<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png"/></p>
<p>日本 yen 连续第二天反弹，投资者对美联储与日本银行（BoJ）之间持续的分歧作出反应。美元/日元汇率回落至 156.30，较年初至今的高点 157.83 大幅下跌。它还形成了一个风险图表模式，暗示短期内可能进一步下跌。</p>
<h2>美元/日元技术分析显示回撤</h2>
<p>日线图表显示，美元/日元汇率在过去两天连续回撤。这一回撤发生在该货币对在 157.83 形成双顶模式，颈线位于 154.37 之后。</p>
<p>双顶模式是技术分析中最常见的看跌反转图表模式之一。</p>
<p>仔细观察显示，该货币对形成了看跌背离模式，因为 MACD 和相对强弱指数（RSI）持续向下移动。看跌背离发生在货币对处于上升趋势时，这些振荡器却下跌。</p>
<p>因此，双顶模式与看跌背离的结合意味着美元/日元货币对将继续下跌，下一个关键目标位于 154.45，即该模式的颈线。若价格跌破该水平，将指向更大的下行空间，可能会触及心理关口 150。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="579" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元/日元图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<h2>日本银行与美联储的分歧</h2>
<p>在日本财政部长片山聪子表示政府准备采取大胆行动以应对与基本面不符的情况后，日元连续第二天上涨。</p>
<p>他的声明是在日本银行（BoJ）发布符合预期的利率决定几天后作出的。</p>
<p>该银行将利率提高了 0.25%，并给出了温和的前瞻指引，分析师预计该银行明年将进行一到两次加息。这是因为过去几个月通胀保持在较高水平。周五发布的一份报告显示，通胀上升至 3.0%。</p>
<p>日本银行采取了其他鹰派政策，推动债券收益率达到多年来的最高水平。例如，它正在考虑出售价值超过 5000 亿美元的 ETF，并已结束量化紧缩政策。</p>
<p>美联储采取了相反的做法，采取了鸽派基调。本月第三次连续会议上降息，一些美联储官员暗示未来会议可能会进一步降息。</p>
<p>周一，州长斯蒂芬·米兰警告称，美联储在不降息的情况下面临衰退风险。他表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“失业率可能已经超过人们预期的水平。因此，我们有数据应该推动人们朝鸽派方向发展。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>最新数据显示，11 月份失业率上升至 4.6%，反映出接受唐纳德·特朗普提前退休提议的政府员工人数增加。另一份报告显示，美国 11 月份通胀降温。</p>
<p>然而，纽约联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·威廉姆斯警告称，目前没有再次降息的紧迫性，建议继续保持暂停。</p>
<p>展望未来，美国将在周二晚些时候发布一些重要数据。可能影响美元/日元汇率的关键数据包括即将发布的美国消费者信心报告、GDP、工业和制造业数据。</p>
<p>这篇文章《美元/日元预测：为什么今天日元飙升》最初出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>由于美联储与日本银行之间的分歧，日元正在飙升。美元/日元汇率从 157.83 的高点跌至 156.30，受到双顶形态和看跌背离的影响。日本财政部长表示准备采取大胆行动，而日本银行在高通胀的背景下加息。美联储的鸽派立场形成对比，近期降息并发出衰退警告。即将发布的美国经济数据可能进一步影响汇率</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png"/></p>
<p>The Japanese yen rebounded for the second consecutive day as investors reacted to the ongoing divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The USD/JPY exchange rate retreated to a low of 156.30, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 157.83. It has also formed a risky chart pattern pointing to more downside in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本 yen 连续第二天反弹，投资者对美联储与日本银行（BoJ）之间持续的分歧作出反应。美元/日元汇率回落至 156.30，较年初至今的高点 157.83 大幅下跌。它还形成了一个风险图表模式，暗示短期内可能进一步下跌。</p>
</div><h2>USD/JPY technical analysis points to a retreat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元技术分析显示回撤</h2>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has pulled back in the past two consecutive days. This retreat happened after the pair formed a double-top pattern at 157.83 with a neckline at 154.37.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图表显示，美元/日元汇率在过去两天连续回撤。这一回撤发生在该货币对在 157.83 形成双顶模式，颈线位于 154.37 之后。</p>
</div><p>A double-top pattern is one of the most common bearish reversal chart patterns in technical analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>双顶模式是技术分析中最常见的看跌反转图表模式之一。</p>
</div><p>A closer look shows that the pair has formed a bearish divergence pattern as the MACDA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to move downwards. A bearish divergence happens when these oscillators drop when a currency pair is in an uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仔细观察显示，该货币对形成了看跌背离模式，因为 MACD 和相对强弱指数（RSI）持续向下移动。看跌背离发生在货币对处于上升趋势时，这些振荡器却下跌。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, a combination of a double-top pattern and a bearish divergence means that the USD/JPY pair will continue falling, with the next key target being at 154.45, the neckline of this pattern. A move below that price will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level at 150.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，双顶模式与看跌背离的结合意味着美元/日元货币对将继续下跌，下一个关键目标位于 154.45，即该模式的颈线。若价格跌破该水平，将指向更大的下行空间，可能会触及心理关口 150。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>USD/JPY chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元/日元图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>BoJ and Fes divergence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本银行与美联储的分歧</h2>
