<p>由于贵金属市场的复苏，<strong>New Gold Inc</strong> (NYSEAMERICAN: NGD) 正在继续其惊人的增长。截至目前，NGD 股票已上涨约 266%。在过去五个交易日中，该证券上涨超过 10%，显示出买方疲软的迹象确实很少。实际上，New Gold 的价格图表中闪现出的一个罕见量化信号表明，进一步上涨的可能性依然存在。</p>
<p>进一步增强了市场的热情，New Gold 计划在 2 月 18 日发布其财报。换句话说，乐观的论点围绕两个因素展开：首先，积极的财报和前景可能会轻松推动 NGD 股票上涨，而该股票已经为强劲的波动做好了准备。其次，黄金和白银的创纪录反弹在经历了一段整合的低迷后再次恢复。这可能有助于在新年的早期点燃市场情绪。</p>
<p>当然，市场对 NGD 股票的乐观情绪受到一个不容忽视的细节的影响。今年 11 月，<strong>Coeur Mining, Inc.</strong> (NYSE: CDE) 宣布将以全股票交易收购 New Gold，交易价值约为 70 亿美元。需要注意的是，交换比例将 NGD 的每股价值定为 8.51 美元。因此，目前的价格大约比隐含价值高出 8%。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，一些投资者可能会认为，在预计交易完成之前，这个溢价过高，交易预计将在明年上半年完成，需待股东、法院和监管机构的批准。然而，重要的是要记住隐含波动率（IV）。作为从实际交易价格中反推的残余价值——这些价格本身源于真实的资金订单流——IV 提供了目标证券预期分散的一个重要线索。</p>
<p>对于 2 月的财报披露，预期变动计算器预计 NGD 股票将向任一方向波动 19.1%。现在，我们只需缩小可能的结果以进行交易。</p>
<h2>揭示 NGD 股票的风险几何</h2>
<p>明确来说，预期变动计算器是有用的，因为它们提供了基于期权交易者实际投机和对冲活动的预期分散。然而，分散并不等同于概率。通过将 IV 插入 Black-Scholes 公式，您可以反向推导出预期的价格变动_规模_。然而，它并不能告诉您哪些结果更可能实现。</p>
<p>现在，有一个 “盈利概率” 指标也是从 Black-Scholes 推导出来的。然而，这并不是一个 “真实” 的概率，因为 Black-Scholes 使用的数学公式假设（强制）风险中立的范式。但由于股票市场是遇到的最复杂的环境之一，这种风险中立的假设不能被假定。</p>
<p>为了找到结果的可能性，我们必须开发一个非参数分布模型。例如，如果我们取一段 NGD 股票的单一 10 周数据，这段时间的回报不会告诉我们数据集中其他周的表现概率。然而，如果我们在固定时间分布中堆叠数百个滚动的 10 周序列，最频繁的行为将形成概率质量的隆起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153331/NGD-stock-distributions.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="951" height="392" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153331/NGD-stock-distributions.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>这个隆起就是风险几何，它显示了买方情绪的加速情感。更重要的是，它还显示了买方被诱惑成为卖方的转变。</p>
<p>利用这个分层框架，NGD 股票的未来 10 周回报可以排列成一个分布曲线，结果范围在 8.80 美元到 10 美元之间（假设锚定价格为 9.16 美元）。此外，价格聚集可能会发生在 9.30 美元附近。</p>
<p>上述评估汇总了自 2019 年 1 月以来的滚动试验。然而，我们希望隔离当前的量化信号，即罕见的 4-6-U 序列。在过去的 10 周中，NGD 股票仅出现了四周上涨，但整体趋势向上。这一动态告诉我们，尽管空头在数量上超过了多头，但价格仍在上涨。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，价格预计将在 7.80 美元到 12.40 美元之间波动，这与从 IV 计算得出的预期分散非常相似。然而，我们也知道概率密度在 10 美元附近最为密集。</p>
<h2>追求大交易</h2>
<p>基于上述市场情报，明智的举动似乎是瞄准 10 美元的行权价。实际上，2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 9/10 牛市看涨期权差价允许您这样做。如果 NGD 股票在到期时突破第二个行权价（10 美元），最大回报仅约为 43%。这并不是您可以从期权市场中提取的最佳回报。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153302/NGD-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153302/NGD-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>此外，由于备受期待的财报披露——加上贵金属在新年初的势头——NGD 股票有可能超越其通常的基线行为状态。这正是 IV 所指示的，更重要的是，4-6-U 量化信号证明了更乐观的立场。</p>
<p>因此，我会仔细考虑 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 9/11 牛市看涨期权差价。该交易要求 NGD 股票在到期时突破 11 美元，这是一个雄心勃勃的目标。然而，做到这一点将提取大约 111% 的最大回报。</p>
<p>此外，盈亏平衡价格为 9.95 美元，正好位于概率密度最厚的部分。因此，您将有很好的机会不亏损，同时追求大额回报。换句话说，这笔交易有助于最大化盈利潜力，同时限制机会成本。</p>
<p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文所提供信息的准确性或可靠性不承担任何责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>下一篇：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：如何精准交易 ‘显而易见’ 的 ServiceNow 反弹叙事</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>New Gold Inc (NGD) 正在经历一个看涨趋势，原因是黄金价格上涨以及即将发布的财报。尽管与 Coeur Mining 合并，NGD 的股票仍显示出进一步上涨的潜力，预计价格波动和战略性期权交易得到了强调。建议投资者考虑 $10 的行权价以获取潜在收益，尽管隐含波动性和风险几何的复杂性需要考虑</p>

<p>Thanks to the resurgence in the precious metals market, <strong>New Gold Inc</strong> (NYSEAMERICAN: NGD) is back to building on its blistering run. On a year-to-date basis, NGD stock has gained about 266%. Over the trailing five sessions, the security is up more than 10%, thereby showing little signs of buyer exhaustion. Indeed, a rare quantitative signal that flashed in New Gold's price chart indicates that even more upside is possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于贵金属市场的复苏，<strong>New Gold Inc</strong> (NYSEAMERICAN: NGD) 正在继续其惊人的增长。截至目前，NGD 股票已上涨约 266%。在过去五个交易日中，该证券上涨超过 10%，显示出买方疲软的迹象确实很少。实际上，New Gold 的价格图表中闪现出的一个罕见量化信号表明，进一步上涨的可能性依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the enthusiasm, New Gold is scheduled to release its earnings report on Feb. 18. In other words, the bullish thesis revolves around two factors: first, a positive print and outlook could easily boost NGD stock, which is already primed for robust kinetic swings. Second, the record-breaking rally of both gold and silver has resumed after a consolidatory lull. That may help ignite sentiment throughout the early part of the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步增强了市场的热情，New Gold 计划在 2 月 18 日发布其财报。