购买蔚来时可能会更具吸引力，这可能改善其相对于其他中国汽车制造商的竞争地位。但即使竞争地位有所改善，也不能保证足以抵消整体购买量可能下降的影响。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05JTy5wbmcmdz0xMjg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="蔚来股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05JTy5wbmcmdz0xMjg"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: NIO</h2>
<p>蔚来汽车</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(1.22%) $0.06</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$4.99</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$10B</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$4.98 - $5.03</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$3.02 - $8.02</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>33K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>58M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>11.25%</p>
<h2>风险三：贸易壁垒</h2>
<p>蔚来的增长论点之一是其积极的国际扩张努力。尽管其大多数汽车在中国销售，但它已经在五个欧洲国家启动了销售和服务网络，并计划扩展到另外七个国家。</p>
<p>然而，在 2024 年底，欧盟对中国电动车实施了严厉的关税，称其为 “不公平补贴”。这些关税范围从 17% 到 35.3%，对所有在欧洲销售的中国电动车制造商构成了巨大障碍，但对像蔚来这样高度依赖价格竞争的汽车制造商尤其成问题。这些关税将在五年内到期，这使得电动车制造商的欧洲战略充满不确定性。</p>
<h2>蔚来股票值得关注吗？</h2>
<p>考虑到蔚来目前的风险，股价低于 5 美元也就不足为奇，这相当于仅为过去销售的 1.1 倍。</p>
<p>虽然蔚来有可能在第四季度实现盈利，并在竞争激烈的环境和中国电动车市场激励措施消失的情况下维持盈利能力，但也有很多事情可能会出错。投资者应意识到这些风险，并且只应投入他们能够承受损失的资金到这只投机性股票中。</p>

蔚来汽车

蔚来-SW

<p>蔚来汽车的股票价格低于 5 美元，但投资者在购买前应考虑风险。尽管销售增长令人印象深刻，蔚来仍然处于亏损状态，净亏损每年都在增加。中国的电动车激励政策正在逐步退出，这可能会影响销售。欧盟对中国电动车的关税给蔚来的国际扩张带来了挑战。虽然蔚来旨在实现盈利，但投资者应保持谨慎，仅投资他们能够承受损失的资金</p>

