<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg/query-dj0zYmJmNDVkNGJh?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg/query-dj0zYmJmNDVkNGJh"/></p>
<p><em>来源</em></p>
<p>在我收起键盘迎接假期之前，我认为展望未来，看看历史周期对明年股市的展望可能是个好主意。</p>
<p>是的，确实如此，投资者在进入 2026 年时有很多因素需要考虑，比如盈利前景、经济状况（以及分化的消费者）、美联储的预期、通货膨胀水平，以及当然，还有关于人工智能交易的辩论（泡沫与革命）。然而，如果我没记错的话，每年年初通常都会有类似的说法。</p>
<p>正因如此，我喜欢在每个新的一年开始时对未来有一些预期。需要明确的是，我并不是根据周期、直觉、我的展望，甚至是月相来投资。但我发现，查看历史周期的表现往往能为未来一年提供一个不错的路线图。</p>
<p>虽然我必须承认我的水晶球仍在修理中，市场常常受到不可预见事件的影响——如地缘政治、政治政策、经济意外，甚至泡沫破裂——但历史周期分析多年来证明是一个有用的指南。</p>
<p>正如我过去提到的，有时这项工作非常准确，有时则不然。但作为框架未来一年展望的概念输入，我发现这是一个值得进行的练习。</p>
<p>长期读者知道，标准普尔 500 周期复合指数是 Ned Davis Research Group 的作品，融合了三个关键的历史模式：一年季节性周期（捕捉典型的年内趋势）、四年总统选举周期（反映政治活动的趋势）和十年周期（突出基于十年的节奏）。该复合指数平均了 1928 年至 2024 年的每日数据，以预测 2026 年标准普尔 500 的 “典型” 路径。</p>
<p>正如我写过的那样，关键在于，尽管无法预测市场在 Ms. Market 的游戏中会发生什么（以及何时发生），但周期复合指数通常非常擅长暗示未来几个月可能会发生的事情。</p>
<p>例如，2025 年绝对不是一个普通年份，市场在至少几次情况下显著偏离了周期预测。回顾一下，最初是由于 “解放日” 和随之而来的关税恐慌，市场在历史预测的反弹时却下跌。然后，市场在传统的疲软秋季期间反弹。这两者都与市场的历史趋势不符。</p>
<p>但随着一切几乎尘埃落定，我注意到标准普尔 500 指数与周期复合指数预测的年末水平非常接近。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png"/></p>
<p>版权归 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有权利</p>
<p>使用此分析时需要理解的重要一点是，虽然市场确实有时会走自己的路，忽视周期影响，但股票往往会回归历史趋势所指示的趋势。</p>
<p>正因如此，我喜欢在每个日历年开始时回顾周期复合指数——然后每周检查一次，看看情况如何。</p>
<p>那么，事不宜迟，让我们看看周期对 2026 年的预测。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png"/></p>
<p>版权归 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有权利</p>
<p>以下是我对 2026 年周期复合指数对新年的建议的总结：</p>
<p><strong>年初强劲开局（第一季度反弹）：</strong> 复合指数在 2026 年以积极的态势开局，指数从 1 月初开始稳步上升。这为 2 月下旬或 3 月初的显著高峰积累了动能，图表上的第一个黄色圆圈突显了这一点。从历史上看，这与假期后的乐观情绪相符，且总统任期的第二年通常会带有前一年动能的残余积极性。</p>
<p><strong>春季回调和波动性：</strong> 在早期高峰之后，4 月出现相当明显的下降，直到春季中期触底。然后线条在 5 月略微反弹，但在夏季（6 月至 8 月）进入波动期。这里会有一些小的起伏——没有明确的方向偏向，反映出第二年周期中典型的年中不确定性。</p>
<p><strong>秋季疲软和关键低点（第三季度/第四季度过渡）：</strong> 最明显的下行趋势出现在夏末和初秋，稳定下降导致在 10 月初至中旬出现显著低谷，标志着第二个黄色圆圈。这个低点接近或略低于基线，暗示可能会出现重大修正。在中期选举年（2026 年正是如此）的背景下，这可能与政治噪音加剧、政策辩论或季节性抛售压力相关，这通常是总统周期较弱阶段的特征。</p>
<p><strong>年末复苏和积极收官：</strong> 从 10 月低点开始，复合指数预测强劲反弹，指数在 11 月和 12 月急剧上涨，以高点结束这一年。整体预测结束时较高，表明如果历史重演，年度回报将适度积极——尽管远不及强周期年所见的巨大收益。</p>
<p>从总统周期的角度来看，2026 年属于任期的第二年，这在历史上通常是四个年份中最软的一年，常常伴随着修正甚至熊市，尤其是在中期选举和政策调整期间。尽管如此，综合指数的整体上升趋势表明了韧性，净结果显示尽管年中面临挑战，全年仍有收益。</p>
<p>因此，我进入 2026 年的计划是从大局出发，给予多头一定的信任。然而，周期综合指数表明我需要（a）控制我的热情，并且（b）准备应对显著的弱势。因此，这似乎不是放弃战术性、风险管理方法的时机。</p>
<p>最后，让我们记住，周期综合指数是一个历史平均值，显然并不能保证任何事情。可以肯定的是，现实世界的事件可以并且常常会打乱即使是最一致的历史/季节性模式。然而，正如长期读者所知，周期综合指数往往相对准确。因此，我喜欢将其作为我们市场分析中的一个拼图部分。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
<p>人工智能交易的现状</p>
<p>风向的变化</p>
<p>伟大的轮换？还是...</p>

<p>本文分析了历史周期，以预测 2026 年的股市前景。它强调了第一季度的强劲开局、春季的回调、夏季的波动以及初秋的显著低谷。标准普尔 500 周期综合指数结合了季节性、总统周期和十年周期，尽管存在不可预见的事件，但仍可作为指导。分析表明，可能会出现与中期选举年政治噪音相关的修正</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg/query-dj0zYmJmNDVkNGJh" alt="" original-src="https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg?v=3bbf45d4ba"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源</em></p>
</div><p>Before I put away the keyboard for the Holiday Season, I thought it might be a good idea to look ahead and see what the historical cycles have to say about the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我收起键盘迎接假期之前，我认为展望未来，看看历史周期对明年股市的展望可能是个好主意。</p>