换句话说，乐观的论点围绕两个因素展开：首先，积极的财报和前景可能会轻松推动 NGD 股票上涨，而该股票已经为强劲的波动做好了准备。其次，黄金和白银的创纪录反弹在经历了一段整合的低迷后再次恢复。这可能有助于在新年的早期点燃市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>Of course, the bullishness toward NGD stock is complicated by a not-so-insignificant detail. In November, <strong>Coeur Mining, Inc.</strong> (NYSE: CDE) announced that it would acquire New Gold in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $7 billion. It should be noted that the exchange ratio values NGD at $8.51 per share. Therefore, the current price represents roughly an 8% premium over implied value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，市场对 NGD 股票的乐观情绪受到一个不容忽视的细节的影响。今年 11 月，<strong>Coeur Mining, Inc.</strong> (NYSE: CDE) 宣布将以全股票交易收购 New Gold，交易价值约为 70 亿美元。需要注意的是，交换比例将 NGD 的每股价值定为 8.51 美元。因此，目前的价格大约比隐含价值高出 8%。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, some investors might view this as too rich a premium ahead of the anticipated closure of the deal, which may occur in the first half of next year, pending shareholder, court and regulatory approvals. However, what's important to keep in mind is implied volatility (IV). As a residual value backed out from actual traded prices — which themselves stem from real money order flows — IV offers a big clue to the expected dispersion of the target security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，一些投资者可能会认为，在预计交易完成之前，这个溢价过高，交易预计将在明年上半年完成，需待股东、法院和监管机构的批准。然而，重要的是要记住隐含波动率（IV）。作为从实际交易价格中反推的残余价值——这些价格本身源于真实的资金订单流——IV 提供了目标证券预期分散的一个重要线索。</p>
</div><p>For the February earnings disclosure, expected move calculators are anticipating a 19.1% move in either direction for NGD stock. Now, we just need to narrow down the possible outcomes to make a trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2 月的财报披露，预期变动计算器预计 NGD 股票将向任一方向波动 19.1%。现在，我们只需缩小可能的结果以进行交易。</p>
</div><h2>Exposing The Risk Geometry Of NGD Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>揭示 NGD 股票的风险几何</h2>
</div><p>To be clear, expected move calculators are useful because they provide an expected dispersion based on real speculative and hedging activities of options traders. However, dispersion does not equate to probability. By plugging the IV into the Black-Scholes formula, you can reverse engineer the expected <em>scale</em> of price movement. However, it does not tell you which outcomes are more likely to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明确来说，预期变动计算器是有用的，因为它们提供了基于期权交易者实际投机和对冲活动的预期分散。然而，分散并不等同于概率。通过将 IV 插入 Black-Scholes 公式，您可以反向推导出预期的价格变动_规模_。然而，它并不能告诉您哪些结果更可能实现。</p>
</div><p>Now, there is a &#34;probability of profit&#34; metric that is also derived from Black-Scholes. However, this is not a &#34;real&#34; probability because Black-Scholes uses a mathematical formula that assumes (forces) a risk-neutral paradigm. But because the stock market is one of the most complex environments ever encountered, this assumption of risk neutrality cannot be assumed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，有一个 “盈利概率” 指标也是从 Black-Scholes 推导出来的。然而，这并不是一个 “真实” 的概率，因为 Black-Scholes 使用的数学公式假设（强制）风险中立的范式。但由于股票市场是遇到的最复杂的环境之一，这种风险中立的假设不能被假定。</p>
</div><p>In order to find the likelihood of outcomes, we must develop a non-parametric distributional model. For example, if we took a single 10-week strand of NGD stock, the return during this period won't tell us anything about the performance probability of the other weeks in the dataset. However, if we stacked hundreds of rolling 10-week sequences in a fixed-time distribution, the most frequent behaviors would create a bulge in probability mass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了找到结果的可能性，我们必须开发一个非参数分布模型。例如，如果我们取一段 NGD 股票的单一 10 周数据，这段时间的回报不会告诉我们数据集中其他周的表现概率。然而，如果我们在固定时间分布中堆叠数百个滚动的 10 周序列，最频繁的行为将形成概率质量的隆起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153331/NGD-stock-distributions.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153331/NGD-stock-distributions.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>This bulge is risk geometry, which shows the accelerative emotions of buyer sentiment. More importantly, it also shows the transition where buyers are tempted to become sellers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个隆起就是风险几何，它显示了买方情绪的加速情感。更重要的是，它还显示了买方被诱惑成为卖方的转变。</p>
