<div id="readability-page-1">“…the second half of December is historically the SPX’s strongest two-week period, higher by 1.30% on average, with positive returns about three-quarters of the time… Bears may not go away easily... the SPX pulled back about 5% after the rate cut before last week’s cut.. since early December, sellers have surfaced around the October highs…In order for the next stage of major short covering on a rally, the SPX must move through resistance that has been established around the 6,900-century mark dating back to late October… Second-half seasonality favors the bulls, but it may be difficult making a convincing move above recent highs by year end.” - Monday Morning Outlook, December 15, 2025 As of last Wednesday’s close, and one week removed from a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it appeared the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX -- 6,834.50) was firmly on its way to repeating the extremely weak price action that immediately followed the October rate cut. The index closed below its 30- and 50-day moving averages and closed below former October resistance at 6,760, which is 10% above its year-end 2024 close. The advance in the final two days of the week was enough to push the SPX back above these moving averages and the 6,760 level. However, the SPX enters the week once again below its October closing high and below 6,887, its close on the day of the Dec. 10 rate cut. This leaves the door open for the December rate cut marking a noticeable short-term top just as the October rate cut did. Neither bulls nor bears have exerted command in these final weeks of 2025. Since mid-September, the SPX has been locked in a range between 6,550 and 6,900. Zoom in on the SPX’s price action with an hourly chart since the end of last month and you will find the index locked in a narrower range between 6,760 and 6,895. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2025/december/mmo/mmo-1-dec21.png/query-c2Z2cnNuPWVhYmNiZTA2XzI?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="575" height="442" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2025/december/mmo/mmo-1-dec21.png/query-c2Z2cnNuPWVhYmNiZTA2XzI"/> The choppy action in the past month is driven by the heavily weighted technology group, which has been flat in this period. The decline in energy names has been offset by rallies in basic materials, financials, and consumer cyclicals. In fact, if not for the impressive leadership of these groups in recent weeks, the SPX would not be higher since the break below the lower boundary of a bull channel in November. It is clearly a stock picker’s market as we head into the final trading days of 2025. In addition to playing sector themes, selling options premium on broad market index or exchange-traded funds (ETF) options has been a winning strategy too in this period. Premium sellers, in fact, may be at work, with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX -- 14.91) near its 2025 lows, which may be attractive for those of you looking to hedge long portfolios with options in the event the break from the range favors the bears. With standard December options expiration behind us, remember that quarterly expiration is imminent. The SPX Dec. 31 quarterly expiration 7,000 strike is home to sold calls as part of J.P. Morgan’s (JPM’s) quarterly expiration collar strategy executed at the end of each quarter. This implies that if the SPX breaks out above the 6,900-level by year end, the 7,000-millennium mark could be a significant speed bump from both a psychological and options-related vantage point. After last Monday’s SPX close at 6,817, we officially moved into a bullish seasonal period, with the second half of December averaging a 1.30% return. Coincidentally, a 1.30% advance from the December 15th close would push the SPX into resistance in the 6,900 area, where we saw highs in October and earlier this month. Using sentiment gauges, the biggest question is, “Who is it that drives a second half rally?” One group could be the shorts, who might look to take losses on losing trades and ahead of year end for tax purposes. “Global asset managers’ cash holdings have fallen to a record low…Average cash holdings in portfolios dropped to 3.3% in December, down from 3.7% in November, according to a closely watched survey of fund managers by Bank of America – the lowest level since the survey began in 1999.” - Financial Times, December 16, 2025 Per the excerpt above, there could be a waning pool of potential buyers, and this could be a headwind during this period of positive seasonality. Fund managers need cash for potential redemptions and therefore a risk for bulls is whether fund managers will deploy what little cash they have to boost equity holdings in the remaining weeks ahead. If option buyers on SPX component stocks reflect sideline money among short-term traders, there is an indication that there is little fuel in the tank among short-term traders to drive stocks higher. As seen in the chart below, the 10-day buy (to open) put/call volume ratio on SPX components is currently hovering near lows and turning higher. When this ratio is relatively low and turns higher, it means traders are turning sour on the market after an extreme in optimism was achieved. As they sour, the market is vulnerable to long positions being liquidated. With the SPX above key technical levels, the two sentiment points outlined above are not reasons to be bearish in the short term. But it could also limit the SPX’s upside potential, especially if technical resistance levels come back into play before year end if a rally is in the cards. In summary, based on technical and sentiment-based observations, I would not be shocked if the range-bound trading continues into year end. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2025/december/mmo/mmo-2-dec21.png/query-c2Z2cnNuPWU2YmNiZTA2XzI?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="567" height="347" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2025/december/mmo/mmo-2-dec21.png/query-c2Z2cnNuPWU2YmNiZTA2XzI"/> <li>The Week Ahead: Delayed Reports Fill Christmas Week</li> <li>Nasdaq-100 Rebalance Trade That No One Talks About</li> </div>

标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年结束时仍处于区间震荡中，既没有多头也没有空头占据主导地位。历史上，12 月下半月对标准普尔 500 指数表现强劲，但近期在 6,900 附近的阻力构成了挑战。该指数在 6,550 和 6,900 之间波动，受到各行业表现的影响。卖出期权溢价一直是盈利的，而即将到来的季度到期可能会影响市场走势。全球资产管理公司的现金持有量创下历史新低，可能限制了购买力。随着年末临近，市场仍然充满不确定性

标普 500 指数可能在 2025 年结束时仍维持在区间内波动