</div><p>Yes, it is certainly true that investors have a lot to consider as we head into 2026 such as the outlook for earnings, the state of the economy (and the bifurcated consumer), Fed expectations, the level of inflation, and of course, the AI trade debate (bubble vs revolution). However, if memory serves, something similar can usually be said at the beginning of each and every year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，确实如此，投资者在进入 2026 年时有很多因素需要考虑，比如盈利前景、经济状况（以及分化的消费者）、美联储的预期、通货膨胀水平，以及当然，还有关于人工智能交易的辩论（泡沫与革命）。然而，如果我没记错的话，每年年初通常都会有类似的说法。</p>
</div><p>It is for this reason that I like to go into each new calendar year having some sort of idea about what to expect going forward. To be clear, I do NOT invest according to the cycles, gut hunches, my outlook, or even the stages of the moon. But I have found that looking at what the historical cycles look like can oftentimes provide a decent roadmap for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，我喜欢在每个新的一年开始时对未来有一些预期。需要明确的是，我并不是根据周期、直觉、我的展望，甚至是月相来投资。但我发现，查看历史周期的表现往往能为未来一年提供一个不错的路线图。</p>
</div><p>While I must admit that my crystal ball remains in the shop and markets are often influenced by unforeseen events – like geopolitics, political policy, economic surprises, and/or even bubbles bursting – historical cycle analysis has proven to be a useful guide over the years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我必须承认我的水晶球仍在修理中，市场常常受到不可预见事件的影响——如地缘政治、政治政策、经济意外，甚至泡沫破裂——但历史周期分析多年来证明是一个有用的指南。</p>
</div><p>As I've mentioned in the past, sometimes this work is eerily accurate, other times, not so much. But as a conceptual input for framing the outlook for the coming year, I find it is an exercise worth doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我过去提到的，有时这项工作非常准确，有时则不然。但作为框架未来一年展望的概念输入，我发现这是一个值得进行的练习。</p>
</div><p>Long-time readers know that the S&amp;P 500 Cycle Composite is the work of Ned Davis Research Group and is a blend of three key historical patterns: the one-year seasonal cycle (capturing typical intra-year trends), the four-year Presidential election cycle (reflecting tendencies around political activities), and the ten-year decennial cycle (highlighting decade-based rhythms). This composite averages daily data from 1928 through 2024 to project a &#34;typical&#34; path for the S&amp;P 500 in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期读者知道，标准普尔 500 周期复合指数是 Ned Davis Research Group 的作品，融合了三个关键的历史模式：一年季节性周期（捕捉典型的年内趋势）、四年总统选举周期（反映政治活动的趋势）和十年周期（突出基于十年的节奏）。该复合指数平均了 1928 年至 2024 年的每日数据，以预测 2026 年标准普尔 500 的 “典型” 路径。</p>
</div><p>As I've written a time or twenty, the key here is although it is impossible to predict what will happen (and/or when) in Ms. Market's game, the Cycle Composite is often very good at hinting at what might be coming round the bend in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我写过的那样，关键在于，尽管无法预测市场在 Ms. Market 的游戏中会发生什么（以及何时发生），但周期复合指数通常非常擅长暗示未来几个月可能会发生的事情。</p>
</div><p>For example, 2025 was definitely not your average year and the markets strayed from the cycle projections significantly at least a couple times. To review, first things were upended early by &#34;Liberation Day&#34; and the ensuing tariff fears – thus the market dove when history projected a rally. Then the market rallied during the traditionally weak fall period. Neither of which were in sync with the market's historical tendencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，2025 年绝对不是一个普通年份，市场在至少几次情况下显著偏离了周期预测。回顾一下，最初是由于 “解放日” 和随之而来的关税恐慌，市场在历史预测的反弹时却下跌。然后，市场在传统的疲软秋季期间反弹。这两者都与市场的历史趋势不符。</p>