</div><p>Using this hierarchical framework, the forward 10-week returns of NGD stock can be arranged as a distributional curve, with outcomes ranging between $8.80 and $10 (assuming an anchor price of $9.16). Further, price clustering would likely occur around $9.30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利用这个分层框架，NGD 股票的未来 10 周回报可以排列成一个分布曲线，结果范围在 8.80 美元到 10 美元之间（假设锚定价格为 9.16 美元）。此外，价格聚集可能会发生在 9.30 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>The above assessment aggregates rolling trials since January 2019. However, we're interested in isolating for the current quant signal, which is the rare 4-6-U sequence. In the past 10 weeks, NGD stock printed only four up weeks, yet the overall slope trended upward. This dynamic tells us that even though the bears numerically outnumbered the bulls, the price kept moving higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上述评估汇总了自 2019 年 1 月以来的滚动试验。然而，我们希望隔离当前的量化信号，即罕见的 4-6-U 序列。在过去的 10 周中，NGD 股票仅出现了四周上涨，但整体趋势向上。这一动态告诉我们，尽管空头在数量上超过了多头，但价格仍在上涨。</p>
</div><p>Under this scenario, prices would be expected to range between $7.80 and $12.40, which is quite similar to the expected dispersion calculated from IV. However, we also know that probability density would be thickest at around $10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，价格预计将在 7.80 美元到 12.40 美元之间波动，这与从 IV 计算得出的预期分散非常相似。然而，我们也知道概率密度在 10 美元附近最为密集。</p>
</div><h2>Going For The Big Trade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>追求大交易</h2>
</div><p>Based on the market intelligence above, the smart move may seem to be to target the $10 strike price. Indeed, the 9/10 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026, allows you to do just that. If NGD stock rises through the second-leg strike ($10) at expiration, the maximum payout only be about 43%. That's not the greatest reward that you can extract from the options market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于上述市场情报，明智的举动似乎是瞄准 10 美元的行权价。实际上，2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 9/10 牛市看涨期权差价允许您这样做。如果 NGD 股票在到期时突破第二个行权价（10 美元），最大回报仅约为 43%。这并不是您可以从期权市场中提取的最佳回报。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153302/NGD-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/22153302/NGD-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>Moreover, because of the highly anticipated earnings disclosure — combined with precious metals momentum heading into the new year — there's a possibility that NGD stock can outperform its usual baseline behavioral state. That's what IV is indicating and more importantly, the 4-6-U quant signal justifies a more bullish posture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由于备受期待的财报披露——加上贵金属在新年初的势头——NGD 股票有可能超越其通常的基线行为状态。这正是 IV 所指示的，更重要的是，4-6-U 量化信号证明了更乐观的立场。</p>
</div><p>As such, I would take a long look at the 9/11 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. This trade requires NGD stock to rise through $11 at expiration, which is an ambitious target. However, doing so would extract a maximum payout of roughly 111%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我会仔细考虑 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 9/11 牛市看涨期权差价。该交易要求 NGD 股票在到期时突破 11 美元，这是一个雄心勃勃的目标。然而，做到这一点将提取大约 111% 的最大回报。</p>
</div><p>Plus, the breakeven price lands at $9.95, which sits right on the thickest part of probability density. Therefore, you would have a solid chance of not losing money while stretching for a big payout. In other words, this trade helps maximize profitability potential while limiting opportunity costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，盈亏平衡价格为 9.95 美元，正好位于概率密度最厚的部分。因此，您将有很好的机会不亏损，同时追求大额回报。换句话说，这笔交易有助于最大化盈利潜力，同时限制机会成本。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文所提供信息的准确性或可靠性不承担任何责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>下一篇：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Here’s How To Precisely Trade The ‘Obvious’ ServiceNow Comeback Narrative</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：如何精准交易 ‘显而易见’ 的 ServiceNow 反弹叙事</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

期权角：为什么 New GLD 的期权市场在看涨地违背并购剧本