<p>比特币最近的反弹看似是恢复力量的迹象，但价格走势却讲述了一个更具误导性的故事。由于下行流动性仍然稀薄且支撑位保持坚挺，市场似乎准备好进行一次吸引急于入场的多头的动作，而不是奖励他们。这次反弹可能更多是为了在情绪转变时制造最大痛苦的舞台，而不是恢复。</p>
<p><strong>对中长期比特币前景的对齐</strong></p>
<p>在一次深入的技术和心理分析中，华尔街先生解释说，他对比特币的整体看法在一周前已经明确，之前对他的中长期立场有些困惑。随着这些时间范围现在被清晰界定，他将注意力转向短期图景，概述当前市场行为。</p>
<p>他重申，尽管他对比特币的中期偏见仍然看跌，但短期结构已转为看涨。原因在于下行流动性不足，无法证明市场制造商启动下一轮大幅下跌的合理性。这种不平衡支持了短期向上的反弹。</p>
<p>因此，华尔街先生在$80,000 到$84,000 之间的价值区域低点附近建立了多头头寸，这可能后来演变为一个多头陷阱。随后，比特币下跌并成功重新测试了$84,000 的水平，这与每周 MA100 相符，经过几次误导性的向上移动。</p>
<p>因此，他的多头订单按计划被执行，持有的头寸从$84,550 开始。分析师指出，他计划仅在$98,000–$104,000 区域退出，在那里公允价值缺口与大量流动性汇聚，使其成为理想的获利区域。</p>
<p><strong>持有多头头寸并不改变宏观看跌的论点</strong></p>
<p>华尔街先生澄清，持有多头头寸并不意味着比特币的看涨转变。整体前景仍然看跌，预计下一轮主要下行将朝向$64,000–$70,000 区域。在短期内，比特币处于强支撑位，而下行流动性有限，这降低了立即继续下行的概率。</p>
<p>一个更合理的情景是市场制造商操控一次看涨的移动，以吸引零售参与。当后期买家进入多头头寸时，他们逐渐成为退出流动性，为一旦建立足够流动性后进行更大幅度的下行移动铺平道路。</p>
<p>他还提到，$68,000–$74,000 区域已被过于广泛地预期，无法作为真正的 “最大痛苦” 区域来重置市场结构。因此，下行目标被下调至$64,000–$70,000 范围，预计该区域可能在 2026 年第一季度末或第二季度初达到。这个水平代表了一个初步的主要目标，而不是最终底部。</p>
<p>最近的价格走势被强调为这些动态的明确例子。比特币从$87,000 迅速移动到$90,000，随后在几小时内急剧下跌至$85,000，导致广泛的清算。许多交易者追逐上涨，迅速被困，而在建立流动性以进行更大幅度下行之前，双向的虚假移动可能会继续。</p>