</div><p>But with everything now almost said and done, I note that the S&amp;P 500 is pretty darn close to where the Cycle Composite projected it to be near the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着一切几乎尘埃落定，我注意到标准普尔 500 指数与周期复合指数预测的年末水平非常接近。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png" alt="" original-src="https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png"/></p>
<p>Copyright Ned Davis Research Group, All Rights Reserved</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>版权归 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有权利</p>
</div><p>The important thing to understand about using this analysis is while there are definitely times when the market goes its own way and ignores cycle influences, stocks often return to the trend indicated by history's trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用此分析时需要理解的重要一点是，虽然市场确实有时会走自己的路，忽视周期影响，但股票往往会回归历史趋势所指示的趋势。</p>
</div><p>It is for this reason that I like to review the Cycle Composite at the beginning of each calendar year – and then check in on a weekly basis to see how things are going.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，我喜欢在每个日历年开始时回顾周期复合指数——然后每周检查一次，看看情况如何。</p>
</div><p>So, without further ado, let's look at what the Cycles say about 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，事不宜迟，让我们看看周期对 2026 年的预测。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png"/></p>
<p>Copyright Ned Davis Research Group, All Rights Reserved</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>版权归 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有权利</p>
</div><p>Here's my summary of what the 2026 Cycle Composite suggests about the new year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我对 2026 年周期复合指数对新年的建议的总结：</p>
</div><p><strong>Strong Start to the Year (Q1 Rally):</strong> The composite kicks off 2026 on a positive note, with the index showing a steady climb from early January. This builds momentum into a notable peak around late February or early March, highlighted by the first yellow circle on the chart. Historically, this aligns with post-holiday optimism and the second year of a presidential term often starting with some residual positivity from the prior year's momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>年初强劲开局（第一季度反弹）：</strong> 复合指数在 2026 年以积极的态势开局，指数从 1 月初开始稳步上升。这为 2 月下旬或 3 月初的显著高峰积累了动能，图表上的第一个黄色圆圈突显了这一点。从历史上看，这与假期后的乐观情绪相符，且总统任期的第二年通常会带有前一年动能的残余积极性。</p>
</div><p><strong>Spring Pullback and Choppiness:</strong> Following the early peak, there's a fairly sharp decline through April, bottoming out around mid-spring. The line then rebounds modestly into May but enters a period of volatility through the summer months (June to August). Expect wiggles here—some minor ups and downs—without a clear directional bias, reflecting typical mid-year uncertainty in year-two cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>春季回调和波动性：</strong> 在早期高峰之后，4 月出现相当明显的下降，直到春季中期触底。然后线条在 5 月略微反弹，但在夏季（6 月至 8 月）进入波动期。这里会有一些小的起伏——没有明确的方向偏向，反映出第二年周期中典型的年中不确定性。</p>