</div><p>The Japanese yen rose for the second consecutive day after Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, said that the government was prepared to take bold actions if it moves out of line with its fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本财政部长片山聪子表示政府准备采取大胆行动以应对与基本面不符的情况后，日元连续第二天上涨。</p>
</div><p>His statement came a few days after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered its interest rate decision, which was in line with expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的声明是在日本银行（BoJ）发布符合预期的利率决定几天后作出的。</p>
</div><p>The bank hiked interest rates by 0.25% and delivered a muted forward guidance, with analysts expecting the bank to deliver one or two hikes next year. It is doing that since inflation has remained at an elevated level in the past few months. A report released on Friday showed that inflation rose to 3.0%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行将利率提高了 0.25%，并给出了温和的前瞻指引，分析师预计该银行明年将进行一到两次加息。这是因为过去几个月通胀保持在较高水平。周五发布的一份报告显示，通胀上升至 3.0%。</p>
</div><p>The BoJ has taken other hawkish policies that have pushed bond yields to the highest level in years. For example, it is considering selling ETFs worth over $500 billion and had already ended its quantitative tightening policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行采取了其他鹰派政策，推动债券收益率达到多年来的最高水平。例如，它正在考虑出售价值超过 5000 亿美元的 ETF，并已结束量化紧缩政策。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve has taken the opposite approach as it embraced a dovish tone. It slashed interest rates for the third consecutive meeting this month and some Fed officials are hinting of more cuts in the coming meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储采取了相反的做法，采取了鸽派基调。本月第三次连续会议上降息，一些美联储官员暗示未来会议可能会进一步降息。</p>
</div><p>In a statement on Monday, Governor Stephen Miran warned that the Federal Reserve risked a recession without cutting interest rates. He said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，州长斯蒂芬·米兰警告称，美联储在不降息的情况下面临衰退风险。他表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The unemployment rate has poked up potentially above where people thought it was going to go. And so we’ve had data that should push people into a dovish direction.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“失业率可能已经超过人们预期的水平。因此，我们有数据应该推动人们朝鸽派方向发展。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The most recent data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, reflecting the number of government employees who took Donald Trump’s early retirement offers. Another report showed that US inflation cooledin November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新数据显示，11 月份失业率上升至 4.6%，反映出接受唐纳德·特朗普提前退休提议的政府员工人数增加。另一份报告显示，美国 11 月份通胀降温。</p>
</div><p>However, James Williams, the head of the New York Federal Reserve, warned that there was no urgency to cut interest rates again, recommending a continued pause.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，纽约联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·威廉姆斯警告称，目前没有再次降息的紧迫性，建议继续保持暂停。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, the US will publish some important data later on Tuesday. The key numbers to watch that may move the USD/JPY exchange rate will be the upcoming US consumer confidence report, GDP, industrial, and manufacturing numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，美国将在周二晚些时候发布一些重要数据。可能影响美元/日元汇率的关键数据包括即将发布的美国消费者信心报告、GDP、工业和制造业数据。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/JPY forecast: Here’s why the Japanese yen is soaring today appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章《美元/日元预测：为什么今天日元飙升》最初出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

美元兑日元预测：为什么日元今天大幅上涨