<p>The share price of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker <strong>Nio</strong>( NIO +1.22%) has fallen to $4.95, more than 35% off its 2025 high and less than $2 away from its all-time lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国电动车制造商 <strong>蔚来汽车</strong>（NIO +1.22%）的股价已跌至 4.95 美元，比 2025 年的高点低了超过 35%，距离历史最低点不到 2 美元。</p>
</div><p>Given how quickly the automaker has been growing its sales, it might seem like a no-brainer buy at the current stock price. But there are three big risks ahead for Nio. Investors should consider them carefully before buying the stock, even at this discounted price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这家汽车制造商销售增长的速度，当前股价似乎是一个显而易见的买入机会。但蔚来面临着三个重大风险。投资者在购买股票之前应仔细考虑这些风险，即使在这个折扣价位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NDc2MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwNjI1Nzg2NC0xMjAweDc2Ny0wNGQ2OWY5LTEuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="An electric vehicle at a charging station." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F847606%2Fgettyimages-1406257864-1200x767-04d69f9-1.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Risk No. 1: Profitability remains elusive for Nio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险一：蔚来仍未实现盈利</h2>
</div><p>Nio's revenue has been soaring as its sales have grown by impressive double-digit percentages. In November, the company made 36,275 vehicle deliveries, a year-over-year increase of 76.3%. That's not far off from its record-setting October deliveries of 40,397 vehicles, a 92.6% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着销售额以令人印象深刻的两位数百分比增长，蔚来的收入也在飙升。11 月份，公司交付了 36,275 辆汽车，同比增长 76.3%。这与其创纪录的 10 月份交付量 40,397 辆相差不远，后者同比增长 92.6%。</p>
</div><p>Despite these record delivery numbers and impressive year-over-year growth, Nio isn't profitable. In fact, the more vehicles it sells, the worse its profitability numbers seem to get. After posting a net loss of $813.6 million in 2021, its net losses grew to $1.6 billion in 2022, $2.2 billion in 2023, and $3 billion in 2024, all while its revenue soared from $5.6 billion to $9.1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些交付数字创下了纪录，且同比增长令人印象深刻，但蔚来并未盈利。事实上，销售的汽车越多，其盈利能力的数字似乎越糟糕。在 2021 年录得 8.136 亿美元的净亏损后，2022 年的净亏损增至 16 亿美元，2023 年为 22 亿美元，2024 年为 30 亿美元，而其收入则从 56 亿美元飙升至 91 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, the company might be turning things around. Its quarterly net losses shrank sequentially over the last three periods, and management reportedly aims to make the fourth quarter the first-ever profitable quarter. If it succeeds, shares will likely rise; if not, they are likely to fall further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，公司可能正在扭转局面。其季度净亏损在过去三个季度中逐渐缩小，管理层据报道旨在使第四季度成为首次盈利的季度。如果成功，股价可能会上涨；如果不成功，股价可能会进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>Advertisement</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>广告</p>
</div><p>Even if Nio manages to eke out a single profitable quarter, competition in the Chinese EV market is continuing to heat up, so maintaining that profitability may get even more difficult as time goes on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使蔚来设法实现一个盈利的季度，中国电动车市场的竞争仍在加剧，因此维持盈利能力可能会变得更加困难。</p>
</div><h2>Risk No. 2: Vanishing incentives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险二：激励措施消失</h2>
</div><p>The Chinese government pulled out all the stops to help jump-start the country's electric car industry, offering substantial purchase subsidies for EVs through 2022 and currently offering full tax exemptions for purchasing a vehicle. However, those exemptions are gradually being phased out, starting next month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国政府采取了一系列措施来帮助启动国内电动车产业，通过 2022 年提供了可观的购车补贴，目前则提供购车的全额税收减免。然而，这些减免措施将逐步被淘汰，从下个月开始。</p>
</div><p>Instead of offering a tax exemption on the full purchase price of an EV up to RMB 30,000 (about $4,260), the government will only offer a 50% exemption worth up to about $2,130 in 2026 and 2027. After that, the exemptions are set to expire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府将不再对最高达人民币 30,000 元（约合 4,260 美元）的电动车全额购车价格提供税收减免，而是仅在 2026 年和 2027 年提供最高约 2,130 美元的 50% 减免。之后，减免措施将到期。</p>
</div><p>Here in the U.S., we saw the impact that the removal of tax incentives could have on EV sales when the $7,500 tax credits were phased out at the end of September, and EV sales plummeted in October and November. The same thing could easily happen to Nio's sales in 2026, which could have a big impact on its revenue and its share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，我们看到税收激励措施的取消对电动车销售的影响，当 7,500 美元的税收抵免在 9 月底逐步取消时，电动车销售在 10 月和 11 月骤降。类似的情况可能会在 2026 年发生在蔚来的销售上，这可能会对其收入和股价产生重大影响。</p>
</div><p>That said, Nio has deliberately targeted the lower-end EV market by offering several less-expensive vehicles and its signature battery swap program, which reduces the purchase price of a vehicle even further. Thus, the reduced tax incentives are likely to go further when buying a Nio, which might improve its competitive standing relative to other Chinese automakers. But there's no guarantee that even an improved competitive standing will be enough to offset a likely drop in overall purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，蔚来故意瞄准低端电动车市场，推出了几款价格较低的车型和其标志性的电池更换计划，这进一步降低了购车价格。因此，减少的税收激励措施在购买蔚来时可能会更具吸引力，这可能改善其相对于其他中国汽车制造商的竞争地位。但即使竞争地位有所改善，也不能保证足以抵消整体购买量可能下降的影响。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05JTy5wbmcmdz0xMjg" alt="Nio Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNIO.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: NIO</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSE: NIO</h2>
</div><p>Nio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蔚来汽车</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(1.22%) $0.06</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.22%) $0.06</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$4.99</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.99</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$10B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$10B</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$4.98 - $5.03</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.98 - $5.03</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$3.02 - $8.02</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3.02 - $8.02</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>33K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>33K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>58M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>58M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>11.25%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11.25%</p>
</div><h2>Risk No. 3: Trade barriers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险三：贸易壁垒</h2>
</div><p>Part of the growth thesis for Nio is its aggressive international expansion efforts. While the vast majority of its cars are sold in China, it has already launched sales and service networks in five European countries and is planning to expand into seven more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蔚来的增长论点之一是其积极的国际扩张努力。尽管其大多数汽车在中国销售，但它已经在五个欧洲国家启动了销售和服务网络，并计划扩展到另外七个国家。</p>
</div><p>However, in late 2024, the E.U. implemented stiff tariffs on Chinese EVs, calling them &#34;unfairly subsidized.&#34; These tariffs, which range from 17% to 35.3%, are a huge barrier for all Chinese EV makers that sell in Europe, but are especially problematic for a carmaker like Nio, which leans heavily on affordability. The tariffs aren't set to expire for five years, which throws the EV maker's European strategy into doubt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 2024 年底，欧盟对中国电动车实施了严厉的关税，称其为 “不公平补贴”。这些关税范围从 17% 到 35.3%，对所有在欧洲销售的中国电动车制造商构成了巨大障碍，但对像蔚来这样高度依赖价格竞争的汽车制造商尤其成问题。这些关税将在五年内到期，这使得电动车制造商的欧洲战略充满不确定性。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nio stock worth a look?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蔚来股票值得关注吗？</h2>
</div><p>Given how risky Nio looks right now, it's no wonder it's trading at less than $5, which translates to just 1.1 times trailing sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到蔚来目前的风险，股价低于 5 美元也就不足为奇，这相当于仅为过去销售的 1.1 倍。</p>
</div><p>While it's possible that Nio will manage to turn in a profitable fourth quarter and then navigate the competitive landscape and the vanishing tax incentives in the Chinese EV market to maintain that profitability, there's a lot that could go wrong. Investors should be aware of the risks and should only put money they can afford to lose into this speculative stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然蔚来有可能在第四季度实现盈利，并在竞争激烈的环境和中国电动车市场激励措施消失的情况下维持盈利能力，但也有很多事情可能会出错。投资者应意识到这些风险，并且只应投入他们能够承受损失的资金到这只投机性股票中。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nio Stock While It's Below $5 a Share?

- 中国电动车制造商蔚来的股价跌至 4.95 美元，较 2025 年高点下跌超 35%。  
- 三个主要风险包括盈利能力难以实现、购车补贴逐渐减少及贸易壁垒加重。  
- 投资者应谨慎权衡风险，避免过度投机。

在蔚来汽车股价低于每股 5 美元时，你是否应该购买该股票？