</div><p><strong>Fall Weakness and Key Low (Q3/Q4 Transition):</strong> The most pronounced downside appears in the late summer and early fall, with a steady decline leading to a significant trough around early to mid-October, marked by the second yellow circle. This low point dips near or slightly below the baseline, suggesting potential for a meaningful correction. In the context of mid-term election years (2026 being one), this could tie into heightened political noise, policy debates, or seasonal selling pressure that often characterizes the weaker phase of the presidential cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>秋季疲软和关键低点（第三季度/第四季度过渡）：</strong> 最明显的下行趋势出现在夏末和初秋，稳定下降导致在 10 月初至中旬出现显著低谷，标志着第二个黄色圆圈。这个低点接近或略低于基线，暗示可能会出现重大修正。在中期选举年（2026 年正是如此）的背景下，这可能与政治噪音加剧、政策辩论或季节性抛售压力相关，这通常是总统周期较弱阶段的特征。</p>
</div><p><strong>Year-End Recovery and Positive Finish:</strong> From the October low, the composite projects a strong rebound, with the index rallying sharply through November and December to close the year on a high note. The overall projection ends higher, indicating a modestly positive annual return if history rhymes—though far from the blockbuster gains seen in stronger cycle years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>年末复苏和积极收官：</strong> 从 10 月低点开始，复合指数预测强劲反弹，指数在 11 月和 12 月急剧上涨，以高点结束这一年。整体预测结束时较高，表明如果历史重演，年度回报将适度积极——尽管远不及强周期年所见的巨大收益。</p>
</div><p>In presidential cycle terms, 2026 falls into the second year of the term, which has historically been the softest of the four, often featuring corrections or even bear markets amid mid-term elections and policy adjustments. That said, the composite's overall upward trajectory suggests resilience, with the net result showing gains for the year despite the mid-year hurdles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从总统周期的角度来看，2026 年属于任期的第二年，这在历史上通常是四个年份中最软的一年，常常伴随着修正甚至熊市，尤其是在中期选举和政策调整期间。尽管如此，综合指数的整体上升趋势表明了韧性，净结果显示尽管年中面临挑战，全年仍有收益。</p>
</div><p>As such, my plan entering 2026 is to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt from a big-picture perspective. However, the Cycle Composite suggests that I (a) keep my enthusiasm in check and (b) be ready for meaningful weakness. Therefore, this does not appear to be the time to abandon a tactical, risk managed approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我进入 2026 年的计划是从大局出发，给予多头一定的信任。然而，周期综合指数表明我需要（a）控制我的热情，并且（b）准备应对显著的弱势。因此，这似乎不是放弃战术性、风险管理方法的时机。</p>
</div><p>Finally, let's remember that the Cycle Composite is a historical average and clearly not a guarantee of anything. To be sure, real-world events can and often do derail even the most consistent historical/seasonal patterns. However, as long-time readers know, the Cycle Composite tends to be fairly accurate more often than not. As such, I like to use this as one piece of the puzzle in our market analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，让我们记住，周期综合指数是一个历史平均值，显然并不能保证任何事情。可以肯定的是，现实世界的事件可以并且常常会打乱即使是最一致的历史/季节性模式。然而，正如长期读者所知，周期综合指数往往相对准确。因此，我喜欢将其作为我们市场分析中的一个拼图部分。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
</div><p>The State Of The AI Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能交易的现状</p>
</div><p>Shifting Winds</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风向的变化</p>
</div><p>The Great Rotation? Or...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伟大的轮换？还是...</p>
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