BLSH

<p>比特币最近的价格反弹被视为一种误导，可能形成牛市陷阱。分析师 Mr. Wall Street 维持中期看空的观点，但承认由于下行流动性有限，短期内呈现看涨结构。他在 80,000 美元到 84,000 美元之间建立了多头头寸，计划在 98,000 美元到 104,000 美元区间退出。尽管持有多头头寸，他预计到 2026 年初将出现大幅下跌，目标价位在 64,000 美元到 70,000 美元之间。最近的价格走势突显了市场动态，随着流动性为更大幅度的下跌积累，假动作可能会频繁出现</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s recent bounce may look like a sign of renewed strength, but the price action tells a more deceptive story. With downside liquidity still thin and support holding firm, the market appears primed for a move that draws in eager bulls rather than rewarding them. This rally could be less about recovery and more about setting the stage for maximum pain when sentiment flips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币最近的反弹看似是恢复力量的迹象，但价格走势却讲述了一个更具误导性的故事。由于下行流动性仍然稀薄且支撑位保持坚挺，市场似乎准备好进行一次吸引急于入场的多头的动作，而不是奖励他们。这次反弹可能更多是为了在情绪转变时制造最大痛苦的舞台，而不是恢复。</p>
</div><p><strong>Aligning The Mid- And Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>对中长期比特币前景的对齐</strong></p>
</div><p>During an in-depth technical and psychological analysis, Mr. Wall Street explained that his broader outlook on Bitcoin had already been clarified a week earlier, after some confusion around his mid and long-term stance. With those time horizons now clearly defined, he turned his focus to the short-term picture, outlining current market behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一次深入的技术和心理分析中，华尔街先生解释说，他对比特币的整体看法在一周前已经明确，之前对他的中长期立场有些困惑。随着这些时间范围现在被清晰界定，他将注意力转向短期图景，概述当前市场行为。</p>
</div><p>He reiterated that while his mid-term bias on Bitcoin remains bearish, the short-term structure has turned bullish. The reason centered on insufficient downside liquidity to justify market makers initiating the next major leg lower. This imbalance supported the case for a temporary relief move to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他重申，尽管他对比特币的中期偏见仍然看跌，但短期结构已转为看涨。原因在于下行流动性不足，无法证明市场制造商启动下一轮大幅下跌的合理性。这种不平衡支持了短期向上的反弹。</p>
</div><p>Thus, Mr. Wall Street placed long positions around the Value Area Low between $80,000 and $84,000 on a bounce that could later evolve into a bull trap. Shortly after, Bitcoin dipped and successfully retested the $84,000 level, which aligns with the weekly MA100, following several deceptive upside moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，华尔街先生在$80,000 到$84,000 之间的价值区域低点附近建立了多头头寸，这可能后来演变为一个多头陷阱。随后，比特币下跌并成功重新测试了$84,000 的水平，这与每周 MA100 相符，经过几次误导性的向上移动。</p>
</div><p>As a result, his long orders were filled as planned, leaving him holding a position from $84,550. The analyst noted that he plans to exit only in the $98,000–$104,000 zone, where a Fair Value Gap converges with heavy liquidity, making it an ideal area to take profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，他的多头订单按计划被执行，持有的头寸从$84,550 开始。分析师指出，他计划仅在$98,000–$104,000 区域退出，在那里公允价值缺口与大量流动性汇聚，使其成为理想的获利区域。</p>
</div><p><strong>Being In Longs Doesn’t Change The Macro Bearish Thesis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>持有多头头寸并不改变宏观看跌的论点</strong></p>
</div><p>Mr. Wall Street clarified that holding long positions does not signal a bullish shift on Bitcoin. The broader outlook remains bearish, with expectations for the next major downside move toward the $64,000–$70,000 region. In the short term, Bitcoin is sitting at strong support while downside liquidity is limited, which reduces the probability of an immediate continuation lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街先生澄清，持有多头头寸并不意味着比特币的看涨转变。整体前景仍然看跌，预计下一轮主要下行将朝向$64,000–$70,000 区域。在短期内，比特币处于强支撑位，而下行流动性有限，这降低了立即继续下行的概率。</p>
</div><p>A more logical scenario involves market makers engineering a bullish move to attract retail participation. As late buyers enter long positions, they gradually become exit liquidity, setting the stage for a larger downside move once sufficient liquidity is built.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个更合理的情景是市场制造商操控一次看涨的移动，以吸引零售参与。当后期买家进入多头头寸时，他们逐渐成为退出流动性，为一旦建立足够流动性后进行更大幅度的下行移动铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>He also mentioned the $68,000–$74,000 zone had become too widely anticipated to function as a true “maximum pain” area capable of resetting market structure. For that reason, the downside target was revised lower to the $64,000–$70,000 range, with expectations that this zone could be reached in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2026. This level represents an initial major target rather than the final bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还提到，$68,000–$74,000 区域已被过于广泛地预期，无法作为真正的 “最大痛苦” 区域来重置市场结构。因此，下行目标被下调至$64,000–$70,000 范围，预计该区域可能在 2026 年第一季度末或第二季度初达到。这个水平代表了一个初步的主要目标，而不是最终底部。</p>
</div><p>Recent price action was highlighted as a clear example of these dynamics. Bitcoin’s rapid move from $87,000 to $90,000, followed by a sharp drop to $85,000 within hours, resulted in widespread liquidations. Many traders chased the upside and were quickly trapped, and fake moves in both directions are likely to continue as liquidity is built ahead of a larger move lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的价格走势被强调为这些动态的明确例子。比特币从$87,000 迅速移动到$90,000，随后在几小时内急剧下跌至$85,000，导致广泛的清算。许多交易者追逐上涨，迅速被困，而在建立流动性以进行更大幅度下行之前，双向的虚假移动可能会继续。</p>
</div>

为什么这次比特币反弹被设计成最具杀伤力的原因